LTA's NBA Plays

[killersweet]

You know it....with my wife and 8 month year old son!

Have fun and let's hope for another sweep

[Donkeys2012]

Couple of big bodies out on the sixers hawks. Collins for ATL and Brand for Philly.

[JM92]

Couldn't get on the second play unfortunately, i'm feeling another sweep here!

BOL to all

[Donkeys2012]

Making 3's in INDY but missing dunks and layups so not a bad start.

[mikea33]

Holy shit atlanta sucks

[DirtyBird1500]

Not the 2nd quarter we needed out of Philly there...

[JM92]

18 points in the last 2 minutes!

[WhyTheFace]

I'm glad we back to talking about b-ball again.

Loving the picks today!
Feelings on the nugz v blazer?

Nice catch on yesterday's picks, keep it rolling on

[alamo]

Hawks starting to play some D

[Love The Action]

LOVE the Bulls tonight, but just can't pull the trigger at -5. That's about 1 point too much. I would pay -120 for -4. Oh well, good luck Bulls backers.

[SoxSide Irish]

I took bulls huge, Rose is putting on a show right now and this sounds like a Bulls home game.

[Catchn_Picks]

Funny LTA...just went through the same consideration. Was salivating over the -4 that I could not get...especially on the road for Chicago.

My final resolution was to make a "mental health bet" (a very small bet, just for fun so that if it wins I still can feel good about it and not get pissed off that I didn't have anything on it). If it loses, it won't mean much.

.20 of a unit seemed about right.

We all have to do what we have to do to mentally survive sometimes...lol.

[Catchn_Picks]

Orlando on a 152 pace...yea.

Need some luck with Atlanta...190 pace. Need some help.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Portland Trail Blazers (-1.5) 1Q

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/4/2012

Play #1

Sixers/Hawks under (180) 1x (Locked)

I wish I could have gotten 181, but my local opened at 180.5 last night when Pinny was juicing the under 181 at -121 and moved to 180 not too long ago. My other local opened this morning at 180 as well. I am locking this up now because I do not expect this one to go back up. I could be wrong, but I think we see under money come in pushing this one to 179 and a possible close of 178 or 178.5 despite what will end being a healthy majority of all bets on the over in the 65/35 range. This game sets up similarly to yesterday, but without the explosiveness of the Heat offense. Philly and Atlanta rank 21st and 18th respectively in points in the paint and both teams depend on their spot up offense. However, both teams' defenses are two of the best defenses in the league in spot up defense. Both Philly and Atlanta rank in the top 10 of DEFF, OFloor%, 3pt% and rate, OTS%, etc. In addition, both teams like to play a half-court game predicated on ball movement which eats up the clock. Both teams are in the bottom 12 of possessions per game and PACE. I expect a slow paced game tonight, especially when you consider that Philly played last night and has a tendency to slow down the PACE on b2b with a O/U record of 2-5 with no rest at an average total of 181. The refs are Brothers, Poole and Wall, which is a rather neutral crew for this matchup. Nonetheless, both teams are top 7 in OFT/FGA and bottom 10 in FT/FGA which means that they don't cause a lot of fouls on defense or draw a lot of fouls on offense. Consequently, I don't expect more than 40 FT attempts tonight. In the last game between these teams about 12 days ago, the game stayed way under. However, both teams shot around 42% and the pace was slow at 87.2. Therefore, I don't deem this a particularly bad shooting performance that the teams should bounce back from like we expect in other matchups. Instead, I think that boxscore is indicative of these two teams' style of play and is predictive of tonight's outcome. I have this game set at 177, giving us a full three points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #2

Magic/Pacers under (187.5) 1x (Locked)

This one started to move at 5d while Pinny was juicing the over 187 at -110. I jumped on the 187.5 as soon as 5D moved to 187 a few minutes ago. Pinny just dropped to -107 on the over at 187. This play will be won or lost on the 3 point shooting percentages of both teams. If the tired legs and defenses can't keep these guys from shooting for 37%, then we could be in trouble. However, I think the fatigue that both teams are facing will be manifested in rather poor 3 point shooting percentages under 37% tonight as neither team will have the lift that it takes to hit those shots. Both teams depend highly on that shot for their scoring and without it, we could see a slow paced low scoring game. With no rest, Orlando and Indy are a combined 4-9 o/u on b2b games and average 179 and 186 points respectively in that situation. Both teams already play a slow pace in general where Indy ranks 18th in PACE and Orland is 26th. These two teams played on Jan 29th, both coming in with one day rest and played to a 90.7 PACE with 3 point shooting percentages of 47% and 43%. Needless to say, that game went over and hit 191 points. However, 5 days before that game with Orlando on a b2b and Indy off an emotional hard fought win against the Lakers they played each other to a 88 PACE with three point shooting percentages of 40% and 27%. When you take into account that George Hill is out for the Pacers, this causes a bit of a fatigue problem for their backcourt with this being a b2b and 3 in 4. Orlando is in a similar spot without Jameer Nelson causing more playing time for Duhon in this b2b and 3 in 4 for Orlando. In this fatigue spots, both teams tend to play a half-court slow paced game and if the three pointers drop they score 95-100 and if they don't drop they score 88-90. With both teams having sold defense with a DEFF ranking of 6th for Indy and 14th for Orlando, I think we see both teams score in that 88-90 range rather than the 95-100 range. Both teams are adept at drawing fouls and avoiding fouls on defense, so the refs could play a major role tonight. The ref assignments are Collins, Fehr and Kogut. I don't view any of the three as a threat, with Collins and Fehr both having had some solid "under" seasons and all three of them having a low 40 foul per game lifetime average. All in all, I expect a PACE around 87 with both teams shooting under 37% from behind the arc and having an overall shooting percentage of around 44%. I have this game set at 183.5 giving us over 3 points in value which is good enough for me in this situation. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Warriors/Kings over (199) 1x (Locked)

This is the game I missed out on 198 earlier in the day and I really wish I was able to get that number. However, this line movement is very odd in this game and I'm going to preserve myself 1x on the over at 199. I may actually add to this play if I can get a better number later, as I have this as a rather strong rated play. One of the factors to this play that caught my attention was the reverse adjustment by the odds makers to the opening number. If you remember, on Tuesday, we played the over in this exact matchup when we waited to get 197 from an opener of 199 and beat the closer by a full point with Pinny juicing the over 198 at -107. Unfortunately, that game stayed well under only hitting 183 total points. Obviously, the books would make an adjust in favor of the under for this game right? Wrong, instead Pinny opened this game at 199.5, a half point more than the opener of the other game. In addition, whenever we have seen line movement on the under in this game, someone comes in and drives the price right back up. In this game, we have two teams that rank top 10 in PACE with incentive to play fast and motivated. Sacramento has Marcus Thornton back which should really energize that Sacramento offense because it allows them to have a consistent scoring threat while putting the Jimmer back on the bench where he belongs and only coming in when they need some three point shots. For the Warriors, Marc Jackson has challenged both Ellis and Curry to bring their A-game night in and night out and play with more offensive consistency. This will be their second game back after getting benched for much of the 4th quarter against the Kings when the team won late. They both played great in their last game since and I expect them to have a great game tonight. Both teams are brutal on defense with rankings in the bottom 10 in DEFF, Opponent Floor %, OTS% , OEFG%, etc. I just don't think either team has any incentive to play tough defense tonight and I expect them to run and gun. When playing rested like tonight, the Warriors are 8-3 o/u with an average total of 201, which tells me they are at their offensive peak when rested. I think the Kings have no problem playing a fast pace tonight and I expect them to have a better idea offensively after playing against this defense a few days ago. I have this game set at 202, which is one point more than I had this game a few days ago. I really think the addition of Thornton will be big for Sacramento and I expect this to be a very competitive game. I also lean to Sacramento to get the win here and am contemplating a play on the side as well. For now, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kings (-1) 1x (Locked)

Final play of the night will be on the Kings. Can't give you a full writeup, but I will say that I expect a strong effort from the Kings tonight in order to win two games in a row in front of their home fans. The Kings play a fast pace and are better than the Warriors at points in the paint, fast-break points, fast-break efficiency and offensive rebounding. Both teams are horrible defensively and expect the Kings to win in a shoot-out. The Kings are playing with revenge off a 3 point loss a few days ago and that loss will be fresh in their minds. Perhaps the biggest factor in support of this play is the return of Thornton to the starting lineup and Jimmer to the bench where he belongs. I have the Kings at -2.5 and I expect them to win this game by more than a couple. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Kings for 1x. Good luck.

[pacocn]

I follow this thread a bit, never post... But that's some gay shit right there... Lol either way, I hope u keep posting winners. Hair or no hair....

It was meant to get a laugh. Go Warriors/Kings Over

[Catchn_Picks]

Looks like GS Over for the winning night.

I think it is a good play.

[Catchn_Picks]

Play #4

Kings (-1) 1x (Locked)

Final play of the night will be on the Kings. Can't give you a full writeup, but I will say that I expect a strong effort from the Kings tonight in order to win two games in a row in front of their home fans. The Kings play a fast pace and are better than the Warriors at points in the paint, fast-break points, fast-break efficiency and offensive rebounding. Both teams are horrible defensively and expect the Kings to win in a shoot-out. The Kings are playing with revenge off a 3 point loss a few days ago and that loss will be fresh in their minds. Perhaps the biggest factor in support of this play is the return of Thornton to the starting lineup and Jimmer to the bench where he belongs. I have the Kings at -2.5 and I expect them to win this game by more than a couple. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Kings for 1x. Good luck.

Looks like GS Over for the winning night.

I think it is a good play.

LOL Clearly I spoke too soon.

Let's go Kings.

[SoxSide Irish]

Look up Omer Asik's girlfriend...Unreal

[NYSportsGuy210]

Omer Asik kind of looks like a hybrid of Will Purdue and Toni Kukoc. Not that ugly....I mean he's no Popeye Jones.

[SoxSide Irish]

That chick is a ten, hes the man

[SoxSide Irish]

Survived a near OT scare in Indy

[Catchn_Picks]

Survived a near OT scare in Indy

That would have sucked.

252 pace in the Sac over so far.

I know...miles to go but the number is funny.

[SoxSide Irish]

Wow back to back threes lets goo

[Catchn_Picks]

Man we are in great position to hit Sac and the over right now.

217 pace!

[SoxSide Irish]

I parlayed it as well as each separate...fingers crossed it IS Sacramento

[Catchn_Picks]

All of a sudden both teams forget how to score?

[jackdean33]

202 pace.

[Catchn_Picks]

Could not possibly be a worst 4th quarter so far for us. 8-2 for GS in the 4th. Damn. We need a run right now.

[jackdean33]

i reckon we still hit both the over and sac-1..

[dlunc3]

need to average 2.8 pts over the last 5 minutes to hit the over... its a good thing this game has stayed close here if we are hoping to win both bets.

[dlunc3]

huge three

[jackdean33]

need 6 pts last 2 mins 16 and hopefully all 6 to sac haha

[Catchn_Picks]

Sacramento 10 points so far in the 4th..playing not to lose.

[jackdean33]

4pts last 2 mins and basically need them all to be for sac.