NC playoffs '11

[No coincidences]

Trying to decide if it's worth going to the Denver well again Monday night. Those fvckers owe me, but I might just pass based on what I saw Saturday.

[Thunderman]

Don't let the Nuggs sink you again, this is a dysfunctional team right now. Homer talking here, but OKC is really gaining steam and getting great support from guys outside of Durant & Westbrook. BOL with whatever you decide.

[No coincidences]

Don't let the Nuggs sink you again, this is a dysfunctional team right now. Homer talking here, but OKC is really gaining steam and getting great support from guys outside of Durant & Westbrook. BOL with whatever you decide.

I really don't like what I saw from them Saturday, but honestly, I don't think OKC gets the sweep the way everyone and their grandmother expects. I just don't think I have the guts to put another bet on the Nuggets, though.

Trying to decide what to do with the Spurs as well. Line opened at Memphis +1, which of course attracted a ton of SA backers with their backs against the wall. I do think the Spurs win, but if the +1 doesn't budge, it might be the wrong side.

Going to be a very interesting night tomorrow.

[suicidekings]

Trying to decide if it's worth going to the Denver well again Monday night. Those fvckers owe me, but I might just pass based on what I saw Saturday.

I think in this case, Denver might win the game, but it's really a situation where you're trying to catch the falling knife. OKC has demonstrated that they are without a doubt the superior team and the books responded with a drop in the opener by 2 points between Games 3 & 4. It's no longer a sharp lean but rather an obvious statement. If they had stolen a game in OKC i would not be saying this but they've shown no ability to really pressure the Thunder. I would rather bet OKC as a +money dog and then chase them in Game 5, thereby betting on the team I actually believe in to win it.

One way or another, the books know they're getting annihilated on this series in the next game or two because there will be a LOT of money on OKC tomorrow and even more in Game 5, if necessary. They get bailed out a bit if Denver covers Game 4, but I doubt they have high hopes for that happening. All they can do is make the Denver line as attractive as possible and hope to balance the action as best they can, then again in Game 5.

[t-wizzle]

Thunder got their win in Denver, so they did what they needed to do. Denver will win Game 4 because it's an elimination game. I still really don't think OKC is that much better than them.

[No coincidences]

I think in this case, Denver might win the game, but it's really a situation where you're trying to catch the falling knife. OKC has demonstrated that they are without a doubt the superior team and the books responded with a drop in the opener by 2 points between Games 3 & 4. It's no longer a sharp lean but rather an obvious statement. If they had stolen a game in OKC i would not be saying this but they've shown no ability to really pressure the Thunder. I would rather bet OKC as a +money dog and then chase them in Game 5, thereby betting on the team I actually believe in to win it.

One way or another, the books know they're getting annihilated on this series in the next game or two because there will be a LOT of money on OKC tomorrow and even more in Game 5, if necessary. They get bailed out a bit if Denver covers Game 4, but I doubt they have high hopes for that happening. All they can do is make the Denver line as attractive as possible and hope to balance the action as best they can, then again in Game 5.

So why wouldn't they just make Denver a PK? Do they really deserve to be - anything at this point against a team that absolutely owns them? Giving the public OKC at + money is just begging for imbalanced trouble.

That's why I honestly think the books were counting on a Nuggets win in Game 3; The Greek, for instance, closed with a ML much higher than the rec. books and barely budged on it while others were dropping theirs due to all of the public money on Thunder.

What do you think about the SA/MEM game tonight, SK?

[Snowball]

NoCo consider OKC played like garbage last game and still won.
they were sloppy and careless, still won..

[sweetjones55]

Betting the Denver/OKC game is very dumb in my opinion. Nobody really knows what's going to happen. OKC is a much better all around team so they could easily win again as they have beaten Denver like 6 times straight in the last month now. But it's possible Denver doesn't want to get swept and plays with more effort than OKC.

Same thing goes for the SA/MEM game. Memphis is the better team, matches up much better, and is at home where they rarely lose. But SA is in a do or die situation and may play with more effort. Again very tough to predict.

Betting these two games is just a example of a person forcing a play in because it's the playoffs and there are short cards. They are just trying to mentally convince themselves it's the right play to have action. Or they are just chasing beacause they lost with SA/DEN in game 3.

[No coincidences]

Betting the Denver/OKC game is very dumb in my opinion. Nobody really knows what's going to happen. OKC is a much better all around team so they could easily win again as they have beaten Denver like 6 times straight in the last month now. But it's possible Denver doesn't want to get swept and plays with more effort than OKC.

Same thing goes for the SA/MEM game. Memphis is the better team, matches up much better, and is at home where they rarely lose. But SA is in a do or die situation and may play with more effort. Again very tough to predict.

Betting these two games is just a example of a person forcing a play in because it's the playoffs and there are short cards. They are just trying to mentally convince themselves it's the right play to have action. Or they are just chasing beacause they lost with SA/DEN in game 3.

I couldn't agree more, SJ, but for me and most gamblers, it's really difficult to stay on the sidelines. Instead of waiting patiently and putting more $$$ into bigger/safer bets, we'd rather roll the dice with these toss-up games.

There is no real angle in any of these games tonight.

[No coincidences]

NoCo consider OKC played like garbage last game and still won.
they were sloppy and careless, still won..

I know, Snow. I think Denver and San Antonio are the way to go, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if OKC/MEM both win, so I should probably just hold off.

[1017BrickSquad]

couldnt of said it any better SJ...right on point it is all about timing!!! no need to force there are plentyyy of games coming up

[t-wizzle]

I think the game to stay away from is Memphis/SA ... The Grizzlies have the Spurs number and way too many people are making plays on the Spurs based on their past history and success during the regular season. Obviously the series is far from over but at this point I think it's time to accept that the Grizzlies may just be the better team.

[suicidekings]

So why wouldn't they just make Denver a PK? Do they really deserve to be - anything at this point against a team that absolutely owns them? Giving the public OKC at + money is just begging for imbalanced trouble.

That's why I honestly think the books were counting on a Nuggets win in Game 3; The Greek, for instance, closed with a ML much higher than the rec. books and barely budged on it while others were dropping theirs due to all of the public money on Thunder.

What do you think about the SA/MEM game tonight, SK?

They're still bound by the past lines they've put up. Dropping a line from -5 in Game 3 to a pk in Game 4 would be an overreaction. I suspect that to them, -3.5 is where they think the line is to optimize their own EV.

And I think Spurs win, but it's least favourite of the three games being played tonight. I think a +6 on either side is likely a winner, so we'll see what happens in live betting.

[No coincidences]

SA ML -125 (1U)
SA/MEM over 188 (1U)
OKC/DEN over 205 (1U)

Should just stay on the sidelines tonight -- not real crazy about any of these.

[t-wizzle]

I really like Dallas and Denver tonight. Not sure about the totals tonight but late money has been a pretty good indicator for those.

[No coincidences]

I really like Dallas and Denver tonight. Not sure about the totals tonight but late money has been a pretty good indicator for those.

Hard to say how they'll react to those losses, t-wizz. I don't know. In theory, I do too.

[MrXYZ]

I'm leaning Spurs as well. I agree NC, it's hard to stay away from these 2 games, even though it's really just tossing coins for -110.

[JR007]

74% on the Spurs according to sports spy......should be more movement

[suicidekings]

SA ML -125 (1U)
SA/MEM over 188 (1U)
OKC/DEN over 205 (1U)

Should just stay on the sidelines tonight -- not real crazy about any of these.

Pretty sure the Spurs is the right side tonight. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

[Love The Action]

Good luck tonight NC.

[No coincidences]

SA ML -125 (1U)
SA/MEM over 188 (1U)
OKC/DEN over 205 (1U)

Should just stay on the sidelines tonight -- not real crazy about any of these.

1-1-1. Weird day. Didn't deserve the win or the push, frankly.

16-9-2, +9.4U playoffs

[No coincidences]

CHI -8.5 (2U)
ORL -7 (1U)
ORL/ATL under 178.5 (1U)
NO/LAL under 183 (1U)
CHI -0.5/LAL -2/ORL +1 8-point tease (1U)

[No coincidences]

ORL -7 (1U)
ORL/ATL under 178.5 (1U)

Cash these two.

Valiant effort to get the over.



18-9-2, +11.4U

[t-wizzle]

Good calls, hopefully bulls can hang on here for the cover. I took them small.

[No coincidences]

Good calls, hopefully bulls can hang on here for the cover. I took them small.

They'll be fine.

[StanleySharp]

Nice play(s) on the ORL/ATL game

[No coincidences]

Nice play(s) on the ORL/ATL game

Thanks.

[No coincidences]

CHI -8.5 (2U)
ORL -7 (1U)
ORL/ATL under 178.5 (1U)
NO/LAL under 183 (1U)
CHI -0.5/LAL -2/ORL +1 8-point tease (1U)

3-1 with LAL -2 pending on the tease. The NO/LAL under is a loss.

19-10-2, +12.4U playoffs

[No coincidences]

Shouldn't do this, but....

LAL/NO under 92 (2H) (1U)

[phillybadboy]

nice day for you

[SilverTongueFox]

Coin - final minutes of each qtr both teams stop defending. It's killin' our unders.

[No coincidences]

Coin - final minutes of each qtr both teams stop defending. It's killin' our unders.

That drives me nuts. Seems to always be the case at Staples, too -- like 8 points in the final minute of every quarter.

[No coincidences]

nice day for you

Thanks philly.

Gave it all back -- and then some -- in bases. Again.

[No coincidences]

8 FT attempts in the last 50 seconds.

Come on.

[No coincidences]

Make that 10 in the last 1:02.