LTA's NBA Plays

**doin** · 03-21-12, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by Vasco

If Marion doesn't play do you still like the under in this spot?

via love the action:

Play #1

Bulls/Raptors under (185) 1x (Locked)
...........t when I make them. I have this game set at 182 with Rose and would adjust it even lower with his absence. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**Les_Nuts** · 03-21-12, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by doin

via love the action:

Play #1

Bulls/Raptors under (185) 1x (Locked)
...........t when I make them. I have this game set at 182 with Rose and would adjust it even lower with his absence. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Marion plays for Dallas

**doin** · 03-21-12, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

Marion plays for Dallas

bet i need to edit.

**Highness** · 03-21-12, 04:12 PM

Can you convince me that the books are actually right how they are valuing the Knicks right now? I think they are way high especially with the garbage offense they are now running. I always, always defer to the books know better than me if I'm not doing any exact analysis, but I can't shake this one. It seems they have the Sixers as about equal the Knicks at -4.5 with the Knicks having played last night. Seems ludicrous to me. Hawes is back. What gives?

**JM92** · 03-21-12, 04:20 PM

I thought it would be a trap line of sorts but the line is actually moving in the Knicks way with lots of bookies juicing the 4.5 on the Knicks already. I love Philly here and think they run away with it but probably won't play. Better things on the board and already got 2 units on the Under in Dallas. Still might play the Clippers though. But it does concern me a little bit the small RLM.

**Love The Action** · 03-21-12, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/21/2012

Play #1

Bulls/Raptors under (185) 1x (Locked)

I will have a crazy day at work today, so will try to post my plays but they might not be right when I make them. I have this game set at 182 with Rose and would adjust it even lower with his absence. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Lakers/Mavs under (190.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 185.5 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Magic (-8) 1x (Locked)

Not a ton of value, but I expect the Magic to come out sharp with extra motivation after putting up two games worth of bricks and only scoring 59 in its last game. The suns are on b2b, a situation in which they have actually performed ok in ATS, but in this game should struggle. Phoenix's defensive weaknesses will be exposed by orlando's inside/outside game, provided the magic finally hit some shots. I think they will and I am rolling with the magic for 1x. Good luck.

**Gtawatson** · 03-21-12, 04:28 PM

it is the time of year to start banging every Miami heat moneyline.....

they will win 90% of games the rest of the season

**Speedy88** · 03-21-12, 04:29 PM

Good luck LTA, I like the two unders. My lean is ORL as well, but Suns have been a covering machine. But I think you got at least 2 winners, hopefully 3.

**dlunc3** · 03-21-12, 04:37 PM

Following a game vs the Miami Heat this season, teams are not covering ATS in their following game 58% of the time... Along with your other reasons, I agree.. the Magic are in a good spot tonight.

BOL

**JM92** · 03-21-12, 04:46 PM

Magic after scoring 50 against the Celtics? Went to Indy and whooped the Pacers for 102-83 win. Excellent play LTA

**Highness** · 03-21-12, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #3

Magic (-8) 1x (Locked)

Not a ton of value, but I expect the Magic to come out sharp with extra motivation after putting up two games worth of bricks and only scoring 59 in its last game. The suns are on b2b, a situation in which they have actually performed ok in ATS, but in this game should struggle. Phoenix's defensive weaknesses will be exposed by orlando's inside/outside game, provided the magic finally hit some shots. I think they will and I am rolling with the magic for 1x. Good luck.

Defending the perimeter is by far the team's best strength on defense so I don't really understand this. They matchup really well against Orlando because their biggest defensive weakness' are guarding fast, scoring PGs which Orlando doesn't have and especially PFs who work in the post. Ryan Anderson gets all his effectiveness from outside shooting. That completely nullifies all of Frye's defensive shortcomings. I also would take issue with the Suns being a weak defensive team. They are probably right around league average

I have no idea what the right bet is I just thought that reasoning was off

**Speedy88** · 03-21-12, 05:05 PM

All situational angles point towards taking Orlando (PHX on a b2b, ORL coming off a horrible loss, PHX played MIA last night, etc.), but I actually think PHX matches up pretty well.

Two great 3-point shooting teams, this could be interesting. However, if PHX has tired legs and their shots aren't falling, ORL should cover easily.

**Hw101** · 03-21-12, 05:48 PM

Loving the plays tonight.

**Highness** · 03-21-12, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

All situational angles point towards taking Orlando (PHX on a b2b, ORL coming off a horrible loss, PHX played MIA last night, etc.)

This is all completely useless as such common information is already priced in

**yankeekansan** · 03-21-12, 06:07 PM

Tailing LTA and then some...

Orlando Magic -8 2X
Knicks +4.5 .5X
Bulls to win 1X
Bulls/Craptors UNDER 183.5 1X
Thunder/Clippers OVER 197 1X
Lakers/Mavs UNDER 190 2X

This is as big of a card as Saturday's. Let's get these games!

Good luck

**Highness** · 03-21-12, 06:13 PM

Big bet on the sixers, one time I will say I know something the books don't

**G-manFan** · 03-21-12, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by Highness

Big bet on the sixers, one time I will say I know something the books don't

And what might that be, if you would let us be privileged to that information?

**PistolPete13** · 03-21-12, 06:24 PM

Love the Dallas under as the last 2 times these two met were under 190. In fact 6 of L8 were under 190.
I also like Dallas -4 (-120). Dallas with a day off and Lakers coming off long game against Houston. Last 2 times Lakers played b2b, the second game was not pretty. 1 loss to Wash (on road) and 1 OT win vs. New Orleans (on road). Rolling with Dallas buying 1/2 point.

**TC Woods** · 03-21-12, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by Highness

Big bet on the sixers, one time I will say I know something the books don't

Over half way thru the 1st qt and they've scored 2 points... is that what you knew?

**Love The Action** · 03-21-12, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Highness

Defending the perimeter is by far the team's best strength on defense so I don't really understand this. They matchup really well against Orlando because their biggest defensive weakness' are guarding fast, scoring PGs which Orlando doesn't have and especially PFs who work in the post. Ryan Anderson gets all his effectiveness from outside shooting. That completely nullifies all of Frye's defensive shortcomings. I also would take issue with the Suns being a weak defensive team. They are probably right around league average

Originally posted by Highness

This is all completely useless as such common information is already priced in

I figured you would be back around as we got closer to baseball season. I trust all is well with you.

I'm not sure how a Phoenix team that gives up nearly 50% of all defensive shots from 18-23 feet or from 3 point range, but ranks in the bottom 10 of defending such shots according to their EFG%, is a good perimeter defensive team? You can claim anything you want, but you need the stats to back it up. Although Phoenix has improved their defense over the last month, they are far from a good perimeter defense. In addition, they have no one to defend DHoward down low and I expect a dominate game from Orlando in the post.
Glad to have you back....try not to get booted so fast this time.

**Love The Action** · 03-21-12, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

All situational angles point towards taking Orlando (PHX on a b2b, ORL coming off a horrible loss, PHX played MIA last night, etc.), but I actually think PHX matches up pretty well.

Two great 3-point shooting teams, this could be interesting. However, if PHX has tired legs and their shots aren't falling, ORL should cover easily.

Phoenix is an average 3 point shooting team according to the stats...good luck SP88

**Love The Action** · 03-21-12, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

How come lakers under isn't a multi-unit play? I ask because usually 5+ points of value results in a bigger play. Just wondering if there are negative situational factors or ref assignments that are holding you back? Would be interesting to hear your thoughts as I love the play

There's a lot of value, but that does not take into account Ramon Sessions on the Lakers. I suspect they start playing faster now. I'm not willing to bet more than 1x on a new-look Lakers team. I do, however, expect this game to take on an intense, playoff-atmosphere defensive battle at the end which should result in an under game. GL

**Love The Action** · 03-21-12, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by mikea33

Lta do you like the under in Philly? Nyk have been playing solid D and philly at home is always great D. Obviously more to the lean on my phone thougg

Yes I do....I didn't bet it because it opened at 194 and was bet all the way down. I had it at 190 and didn't want to take it at 191. I would have played it at 192 or higher. GL

**JM92** · 03-21-12, 06:35 PM

Phoenix has some good 1x1 defenders, even give a pretty good rating to grant hill, and brown and dudley are also good. Still, has LTA said, they are a little below average in terms of defense, why? Their rotations can suck, if you move the ball around well, they will get lost numerous times. That said, I think they match-up perfectly to Orlando who won't be hurt by Hill's ability, since most of their players wont even try to create off the drible without a pick or a pump fake first.

**Love The Action** · 03-21-12, 06:36 PM

Damn...Bulls/Toronto scored 7 points in the last minute of the 1q to make it 50 even....still, I would rather have a higher scoring start and lower scoring finish.

**eastern2** · 03-21-12, 06:38 PM

the 76ers lol started off shooting 1 for 15

**eastern2** · 03-21-12, 06:39 PM

LTA, is the card done for the night?

**ph0208** · 03-21-12, 06:42 PM

Got the Bulls/Raptors live U185.5 at 2.88 lets get em!

**Love The Action** · 03-21-12, 06:58 PM

Really quite tempted to play the Clip/OKC over despite the Clipper b2b o/u numbers....solid value after the line move dropped it down to 195 range. Would like to get 194 and it's not happening....

**mikea33** · 03-21-12, 07:00 PM

Possible play ??

**Love The Action** · 03-21-12, 07:07 PM

Toronto just had to hit that last second 3....damn.

**JM92** · 03-21-12, 07:08 PM

It was a 2. Though it took us off pace again, just by a little bit. Bet365 is projecting 185.5. We're good my friends, we're good

**Love The Action** · 03-21-12, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by JM92

It was a 2. Though it took us off pace again, just by a little bit. Bet365 is projecting 185.5. We're good my friends, we're good

Good luck.

Monitoring from my phone on the train...went from 49-43 with 4 seconds left to 52-43 at half. Figured it was a 3....

**mikea33** · 03-21-12, 07:13 PM

Pace is overrated. In a moderately close to the total game it will always come down to the 4th Q. Especially last few minutes.

Is magic worth -1 2H if I missed the -8. They look good

**JM92** · 03-21-12, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Good luck.

Monitoring from my phone on the train...went from 49-43 with 4 seconds left to 52-43 at half. Figured it was a 3....

It was 51 the score heading into half.