LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

Hornets/Clippers getting juiced at -110 on the 181.5 over. I can get 182 at my local. If pinny keeps juicing without moving to 182, then i will play the under.

[pacocn]

I like it a lot, but passed because the last time these two teams played a few weeks ago they played to a 180 final score. That was played at a 88 PACE but the Raptors only shot 40% and Orlando only shot 44%. I can see both these teams making just a few more shots at the same pace to push this one over 183.

Whenever you see a matchup in which two teams played earlier, you should study that game to determine what, if any, abnormal things occurred because you might see the opposite in the next game depending on the teams. It's all about regression to the mean. GL.

You were spot on lta, the Magic/Raptors went for 110 in the 1st H

[Love The Action]

If you would have told me before the game that the Nets would hold the Jazz to 37% shooting through mid-way of the 2q, I would have thought for sure the Nets would be up. Unfortunately, in this case the Nets are only shooting 26% and losing. No reason at at for the Nets to be playing this poorly. However, as we all know, this is a 4 quarter game and there is plenty of time. The Nets should win this in the 4th by wearing the jazz down.

[pacocn]

Speaking about "regression to the mean" i jumped on the Under 90.5
in the Magic/Raptor 2h.

[JM92]

Thanks everyone for the answers concerning steam. Should've played that bucks/Knicks over, damn.

[mikea33]

Ugh

[G-manFan]

Bovada up to 183 on NO / Clipps game but other books not following suit yet.

[dlunc3]

my books dropped back down to 181.5

[SlickRick1382]

If you would have told me before the game that the Nets would hold the Jazz to 37% shooting through mid-way of the 2q, I would have thought for sure the Nets would be up. Unfortunately, in this case the Nets are only shooting 26% and losing. No reason at at for the Nets to be playing this poorly. However, as we all know, this is a 4 quarter game and there is plenty of time. The Nets should win this in the 4th by wearing the jazz down.

Would you risk something on Nets -4.5 for the 2H?

[Love The Action]

Ugh

Deron Williams 1-9 from the field in the 1h. The Jazz are not even playing well and still leading these guys by 17. I can't believe New Jersey is playing with such a lack of heart. With as bad as they played, Utah has burned us multiple times with double digit leads when we played them as a favorite, so let's hope they blow it in this game to pay us back.

[Love The Action]

Would you risk something on Nets -4.5 for the 2H?

I don't throw good money after bad, but if you think Utah falls apart from the fatigue it wouldn't be a bad play.

[Love The Action]

my books dropped back down to 181.5

Are the books really going to give out all this free money on the over in this matchup. In the first game, this one opened up at 181.5 and had RLM down to 180.5 in some spots by game time despite 85%+ on the over. In this game, we have 88%+ on the over and the Pinny line has held steady at 181.5 (although they are juicing the over at -110). If Pinny never moves to 182, I would be shocked to see this one go over. The books are not in the business of losing like that. I almost want to make it a multiple unit play if the line never moves, but I don't go multiple units when my model doesn't show enough value to do so.

[dallasspartan]

I can get the Nets -5..Like LTA?

[dallasspartan]

Sorry I saw that question was already asked

[absolutkaos]

Are the books really going to give out all this free money on the over in this matchup. In the first game, this one opened up at 181.5 and had RLM down to 180.5 in some spots by game time despite 85%+ on the over. In this game, we have 88%+ on the over and the Pinny line has held steady at 181.5 (although they are juicing the over at -110). If Pinny never moves to 182, I would be shocked to see this one go over. The books are not in the business of losing like that. I almost want to make it a multiple unit play if the line never moves, but I don't go multiple units when my model doesn't show enough value to do so.

why do you think they are holding the line so firmly at 181.5? if that many people are playing the over, wouldn't the standard response be to raise the line? are you saying that basically this line is just that sharp?

[Les_Nuts]

I got the Nets at +2.5 last night so I am disappointed my bet is in bad shape at the half after beating the closer by a good 4 points. However, I still expect NJ to win this game, they are that type of team who go on terrible runs and great runs and the jazz will be worn out towards the end of the 3rd. I am not taking Nets -4.5 at the half as I already have my pre match bet, but I do like it and the ML at +900 is something I will play for a very small stake. GL no need to panic yet

[Les_Nuts]

why do you think they are holding the line so firmly at 181.5? if that many people are playing the over, wouldn't the standard response be to raise the line? are you saying that basically this line is just that sharp?

One angle is the books want as much money on the over, so offer an attractive line because they perceive it to have a low chance of hitting

[mikea33]

new jersey. Jeez lol

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/26/2012

Play #1

Nets (-1) 1x (Locked)

This one dropped back down and i'm buying it now before going back up to the -1.5-2 range. This is a very strong situational play for numerous reasons including utah's fatigue from the 3 ot game last night and nj's revenge from a loss earlier in the year. We also should have a motivated deron williams for obvious reasons. Statistically, these teams are both offensive teams with poor defense. I think the addition of wallace will be the key to this game as he adds a legitimate weapon to williams' options. The jazz starters should be tired after playing over 50 minutes and I expect that fatigue to tske its hold. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the nets for 1x.

Play #2

Hornets/Clippers under (182) 1x (Locked)

My thoughts on this play are in numerous plays above and we just played this same matchup on the under a few days ago. I don't think we'll see another 64 point quarter like we did in that game. I think Pinny drops the juice on the over 181.5 soon and starts juicing the under so I'm jumping on the 182 while I still can. I expect a slow methodical pace in this game just like we had a few days ago. However, I don't think the Hornets will shoot 57% just like I don't think the Clippers will shoot 38%. The Clippers should improve while the Hornets take a step back. As long as both teams keep it under 47%, we should be ok at the 86.2 PACE these guys played at last week. If this one jumps to 182 on Pinny, I may have to think about buying out. However, I like the under in this spot and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

[absolutkaos]

but with such heavy action on the over, wouldn't they also want more action on the under as well?

i thought the ultimate end goal of the books is to take as much as possible from the players. if they raise the line now, and the under gets hammered, would it really devalue the number of plays (88%) that have already hit the over, wouldnt they want to hedge to get as much action as possible on both sides of the line? or is it just the sharps that are waiting to hit the under late if the line jumps?

[Love The Action]

new jersey. Jeez lol

Unreal....you would think that they were the team that played 3 OT's yesterday and still had to travel. Pathetic....

[Love The Action]

but with such heavy action on the over, wouldn't they also want more action on the under as well?

i thought the ultimate end goal of the books is to take as much as possible from the players. if they raise the line now, and the under gets hammered, would it really devalue the number of plays (88%) that have already hit the over, wouldnt they want to hedge to get as much action as possible on both sides of the line? or is it just the sharps that are waiting to hit the under late if the line jumps?

Books take positions all the time when they think they have an edge. Therefore, they will throw out a low number in order to entice more over money. They will do this when they have a perceived edge that is profitable long term. Plus, they will hedge their own risk out by buying the other side at other books. Have you checked out Chad Millman's Behind the Bets series. The pod casts are quite good....

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=5395837

[jas19illini]

but with such heavy action on the over, wouldn't they also want more action on the under as well?

i thought the ultimate end goal of the books is to take as much as possible from the players. if they raise the line now, and the under gets hammered, would it really devalue the number of plays (88%) that have already hit the over, wouldnt they want to hedge to get as much action as possible on both sides of the line? or is it just the sharps that are waiting to hit the under late if the line jumps?

Watch the video LTA provided a couple pages back. Your theory about even money on both sides is explicitly said to be a WRONG perception by the public. If the books like a particular side in a game, they wont shy away from putting out a number that gets a lot of public money on the side they think will lose.

[absolutkaos]

Books take positions all the time when they think they have an edge. Therefore, they will throw out a low number in order to entice more over money. They will do this when they have a perceived edge that is profitable long term. Plus, they will hedge their own risk out by buying the other side at other books. Have you checked out Chad Millman's Behind the Bets series. The pod casts are quite good....

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/...ive?id=5395837

Always looking for new podcasts to listen to at work....thanks!

[d3llan]

LTA, where do you find your infomation about each teams pace? I can only find the total pace of the current season...

[alamo]

Here come the Nets down the stands side...

[mikea33]

Still life...win or lose LTA i liked the play. Jazz traveling after a 4 OT game so lets see if they die out

[absolutkaos]

Watch the video LTA provided a couple pages back. Your theory about even money on both sides is explicitly said to be a WRONG perception by the public. If the books like a particular side in a game, they wont shy away from putting out a number that gets a lot of public money on the side they think will lose.

Thanks jas....missed that link the other day

here it is again for anyone else who might want to see it...

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=4560

[pacocn]

Speaking about "regression to the mean" i jumped on the Under 90.5
in the Magic/Raptor 2h.

There was not enough regression to the mean. I lost on this one.
Both teams were hitting 3's in the 2h as well. On to the next.

[SlickRick1382]

Nets down 3 1 minute into the 4th

Still have more than enough time.

[SlickRick1382]

There was not enough regression to the mean. I lost on this one.
Both teams were hitting 3's in the 2h as well. On to the next.

You weren't the only one ...

[alamo]

Gerald Green 2/6 from the FT as a shooting guard. this fcker is breaking all the momentum they had.
Nets 14/25 overall from the line.

[pacocn]

Rick there was nothing slick about that orlando/raptor 2h call

[TC Woods]

Wow... NJ really sucks

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

Have you still been looking at the o/u under line movement on the NOH game LTA? I really like the under 183. The over is getting of the action yet the line maybe squeaked up .5