NC playoffs '11

[7secondsOrLess]

I've said before, my unit sizes are small ($20 per).

I have a wife, kids and steady income. This is just fun recreational stuff for me; not worth it to go on a cold streak and lose hundreds or even thousands of dollars when I have to put food on the table.

i respect your honesty sorry for bashing you all the time

[MrXYZ]

Good luck NC, Lakers for me today as well. Kudos for your view on bet sizing, risking one's lifestyle on basketball games is insane. Gotta respect you for sorting out the priorities in in life.

[No coincidences]

i respect your honesty sorry for bashing you all the time

No problem.

[No coincidences]

Good luck NC, Lakers for me today as well. Kudos for your view on bet sizing, risking one's lifestyle on basketball games is insane.

I tried the heavier stuff before, and suffered enough bad beats and tough losses to realize it just wasn't worth it. Maybe if I was a better capper I'd go bigger, but I doubt it. Of course there are times I see a play and want to hammer it, but there are also times I feel that way and it doesn't hit -- that's when I'm thankful I'm not as impetuous with my money.

Still, I love capping games and reading lines (as you probably already know). That's more of a thrill to me than winning a big bet.

[7secondsOrLess]

I'm thinking about making a large play on Atlanta tonight. Check out the movement. Atl goes from +2 to +1.5 with 60% on the Magic. They need to win tonight cuz if it goes back to Orlando, they are in trouble. I think it ends here.

but thats only a half point move even though theres more action on orl not by much theres probably more ml on atl

[7secondsOrLess]

if neither jj or crawford gets hot theyll most likely lose atl needs great guard play to win

[JR007]

No Coin: you have probably read my other posts...on bet size....I have been doing this for a long, long time...i do not play more than 50 per game..unless i am up.....with the randomness and noise that goes on in any game..(.basically uncappable) there is absolutely no logic that one game is worth more than any other..in terms of dollars.....you are doing the right thing....have fun and keep your money in your pocket...blows to lose your paycheck.....best to the family

[No coincidences]

No Coin: you have probably read my other posts...on bet size....I have been doing this for a long, long time...i do not play more than 50 per game..unless i am up.....with the randomness and noise that goes on in any game..(.basically uncappable) there is absolutely no logic that one game is worth more than any other..in terms of dollars.....you are doing the right thing....have fun and keep your money in your pocket...blows to lose your paycheck.....best to the family

Thanks JR. I'm an impulsive capper with an itchy trigger finger. I don't have a lot of discipline when it comes to laying off games and narrowing down my plays, unfortunately. Big unit sizes just wouldn't work for me, given the real world circumstances.

[MrXYZ]

I tried the heavier stuff before, and suffered enough bad beats and tough losses to realize it just wasn't worth it. Maybe if I was a better capper I'd go bigger, but I doubt it. Of course there are times I see a play and want to hammer it, but there are also times I feel that way and it doesn't hit -- that's when I'm thankful I'm not as impetuous with my money.

Still, I love capping games and reading lines (as you probably already know). That's more of a thrill to me than winning a big bet.

Yeah man I really want to work towards what your saying & have more fun with capping games. The greed gets in the way & it's hard to accept the reality that doing this for a living is near impossible.

Good luck everyone, let's get some winners today.

[No coincidences]

I'm thinking about making a large play on Atlanta tonight. Check out the movement. Atl goes from +2 to +1.5 with 60% on the Magic. They need to win tonight cuz if it goes back to Orlando, they are in trouble. I think it ends here.

I don't like that The Greek won't move off that +2, JB.

[JR007]

just moved

[Camfriend87]

When I first started I was throwin money everywhere but that only lasted about 10 bets and then i had no money and started to read about money management haha now i'm up a few units even tho I only picked 49% on my own picks for NBA this year :S (It was my first time)

I really like your Under bet tonight tho

[No coincidences]

Yeah man I really want to work towards what your saying & have more fun with capping games. The greed gets in the way & it's hard to accept the reality that doing this for a living is near impossible.

Good luck everyone, let's get some winners today.

We're all greedy and impatient. It's no different for me. Think of it this way: if you only cleared a $20 profit on average every day, you'd be up like $7,000 a year. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't mind adding $7,000 to the mix as supplemental income.

Problem is, I just bet too much. I'll be up in the afternoon and instead of quitting when I'm ahead, I'll roll it over or put it in play at night. And the more plays you make, the closer to .500 -- or worse -- you get. Law of averages. Yet I just haven't found the patience or discipline to pass on, well, anything.

[No coincidences]

just moved

Saw that.

Glad I didn't play Magic.

[No coincidences]

When I first started I was throwin money everywhere but that only lasted about 10 bets and then i had no money and started to read about money management haha now i'm up a few units even tho I only picked 49% on my own picks for NBA this year :S (It was my first time)

I really like your Under bet tonight tho

[No coincidences]

LAL ML (-245) (3U) -- I know this will blow up in my face if it doesn't hit, but I'm about 99.9% sure it will

LAL/NO under 183 (2U)

2-0, +5U tonight

24-11, +19.5U playoffs

[JamesBrown]

Nice work!

[No coincidences]

Nice work!

Thanks JB.

[Ralphie1412]

Nice work

I currently am holding a mavericks moneyline ticket as my final bet of the night. Im trying with every inch of my being to not take portland -4 for the middle. Basically got Portland +5 then and the mavs +165. ****! Talk me out of it NC tell me to ride the mavs out.

[No coincidences]

Nice work

I currently am holding a mavericks moneyline ticket as my final bet of the night. Im trying with every inch of my being to not take portland -4 for the middle. Basically got Portland +5 then and the mavs +165. ****! Talk me out of it NC tell me to ride the mavs out.

If "that game" didn't happen a few days ago, I'd tell you to go for it.

I don't like betting against Portland at home in the 2H -- especially with their playoff lives on the line -- but I'd be more inclined to take the Mavs than the Blazers in this spot if that helps put your mind at ease about not trying to middle.

I think Dallas proves a point and closes this out with a 6-10 point win. Just worried a little bit that history repeats itself, but not much.

[hawley]

NoCoin I think Blazers knock a few points off this lead but I really cant see the Mavs blowing it again

DId you take Dallas like we talked about the other day

[Love The Action]

Great night tonight NoCoin. Keep up the great work.

I know you have to be excited as I am about this Celtics/Heat series coming up and the possibility for some huge profit on the game unders. I predict some great profit opportunities as the public will be pounding the over. We know better though.

Also, good luck on your huge 10U series bet on the Celtics. I really hope the Celts pull it out for you!

[Ralphie1412]

If "that game" didn't happen a few days ago, I'd tell you to go for it.

I don't like betting against Portland at home in the 2H -- especially with their playoff lives on the line -- but I'd be more inclined to take the Mavs than the Blazers in this spot if that helps put your mind at ease about not trying to middle.

I think Dallas proves a point and closes this out with a 6-10 point win. Just worried a little bit that history repeats itself, but not much.

agreed dallas is going to really try and close this out. The 2nd half line is great sign for dallas moneyline backers. Im not going to push my luck. I had a nice night as well.

79271756-1 4/28/11 6:20pm $230.00 $471.50 $701.50 Win 2 Team If Bet (win only)
Win 4/28/11 7:05pm MLB Baseball 912 New York Yankees -1½ +100* vs Chicago White Sox (E Jackson - R must Start C Sabathia - L must Start)
Win 4/28/11 7:35pm NBA Basketball 530 Atlanta Hawks +105* vs Orlando Magic

79258849-1 4/28/11 2:06pm $100.00 $129.00 $229.00 Win 4/28/11 2:05pm MLB Baseball 915 Toronto Blue Jays +129* vs Texas Rangers (B Morrow - R must Start A Ogando - R must Start)

[No coincidences]

DAL 2H +5 (SIA) (1U)

I have to do it. ML just took a 30 cent drop at Greek. I think this one's over.

[No coincidences]

agreed dallas is going to really try and close this out. The 2nd half line is great sign for dallas moneyline backers. Im not going to push my luck. I had a nice night as well.

79271756-1 4/28/11 6:20pm $230.00 $471.50 $701.50 Win 2 Team If Bet (win only)
Win 4/28/11 7:05pm MLB Baseball 912 New York Yankees -1½ +100* vs Chicago White Sox (E Jackson - R must Start C Sabathia - L must Start)
Win 4/28/11 7:35pm NBA Basketball 530 Atlanta Hawks +105* vs Orlando Magic

79258849-1 4/28/11 2:06pm $100.00 $129.00 $229.00 Win 4/28/11 2:05pm MLB Baseball 915 Toronto Blue Jays +129* vs Texas Rangers (B Morrow - R must Start A Ogando - R must Start)

Nice work. I laid off the NYY RL for some reason.

Getting slaughtered in baseball lately.

[Ralphie1412]

I put lakers -5.5 as the the 3rd part of my if bet and took it out. I like you just didnt feel good about laying that number. Any time I lay off the Lakers its a bloodbath, they hate me.

I tried getting in late live but had to accept the fact I missed the boat. Who you like tomorrow at first glance?

[No coincidences]

I put lakers -5.5 as the the 3rd part of my if bet and took it out. I like you just didnt feel good about laying that number. Any time I lay off the Lakers its a bloodbath, they hate me.

I tried getting in late live but had to accept the fact I missed the boat. Who you like tomorrow at first glance?

Memphis. ML only.

[No coincidences]

25-11, +20.5u

[MrXYZ]

Well done NC, congrats on a good night's work. Stayed out of Mavs after cashing Lakers, that game would've given me a heart attack lol.

[suicidekings]

No Coin: you have probably read my other posts...on bet size....I have been doing this for a long, long time...i do not play more than 50 per game..unless i am up.....with the randomness and noise that goes on in any game..(.basically uncappable) there is absolutely no logic that one game is worth more than any other..in terms of dollars.....you are doing the right thing....have fun and keep your money in your pocket...blows to lose your paycheck.....best to the family

I completely disagree with this statement. There are many reasons to value a play on one game more than another. You just need to have realistic expectations with respect to how many of the available games actually present value. If there are 10 games available and 3 with a positive expected value in the lines but you play 6 of them, then flat betting will probably slow the bleeding but not make the situation +EV. But if you're just playing the 2 games that you feel you have the greatest advantage on, then maybe upping the wager size makes sense. In the first situation you're laying 6 bets to win 1u each with combined expected win rate that might not even be breakeven. In the second, you're laying wagers on 2 games (to win 3u each) with a higher expected win rate. I'll leave the actual EV calculation out of this, but long term, graded staking the way to go.

[Love The Action]

I completely disagree with this statement. There are many reasons to value a play on one game more than another. You just need to have realistic expectations with respect to how many of the available games actually present value. If there are 10 games available and 3 with a positive expected value in the lines but you play 6 of them, then flat betting will probably slow the bleeding but not make the situation +EV. But if you're just playing the 2 games that you feel you have the greatest advantage on, then maybe upping the wager size makes sense. In the first situation you're laying 6 bets to win 1u each with combined expected win rate that might not even be breakeven. In the second, you're laying wagers on 2 games (to win 3u each) with a higher expected win rate. I'll leave the actual EV calculation out of this, but long term, graded staking the way to go.

Great post and I completely agree. It's all about making a wager with +EV and being able to spot +EV. If you are confident in your capping abilities and can spot winning angles or other reasons to make a wager that, according your capping techniques, call for a large stake because of the +EV, then you should wager a larger amount of your BR.

At the end of the day, grading your stakes according to the +EV of each wager, is really the only way to maximize your investment. However, you must have confidence in your capping abilities and techniques and trust in your ability to identify the larger +EV situations.

In my case, I enjoy action, there is no doubt about it. That is why the majority of my plays are in the .5x to 1x range. However, on the games I feel are extremely +EV, I will make big plays on a scale of 5-15 units. If I make a wager within that range, I am confident that I should win over 70% of the time (I'm actually hitting over 75% of my big wagers at this time) because those plays are (1) rare (perhaps once or at most twice a week) and (2) grade out to a large degree of +EV according to my capping techniques. However, especially in baseball, the majority of my plays are .5-1 unit because such extreme +EV wagers are so rare. Consequently, if I can hit that magic 70-75% of by big wagers and hover around the 50-53% range for my .5-1 units plays, I am always in the black. You must have the discipline to only make the "big bet" where you feel the +EV warrants such a play.

I think a lot of this also depends upon why you are investing in sports, your BR, your ability to replenish your BR and other monetary commitments (e.g. family, bills, life in general). I would never recommend that anyone make a bet that is larger than they or their family can afford to lose. If you are capping games just for fun, then flat betting is fine. But, if you are investing the time into your craft to become a successful sports investor in order maximize your investment, then you just need to become better at performing a risk-reward analysis to identify the larger +EV wagers that win on a consistent basis and assume a larger degree of risk on those specific games. I think it is very hard to maximize your BR wagering any other way.

This is really a very fascinating topic and I appreciate being able to enter into these conversations with talented investors such as SK and NoCoin and some of the others in this forum. The more everyone can learn from each other, the better we will all be at our sports investments. Thanks and good luck.

[No coincidences]

MEM ML -160 (2U)

Also like the over, but no play for me there.

BOL to everyone tonight.

[tullamore21]

MEM ML -160 (2U)

Also like the over, but no play for me there.

BOL to everyone tonight.

i decided to pick Memphis ML too. i think they will cover easy, but prefer to stay away from spread and raise my bet. I wanted to ask your opinion of Lakers-Dallas series. i think Lakers win in 6 games. Make a post when you find some time.
GL

[JR007]

to have a decent +ev....in my opinion..is hitting the +ev plays at 54%.-120....still 46% chance of losing.......is the MOS that you use different for the "graded" plays or the same for all plays ???....are you using the markets estimation of +ev or a model....???
if they are wrong...which the market often is.....then there is your randomness.....you cannot account for a injury of a key player during a game....or a referees bad call..... foul disparity) home team... calls that destroys a run....i have seen quite a few 15x...25x plays go down in this forum.....i should have stated..that i gained knowledge of pricing as well as this opinion from a very knowledgeable capper in another forum ...from a money management perspective.....I see flat betting as safer for 'small' bettors with limited resources
the other way can be .....suicide to a bankroll.......no such thing as a lock...agree to disagree ....i have seen differnet opinions on this...just my take......+ev is winning over the 'long term'......myself, trying to pick up a few hundred dollars a week.or lose(.short term)..and start again...but always stay in the game...which I have managed to do for many years now

[Love The Action]

MEM ML -160 (2U)

Also like the over, but no play for me there.

BOL to everyone tonight.

Big time late money on spurs...