LTA's NBA Plays

[shimeon40]

LTA

[Redscot]

Never have 2 ugly ass games been so enjoyable to watch . Keep on grinding away bro, lets build up the BR for baseball season .

[Love The Action]

LTA

Wait....weren't you the same guy coming in here slamming me and telling everyone they should follow Henry Hill's "Chucky" plays because he has alleged "inside information" like this one: http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...ck.html?slf=27

How did that inside information work out for you last night?

[Love The Action]

Never have 2 ugly ass games been so enjoyable to watch . Keep on grinding away bro, lets build up the BR for baseball season .

What's up buddy? Hope all is well. I can't believe how soon MLB is here....I'm not ready yet. Going to take it very easy in April just like last year until the stats my model uses can gain some traction....good luck Red!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/19/2012

2 - 0 = +2.5x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

108 - 92 = +15.55x

Back to the grind....good luck!

[shimeon40]

Credit where credits due LTA..You have an army of followers..what's one more tailing along..between you,dad and wisegrumpy last night bookies were skun..Henrys only good when taking his medication.

[shimeon40]

Geez ..didn't even see henrys post..working..thankfully..henrys lost it big time..chuckys fukkin with him bigtime

[Redscot]

What's up buddy? Hope all is well. I can't believe how soon MLB is here....I'm not ready yet. Going to take it very easy in April just like last year until the stats my model uses can gain some traction....good luck Red!

Yeah man, definitely a good idea to take it slow in April, as tempting it is to jump right in it's a long season...patience is definitely key. In the mean time, I expect big things from you down the stretch and into the playoffs. When the games gain in importance you seem to hone in on them at a higher rate. Best of luck going forward.

[SlickRick1382]

LTA, any thoughts on the Clippers vs Pacers game tomorrow? Line opened at Pacers -3.5

Almost tempted to buy the hook and play the Pacers -3 at home following a pair of tough losses to New York. They had two days off to get their act together.

Thoughts?

For some reason I also like the Heat / Suns Total of 198.5 to go under.

Heat only allow 88 points per game at home. Obviously they can go off for well over 100 themselves but figuring they keep the Suns to under 90 points and should have enough of a cushion.

Just random thoughts I'm throwing out there

[Love The Action]

LTA, any thoughts on the Clippers vs Pacers game tomorrow? Line opened at Pacers -3.5

Almost tempted to buy the hook and play the Pacers -3 at home following a pair of tough losses to New York. They had two days off to get their act together.

Thoughts?

Not sure yet....wouldnt buy the hook with the pacers though. I expect this to drop to 3 at some point. Might not last long, but you should be able to get 3 if you have time to watch the lines. I have more work to do on this game. GL

[pacocn]

Lta, nice work per usual,
keep it going

[upscope]

Yeah man, definitely a good idea to take it slow in April, as tempting it is to jump right in it's a long season...patience is definitely key. In the mean time, I expect big things from you down the stretch and into the playoffs. When the games gain in importance you seem to hone in on them at a higher rate. Best of luck going forward.

No doubt Red, I still remember vividly last yrs solid baseball playoff run by LTA. Wasn't absolutely smashing it but was consistently solid. it felt good being locked in w/ little worries of losing for a month strait. Seemed like each day was either an easy winner or you were in it all the way w/ a chance.
I miss baseball

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/20/2012

Play #1

Thunder/Jazz over (203.5) 1x (Locked)

Jefferson is playing for the Jazz which should provide a big scoring boost for one of the best offensive teams in the paint and on the fast break. Both teams come in rested, so the thin air should not pose a problem. OKC is top 5 in PACE and the Jazz have been playing much faster of late. These teams have played to the under twice this season on totals of 202 and 200. In those games, okc scored over 110 but the jazz failed to break 90. Despite those games, the books open this one 2-4 points higher. I think they expect a higher scoring game tonight and I agree. The refs are mott, collins and hill, which I view as a solid crew for this play. I have this game set at 207 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[alamo]

Tremendous night again LTA

[mikea33]

LTA
Ive never bet on baseball I look forward to following ur thread and learning a lot, like the NBA! Seeing ur plays is awesome as well!

[unitedlad]

LTA, are all your plays bet on odds of evens, if not otherwise stated?

[wguan2]

Good job last night LTA. I'm looking forward to your MLB thread as well. I knew a lot about the NBA coming into this thread but I've learned a lot about money management and discipline as well as the important NBA stats such as pace, oeff, deff, etc that you so often take into account. I know MLB is completely stat driven and I even enjoyed reading the blurb you had yesterday about ballpark statistics. Very interesting stuff man. GL tonight.

I'm looking at the Memphis at Sacramento game. The side is a tough one to predict but I'm liking the over here if it gets back down to 200.5 and I think I would even take it at 201. What do you guys thinks?

[Vasco]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/20/2012Play #1Thunder/Jazz over (203.5) 1x (Locked)Jefferson is playing for the Jazz which should provide a big scoring boost for one of the best offensive teams in the paint and on the fast break. Both teams come in rested, so the thin air should not pose a problem. OKC is top 5 in PACE and the Jazz have been playing much faster of late. These teams have played to the under twice this season on totals of 202 and 200. In those games, okc scored over 110 but the jazz failed to break 90. Despite those games, the books open this one 2-4 points higher. I think they expect a higher scoring game tonight and I agree. The refs are mott, collins and hill, which I view as a solid crew for this play. I have this game set at 207 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Jazz have been playing better so I agree they should be able to crack 90 and get us that over. I'm intrigued by the Pacers/Clippers total. Looks like it opened at 186.5 and I'm surprised to see it go up to 188. Clippers have been struggling to score lately (especially at the line) and the Pacers should be looking to bounce back from the embarrassing b2b losses vs the Knicks. I like the under here but interested to hear other opinions on why this is/isn't a good play.

[dmitean]

I think that Over in Sacramento is a great bet. Both teams should easily go Over 100 points, especially with all the injured players back.

[JM92]

Not sure yet....wouldnt buy the hook with the pacers though. I expect this to drop to 3 at some point. Might not last long, but you should be able to get 3 if you have time to watch the lines. I have more work to do on this game. GL

Amazingly, once again, right on the money sir. My local is already at - 3.0

[apurvaas]

any thought on LAL HUS total?
Line opened at 192 at cris, 58% bets on Over, LAL over 6 of last 7, HUS over 8 of last 10...
Line moved to 192 to 190.5!
I am getting 191 at local and thinking of buying the half point and get at 191.5 or I may wait a lil as public will pound over in this game!

TIA

[jimmy007oc]

I don't like this Bet since we got burn by JAzz too many time. GL

[Love The Action]

I think that Over in Sacramento is a great bet. Both teams should easily go Over 100 points, especially with all the injured players back.

My man Dmitean! You are quickly becoming one of the better contributors to this thread with some solid information. Thanks!

However, I was waiting for you to bump your comments from yesterday and admit you were a bit off in your asssessment like you bumped them over the weekend when your asssessment was spot on. Come on now buddy, it needs to work both ways. You cant only take credit when you are right and not "fess up" when you are not. Ok, ok, just kidding....I had to mention that and have a little fun with ya after you said you wouldnt have even taken under 190 in last nights celts/hawks game

Back to serious business at hand. As far as the sac town over, I am leery of backing overs when teams are getting acclimated to new rotations. In addition, I question whether sacramento can put together a full 48 minutes of scoring against one of the better defenses in the game. That's a pass for me, but I hope you cash it! Good luck dude.

[Love The Action]

I don't like this Bet since we got burn by JAzz too many time. GL

Your call...good luck.

[Love The Action]

any thought on LAL HUS total?
Line opened at 192 at cris, 58% bets on Over, LAL over 6 of last 7, HUS over 8 of last 10...
Line moved to 192 to 190.5!
I am getting 191 at local and thinking of buying the half point and get at 191.5 or I may wait a lil as public will pound over in this game!

TIA

I need to see how the lakers play with sessions for a few games before I bet their games. GL

[Love The Action]

I don't like this Bet since we got burn by JAzz too many time. GL

Your call...good luck.

[Love The Action]

I think that Over in Sacramento is a great bet. Both teams should easily go Over 100 points, especially with all the injured players back.

My man Dmitean! You are quickly becoming one of the better contributors to this thread with some solid information. Thanks!

However, I was waiting for you to bump your comments from yesterday and admit you were a bit off in your asssessment like you bumped them over the weekend when your asssessment was spot on. Come on now buddy, it needs to work both ways. You cant only take credit when you are right and not "fess up" when you are not. Ok, ok, just kidding....I had to mention that and have a little fun with ya after you said you wouldnt have even taken under 190 in last nights celts/hawks game

Back to serious business at hand. As far as the sac town over, I am leery of backing overs when teams are getting acclimated to new rotations. In addition, I question whether sacramento can put together a full 48 minutes of scoring against one of the better defenses in the game. That's a pass for me, but I hope you cash it! Good luck dude.

[Kurtz]

Jefferson playing for Jazz+ Jazz playing MUCH better as of late= Take the Jazz as home dog. We tempt the fates and extinguish the curse of the Jazz from LT's thread forever.

[talbotia]

Variance will never keep you down forever, nice way to swing things back on track.
keep it up!

[unitedlad]

LTA, could you please answer my question as I am confused as to how your unit system works. How can you place 2.5x (2.5 units I'd imagine) on winning bets and then win 2.5x unless the odds were 2.00 (evens)? Especially as you stated 0.5x of that went on to a bet of odds -120 (1.80)? Sorry I may just be getting mixed up but could you, or one of the other regulars in this thread explain, so I can understand your money management system and unit system better?

[dmitean]

My man Dmitean! You are quickly becoming one of the better contributors to this thread with some solid information. Thanks!

However, I was waiting for you to bump your comments from yesterday and admit you were a bit off in your asssessment like you bumped them over the weekend when your asssessment was spot on. Come on now buddy, it needs to work both ways. You cant only take credit when you are right and not "fess up" when you are not. Ok, ok, just kidding....I had to mention that and have a little fun with ya after you said you wouldnt have even taken under 190 in last nights celts/hawks game

Back to serious business at hand. As far as the sac town over, I am leery of backing overs when teams are getting acclimated to new rotations. In addition, I question whether sacramento can put together a full 48 minutes of scoring against one of the better defenses in the game. That's a pass for me, but I hope you cash it! Good luck dude.

I can show you several of my comments when I was right and didn't bump it. I'm not trying to make a name for myself on the forum, it's even contrary to my intentions to be honest.
You were right about Under in Atlanta and we both were right about the Under in Orlando, though I stayed away from both bets.
I got zero desire to take any credit, I just really couldn't understand the logic behind Under play in that particular play and that was the only bump I did in this thread, despite being wrong and right on more than one occasion...

As for Sacramento, I said already, as a rule of a thumb, I believe that any total where Kings total is below 100 points, I have a strong Over lean. Kings at home worth 100 points and while they have droughts sometimes and that kills their scoring, overall, I been very successful with this system in the last three seasons.
Of course I would have rather see Tyreke out for this one, but I guess someone wants the bet to be a bit more interesting

Good luck on the Over play in Utah! I will probably tail you on this one, but really have zero opinion there. Utah are a team that unless they play Golden State, I have hard time capping them. One of the teams I think I bet the least on their games this season.

[mbs4]

LTA, could you please answer my question as I am confused as to how your unit system works. How can you place 2.5x (2.5 units I'd imagine) on winning bets and then win 2.5x unless the odds were 2.00 (evens)? Especially as you stated 0.5x of that went on to a bet of odds -120 (1.80)? Sorry I may just be getting mixed up but could you, or one of the other regulars in this thread explain, so I can understand your money management system and unit system better?

2.5 is the "to win" amount.

[unitedlad]

2.5 is the "to win" amount.

So when there is a '1x' beside each play, you are winning 1x? Then how do we know how much is being staked and what odds LTA obtained for each play?

[YouHave2outs]

So when there is a '1x' beside each play, you are winning 1x? Then how do we know how much is being staked and what odds LTA obtained for each play?

he plays everything at -110 unless he buys a half point, then -120. he subtracts 1.1 or 1.2 on losses.

[unitedlad]

he plays everything at -110 unless he buys a half point, then -120. he subtracts 1.1 or 1.2 on losses.

OK, thanks for clearing that up!