LTA's NBA Plays

**Highness** · 03-23-12, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by PR9

Again, I just have a feeling with following the local media and the happenings of the team. The Heat, since the start of last season, go on runs where they cover a bunch, and runs where even in the wins, they dont cover a bunch.

Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

**PR9** · 03-23-12, 12:26 PM

^^ put all your money on Detroit 1st Q and 2nd Q. I have 2u on the Heat there

GL

**Pross1** · 03-23-12, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by PR9

the only thing is the dreaded back home game after long west coast road trip. Like what happened to Milwaukee last night, they looked lackadaisical all game long back home after covering 8 games in a row. This is common for teams after such long roadies. They get back home and their mind is not on basketball. Have to go buy gifts for the kids because you were away, gotta bang the wife or girlfriend, take care of commitments, friends, family matter etc - more often than not their minds are not on basketball after a long road trip.

I'm leaning Heat 1st Q or 1st half here . They've had a couple days off and didn't play well out of the gate on 2 days off the last 2 times. And they have OKC and Dallas coming up and think they will start covering games, DET as a tune up. They go in spurts, they cover a bunch in a row and don't cover a bunch in a row (in their wins). I just feel we're approaching a time where they will cover a bunch of games like they did 3 or 4 weeks ago. Or at least, cover more than they have lately

Thanks for the input. GL on whatever you decide to roll with.

**PR9** · 03-23-12, 12:35 PM

Lakers seem like another good 1st Q play. If 1st Q doesnt hit I'm doubling up on 2nd quarter. Port on a road b2b and they dont match up with lakers at all after the trades. Lakers will look to start well after looking poor against utah in their last home game.

Port was perfect from the line last night and shot double-digit 3's. I don't see that happening again on a road b2b. Lakers also pumped a bit after the trades

ps- don't mean to derail LTA's thread, just mentioning since on the subject.

BOL everyone

**bmurphy003** · 03-23-12, 12:44 PM

Lake

LTA-- any value in Lakers -9 at home? Since the acquisition of Sessions it seems to me that the holes in their offense have been filled and they played lights out Wednesday night. With the Trailblazers basically out of the playoff run I don't see much motivation on the road, not to mention they haven't won b2b since Jan 24th. Over also looks promising at 194. Over is 10-2 in Lakers last 12 games as a favorite. Look forward to your input.

**Vasco** · 03-23-12, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #3

Bucks/Bobcats over (199.5) 1x (Locked)

Im taking this now because maggette was switched to probable and I think that keeps this game in the 200 range with a closer around 201. This is a classic over spot with two bad teams that like to play fast and with no incentive to play any defense in this game. I expect the players to try and pad their offensive stats tonight. No time for an indepth writeup, but I have this game set at 201.5 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Damn, this shot to 202.5 almost immediately. Is it still playable at this number? Do you think it's more likely to come back down slightly, or go up to 203? I really loved the play at 200.5, so I think I'm gonna still play it and hope for a 110-100 kinda game. Any lean on the Jazz/Nuggets total? I'm leaning over and I'm a little surprised it's 207 right now and not in the 210-211 range.

**dmitean** · 03-23-12, 01:43 PM

Spurs in B2B2B tonight, first leg.

**BigBurk** · 03-23-12, 02:01 PM

Spurs/Mavs total at 200.5 now.

**EricZ116** · 03-23-12, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by Vasco

Damn, this shot to 202.5 almost immediately. Is it still playable at this number? Do you think it's more likely to come back down slightly, or go up to 203? I really loved the play at 200.5, so I think I'm gonna still play it and hope for a 110-100 kinda game. Any lean on the Jazz/Nuggets total? I'm leaning over and I'm a little surprised it's 207 right now and not in the 210-211 range.

He clearly wrote he has this game set at 201.5... Think for yourself if a play is logical at 202.5.

And no, that doesn't mean you should play the under... But the value in the over seems gone.

**llevin11** · 03-23-12, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by shimeon40

could've..would've...should've...

Hey Shiteon40 - leave your f'ing comments out of this thread. I have yet to see any contributions worthwhile from your ass. Your all talk and provide nothing in this thread. You're useless

**SlickRick1382** · 03-23-12, 06:38 PM

LTA. Any thoughts on buying out of the Celtics / Boston Total even though it's still been moving in our favor or just ride it out?

**Love The Action** · 03-23-12, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

LTA. Any thoughts on buying out of the Celtics / Boston Total even though it's still been moving in our favor or just ride it out?

Why would I do that?

**ultrasouth** · 03-23-12, 06:52 PM

Lol...BOL on your plays today LTA

**SlickRick1382** · 03-23-12, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Why would I do that?

Thought you said earlier you were considering it and that the referee assignment wasn't that favorable. I must of misread.

**Love The Action** · 03-23-12, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

Thought you said earlier you were considering it and that the referee assignment wasn't that favorable. I must of misread.

No, no, no....was just saying that I was considering a 2x play last night when I locked it up, but wanted to wait until the ref assignments to decide. The ref assignments are not that favorable so I kept this at 1x play. However, I rarely buy out and this turned out to be a great play win or lose. Both the Charlotte over and this play were both great plays regardless of whether they cash. Anytime you can beat the closer by 3 points or more, those are high percentage winners over time.

Good luck tonight buddy....I know you must be getting slammed right now with tax season so don't work too hard.

**PR9** · 03-23-12, 07:08 PM

Heat 1st quarter

showed much more energy than pistons early

now dont have to worry about full game backdoor cover and all that crap. Bet won , game over. move on to next play

**CaptainNemo89** · 03-23-12, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by PR9

Heat 1st quarter

showed much more energy than pistons early

nice call man... nothin better than a hit that also sticks it in a troll's face

**Pross1** · 03-23-12, 07:11 PM

Bos/Phi down to 176.5 at Bookmaker

**aussieH** · 03-23-12, 07:15 PM

Hey LTA why do you favour long term ref trends rather short term trends in the referees. In my sport (AFL) they umpires tend to come out stronger on certain rules and worse still have a weekly focus on certain decisions. Of course the umpiring division denies this mostly.

With basketball I would think a short term focus on certain rules could have a bigger influence on games. Not sure if the Basketball Refs do have crackdowns on certain rules from time to time though.

**MrXYZ** · 03-23-12, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by Pross1

Bos/Phi down to 176.5 at Bookmaker

I bought out at 177. Good luck everyone.

**bmur714** · 03-23-12, 08:00 PM

Double post...

**bmur714** · 03-23-12, 08:01 PM

Pietrus got some serious whiplash on that foul... Doesn't look good... He's going out on a stretcher

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-23-12, 08:13 PM

There she goes over the total...thanks LTA!

**alamo** · 03-23-12, 08:15 PM

40pts scored in Dallas in the final 3mins of the 1st qtr and the first 3mins of the 2nd qtr including 7 threes in a row.

**alamo** · 03-23-12, 08:19 PM

FOUR technicals called already in the 1h in Philly. Never seen that before in a half.

**eastern2** · 03-23-12, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by alamo

40pts scored in Dallas in the final 3mins of the 1st qtr and the first 3mins of the 2nd qtr including 7 threes in a row.

thats rough

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-23-12, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by eastern2

thats rough

Hey guys were winning this SA/DAL under total...183 pace.

**eastern2** · 03-23-12, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

Hey guys were winning this SA/DAL under total...183 pace.

yea looking good - thought we may sneak out the bos/phil under but damn terrible 3rd Q

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-23-12, 09:07 PM

Complete and total defensive collapse by Boston in the third quarter.

**Roto97** · 03-23-12, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by eastern2

yea looking good - thought we may sneak out the bos/phil under but damn terrible 3rd Q

yea, I dont think i have seen philly score 37 points in a quarter all year.

**Love The Action** · 03-23-12, 11:36 PM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/23/2012

2 - 1 = +0.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

112 - 97 = +13.95x

Good luck on Saturday.

**pacocn** · 03-23-12, 11:39 PM

Lta, nice work

**XGamer** · 03-23-12, 11:51 PM

Chi/tor opens at 184.5, would this be a under play?

**alamo** · 03-24-12, 12:00 AM

Solid as always LTA. Thanks for all your hard work.

**Les_Nuts** · 03-24-12, 12:06 AM

I have taken a couple of early totals that I like the look of. My book had them a great numbers compared to the rest of the market as well.
Raptors/bulls under 185
bucks/pacers over 201.5

GL tomorrow and thanks for the plays LTA