LTA's NBA Plays

**SlickRick1382** · 03-26-12, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Situationally, that Nets game is a great play. That is one of my strong leans. The stats lean to the Jazz, but not by as much as you would think. Plus, even though the Nets are a bad "home" team, the Jazz are even worse away from home. We have revenge by Williams who lost earlier in the year to the Jazz and with Wallace now on the team I think that the Nets have some nice options right now. I also like the over in this matchup, but the Jazz fatigue will not help that come the 4th quarter.

Hmm....

I posted in another thread that I was leaning on Nets TT over perhaps and maybe even a 2H bet on the Nets. I think Jazz come out solid but obviously wear out as the game goes on. I can see them fading in the 2H.

I do agree tho that situational point of view is a great play. Especially the revenge factor for Deron who was played very physical in Utah and booed if my memory serves me correct.

Any thoughts on the Bucks +5.5? I got them at +6 (bought the hook, don't know why) and see it at +5 in some books already.

**Gio-man77** · 03-26-12, 02:22 PM

What about the over in NJ Nets/ Utah game. I'm think that game should easily go to 204-206. This is one of my favorite plays today. What do you think LTA. Thanks.

**jas19illini** · 03-26-12, 02:23 PM

Stoudamire might be out. If so, the Knicks play better without him, both offensively and defensively. Lin is probable, and the Knicks play better offensively with him in.

**Judgejoebrwn** · 03-26-12, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by Gio-man77

What about the over in NJ Nets/ Utah game. I'm think that game should easily go to 204-206. This is one of my favorite plays today. What do you think LTA. Thanks.

I'm not LTA, but I'd advise against it honestly. L10 for New Jersey, they only average 93 PPG and their opponents only 95. I just can't see Utah scoring tons of points after last night and travelling cross country. I believe the under would be the smarter play, but it IS the NBA after all.

-Judge

**PR9** · 03-26-12, 02:55 PM

I just read the last few pages. WTF is wrong with you people and all the soap opera nonsense , bullshit and stupidity. Stick to talking about the plays/angles etc or shut the fukk up

go to insidehoops.com forum or realgm.com NBA forum if you want to be stupid . This forum is not for you

**Gio-man77** · 03-26-12, 03:46 PM

Judge,

In the last 5 back 2 back games for Utah. They are allowing opponents and average of 103.8 on the second game. And after last night their defense should be a no show. And they are also scoring an average of 107. But I appreciate the info. Thanks

**mikea33** · 03-26-12, 03:46 PM

LTA any plays tonight?

**CaptainNemo89** · 03-26-12, 04:17 PM

anyone like under 181.5 clippers/hornets? we bet the under on this game a few days ago, and lost because of a ridiculously high scoring first half. the game really slowed down in the second half, but we lost the under by 5 points. the game tonight opened at the same line, and despite about 90% betting the over, the line hasnt budged. the two teams are the lowest in PACE, and NO is second to last in OEFF, and i know lta likes looking at those stats. just a thought, was wondering what anyone else thought

also have a lean on the under in magic/raptors

**mikea33** · 03-26-12, 04:19 PM

nemo..... yess

**SlickRick1382** · 03-26-12, 04:40 PM

Despite 78% being on the Over Pinnacle was juicing the Under all afternoon

o_O

DeRozan ruled out, James Johnson has the flu

should also help the cause

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by CaptainNemo89

anyone like under 181.5 clippers/hornets? we bet the under on this game a few days ago, and lost because of a ridiculously high scoring first half. the game really slowed down in the second half, but we lost the under by 5 points. the game tonight opened at the same line, and despite about 90% betting the over, the line hasnt budged. the two teams are the lowest in PACE, and NO is second to last in OEFF, and i know lta likes looking at those stats. just a thought, was wondering what anyone else thought

also have a lean on the under in magic/raptors

Yes, but we need to monitor the line to make sure it does not go up to 182 and stays at 181.5. GL

**mikea33** · 03-26-12, 04:47 PM

lta i love it.
your in the zone.

**TheLandlord** · 03-26-12, 05:02 PM

James Johnson is feeling better and will play tonight for the Raptors. This according to roto

**SlickRick1382** · 03-26-12, 05:02 PM

Just moved to U183 for the Orlando / Toronto.

Think I may a play on it now before it goes back down. Pinnacle is still at 182.5

**TheLandlord** · 03-26-12, 05:03 PM

Raja Bell is out for the Jazz tonight.

**Brooklyn Dick** · 03-26-12, 05:04 PM

Linn and Stoudemire are both "expected to be out" for Knicks.

**Vasco** · 03-26-12, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by Brooklyn Dick

Linn and Stoudemire are both "expected to be out" for Knicks.

Damn I was already in for over 207.5. Now down to 205.5.....worth it to buy out at under 206?

**Pivotpoint** · 03-26-12, 05:11 PM

Having a tough time finalizing my plays for tonight. Been a little cold on the NBA of late. Shortened season, injuries and some teams literally taking games off and going through the motions.

Played a couple college games this weekend and while it is the tourney, it was eye opening the difference in intensity. Watched Kansas play North Carolina and that was some game. Tuned into the Heat/Thunder game after and wow, what a difference. Been a long time since I saw the Heat play that poorly. Spurs sit Duncan and still blast the Sixers?

I really don't want to play the Knicks, but that -5 keeps popping out at me. Knicks lost twice to Bucks and I like them to win tonight at home. Bucks hit a bunch of overs, but Knicks seem to be focusing more on defense. Knicks have seen their last 5 games go under. I like the Under 207 in that game.

I also like the Bulls/ Nuggets under 199. Can usually count on Tibbs to demand tough defense and Bulls off an uncommonly high 102-101 scoring game (OT). Bulls are rested and should focus more on Defense. Have a feeling that bulls will work the ball down low and try to control pace.

Gl to everyone and their plays.

**dlunc3** · 03-26-12, 05:18 PM

knicks line dropped from -6 to -4... seeing on twitter that both are out

**Pick'nParlays** · 03-26-12, 05:21 PM

bol LTA get you some

**Speedy88** · 03-26-12, 05:22 PM

Amare and Lin are out, line is at NYK -4 now. Honestly, I don't trust either of these teams. No play for me. Good luck to anyone who is playing it.

**SlickRick1382** · 03-26-12, 05:27 PM

Got in on +5.5 earlier today. Think the Bucks are going to want it more. They're 1.5 games behind NY for the final spot and need this win badly if they want a shot at the playoffs.

**JM92** · 03-26-12, 05:27 PM

I should've played it last night when I had the chance to get 6. I just made my first play of the night, Clippers/Hornets under. 80% of the public on the over (seen it in two sites) and yet line stays the same.

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by JM92

I should've played it last night when I had the chance to get 6. I just made my first play of the night, Clippers/Hornets under. 80% of the public on the over (seen it in two sites) and yet line stays the same.

4hrs to game time. Gotta wait out the late steam to be sure ..

**JM92** · 03-26-12, 05:37 PM

Can you explain what you guys always mean by the steam? I think I get it, but just to be sure. Short sentence will do probably. I think its only a bit of a language barrier. For as good as my english might be, I've never even had an english course all my life, so from time to time I always encounter some tough expressions.

**Pivotpoint** · 03-26-12, 05:42 PM

Grabbed the Knicks -4 with reduced juice -103. Line already ticked up to -4 1/2. Don't see the loss of Lin and Amare that significant. Locked in the under at that game at 205.5 and Bulls Under 199. gl

**Pivotpoint** · 03-26-12, 05:43 PM

Steam equals large amount of money that moves line.

**absolutkaos** · 03-26-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by JM92

Can you explain what you guys always mean by the steam? I think I get it, but just to be sure. Short sentence will do probably. I think its only a bit of a language barrier. For as good as my english might be, I've never even had an english course all my life, so from time to time I always encounter some tough expressions.

Steam - In sports betting steam is when a line starts to move rapidly. Most "steam games" do not necessarily reflect objective circumstances, but are games that a mass of bettors is drawn to for some reason.

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 05:57 PM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/26/2012

Play #1

Nets (-1) 1x (Locked)

This one dropped back down and i'm buying it now before going back up to the -1.5-2 range. This is a very strong situational play for numerous reasons including utah's fatigue from the 3 ot game last night and nj's revenge from a loss earlier in the year. We also should have a motivated deron williams for obvious reasons. Statistically, these teams are both offensive teams with poor defense. I think the addition of wallace will be the key to this game as he adds a legitimate weapon to williams' options. The jazz starters should be tired after playing over 50 minutes and I expect that fatigue to tske its hold. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the nets for 1x.

**Metatron** · 03-26-12, 06:08 PM

LTA I am assuming since you have not talked about it you have no lean on the Rap/Orl under? Seems like a +EV bet to me under 183. Orlando always plays down to their competition and the Raptors are generally solid on D at home...

**pacocn** · 03-26-12, 06:11 PM

Lta, bol, like the situational play.

**pacocn** · 03-26-12, 06:15 PM

Lta, Jordan Farmar and Anthony Morrow are both out for the Nets.

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by JM92

Can you explain what you guys always mean by the steam? I think I get it, but just to be sure. Short sentence will do probably. I think its only a bit of a language barrier. For as good as my english might be, I've never even had an english course all my life, so from time to time I always encounter some tough expressions.

In today's vocabulary steam can mean many things. Steam can constitute a wide-spread market move brought upon by a syndicat or betting operation hitting mutliple books at once. This simultaneous action causes all the books to react and adjust.

Steam can also generally refer to times of the day when the line tends to move. For example, you will see a lot of line moves between the following three times of day: (1) morning of the game between 10 am EST and 12pm EST; (2) between 2:30 pm and 3:30 pm EST; and (3) 6:30 pm EST and 8pm EST. There are also some moves on the late games about an hour to 30 minutes before game time. These can be referred to as early steam, mid-day steam and late steam.

Just like with the terms "sharp" and "square" you will hear different people using sports investment terms to mean different things. You will start to pick this stuff up the more you hear it. GL

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by Metatron

LTA I am assuming since you have not talked about it you have no lean on the Rap/Orl under? Seems like a +EV bet to me under 183. Orlando always plays down to their competition and the Raptors are generally solid on D at home...

I like it a lot, but passed because the last time these two teams played a few weeks ago they played to a 180 final score. That was played at a 88 PACE but the Raptors only shot 40% and Orlando only shot 44%. I can see both these teams making just a few more shots at the same pace to push this one over 183.

Whenever you see a matchup in which two teams played earlier, you should study that game to determine what, if any, abnormal things occurred because you might see the opposite in the next game depending on the teams. It's all about regression to the mean. GL.

**Love The Action** · 03-26-12, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by pacocn

Lta, Jordan Farmar and Anthony Morrow are both out for the Nets.

Yep. It's time for guys to step and play for a job.