LTA's NBA Plays

[OZnBa Fan]

Play #1

Heat/Pacers under (182) 2.5x (Locked)

S-O-F-T....Larry Bird gave his instructions and this game is going to be a dog fight consisting of half-court play and defense. If you look at the games Miami has won, the PACE has been in the 90 range. In the games won by Indy, the PACE was at 84. Well I lean to Indy in this game in somewhat of a correlation because the only way this team keeps it close is to keep the PACE slow, keep Miami away from transition points and control the ball. I think the safer play is the under, because although I think Indy comes to play I'm just not sure they can cover the 3 points. Nevertheless, without Haslem -- Pittman does not really matter -- the Heat lose their most consistent offensive threat from the 12 foot range and someone who opens it up for Wade and James. The Heat will be forced to play Howard, who will hold his own defensively but do not expect a 10 point output. This game has a slow slug-fest written all over it, especially coming off two high scoring games with Bird challenging his team you can expect a very intense game. I suppose fouls are a concern but everyone knows that the refs will be extra sensitive and I don't see any stupid things happening. These guys should play it straight. I expect Indy to slow down the PACE by controlling the ball and forcing half court sets so I am rolling with the under for 2.5x. Good luck.[/QUOTE]

great play

[OZnBa Fan]

Im with u on the under tommro LTA..

[Pick'nParlays]

i pay no attention to the experts on covers.com

i do pay some attention when not one person has an under 5-0. i hate these experts but the under is still scaring me. i will tail for sure waiting for a better number

[karajohn13]

Hey LTA, what an amazing day, with 8-0 in both NBA and MLB. Thanks for your effort.
Allow me a question that you might have answered but it is quite impossible to search in the tons of posts.
Let's take for example tonight's game Heat@Pacers. Since your play is the under, your model obviously gives a great value in 182. So, guessing the line moves up, let's say to 184, why would this avoid you from adding to your play, since then, your model would give you an even greater value for the under? Hasn't ever happened the line to move in opposite direction from your pick, but still, finally you got to win?
Thanks in advance for your reply

[JM92]

That doesn't mean they will be able to dictate that pace though....without Udonis, they have no consistent scoring inside whatsoever. Lebron and Wade tend to take lazy jump shots and neither stays in the killer "driving to the hoop" mode for the entire game. Indy wants to force Miami into jumpshots as that is one of their defensive strengths and without Haslem, combined with the lack of front court depth from the loss of Bosh and Pittman, Miami is going to get killed on the boards. That is going to lead to less second chance points, less possessions and less opportunities for Miami to run. As a result, Indy will have more time to walk the ball up and down the court, get set offensively and pound the paint. Personally, I think the loss of Haslem hurts the "flow" of Miami's offense more than it helps their transition game. I expect Miami to struggle in half court sets and that will help the under.

Hey LTA, you know I respect you pretty much and all, but let me ask you sincerly: have you been seeing the games? The last two? Haslem's inside scoring is close to nothing as most of his points are from jumpers. Lebron james on the other hand, has taken like 5 or 6 jumpers the last two games. He doesn't even seem the same player, has every time he scores he's either at the hoop or shooting a floater 10-15 feet away. This being said, I do like the under play, because I also think that without Haslem they'll struggle mightily since james won't anyone to run the pick and pop with. I still think they win it as well though, so it will be Miami and the Under for me.

GL

[Redscot]

Hey LTA, you know I respect you pretty much and all, but let me ask you sincerly: have you been seeing the games? The last two? Haslem's inside scoring is close to nothing as most of his points are from jumpers. Lebron james on the other hand, has taken like 5 or 6 jumpers the last two games. He doesn't even seem the same player, has every time he scores he's either at the hoop or shooting a floater 10-15 feet away. This being said, I do like the under play, because I also think that without Haslem they'll struggle mightily since james won't anyone to run the pick and pop with. I still think they win it as well though, so it will be Miami and the Under for me.

GL

With Haslem spotting up 10 -12 feet from the hoop, on the wings or the elbow, it forces Indiana's big's to have to respect his ability to knock that jumper down. Thus Indiana's big's have to hedge out, shade toward him creating all the more space in the lane for Dwade and Labreezy. In the first 3 games of the series, when Haslem hadn't regained his touch/confidence this was at least partially a factor in Miami's offensive woes.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, you know I respect you pretty much and all, but let me ask you sincerly: have you been seeing the games? The last two? Haslem's inside scoring is close to nothing as most of his points are from jumpers. Lebron james on the other hand, has taken like 5 or 6 jumpers the last two games. He doesn't even seem the same player, has every time he scores he's either at the hoop or shooting a floater 10-15 feet away. This being said, I do like the under play, because I also think that without Haslem they'll struggle mightily since james won't anyone to run the pick and pop with. I still think they win it as well though, so it will be Miami and the Under for me.

GL

You are not seeing the big picture and are instead limiting your analysis to production as opposed to the negative effect the loss of Haslem will have on the efficiency, flow and operation of Miami's half court sets. Read Redscot's response above because he is spot on. It's not about Haslem's production per se, rather it's about the respect that must be shown to his 10-12 ft jumper. He has one of the most consistent shots in that range in the whole league and it really opens up the isolation sets for wade and lebron. To keep it simple, the threat of Haslem's jumper keep defenses honest and opens the floor. However, without Haslem, Miami has nothing to keep the Indy defense honest. Battier will not go 4-5 from beyond the arc again and the threat from a Chalmers, Jones, Miller, etc. is minimal because they play to the strength of Indy's defense. Miami is truly limited to Wade and Levron and Indy will key on them accordingly and work to limit their transition game. The loss of Haslem is big because there is no one else to fill his role considering their lack of depth.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 5/24/2012

Play #1

Heat/Pacers under (182) 3x (Locked)

S-O-F-T....Larry Bird gave his instructions and this game is going to be a dog fight consisting of half-court play and defense. If you look at the games Miami has won, the PACE has been in the 90 range. In the games won by Indy, the PACE was at 84. Well I lean to Indy in this game in somewhat of a correlation because the only way this team keeps it close is to keep the PACE slow, keep Miami away from transition points and control the ball. I think the safer play is the under, because although I think Indy comes to play I'm just not sure they can cover the 3 points. Nevertheless, without Haslem -- Pittman does not really matter -- the Heat lose their most consistent offensive threat from the 12 foot range and someone who opens it up for Wade and James. The Heat will be forced to play Howard, who will hold his own defensively but do not expect a 10 point output. This game has a slow slug-fest written all over it, especially coming off two high scoring games with Bird challenging his team you can expect a very intense game. I suppose fouls are a concern but everyone knows that the refs will be extra sensitive and I don't see any stupid things happening. These guys should play it straight. I expect Indy to slow down the PACE by controlling the ball and forcing half court sets so I am rolling with the under for 3x. Good luck.

Added 0.50x for total of 3x on Play #1. Correct units denoted above.

We have solid ref assignments with Foster, Davis and Mauer. Pinny is juicing the under at -109 indicating a possible move to 181.5 soon. I am rolling with the under at 182 for 3x. Good luck.

[Blood Drake]

@ JM92

As Red and LTA have stated, the loss of Haslem will allow the Indiana big men to stay under the basket on defense. This will cause problems with Heat scoring and also with the Heat getting offensive boards and put backs.

To see this is action look at the game logs in this series. Heat are 3-0 when Haslem gets 15+ minutes and 0-2 when he gets less than 15 minutes. In regards to the totals the Heat averaged 103.7 points in those wins and 75 points in those losses. There are many factors that determine the outcome of each game and this is just a small one. However, add it up along with the Granger injury, Pacers being at home, plus it being an elimination game for the Pacers....and you get a slow hard fought game. Similar to last nights Celtics - 76ers.

We hope!

[Bdolan33]

Added 0.50x for total of 3x on Play #1. Correct units denoted above.

We have solid ref assignments with Foster, Davis and Mauer. Pinny is juicing the under at -109 indicating a possible move to 181.5 soon. I am rolling with the under at 182 for 3x. Good luck.

This guy knows his stuff. Great in depth analysis!

[dmitean]

That doesn't mean they will be able to dictate that pace though....without Udonis, they have no consistent scoring inside whatsoever. Lebron and Wade tend to take lazy jump shots and neither stays in the killer "driving to the hoop" mode for the entire game. Indy wants to force Miami into jumpshots as that is one of their defensive strengths and without Haslem, combined with the lack of front court depth from the loss of Bosh and Pittman, Miami is going to get killed on the boards. That is going to lead to less second chance points, less possessions and less opportunities for Miami to run. As a result, Indy will have more time to walk the ball up and down the court, get set offensively and pound the paint. Personally, I think the loss of Haslem hurts the "flow" of Miami's offense more than it helps their transition game. I expect Miami to struggle in half court sets and that will help the under.

Good points LTA! I will probably play Under or Heat TT Under and/ or Indiana +3 or ML.
I think that Pacers should win this one 88 - 83 or something around that number.

Good luck!!!

[JM92]

You are not seeing the big picture and are instead limiting your analysis to production as opposed to the negative effect the loss of Haslem will have on the efficiency, flow and operation of Miami's half court sets. Read Redscot's response above because he is spot on. It's not about Haslem's production per se, rather it's about the respect that must be shown to his 10-12 ft jumper. He has one of the most consistent shots in that range in the whole league and it really opens up the isolation sets for wade and lebron. To keep it simple, the threat of Haslem's jumper keep defenses honest and opens the floor. However, without Haslem, Miami has nothing to keep the Indy defense honest. Battier will not go 4-5 from beyond the arc again and the threat from a Chalmers, Jones, Miller, etc. is minimal because they play to the strength of Indy's defense. Miami is truly limited to Wade and Levron and Indy will key on them accordingly and work to limit their transition game. The loss of Haslem is big because there is no one else to fill his role considering their lack of depth.

But then you are giving me reason... all I stated was that Haslem's inside scoring wasn't that valuable and that Lebron was not taking so many jumpers. I never said he would not do it in the next game or that he would feast on the inside! Actually, only in the last phrase of my sentence was I referring to the play. It was a merely a reply to your comment.

You guys simply went deeper and deeper on my thoughts that without Haslem, James and obviously the rest of the Heat will struggle since they don't have that third key guy to open up the driving lines. On the other hand, I still think the Heat have a monstrous defensive game, James is gonna be showing once again he's the best defensive player in the league (lol @ chandler getting the award and not making the 1st team) and lockdown West and Hibbert just seems lost in the last couple of games. Add the Granger injury as Blood Drake well stated, the fact that Pacers should be extremely careful to not let the Heat get into transition, likely consuming lot's of shot clock and not taking any risks moving the ball and even driving to the hoop, I think we get a 90-80 game, maybe even less.

[Winning oasis]

Looks like Granger is playing. He just said he was starting tonight. (ESPN at 100p EST)
They showed him taking shots in practice.

[dlunc3]

Haslem has only played 16 mpg this series... The three games that went under he only played 7 minutes, 12 minutes, and 23 minutes. Obviously a very small sample size... none the less, his absence really should not affect the total of this game.

[TC Woods]

Total dropping now... it's at 180 1/2

[bleedtoledo]

Looks like the under is getting hit hard in the closing minutes. As usual, the market agrees with LTA.

[JM92]

What the **** are the Heat doing having Battier guard West and let Lebron waste is talents on an injured granger?

[Blood Drake]

Pacers are pushing the ball and making shots. Both teams are playing good defense but the teams are pushing the pace and scoring with little time off the shot clock. Let's see how the bench players start playing.....brick city baby! (I hope)

[Crofta]

Almost 70% shooting Indy?? Surely not.....

[alamo]

Heat playing some great D in the 2nd Qtr. Pacers hurry up offense caught the Heat cold 1st qtr (forgive the pun)

[TC Woods]

I just doubled up on Live Betting at U194 1/2

[Pride]

looks like a bad call on the under

[SoxSide Irish]

Refs must have money on the over

[Pride]

refs have nothing to do with it. the refs didnt make the pacers shoot at a 70% clip to start the game or the heat shooting 4/9 from downtown.

[SoxSide Irish]

21 fouls already

[Blood Drake]

Basically, Wade is just on fire.....FML!!!

[Pride]

this is what fukking sucks about totals. the play is over in the first half, just brutal.

[Vinnie Paz]

Where all the optimists at?!?

Someone please come and tell me everythings gonna be just fine....

[zilchy]

Where all the optimists at?!?

Someone please come and tell me everythings gonna be just fine....

77 point half? Extremely doubtful. I'm gonna focus on Heat ML I think to try and still make a profit. Risky business though...

[CheeseHead]

Where all the optimists at?!?

Someone please come and tell me everythings gonna be just fine....

Sorry, it's not like they are luckily shooting these high percentages....both teams are just getting great looks due to lack of defense. Besides that, the pace has been pretty quick in this game. I just don't see this one cashing...it would take one HORRIBLE quarter to happen.

[alamo]

Where all the optimists at?!?

Someone please come and tell me everythings gonna be just fine....

Everything will be fine. It opens up a great opportunity for a potential big play in Game 7 if the Pacers hold on where I have no doubt we will make this bet back with some change thrown in.

[Blood Drake]

I would still have been optimistic if I hadn't watched the first half.

Both teams are pushing the ball way too quickly. We need both of the teams to start missing a ton of shots or have one of the teams go cold and the other get out to a big lead and run down the clock at the end of the game.

Problem with the last part is if the Pacers are down they will start shooting 3s which they can make....if the Heat are down they will push the ball faster and try to get to the hole while getting fouled.

I'm going to go grab a drink and hope we get a 12 point quarter like in game 3!

[jayson311]

this is what fukking sucks about totals. the play is over in the first half, just brutal.

What makes the difference if you lose it in the first half or second, even though that is damn near impossible, a loss is a loss no matter when it occurs. Also your comments show you have no idea what value means. Winning more times than losing doesn't mean you win them all.

[Vinnie Paz]

Lets go brick city !!

[CheeseHead]

Just freaking ridiculous the defense that is being played in this game....does anyone on the court realize this is game 6 in the semis of the playoffs??