LTA's NBA Plays

[Les_Nuts]

I'm a rookie at this, please explain the "packing Denver...."

Clearly means backing Denver. I have hedged so that I get a profit of .53 units if magic win and a push if Denver win. No way I'm letting it ride without d12

[unitedlad]

I'm a rookie at this, please explain the "packing Denver...."

Sorry, spelling mistake, meant 'backing' so we can ensure that we don't lose our 1x and if the parlay does come off, we still win about 0.5x. Loss of Howard is huge imo.

[TC Woods]

Thanks guys

[mikea33]

I think im going to let it play out. If there was a team whoavench and reserves need to prove their worthyness before playoff time its Orlando.perfectspot for "supwrstar out everyone steps up type of game." Nationally televised i think theyll give a good effort this is a great spot for emIm at the celts burial , should i assasinate chalmers???

[TC Woods]

Sorry, spelling mistake, meant 'backing' so we can ensure that we don't lose our 1x and if the parlay does come off, we still win about 0.5x. Loss of Howard is huge imo.

Total is @ 201 and has remained steady even after the Howard news.

Will his loss impact the "total" of the game?

[unitedlad]

All my books just went down to 2.45. Looks like I may have to just ride it out, not sure if it's worth the hit.

[Catchn_Picks]

The line is telling us that Orlando is probably going to be without Howard. Dropping like a rock before game time on a public team is a pretty good sign.

[Love The Action]

NBA Regular Season 2011-2012 4/1/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Heat under (186.5) 1.5x (Locked)

I am going to keep this as a 1.5x play because Crawford and Bavetta are the refs and are two unpredictable to trust. However, this is a game I fully expect to stay under the posted total. In the game on Christmas Day, both teams shot over 50% from the field and over 60% from beyond the arc in a game that soared over the posted total of 187. Despite all that scoring, the books opened this game at 186.5 a 1/2 point lower than that first game. I think they expect a lower scoring game and I have to agree. My model has this game set at 182 which is too much value to pass up despite getting burned by some Heat unders this week. Defensively, we have an even stronger defensive matchup than we did earlier in the week with the Heat and Mavs. I won't go through all the numbers, but we'll just say that both teams are defensive elite teams ranking in the top 5 of most statistically significant categories. Offensively, the Heat are set up perfectly for a regression after two solid offensive performances, especially when you consider that Boston will be waiting for them with some defensive adjustments from the previous game. This is a grudge match type game that will take shape with defensive intensity of the playoffs. In this series, it has been rare to see these two teams have two high scoring games in a row and I cannot imagine that both teams shoot 60% from beyond the arc or 50% from the field again today. I have this game set at 182 giving us 4 full points of value which is just too much to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

ML Parlay

Thunder ML (-230)/Magic ML (-210) Risk 1x to win 1.1x (Locked)

I made this play about 45 minutes ago, but am just able to post it now so the Thunder odds have gone up to about -250. However, that is still acceptable for this play. This will be our second moneyline parlay of the season after we cashed on the first day of the season with the Bulls/Heat play. I know this could be deemed a "square" play, but both my model and situational factors project both teams to win these games and probably cover -5ish spreads. The OKC line got away from me and there's no way I play -6, however, I expect the Thunder to have too much firepower in this game at home with the Bullls playing without Rose. Chicago has the advantage defensively, but OKC has been improving all year and are currently ranked 11th in DEFF. Without Rose, the Bulls will have a difficult time coming up with consistent scoring options because we all know Boozer likes to wilt in "big" games. Even though the Bulls will give maximum effort -- which is good enough even without Rose to beat 90% of the teams in the NBA -- it will not be enough against the elite teams such as OKC. I do not think Rip's return will much impact today and you can only get by so long without your superstar before you start to lose some games. This is a game I fully expect the Bulls to lose but they can probably keep too close to consider playing a spread of -5.5 or more. That is why I think the moneyline parlay is the better option. In the other game, we have two of the more inconsistent playoff-caliber teams in the NBA. However, as long as Howard plays, and every report out says he will, I think Orlando should win this game and probably cover the -5. My model has Orlando favored at -6 and I would not be surprised to see that type of victory. Both teams' success is based highly on the 3 point shot and Orlando has the decided advantage on both ends of the court from behind the arc. Orlando's perimeter defense from beyond the arc is ranked top 10 in O3P% and O3pt EFG%, while Denver is ranked dead last in both. In addition, Orlando is ranked in the top 3 of 3P% and 3pt EFG%, while Denver is bottom 1/3 of the league. I expect Orlando to light it up from 3 point land in this game. However, they will also dominate the paint with Howard. I know that the reports say he has a bad back and missed practice, but he has not missed a game all season and I do not expect that streak to end tonight. Orlando has lost two games and needs to get back in the win column and Howard should put up some huge numbers against Denver's thin front court. I don't play many moneyline parlays, but I think both these teams win and probably cover and therefore I a going to parlay them on the moneyline for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Nuggets/Magic over (201) 1x (Locked)

No Howard = track meet and easy baskets inside for the Nuggets. I might hedge the Magic/Thunder ML Par or I might let it ride based on the "injured star theory" which has been successful this season and this is the exact situation to fit the theory. Regardless, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[TC Woods]

Play #3

Nuggets/Magic over (201) 1x (Locked)

No Howard = track meet and easy baskets inside for the Nuggets. I might hedge the Magic/Thunder ML Par or I might let it ride based on the "injured star theory" which has been successful this season and this is the exact situation to fit the theory. Regardless, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Exactly what I was thinking....

[Catchn_Picks]

Nice multi-unit hit LTA. Congrats

[Dave88]

Nice call on the Heat/C's under LTA.
Winning start to the day, now lets bring it home with over in the Magic game. GL to all.

[Les_Nuts]

[Vasco]

I put a half unit on a parlay Denver + 5 (bought 1.5 when it was +3.5) and Lakers ML. Pays even money. I'd be shocked if LA lost. Let's hope Magic win by about 2 and anyone who hedged can win both. Solid under play LTA, let's keep it going. Good start to April.

[demarco2]

Sorry for this question, but I'm pretty new to all of this.

I hedged by taking nuggets ML for .7 units to win 1 so that if magic win I gain .3x and a magic loss I break even. Should I have been hedging with the spread not the ML? How much did you generally put on this in relation to your original 1x bet?

Thanks in advance.

[TC Woods]

I'm watching the Denver/Orlando game...

Orlando is rather pathetic today.... game is real sloppy, about a dozen t/o's in the first quarter

[mikea33]

Still early but dnver might score 120 hopefulluy i can hedg ou of parlay at half

[Pivotpoint]

Sorry for this question, but I'm pretty new to all of this.

I hedged by taking nuggets ML for .7 units to win 1 so that if magic win I gain .3x and a magic loss I break even. Should I have been hedging with the spread not the ML? How much did you generally put on this in relation to your original 1x bet?

Thanks in advance.

Seems like your best move if you wanted to reduce exposure. I parlayed the Celtics + 4 1/2 with the Magic ML. Letting it ride. These last minute scratches in the NBA can really kick you in the ass. Jumped on the over right away when I heard Howard was out. Here's to the Magic hitting their 3's in the second half

[adam3248]

LTA! I'd like to get your opinion on the Nuggs/Magic game please. I missed your 'over' pick before the game but with it now being 48-42 @ HT i can get O/U 190.5.

Dya think theres any value there?

Thanks.

[mikea33]

I dont think either team can play defense

[bigjah15]

lets hope for overtime

[mikea33]

we are on pace brutha

[alamo]

Magic in big trouble. Down 5 with 4min to play

[mikea33]

they can win they just went on a scoring drought. **** the magic

[mikea33]

now denver taking there sweet old time. mothaf fucka

[Catchn_Picks]

So let me see if I understand this...the Magic organization spent more than half this season dangling Howard as trade bait?

Yea, that makes sense.

[mikea33]

There going no where. trust me. no closer, no one who can take over a game in the 4th quarter. there not a good TEAM. i a celtics fan i see a lot of their games...........they shouldn't be the seed they are.

[SlickRick1382]

Why would you hope for OT when its on pace to hit 200+

Game wasn't that far off at halftime and setup a higher scoring 2nd. Line even opened at 100.

Great job today LTA. Just got in from Georgia for a wedding and glad to see some nice winners being picked. Hope it continues throughout the month and can't wait for playoffs.

[Speedy88]

Poor Ryan Anderson, stood no chance against Ty so he just injured himself.

[mikea33]

we need fouls at least a push please

[bigjah15]

Gonna be close

[Catchn_Picks]

Yea baby! Cover that total.

[absolutkaos]

[Dave88]

[bigjah15]

[Catchn_Picks]

Richardson clearly fouled while taking a 3 pointer to end the game.