LTA's NBA Plays

**ronnieseah** · 03-24-12, 12:40 AM

this should be a strong over play

Originally posted by XGamer

Chi/tor opens at 184.5, would this be a under play?

**pacocn** · 03-24-12, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

Lta, i like the Magic/Cavs under 193 today,
does your model indicate any value on this
play today. I really like it.

I hope someone tailed
this play was my easiest cash of the day

**pacocn** · 03-24-12, 12:52 AM

Lta, i am gearing up for "value plays" mlb,
but i got a nice run going in "get on board"
come on by and share your thoughts. Your input
and analysis is always appreciated. 13-3 last 16

**Pick'nParlays** · 03-24-12, 12:55 AM

lets get some

**dmitean** · 03-24-12, 05:14 AM

Nice work LTA!

**bmur714** · 03-24-12, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by XGamer

Chi/tor opens at 184.5, would this be a under play?

Originally posted by ronnieseah

this should be a strong over play

Just curious why this would be a strong over play? The last game they played on 3/21 the final score was 176 despite a 4th quarter run by CHI outscoring TOR 32-13. That game was a b2b for TOR with CHI coming off of 1 day's rest. This game tonight is another b2b for TOR coming off of a huge win against the Knicks and with CHI getting 2 days rest. The last game they played against TOR at home the final score was 141. With DeRozan tweaking his ankle last night (he's playing today) why would this game point to the over? I'm sure LTA's model will provide us with some quantitative data backing the under but for me looking at it from a situational point of view the under should be the right play.

**Arty** · 03-24-12, 11:10 AM

LTA, has your model ever been like 10+ points off with the actual spread, and if so what were the results?

**BigBoi** · 03-24-12, 11:15 AM

LTA, I know you dont cap basketball but you got any action plays for the Elite 8 games today?

**Love The Action** · 03-24-12, 12:15 PM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/24/2012

Play #1

Pacers/Bucks under (205) 1x (Locked)

This is the number I have been waiting for so I'm jumping on this play now. Getting 205 gives us coverage over the top 28 most common final scores in the NBA and I just don't see this game ending quite that high. The books opened this one up with value on the under and the line movement has only added to it, leaving too much on the table to pass up. I have this game set at 199 and when you look at the situational factors, I think the under is the clear play. Both teams are playing on a b2b2b and 4 in 5, while both teams played to high scoring games last night. In fact both teams shot around 52% from the field, while Indy hit almost 64% of its three point shots. Those types of numbers are very difficult to sustain day in and day out, especially when you consider the fatigue both teams are feeling and which will affect their shooting legs. This game is a division battle which has playoff implications and should be an intense fight. Instead of a lightning fast pace like Milwaukee has been playing, I think both teams slow it down a bit and focus on half-court sets. Despite their recent games, Indy remains a top 10 defensive team and I suspect they are not going to want to get into a shootout with Milwaukee considering that is Milwaukee's strength. The reason Indy lost to Phoenix is because they got away from their strengths and tried to win with offense. I think Vogal will try to slow this one down and both teams will oblige because of the fatigue affect. The refs are rather neutral and I think we should expect around 45-50 ft attempts tonight. As long as we don't get above those numbers, this game should in the high 190's. This number is one of the highest either team has faced all season and I think there is too much value to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**dmitean** · 03-24-12, 12:39 PM

Took last night Under both in Indiana and on Milwaukee and got burnt. Still believe there is a lot of value in this bet, so I will take the Under today as well. BOL!

**Vasco** · 03-24-12, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/24/2012

Play #1

Pacers/Bucks under (205) 1x (Locked)

This is the number I have been waiting for so I'm jumping on this play now. Getting 205 gives us coverage over the top 28 most common final scores in the NBA and I just don't see this game ending quite that high. The books opened this one up with value on the under and the line movement has only added to it, leaving too much on the table to pass up. I have this game set at 199 and when you look at the situational factors, I think the under is the clear play. Both teams are playing on a b2b2b and 4 in 5, while both teams played to high scoring games last night. In fact both teams shot around 52% from the field, while Indy hit almost 64% of its three point shots. Those types of numbers are very difficult to sustain day in and day out, especially when you consider the fatigue both teams are feeling and which will affect their shooting legs. This game is a division battle which has playoff implications and should be an intense fight. Instead of a lightning fast pace like Milwaukee has been playing, I think both teams slow it down a bit and focus on half-court sets. Despite their recent games, Indy remains a top 10 defensive team and I suspect they are not going to want to get into a shootout with Milwaukee considering that is Milwaukee's strength. The reason Indy lost to Phoenix is because they got away from their strengths and tried to win with offense. I think Vogal will try to slow this one down and both teams will oblige because of the fatigue affect. The refs are rather neutral and I think we should expect around 45-50 ft attempts tonight. As long as we don't get above those numbers, this game should in the high 190's. This number is one of the highest either team has faced all season and I think there is too much value to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

LTA, any thoughts on the Chi/Tor total of 184? Seems like a very similar spot that we cashed on Wednesday with the game ending at 176. Any major differences in this game as opposed to the game in Toronto? Appreciate the input.

**mikea33** · 03-24-12, 05:52 PM

Big card big night gl everyone!

**mikea33** · 03-24-12, 05:57 PM

What else got your eye LTA?

**aussieH** · 03-24-12, 06:11 PM

Looks like everyone has lost their money. Thread is very quiet.

**G-manFan** · 03-24-12, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by aussieH

Looks like everyone has lost their money. Thread is very quiet.

No, just a perfect day to be outside and unplugged.

**Love The Action** · 03-24-12, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by G-manFan

No, just a perfect day to be outside and unplugged.

Exactly! Hung out at the park with the fam all day

**Love The Action** · 03-24-12, 07:21 PM

Card is final for the night. Possible 2x play for Sunday. Good luck tonight

**mikea33** · 03-24-12, 07:24 PM

Lets get it!! Thanks lta

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-24-12, 08:05 PM

BOl LTA

**Jago2008** · 03-24-12, 08:18 PM

This pacers/bucks games is ridiculous, there is absolutely no defense and if there isn't a shot made the refs are calling shooting fouls. Too bad I have to watch the NBA companion. Anyone have access to a live feed?

**MrXYZ** · 03-24-12, 08:28 PM

Wow, no defense & they just can't miss at the moment. Surely they can't keep this up in the 2nd half.

**Jago2008** · 03-24-12, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Wow, no defense & they just can't miss at the moment. Surely they can't keep this up in the 2nd half.

I agree completely, the 4th quarter should help us in this game. LTA always has God on his side regardless, even if this line doesn't hit, many more will. With that said, we need a 99 point 2nd half, I got the line @ 204.5.

lets hope for some damn defense.

**No coincidences** · 03-24-12, 09:13 PM

Shooting fouls every time down the court.

**fitguy67** · 03-24-12, 09:24 PM

it's so hard to guage teams' efforts to win at this stage in a season...a lot of the time it seems much more like dancing (as in all-star game fashion) than really fighting for a win...basketball has always been more subject to this than other team sports like hockey/baseball/soccer where you never get the feeling teams are more interested in creating "razzle dazzle" than fighting for a "W"

problem is magnified greatly by the power referees have to punish gritty defense with free-throws...helps explain the "parting of the red sea" on drives to the basket when teams/players are in foul trouble...

the long and short of it is...under bets especially are painful (and maddening) to watch...you feel like your watching "sports entertainment" rather than sports competition

...we won't really see real trench warfare battles till the playoffs...and by then baseball will thankfully be giving us tons of always-highly-contested regular-season games

**Jago2008** · 03-24-12, 09:29 PM

Going to Hedge with GS. This game is going over.

**alamo** · 03-24-12, 09:29 PM

Both teams have already combined for a 140 shot attempts and there's still nearly a full qtr to go.

**my6sen** · 03-24-12, 09:35 PM

kiss good nite the under

**Love The Action** · 03-24-12, 09:45 PM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/25/2012

Play #1

Suns/Cavaliers over (199) 2.5x (Locked)

This is the game I mentioned earlier and my local just opened up at 199. I have this game set at 205, giving us 6 full points of value in this matchup. Out to eat right now but I will try to get a writeup posted tomorrow. I may add to this after ref assignments are released but for now I am rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

**alamo** · 03-25-12, 02:21 AM

Will be with you on this LTA. Lets get it !

**Dtown13** · 03-25-12, 02:40 AM

Tough beat on the Pacers/Bucks under. Lets get this one LTA...

**ronnieseah** · 03-25-12, 02:54 AM

sorry for the late reply, i dont handicap game neither am i a monday quarterback.
i just use a simple system, whenever a team had a run of 3 consecutive over/under or win/lose ATS, i will bet the other way, for chi/tor 24mar game, tor last 3u, chi last 4u, so both team are bound to have an over soon. this game also have tor ats coz chi cover last 3.
for my system, i chase a team for 3 games.

Originally posted by bmur714

Just curious why this would be a strong over play? The last game they played on 3/21 the final score was 176 despite a 4th quarter run by CHI outscoring TOR 32-13. That game was a b2b for TOR with CHI coming off of 1 day's rest. This game tonight is another b2b for TOR coming off of a huge win against the Knicks and with CHI getting 2 days rest. The last game they played against TOR at home the final score was 141. With DeRozan tweaking his ankle last night (he's playing today) why would this game point to the over? I'm sure LTA's model will provide us with some quantitative data backing the under but for me looking at it from a situational point of view the under should be the right play.

**BigBurk** · 03-25-12, 04:09 AM

Line already op to 200.5, seems like you got it at the right time, dont see this one going back down.

**aussieH** · 03-25-12, 04:34 AM

I can get 199.5 in australia. Tempted to put a little more on.

**shimeon40** · 03-25-12, 08:13 AM

yeah you put more on aussie *...then you can win more...LTA's on fire !

**aussieH** · 03-25-12, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by shimeon40

yeah you put more on aussie *...then you can win more...LTA's on fire !

Shitonme40 you need to get a life.