LTA's NBA Plays

[Roto97]

Fuking Lucas taking that quick shot. Then Toronto scored to bring it within 7 and now they are going to foul. We got a 15 point cushion with 1 minute left. Let's go.

Nice hits LTA. A little uncharacteristic of you with the last minute anxiety.

Surprised mikea33 didn't tell you to calm down

[Love The Action]

I'm riding out the Lakers/Mavs under. Regardless of Marion's absence, I still think this number is way too high. I'm done for the night. Good luck.

[Pivotpoint]

John Lucas is a straight up scumbag.

LTA, thought you were a Bulls fan? Under was safe. I have to give Lucas huge credit. It's one thing to be fearless, another to splash those shots at key times. Guy's like a little spark plug and has been huge, turning momentum of games in Rose's absence. No turnovers and a couple of nice assists tonight. Doing a much better job of getting the ball out of his hands before shot clock winds down, also.

Guys been golden of late to Bulls backers. Had to back him here.

Nice calls on todays card.

[Love The Action]

Nice hits LTA. A little uncharacteristic of you with the last minute anxiety.

Surprised mikea33 didn't tell you to calm down

Ha!

It was more about having some class than the game itself. Lucas kept on driving to the hoop at the start of the shot clock with 1 minute left even though they were up more than 10. That pissed Dwayne Casey off, so he kept calling timeouts and telling his guys to foul. Then, Lucas does the same thing with about 30 seconds left and gets yelled at by Thibs. Despite all that, he did it again with like 15 seconds left. Lucas acted like a cocky dirtbag toward the end of the game. I like the kid, but that was bush-league.

[Love The Action]

LTA, thought you were a Bulls fan? Under was safe. I have to give Lucas huge credit. It's one thing to be fearless, another to splash those shots at key times. Guy's like a little spark plug and has been huge, turning momentum of games in Rose's absence. No turnovers and a couple of nice assists tonight. Doing a much better job of getting the ball out of his hands before shot clock winds down, also.

Guys been golden of late to Bulls backers. Had to back him here.

Nice calls on todays card.

Lucas didn't show any class at the end of the game. He should have held the ball and ran out the clock. Have some respect for the game. Instead, he was trying to pad his stats at the expense of Toronto who had given up. Thibs yelled at him multiple times and he kept on doing it. I thought Lucas acted like a dirtbag toward the end of the game. That doesn't mean I don't like him or whatever, but I would have preferred that he acted with more class.

[mikea33]

I did not get to watch the last couple minutes, I had streamed a couple minutes between 3-6 left and then noticed the tacky fouls! I was getting nervous myself lol.

Lucas might be a cocky little shit but as a bulls fan he really has stepped up in Rose's abstence. He's played awesome

[Roto97]

Ha!

.... Despite all that, he did it again with like 15 seconds left. Lucas acted like a cocky dirtbag toward the end of the game. I like the kid, but that was bush-league.

Agreed. He seems to fancy himself as a mini Allen Iverson. Once of these games, some big PF will give him a nice hard foul to remind him.

There is a probably a reason he has been out of the league for almost 4 years. And doesn't look like he listens to directions, which could get him glued to the bench in the playoffs. Thibs doesn't seem like the guy that would put up with that bs.

[Pivotpoint]

I don't remember him driving to the basket late. Seem to remember Raptors kept fouling right away even with a double digit defecit. I was watching the Toronto feed on NBA channel and home town announcers never said a thing. They even emphasized how Casey was using the timeouts as a learning and teaching experience.

In any case, it's amazing how everybody looks at a game from a different perspective. That perspective being profoundly influenced by what side your money is on.

[Dmoneytx]

56 pts in first quarter of Dallas game. And everyone in here LOVED the under???? I guess all the late picks on this thread are all losers. Wow.....

[Love The Action]

I don't remember him driving to the basket late. Seem to remember Raptors kept fouling right away even with a double digit defecit. I was watching the Toronto feed on NBA channel and home town announcers never said a thing. They even emphasized how Casey was using the timeouts as a learning and teaching experience.

In any case, it's amazing how everybody looks at a game from a different perspective. That perspective being profoundly influenced by what side your money is on.

Bulls announcers were talking about it. Stacey King even expressly mentioned that Thibs was giving Lucas an earful and then the camera panned in on Thibs yelling at him.

[Love The Action]

56 pts in first quarter of Dallas game. And everyone in here LOVED the under???? I guess all the late picks on this thread are all losers. Wow.....

By all means, please stay away then. You add nothing. Good luck to your future endeavors.

[Crofta]

I recall about 66 pts for the 1Q of Saturdays Knicks game and the under hit....

LAst time I checked it was a 4Q game...not 1.

[Les_Nuts]

I love a high scoring start when on one of LTAs under's

[mikea33]

Being a close game is a good thing. Teams will tighten up the defense in the 2H.

[Pivotpoint]

Bulls announcers were talking about it. Stacey King even expressly mentioned that Thibs was giving Lucas an earful and then the camera panned in on Thibs yelling at him.

How were you getting the Bulls feed? Maybe comcast? Stacey King is great, guy kills me when he gets excited.I have the NBA pkg and could only see the Toronto option and it was horrible. They focused on the Toronto bench, were having audio problems and even cut back into games late, after breaks.

[PR9]

Remember when these guys played in LA ?? The Fakers only scored 6 pts in the 3rd Quarter and about 20 pts total were scored in the entire quarter. If this is a high scoring 1st half number a 2nd half under play could be in order

[unitedlad]

Sessions is really looking like a great acquisition by the Lakers. Moving the ball really well, speeding up the pace, and bringing it hard to the hoop.

[YouHave2outs]

56 pts in first quarter of Dallas game. And everyone in here LOVED the under???? I guess all the late picks on this thread are all losers. Wow.....

cool avatar. we're all winning today buddy.

[mikea33]

Sessions is a prime example of why teams, even in a good position, need to take chances to improve their team.
As an avid celtics fan, Danny Ainge made the right move trading Perk for Green. Had he not been injured (almost died) he would probably be the leading scorer, minutes, etc. etc.

[PR9]

cant touch that 2nd half line. It could be a crazy and unpredictable half

[meader99]

I love a high scoring start when on one of LTAs under's

I don't love it, but it generally pans out.....

[mikea33]

Im avoiding 2H plays from here on out. Unless line is spot on or better (depending on situational aspects) than closing line.

I took Orlando -1 in 2H, they were up 13 at half...probably an angry bet........but they were up 16 with 40 seconds left and the ball, they drain the clock get a shitty shot and Phoenix goes down and bangs a triple.

[Catchn_Picks]

56 pts in first quarter of Dallas game. And everyone in here LOVED the under???? I guess all the late picks on this thread are all losers. Wow.....

And that would mean what? A 2-1 night. That's over 66%. (Let's ignore last night's sweep, but it we counted last night, LTA is right now at 4-0 over the last two nights so far.)

With bankroll compounding 66% would allow you to control the world over a period of time. 66% is incredibly powerful, hard to maintain...may not even be possible over an extended period of time.

Read "The Smart Money" by Michael Konik. He gets hired by the Billy Walters sports betting organization in Vegas. They were routinely making $200,000+ bets during football season and they built this huge organization on the backs of 56-58% winners.

BOL

[fitguy67]

Good post catch...

a few pages back people were discussing bet-sizing (as %bankroll) ideas/methods...i know from a previous post, that you managed to patiently grow a smallish roll into something like quadruple its initial amount...

could you weigh in on the sorts of things that helped you do it?

[mikea33]

I know the under is in some trouble regardless, but jeez these officials are horrible! Its one of the most "veteran" groups there is. But boy there calling a one-sided game, and blowing that whistle a LOT.

[dlunc3]

need a 38 pt 4th quarter to push... been plenty of them this yr

we have some hope

[Sport_Fish]

lol you know ur on the bad side of variance when Gasol is hitting 3s =/

[mikea33]

Anybody watching this game???
Gasol is killing this under since the tip-off. he's playing lethargic defense, no help defense resulting in good looks for mavs, and hes splashing every shot he takes. dirk is literally going by him at will and dirk is not the quickest.

[Crofta]

Doesnt help when Lakers are shooting 57% and 47% from 3's.

Gasol even hitting treys....whats next Bynum???

[YouHave2outs]

thanks for posting the plays LTA.

[Catchn_Picks]

Good post catch...

a few pages back people were discussing bet-sizing (as %bankroll) ideas/methods...i know from a previous post, that you managed to patiently grow a smallish roll into something like quadruple its initial amount...

could you weigh in on the sorts of things that helped you do it?

Nothing special fitguy...I mean conservative bankroll plays, mainly 1-2 units...trying not to over commit to any one play...perseverance to value and getting edges...being able to read line movements before they happen, 65-75% correct line movement reads.

Watch LTA...mostly one unit plays..occasional multi units...takes an occasional shot...some plays jump off the page at him in the morning or night before...some are sitting waiting for just a half a point move before game time. Often if he doesn't get the move he seeks and then he lays off the play. All that hard work down the drain over a half a point. This rings especially true for me in football where you must get your number or layoff the play.

If you want to last and be a player in the game, you gotta learn to think like the bookie thinks, not like the player thinks. It is very hard when all you have ever done is bet. I ran book in LA many years ago...had a good sized organization. In all those years I never had a long time winner...never, not one, nada, none.

Over time, they all lost...movie and tv stars were the worst...ego business men that win at everything they did lost...poor bankroll management (look up "gambler's ruin", the main reason 90+% of sports gamblers lose), teasers (having to win two games instead of just one), parlays, chasing when down, increasing your bets when you lose instead of decreasing them. They were all just one bad losing streak away from destruction and then they have to sit on the sidelines and rebuild their bankroll.

You see fitguy, sports bettors only think of their plays, but bookies (your true enemy...your only competition) only think of the bettors plays, not themselves. They wait for you to bet and then react, they do not make the initial choice expect they get to set the line (again based mostly on their read of you as a player).

Lastly, variance..."the devil within". For over 5 years I played some mean poker and got away from sports betting. When you become good at poker you learn to totally understand and accept variance. All it takes is about a year of runner-runner suckouts on the turn and river and you understand that anything can happen with probability and mathematics. Yea, I get pissed off still when the player does not hit their free throw at the end of the game to cover. But there were hundreds of moments during the course of the game that were equally as important for your loss. I have learned to get over it mostly in a matter of minutes. I try to never let it affect my game.

As a book, I would have never liked to get a player like LTA. Smart, disciplined, puts in the time, student of the game...wouldn't play if he could not get an edge at the sport. This is a player you do not want to bet into you. Makes him a good handicapper to follow though.

I hope this gives you some food for thought.

BOL as always...nice night again LTA.

[mikea33]

Tough wave in the ocean of sports investing in that Lakers game.
I did not expect that surge from the Lakers offense on the road.

[Dmoneytx]

And that would mean what? A 2-1 night. That's over 66%. (Let's ignore last night's sweep, but it we counted last night, LTA is right now at 4-0 over the last two nights so far.)

With bankroll compounding 66% would allow you to control the world over a period of time. 66% is incredibly powerful, hard to maintain...may not even be possible over an extended period of time.

Read "The Smart Money" by Michael Konik. He gets hired by the Billy Walters sports betting organization in Vegas. They were routinely making $200,000+ bets during football season and they built this huge organization on the backs of 56-58% winners.

BOL

I made a basic comment about the score. I stated nothing but a fact, no opinions. I lost about 2% of my BR on this under. I do over 70% of my plays on tennis. I teach tennis for a living & know the stats and players as good as anyone I have come across. I can't make any plays on the early basketball games bec I run a club, so I try to use threads, like this, for advice on the late games. I do apologize bec I got Sonny's Thread confused with this one!!! I visited his thread last night and they RAVED about the over for OKC game. So I played it and lost about 3% of my BR. SO, I THOUGHT I went to this thread two nights in a row and got a REALLY lopsided loss the only two times I popped in. But it WAS only this one night. I had a killer day today at the Sony Open and I know quite well how to manage my money when it comes to this never ending battle. I do appreciate the tip, but it sounded sarcastic and I did get a pretty good laugh when I came back in here and read it.
Seems to me, like some people on here, have nothing better to do than to sit here ALL night and post responses to a simple comment like the one I made. That to me is fairly depressing and I actually feel bad for most of those people. Now THAT, is an opinion.

And to comment to LTAs response from earlier, you are correct. I do not add anything to this thread. But, from what I see, if I just watch the games (like any human being can) and make comments on the refs making bad calls or this player can't hit the 3........then I "would" be contributing??? Almost all the comments on here are just stating the facts of the game. How is that contributing to anything?? After reading your response and then reading the comments to follow, no one is contributing by just saying Gasol is hitting 3's or the refs are blowing the whistles like crazy.

I hate to blast this long response, but I made one simple mistake confusing two threads I visited one time each. And if anyone on this entire site, is actually trying to change their lives or get rich by gambling, then I really feel sorry for them. I have done this for 15 years and I do it for fun. The cash outs are just bonus and I stick to my tennis religously. And the comment about my avatar???? For real??? LOL. That's my wife and she is the best woman I have ever know

Whoever made that comment, is just an idiot. Sorry, but that was uncalled for. BOL to everyone.

[r1kkie]

Another winning day! Thank you LTA!

[YouHave2outs]

I played some mean poker and got away from sports betting. When you become good at poker you learn to totally understand and accept variance.

yup