LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

Total keeps going up...all the way up to 194 at some outs. Its not all public money pushing that total up....

[jacer333]

To what number are you confident in this game going over? With it moving upward, I am thinking of a play on the under given the layoff of the mavericks.

[hoyas2007]

I like the play. On it as well. Also planning to parlay OKC with the over for a small amount. Good luck LTA

[Love The Action]

To what number are you confident in this game going over? With it moving upward, I am thinking of a play on the under given the layoff of the mavericks.

I have it capped at 195...

[nmodi]

It jumed to 194.5 on bookmaker.com....Lets cash this over...

[Love The Action]

Good luck tonight guys. Mlb plays will be locked in over the next half hour.

[Love The Action]

Mlb

Cubs under 7.5 1x locked
Boston under 9 1x locked
Royals ml (-105) 1x locked

[Love The Action]

Mlb

Cubs under 7.5 1x locked

Royals ml (-105) 1x locked

I liked Baltimore ML and the under in that orioles/red sox game but it was canceled....

The plays above will be my only early mlb plays...bol...

[Love The Action]

Mlb

Cardinals ml (-150) .5x locked

[ColdBeerHere]

Thanks for your write up on the over....parlayed it w/ DAL - 4

[nmodi]

are u adding any last min unit to OKC/DAL game over bet?

[Love The Action]

are u adding any last min unit to OKC/DAL game over bet?

I would like to, but probably won't because of the high number...

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/17/11

Arizona ML (-140) 1.5x (Locked)

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/17/11

Arizona ML (-140) 1.5x (Locked)

Adding .5x for total of 2x on Arizona ML (-140) (Locked)

Arizona needs a win here. I really like Hudson as an young up and coming pitcher. Arizona has the home field today, last at bats and should pull out the win. They were embarrassed yesterday, with Galarraga getting shelled, and Arizona needs to win. I think we see a victory for the Diamond Backs tonights. Good luck.

[nmodi]

dont like dal 3 pt shooting for our over....come on DAL

[FishFace5]

Very good call so far sir.
both teams shooting very well and good pace as well.

[nmodi]

we shuld be cashing....good for over backers.....

[Love The Action]

Wow, the Cleveland Indians are just beasts. Looking at 2h options in the Dallas game now. I was half capping MLB and half watching the Dallas/OKC game. I think the score looks great for the over. From what I saw, the pace looked good.

[No coincidences]

Wow, the Cleveland Indians are just beasts. Looking at 2h options in the Dallas game now. I was half capping MLB and half watching the Dallas/OKC game. I think the score looks great for the over. From what I saw, the pace looked good.

There were 41 points in the first 11:12.

62 in the last 12:48.

Amazing.

[Love The Action]

Interesting...2h total is 97, which is basically asking if you would take the game under 200. I think I would. Gives us a 7 point middle opportunity.

[FishFace5]

Nobody played defense in the 2nd quarter so thats gonna have to change but I think this game stays close and free throws probably push the 2nd half over again.

[FishFace5]

The middle worked in the 1st game of the bulls series.
Was initially thinking the same thing for this game especially being that i'm fairly big on the over but I just dont want to put myself through rooting for these teams to play D or miss shots for that matter.

[Love The Action]

I generally don't hedge, so I probably won't. But this a very tempting scenario for me.

[vinh diesel]

I generally don't hedge, so I probably won't. But this a very tempting scenario for me.

I'm going to take 1x unit on under 97.5, good opportunity to middle.

[Love The Action]

If I had won in bases today, instead of not exactly looking that great at the moment, I would probably hedge 2 units on the 2h under. However, I don't want to lose any profit on this play if it goes over 2h.

[Love The Action]

Hahah, I just went to lock in a small .5x play on the 2h under and when right before I went to lock in password it said the wager was no longer available. That means it will hit for sure...

[Love The Action]

Alright, I'm all in on the over here. We need 91 points. Let's do this!

[FishFace5]

Hahah, I just went to lock in a small .5x play on the 2h under and when right before I went to lock in password it said the wager was no longer available. That means it will hit for sure...

HA. thats the worst. I didnt do it either so we'll both root against the middle.
points points points. we need 83 to cover and 90 to doge the middle

[No coincidences]

Free throws literally every time down the court.

This is sickening.

[No coincidences]

My under is being raped by these refs.

35 free throw attempts from Dirk, Durant and Westbrook in 31-plus minutes.

[Love The Action]

My under is being raped by these refs.

35 free throw attempts from Dirk, Durant and Westbrook in 31-plus minutes.

Didn't you check the ref assignments? I mentioned earlier that Zorba was officiating. I generally refuse to take any under that I see him and at least one other ref that favors the over if I think it would be a close call. It just seems like he calls the worst ticky tack fouls.

[FishFace5]

My under is being raped by these refs. 35 free throw attempts from Dirk, Durant and Westbrook in 31-plus minutes.

We're all on the over in here guy. Where the hell were you before game time. 1st game over trend baby

[No coincidences]

Didn't you check the ref assignments? I mentioned earlier that Zorba was officiating. I generally refuse to take any under that I see him and at least one other ref that favors the over if I think it would be a close call. It just seems like he calls the worst ticky tack fouls.

That's one thing, but come on. This is taking it to a new level.

[Love The Action]

That's one thing, but come on. This is taking it to a new level.

LOL, freeking Zorba. I feel for ya bud...

Make it back tomorrow with the Bulls/Heat under. Will you be on that as well?

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/17/11

OKC/Dallas Over (193) 2x (Locked)

Adding 2x for total of 4x on OKC/Dal Over (193) (Locked) WINNER

Another ugly public over play. Nevertheless, as long as it's an ugly public over play that cashes, I am happy. It's no secret I'm not a fan of jumping in bed with the public, especially when they are at 80% on the over and I didn't get the opening number of 192. However, I have this capped at 195 and I think we see this one squeak over. I think the "opening game" over trend is in full effect today and the over should cash.

One downside is that the Mavs have been off 8 days since their demolition of the Lakers. If you remember, the Lakers were swept because of Dallas' record shooting performance from behind the arc (attributable primarily to Stojakovic and Terry). However, we don't need a 122 points like that night, all we need is about 100. I think the Mavs can get there and so can OKC. I expect the Mavs to hit 100-103 on their home court and OKC to be in the mid 90's. This would get us to the 194 we need.

So far in these playoffs, these two teams have followed the opening game over trend and it's currently hitting at over 80% for the playoffs as a whole. Those are numbers I cannot ignore. However, it's numbers put up by the Mavs at home that really cinch this play for me. Bottom line is that the Mavs have averaged over 100 at home during the playoffs and I think that is what we see tonight despite their long layoff. Everyone cites the layoff as the reason why they will struggle. However, I don't buy into that. All of the Mavs players had a chance to rest up, get healthy and will be firing from the start. For a veteran team, that rest will only help. The Mavs will have fresh legs, which will lead to an uptempo and aggressive pace.

If you look at the regular season games between these two teams for reference (and I don't much stock into regular season games but they are a good starting point), you will see that each game they played hit over 193. Most of those games sailed over 193. I understand both teams will want to establish defense, however, as we have seen, these opening games have not been profitable for the under and I expect the pace to be quick tonight. The opening game is usually the highest scoring game of the series and I expect the same tonight. Defense will come later, tonight these teams will run.

We will see well over 160 fg attempts, with over 35 of those three point attempts. Both of these teams, and especially the Mavs, will be aggressive driving to the hole and hopefully we get some foul calls from the refs. If both teams can shoot around 45% with about 33% from three point range and 75% on 54 ft attempts, we should cash this over. Based on both season matchups and these teams' recent playoff performances, those numbers are more than attainable.

The trends are pretty split, with the over favoring Dallas and the under favoring OKC.

I generally think we will make some good money on the under in this series in a few select spots. However, we need to be flexible and make adjustments when the books adjust on us. In the first round, we saw a ton of unders. The books adjusted and shaved just a hair off the totals for round 2. What ensued was a bevy of public overs, especially in that Heat/Celts series. Remember, we need to be able to adjust and spot the value. In this case, the value is on the over because this line should be in the mid 190's and not the low 190's. I will bet with the value every time, because that will make you profitable over the long haul.

Finally, I think this is a case where you have sharp and square money on the same side. This line opened up at 192 and almost immediately shot up to 192.5 and then 193. Public money wasn't betting this game at the open...that was the so-called sharps.

I'm not afraid to take the value when it's presented to me and I will take it today for 4x. I am very confident inn this play. I added units now because I have a busy workday and won't have time to monitor lines. I do want to see the ref assignments, and that may result in one more unit.

I may be adding to my 5x under play on the Bulls as well pretty soon before that one drops. Good luck tonight. As always, please feel free to let me know why you like the under.

NBA 5/17/11
Ref update:

I am very pleased with the ref assignments for tonights game. Crawford, Kennedy and Zarba all favor the over. Zarba especially calls a lot of ticky tack stuff. I hate when I see his name in games where I play the under.

In addition, the line has gone up another half point to 193.5. Regardless of the public percentages, if there was big money on the under tonight, we would not have seen the line jump as much as it has.

Based on the ref assignments, line movement, the opening game over trend, the two teams' shooting ability, the expected fast pace and dallas' home game over trend, I am roiling with the over for 4x. Good luck!

NBA 5/17/11

1 - 0 = +4x

In this thread:

13 - 11 = + 15.8x

An EASY winner for once. Other than the last 4 minutes of the first quarter, this game was projected to go way over. Just as we predicted, there was a fast pace and solid shooting. Furthermore, and perhaps most importantly, the long layoff for the Mavs proved to get that veteran team healthy, rested and ready to roll just like we mentioned it would. The opening game over trend continues and so does our profitable run.

Our play on the under in the Heat/Bulls game will probably be a 10x play. I currently have 5x locked in and will probably lock 5 more in tonight so as to avoid any midnight shift to 181. The ref assignments will prove vitally important tomorrow, so we need to check on those as soon as they come out.

Congrats to over backers tonight! Let's get the under tomorrow!