Originally posted by No coincidences
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damn i took this for 15k crap, oh well dont worry about it figured u were on your stuff today is all :/Comment -
Really, an embarrassing loss for the Bulls if you think about it.Originally posted by lmaoceltics
No reason for them to lose this game.Comment -
we still got hope d-rose can get some and 1's hopefully 1 min 30 secs is nothing when down 10Comment -
Nah, it's over.Originally posted by lmaoceltics
Bulls will win this series, but they're done after that. This game was very telling.Comment -
damn just lost 15k so sick , i wonder if lakerboy will post any 30x's i need to chase badlyComment -
4-3 today, but -2U
40-24, +27.2U playoffsComment -
My 10U bet on Boston for the series is basically up for grabs on Monday.
I could hedge a little by taking the Heat ML (say for 5U). If Miami goes up 3-1, the series is virtually over.
I'll have to sleep on it.Comment -
Coins, celts win tomorrowComment -
I'm about 60/40 on Boston right now. Not as confident as I was in Game 3, but still think you're right.Originally posted by paco
With the series bet, though, I doubt I make a play in this spot on Boston.Comment -
I'm thinking the exact same thing, I also have 10U on Boston for the series.Originally posted by No coincidences
Boston are a monster at home in the playoffs and I think they take it out tomorrow even with Rondo injured (I'm assuming West should be OK), so I think I'm going to let it ride, and look to hedge in game 5.
If it does go into Miami 2-2 then I am thinking of placing 10U on the Miami ML in game 5 as a hedge. It will probably be only to win 5 UNITS (expecting odds of around -200), but it gives the following scenarios:
1) Miami win Game 5, Miami win series. Net outcome: -5 UNITS
2) Miami win Game 5, Boston win series. Net outcome: 25 UNITS
3) Boston win Game 5, Boston win series. Net outcome: +5 UNITS
4) Boston win Game 5, Miami win series. Net outcome: -20 UNITS
Obviously the last outcome would be disastrous, but in my opinion the Heat are late game chokers through and through. If they get a blowout, as in games 1 and 2 they are fine, but once the going gets tough at the end they make poor decisions, turn the poor over and shoot badly. This has been demonstrated time and time again during the regular season - they don't perform under pressure. I would expect any game 6 or 7 to be tightly fought so the chance of Miami winning two of these in must-win situations I would put at very, very low odds.
If I assign my own personal probabilities on the scenarios above it would be something like:
1) 60%
2) 10%
3) 25%
4) 5%
My expected outcome then would be: (0.6 x -5) + (0.1 x 25) + (0.25 x 5) + (0.05 x -20) = -3 + 2.5 + 1.25 -1 = -0.25
And I've come close to a solid hedge.Comment -
bolComment -
FK LC I had the Bulls for 65K and YOU made me lose!Comment -
Just shittin (Duh)... after donkalicious comment about 15k up top...Comment -
BOS/MIA under 181 (3U)Comment -
Painful loss.
Combine that with the Heat win that virtually finishes my series bet and Pierce's missed jumper basically swallowed up 13 of my units.Comment -
Never underestimate the knowledge of the books. Heat lose every game in Boston, and suddenly they're -1.5?Comment -
I'm not saying you didnt because I haven't been around but I hope you posted this somewhere before the game started?Originally posted by lunchbawksComment -
To pretend this was anything other than a toss-up game is foolish.Originally posted by lunchbawks
I'd say the same thing if Boston had won. There was no "inside info" on this one. Would you be saying the same thing had Pierce hit that last shot?Comment -
I have 2u on Heat ML it's in my threadOriginally posted by hawley
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Nice call.Originally posted by lunchbawksComment -
As bitter a pill as this game was, to be honest this provides the best actual chance to hedge here for the 10U series bet. The line on Miami at home will be lower than it would be otherwise (I expect -4.5 and -200 ML type odds), so I'm planning on just putting all 10U on the Miami ML to salvage something from this series.Comment -
Seriously...wtf was the deal with that jumper. Why did he wait till no time left. If anything, you drive with five seconds left so you can foul if you miss and get another possession. It's basketball 101 but these morons just don't seem to get it. That was one of the worst possessions to possibly win a game that I have seen since Florida lost to Butler. At least that was college kids...Pierce is supposed to be a pro's pro and one of the best. I will forever hold a grudge against him for that shot lol...Originally posted by No coincidencesComment -
With 18 seconds left, that was just a horrible possession. I don't know what was going on there.Originally posted by Love The ActionComment -
2H under 98.5 OKC/MEM (2U)
I'm cold today. Play accordingly if you're going to fade/tail.Comment -
Is this seriously going to happen to me twice in one night?
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Wow.Comment -
Sick. Sorry man.Comment -
You can thank fkn OKC for that...bunch of idiots. Why the hell wouldnt they foul when theyre up 3?
Dumbest play in history.Comment -
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0-2, -5U today
40-26, +22.2U playoffs
Not much else to say on those two losses. I guess the bottom line is they both lost.Comment -
You were obviously on the right side both times. Don't get too discouraged...you've had a very nice playoff run so far. This kinda stuff just happens every once in awhile...I guess that's why they say it's better to take the under usually. OT can really screw you.
Pretty sick for it to happen twice in 2/2 of your picks though.Comment -
The public has been killing it on their over bets. However, as I said in previous threads, this is an aberration from previous NBA history and I don't expect the overs to keep hitting at such a remarkable rate. OT's, consistent 50% shooting nights, 60 free throws called in one game -- all of these things are not the norm and will not continue. I expect some great opportunities to cash big money on the unders moving forward in these playoffs, starting tonight. I really like the Bulls under based on the Bulls ability to make defensive adjustments after losing. Good luck tonight.Comment -
got whooped on the Under the last 4 games, was thinking Under tonite but ran i pulled up this....
SU: 5-3 (5.9)
ATS: 5-3-0 (-2.7) avg line: -8.6
O/U: 7-1-0 (17.0) avg total: 195.1
Q1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team: 25.9 24.1 27.2 27.6 109.0
Opp: 21.5 25.9 23.9 26.8 103.1
Field Goals Threes Free Throws BlocksO Rbnds Rbnds Foul Assists TrnOvrs
Team:38.5-81.4 (47.6%)7.1-18.5 (39.2%)24.9-34.0 (74.7%)5.812.1 44.124.221.913.5
Opp: 38.2-84.9 (45.1%)8.4-22.0 (37.6%)18.2-22.5 (82.5%)3.811.2 40.429.820.613.2 DateTeamOppSiteFinalRestFG%LineTotalSUmA TSmOUmDPSDPA SUrATSrOUr ot
20030424 LAL MIN H 110-114 1&1 39-47 -10 +201 -4 -14.0 23.0 4.5 18.5 L L O1
20030504 DAL POR H 107-95 1&1 45-42 -6' +197' 12 5.5 4.5 5.0 -0.5 W W O
20030510 SAC DAL H 137-141 1&1 48-48 -4' +217 -4 -8.5 61.0 26.2 34.8 L L O 2
20040525 LAL MIN H 100-89 1&1 51-44 -8' +180' 11 2.5 8.5 5.5 3.0 W W O
20050517 SAS SEA H 103-90 1&1 46-45 -11 +186 13 2.0 7.0 4.5 2.5 W W O
20060502 SAS SAC H 109-98 1&1 57-44 -8' +187' 11 2.5 19.5 11.0 8.5 W W O
20090512 LAL HOU H 118-78 1&1 51-32 -12 +198 40 28.0 -2.0 13.0 -15.0 W W U
20100511 CLE BOS H 88-120 1&1 41-55 -7' +193' -32 -39.5 14.5 -12.5 27.0 L L O
20110510 CHI ATL H 1&1 -9
playoff situation: home fav coming off a a double digit loss on the road (as a fav) and series is now tied... now i'm second guessing myself.
-vaiComment -
teams are so set in stone on taking the "last shot"....whether it be end of qtr, game etc.....im no basketball coach, but i would try and get a good shot and not worry so much about the last possible. i get that boston didnt want to give the ball back to mia, but start a play with 10 seconds. drive to the hoop - force the refs to get involved with their whistle.Originally posted by Love The ActionComment -
Agree 110% Dex. Pierce didn't even make an attempt to move toward the basket until there was about 5 seconds left. I just don't get this at all. Run a play. This is the biggest difference between college and NBA, where it's all just iso. Tom Izzo had to be shaking his head last night.Originally posted by DexterComment
