LTA's NBA Plays

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • TC Woods
    SBR MVP
    • 12-17-11
    • 1780

    #9416
    Lamar Odom (illness) and Jason Kidd (groin injury) out tonight for <s>#</s>Mavericks against <s>#</s>Clippers.

    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #9417
      Originally posted by Love The Action
      NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 4/2/2012

      Play #1

      Grizzies (+8) 1x (Locked)


      I thought this one would have moved to +8.5 by now, instead the line movement has been eerily quiet. Pinny started juicing memphis at -107 so im locking this up now because im going to have a busy day and this one might just drop to 7.5. I think this is a great situational spot for memphis and would not be surprised to see them win outright. Okc is coming off a big win over the bulls and they have the heat up next. When you consider okc has beaten memphis twice already, i think they could come out "flat" without motivation. On the other hand, memphis is highly motivated to take on this okc for so many different reasons that we all know. Defensively, memphis is the #1 team in causing turnovers and could cause havoc against an unmotivated okc offense already ranked last in the league in turnovers. In addition, with zbo back memphis isa much deeper team in the frontcourt. The refs are mauer, blair and guthrie. Msuer and blair are both longtime refs that favor the road teams ats. I have this game set at +7, so in addition to strong qualitative factors, we also have some quatitative value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the grizzlies for 1x.
      Action Parlay -- Not for Records Win or Lose

      Mavericks ML (-175)/Under (189.5) (+205)

      Without Kidd, I expect Dallas' defense to improve considerably now that Roddy B. is playing. I think Dallas gets it done tonight and dominates on defense. I recommend you play this for 0.25x but play within your means. I don't play parlays often, but when I do I expect to win because of the correlation. In this case, I think a Dallas win is highly correlated to the game staying under the posted total. Good luck.
      Comment
      • JM92
        SBR MVP
        • 01-27-12
        • 1140

        #9418
        Would've played the under for 1x if you had given this out earlier actually. Would also do that parlay as I find it really interesting but both my books don't let me play two bets of the same game together.

        GL to you anyway I was will be rooting for a low-scorin Mavs win
        Comment
        • Les_Nuts
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 02-01-12
          • 931

          #9419
          I'm on Dallas -4. GL LTA, Memphis are getting no love from the refs, some of these calls are insane it's funny listening to the Memphis feed
          Comment
          • Love The Action
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-08-10
            • 10952

            #9420
            Originally posted by JM92
            Would've played the under for 1x if you had given this out earlier actually. Would also do that parlay as I find it really interesting but both my books don't let me play two bets of the same game together.

            GL to you anyway I was will be rooting for a low-scorin Mavs win
            Sorry dude, I didn't have any free time at work today. Good luck.
            Comment
            • JM92
              SBR MVP
              • 01-27-12
              • 1140

              #9421
              Originally posted by Les_Nuts
              I'm on Dallas -4. GL LTA, Memphis are getting no love from the refs, some of these calls are insane it's funny listening to the Memphis feed
              They only call them if its against Zach Randolph. Memphis should easily be up 5-6.
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #9422
                Originally posted by Les_Nuts
                I'm on Dallas -4. GL LTA, Memphis are getting no love from the refs, some of these calls are insane it's funny listening to the Memphis feed
                Good luck. I like Dallas at -4, but something just held me back. I actually thought there was better value in the Dallas ML at -175. However, I generally don't play that much juice which is why I went for the action parlay.

                Not worried about the calls....they'll even out. GL
                Comment
                • JM92
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-27-12
                  • 1140

                  #9423
                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                  Sorry dude, I didn't have any free time at work today. Good luck.
                  No problem amigo, actually haven't had much time to chime in, missed school today to study for an exam and ended up having more time to study the games on my mini-breaks then all of last week. The absence of line movement just made me feel like that line was very well set, so I passed on it. No leans for the late games, got any?
                  Comment
                  • mikea33
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-14-11
                    • 2149

                    #9424
                    Late leans LTA?
                    Comment
                    • TC Woods
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-17-11
                      • 1780

                      #9425
                      Originally posted by mikea33
                      Late leans LTA?
                      Need lean on the Utah/portland game....
                      Comment
                      • Dmoneytx
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-09-12
                        • 6450

                        #9426
                        Feel bad for all the people on here who said they took the Bulls ML. OUCH! Weren't they up like 13 or 14 points towards middle/end of 3rd quarter??? LOL.
                        Comment
                        • mikea33
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-14-11
                          • 2149

                          #9427
                          Im happy with a +1x night unless grizz choke
                          Comment
                          • Catchn_Picks
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-02-11
                            • 2984

                            #9428
                            Great read on the Grizz game LTA.
                            Comment
                            • TC Woods
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-17-11
                              • 1780

                              #9429
                              I think Kentucky could give a few of the NBA teams a run ....
                              Comment
                              • mikea33
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-14-11
                                • 2149

                                #9430
                                They defiently could beat the Bobcats
                                Comment
                                • mikea33
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-14-11
                                  • 2149

                                  #9431
                                  Got pro prospects like its nothin....reminds me of reggie bush's USC team with leinart
                                  Comment
                                  • Speedy88
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 03-19-11
                                    • 11717

                                    #9432
                                    nice call on memphis.
                                    Comment
                                    • mikea33
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-14-11
                                      • 2149

                                      #9433
                                      Thanks LTA
                                      Comment
                                      • blackgolden
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 02-11-12
                                        • 768

                                        #9434
                                        nice
                                        Comment
                                        • remypom
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 09-03-11
                                          • 102

                                          #9435
                                          Lta prob like Phil/Mia under Watever the line is. Right lta? Should come out a pt less then last times line even though last time it went over
                                          Comment
                                          • Love The Action
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-08-10
                                            • 10952

                                            #9436
                                            Originally posted by remypom
                                            Lta prob like Phil/Mia under Watever the line is. Right lta?
                                            No. You should never take a play "whatever the line is." There's nothing more important than getting a good number.

                                            Originally posted by remypom
                                            Should come out a pt less then last times line even though last time it went over
                                            Opened at 184. There's no value at that number, so I'll pass. My model has 186....

                                            While the under "seems" to be the play, I'm just not sure. Philly will be highly motivated and the Heat just came off the embarrassment against the Celtics, so I would not be surprised to see the Heat come out in high octane mode. For me, there's just no value in the under and I'm not going to take the over so I'll pass on the total. Good luck in whatever you choose.
                                            Comment
                                            • Catchn_Picks
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 09-02-11
                                              • 2984

                                              #9437
                                              Originally posted by mikea33
                                              Got pro prospects like its nothin....reminds me of reggie bush's USC team with leinart
                                              Live in KY. My lawyer was the basketball manager for Adolph Rupp for many years. Major Blue and White member.

                                              He told me last Friday that with just the freshman class that has already committed to them, they will be a MUCH stronger team next year than this year. How is that possible?
                                              Comment
                                              • Les_Nuts
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 02-01-12
                                                • 931

                                                #9438
                                                Great situational spot for golden state tomorrow. Middle game of b2b2b for memphis after a big win vs thunder and a game against the champs the day after. Line currently at +8 but I'm torn because they suck bad at the moment and seem to be tanking for that draft pick
                                                Comment
                                                • Love The Action
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                  • 10952

                                                  #9439
                                                  Originally posted by Les_Nuts
                                                  Great situational spot for golden state tomorrow. Middle game of b2b2b for memphis after a big win vs thunder and a game against the champs the day after. Line currently at +8 but I'm torn because they suck bad at the moment and seem to be tanking for that draft pick
                                                  Great situational spot, but you can't count on Golden State in this spot imho. They are just too unpredictable right now, so I'm pretty much staying away from their games completely. I need to get some more data on them without Ellis and Curry not playing before I can get a better read on this new GS team.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mikea33
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-14-11
                                                    • 2149

                                                    #9440
                                                    Yes its true they have some crazytalent. Not to mention #1 Nerlens Noel lives a few minutes away from me ive seen him playhe is the real deal. Close to committing to tucky
                                                    Comment
                                                    • mikea33
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-14-11
                                                      • 2149

                                                      #9441
                                                      Lta from a basketball mind to another who is ur pick to win it all? I bet youll say Bulls.
                                                      But i think the NBA has one more Lakers Celtics matchup to deal with and i think both teams have a good shot to surprise people
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Les_Nuts
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 02-01-12
                                                        • 931

                                                        #9442
                                                        On that subject, I have the thunder in my futures at +650. I didn't like our chances against the heat before I heard yesterday that rose may be out for part of the playoffs, can't see us beating them over 7 until we get some more talent
                                                        Comment
                                                        • SlickRick1382
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-15-11
                                                          • 3838

                                                          #9443
                                                          Originally posted by mikea33
                                                          Lta from a basketball mind to another who is ur pick to win it all? I bet youll say Bulls.
                                                          But i think the NBA has one more Lakers Celtics matchup to deal with and i think both teams have a good shot to surprise people
                                                          I'd prefer Thunder or Bulls since I dislike the Heat but you can never count them out.

                                                          Any given year anyone can win it though. Boston has a chance if they play like they did vs the Heat the other day. Lakers with Sessions look stronger than before. Heck before the injuries and they way they were playing under Woodson, I wouldn't even discount the Knicks as a long shot.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Love The Action
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-08-10
                                                            • 10952

                                                            #9444
                                                            Originally posted by mikea33
                                                            Lta from a basketball mind to another who is ur pick to win it all? I bet youll say Bulls.
                                                            But i think the NBA has one more Lakers Celtics matchup to deal with and i think both teams have a good shot to surprise people
                                                            I think the Heat should win it. They have too much talent in a 7 game series for most teams, plus they play efficient basketball on both ends of the court. They are an elite defensive team that takes pride in their defense and as long as they can defend the three point line, which is their weakness, they should win. Now, if Rose is 100% healthy and the Bulls have some time to gel with a healthy Rose and Rip, which is unlikely because the Bulls only play 8 more regular season games, then I could see the Bulls taking the Heat to a game 7 in the ECF where anything can happen.

                                                            However, I think the Rose injury is much worse than people think. There's a lot of rumblings from people close to the team that say he won't be ready by the playoffs. Even if he is ready, with only 8 games left in the season, he won't have the conditioning to play a ton of minutes. I heard that at best, he comes back 2 games before the playoffs in hopes of getting his legs under him and getting in playing shape. However, the more likely scenario is that he is limited to about 20 minutes per game to start the playoffs. You can take all this with a grain of salt, because it's all just rumor. However, this information is coming from someone connected to the team so you never know. I do believe that Rose would not miss this much time voluntarily so I am convinced he really is hurt unlike some others out there. Only time will tell.

                                                            I also like OKC and San Antonio. I would not be surprised to see either team come out of the West. Both teams have superior offenses with improving defenses. I think that would a really fun WCF as well.

                                                            As far as a darkhorse, I really like the inconsistent Magic simply because of Howard and their ability to shoot the 3. If the Magic make their 3 point shots, they are unbeatable. If they miss, they might not break 70. However, if they could get into a late season groove like the Mavs did last season, I think the Magic could make some noise. It's all about hitting their shots because Howard's production is a constant and if they start playing well he will become more motivated. Just like every sport, it's about getting hot at the right time.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • dmitean
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 03-30-11
                                                              • 364

                                                              #9445
                                                              Great work tonight LTA with Memphis!
                                                              I'm beyond shocked to see a night where Rockets and Memphis win Chicago and Oklahoma at home and Clippers blow Dallas away by winning by 19 points on the road in direct HCA in the playoffs battle.

                                                              Great start of the month and hopefully you turned the corner. Good luck today!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • dmitean
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 03-30-11
                                                                • 364

                                                                #9446
                                                                I believe the Finals will be between Chicago and Oklahoma btw. Chicago a year wiser, Rip was exactly what they needed and they could have easily won two out of the 4 games they lost to the Heat last year, if they had Rip. They needed someone that can make points other than Rose and Rip can be that go to guy, especially with Bron on Rose.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • SlickRick1382
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 10-15-11
                                                                  • 3838

                                                                  #9447
                                                                  Originally posted by dmitean
                                                                  I believe the Finals will be between Chicago and Oklahoma btw. Chicago a year wiser, Rip was exactly what they needed and they could have easily won two out of the 4 games they lost to the Heat last year, if they had Rip. They needed someone that can make points other than Rose and Rip can be that go to guy, especially with Bron on Rose.
                                                                  Problem is how effective Rose is going to be int he playoffs and how serious is his injury. If he's not at 100% which he currently isn't then that changes everything. East is the Heat's to lose...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • bonestock
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 03-25-11
                                                                    • 246

                                                                    #9448
                                                                    this month looking better already. hit memphis, sac, and tucky today.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • dmitean
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 03-30-11
                                                                      • 364

                                                                      #9449
                                                                      Originally posted by SlickRick1382
                                                                      Problem is how effective Rose is going to be int he playoffs and how serious is his injury. If he's not at 100% which he currently isn't then that changes everything. East is the Heat's to lose...
                                                                      Obviously I saying everything assuming everyone is healthy and in shape. Rip and Rose been battling injury all season so of course it's a reason to worry.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Love The Action
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                                        • 10952

                                                                        #9450
                                                                        NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 4/2/2012

                                                                        1 - 0 = +1x

                                                                        NBA 2011-2012 Season

                                                                        120 - 107 = +7.45x

                                                                        Onto Tuesday...good luck!
                                                                        Last edited by Love The Action; 04-02-12, 11:57 PM.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...