God start of the day....
7th 5* win with ATL un
probly 8th to when cav cover
also MIA un was in
7th 5* win with ATL un
probly 8th to when cav cover
also MIA un was in
-
Comment -
yup there was 8th in
Nice to see that even some 3* are in .....but still good fading material
regards
mikkeComment -
and there was number 9 in...will portland be my first 5* loss or will i go perfect 10-0
Comment -
A good day...doesnt matter about the finnish of POR game...but it should be nice if POR turn it around
Fast recap of today...before I sum up the results:
5* 3-0 ....one game left - looking bad ..but 9-0 so far and with that probly loss so is 9-1 verry good result
3* 9-2 ....also 1 game left..loking advantage for me..only need 38 points in last q to make it
1* 2-2-1..fading tailing..doesnt matter today...no bet had been best
½* 4-2...ouch %¤#¤#...ml was bad for all fav today.....but really liked my GS ml bet
Hope there was not so many faders today
regards
mikke
Now I'm going to watch POR turn it arouns
Comment -
WOWOWOWOW
POR turn it over and a perfect 10-0 for my 5* picks...what a rush...not bad for a newbe on cappingComment -
Grade - - Today - - Total - - Tot$ - - Tot$ w/wagering
5*mmmmm4-0fffffff010-0 fffff+1025 fffffff+5125
3*ffffffffff10-2 fffffff16-10 ffff+500fffffffff+1500
1* fffffffff2-2-1ffffff6-11-1 fff-610fffffffff -610
½* fffffffff5-2 fffffffff9-7 fffff-658 fffffffff-329
Proppffffff 0-0 fffffffff0-1 fffff-100ffffffffff -25
Tot:ffffff21-6-1 fff41-29-1 fff+157fffffffff+5661
pls tell me if you see something wrong in the sum up
I'm only human so I do some misstakesComment -
hmm...what to do?
fading 1* and ½* - thats the easy
follow 5* -it's a must...but when will the bads start?
but what to do with the 3*?..follow or no bet?
If follow the 3* and 5*..will u risk big part of your bankroll days like this..20+36 units=56 units...over half of your BR if 1% - unit
Any sugestions?
mikkeComment -
What a day it was
6 picks..the 5* and the 3* and GS ml ...2385 units to the bank
Comment -
Will start now working with thr games today...
Dont know if I want to find any 5* games..that will destroy my perfect 10-0 record
mikkeComment -
Today list..
5* CHI/SAS un190 L(-110)
5* DAL -1.5 (+100)
3* PHO/DAL un207 L(-110)
½* CHI ml (-135) W(+100)
½* DAL ml (-128) W(100)
My personal play in bold.
Fade or follow on your own risk.
BOL
mikkeComment -
I dont like when found the 5*....really dont want to break my 10-0 record...
But it will happends, soner or later (hopefully no worse then 1-1 today)
I really like the DAL -1.5 pick
But when I say so...probly it will be the loss
mikkeComment -
good job masticore!Comment -
keep it up, good luck in your picks tonight.Comment -
Keep goingComment -
Thx.....
Reallt need some luck to get 12-0 on my 5* game's
The game I'm "sure" will make it, is DAL -1.5
But the under 190 game.....dont know what to say- need some luck.
One thing thats good with that pick is: the lined moving down..last I checked its un189 now (still fits my system if you follow/fading)....but if it falls more...dont play
My system is strickly mathematic (back test all picks since 1996)....so I will recomand people that follow/fading...check up other factors (injuries etc etc)
Often have "the lines" that already in the lines <--- bad english, hopefully you understand what i mean
BOL
mikkeComment -
Hoprfully will it go tonight also (I'm confident with 2 of 3)
The DAL pick have my highest back testing result so far ( over 80%)....and havent I been 10-0 (the first loss will come soon) so had I say thats the "game of centery". But now we are waiting for the first loss.....so I have it as a regular 5* game
BOL
mikkeComment -
Just stick to the system and hope for the best, I've been lurking your post just going to follow the 5 star plays, rest seem inconsistent, well GL to us all
Comment -
Good luck to our both...remeber if you follow (or fading) its your own risk.
Hopefully the "good" rush follow me today also But statistic..."We have a proble Houston" 10-0 is way over the normal...but you never know
Yes, lower stars game have some problem's...
But its a reason they also have lower stars
I only play the "bold" games...I liked my GS ml pick yesterday
BOL
mikkeComment -
A waring to al followers/faders....
I dont know anything about basketball...(I know the basic rules)
But I'm good to find out conclusion by statistic...
And have a little question (I have seen some of the games I played on)...
How many fouls will it be before the the team always get penelty shoot? Is it called "team fouls"?
regards
mikkeComment -
Was this thought present when you deemed the previous 5*'s?
You don't change your gardening methods when everything's growing just fine in order to make sure that everything keeps growing nicely. You just keep doing what your doing, let it grow, and tend to the weeds. This thought is a weed that MUST be eradicated. So yank it out, till, and BREATHE... You've got some nice petunias growing! Don't "over-garden" them with harsh fertilizers and such.
This is a great run you're on, but you've got to stop focusing on that. If your good streaks are getting in your head like this (to the point where you're considering your streak/overall record/etc. while grading your plays), your bad streaks will make you spiral out of control and COMPLETELY knock you off the track. Don't overthink it. Also, this is waaay to small a sample to determine if you should fade/tail certain grades and such, and especially with such small variance (not that i particularly agree with that theory, in any case, but that's another discussion).
Every day is a new day, and should be respected as such. So... When the sun goes down, go to sleep. When the sun rises, go to work. If what you've been doing in your garden is still working just fine and everything's growing nicely, don't start to THINK... just DO. Just as you've done in the previous days in your garden.
And BREATHE. It's good for you! What a waste of hard work and fragrant beauty if you don't!
Hope this was helpful. GL tonight. Oh, and one more thing... watch you don't blow all your profits on ncaa games and hockey games and stuff over the all-star break. I know you'll be itchin' to keep those profits rollin' in, but it would be a good exercise in discipline to do NOTHING with your bankroll until after the break. And maybe even a few nights past, until the dust settles. Sometimes taking a break from gardening, even during spring, can be very beneficial!
Comment -
Respond to MrShrink
(must say first my english is bad
but hopefully will you understand me)
I know: I am on good rush...and I know it will end sometimes. But hopefully its not only luck and the system is long time winning also
I'm litle ironic when I say: dont want to find the 5* game that end the 10-0 streak. But who will destroy a perfect 10-0 streak. But in the end will I grade my plays...what they show up in the sytem.(sometimes no 5* and somtimes many)
And I'm using back testing for that:
5* 70%-
3* 60-70%
1* 53-60% (will only play them if there are strong or they show some profit)
½* ml plays with value (same as above)
Proppbets(or 1/4*): its more kind of my own bet and funny bets (to still my "itchi fingers")
And that will hopefully result with the same result in the "real world"
I know a bad/good streak can do dangerous thing with your head - in poker its called steam or tillt -and then you start chasing, overplay your cards etc etc. But I'm doing fine there..grinding grinding...and good/bad runs comes and goes. And its same principe in sportsbetting
But just now I'm walking around on the skies..that I found a way (hopefully proffitble) to make my own instead of follow/fade others
So if I start chasing or something like that...then call me a "nuckelhead" and leave the thread fast
No, I will not blew up the "money" in all-star break because: I have not same "databas" to work with...
This only contains: NFL,NBA and MLB.
But if I find a similar bas for NHL and nccab..will I start there too (anyone knows of any?)
BOL
mikkeComment -
Thanks for the winning picks yesterday Mikke! Have to agree with MrShrink, keep doing what you'r doing. We all know the first 5* loss will come some time, it's inevitably! (come to think about it, there may be some people on this forum that doesn't, lol). So stop worrying about it
Every normal person who have been gambling some time know there will be some downs, but you can now go on a loosing strike of four 5* games and still be up
(on the 5* games that is)
As for your betting strategy, i think you should try what you said, 5*=3% and 3*=1%. If you adjust your % according to your bankroll (especially if your bankroll goes downhill), I think its a conservative strategy. Agree?
I see the problem with nights with alot of 5* and 3*, but every game are independent of each other, so it should be the same as if you play the same amount of games over several days (please correct me if I'm wrong).
Have you tried to seperate the intervalls of the 5* games (>70%)? Maybe you could rise the limit for 5* games?
Tailing your Dallas and Chicago picks tonight! BOL to all
Comment -
I can seperate them ex.
5* 73+
4*66-73
3*62-68
2*58-63
1*53-58
But I'm little tolazy and want it simple..so I do 1 3 5 seperation....
But I can next time write down my % on the picks
mikkeComment -
I alway adjust my unit size...day to day
I tracking in size of 100 becuse...make it simple for me and others
GL with the picks...remember the the line I worked with was 190..and now 188..still like it but would adjust it down to a 3* game
BOL
mikkeComment -
It was just a thought, if you don't want so many games (units) at stake. The system seems to work perfectly for the 5* games so no need to change anything
Do you mind me asking where your from?Comment -
Ok, I live in Trondheim! Maybe you recognized the cap on my avatar?
Comment -
the line is down to 186.5 on my book...then will i say -no play
I have it at 190
bol
mikkeComment -
looking bad in chi/sas un190 game
both team start with fgp ov60...and wil it not be some change in that will the total be around 210Comment -
The predicted boring game...with few poins became a shootout for both team....
So this will be the first loss (if not a mirakle happends)
But thats good .....now can I start winning again...I start with Dal-1.5
mikkeComment -
2/17
Grade - - Today - - Total - - Tot$ - - Tot$ w/wagering
5*mmmmm1-1fffffff011-1 fffff+1015 fffffff+5075
3*ffffffffffj0-1 fffffff16-11 ffff+390fffffffff+1170
1* ffffffffff0-0fffffff6-11-1 fff-610fffffffff -610
½* fffffffff2-0 fffffff11-7 fffff-458 fffffffff-229
Proppffffff 0-0 fffffffff0-1 fffff-100ffffffffff -25
Tot:ffffffff3-2 fffff44-31-1 fff+237fffffffff+5381
Today res: 3-2
Tot:+80
w/wagering: -280
pls tell me if you see something wrong in the sum up
I'm only human so I do some misstakesComment -
Was sure of that...at least >80%
Not so bad day...it will come worse day....
We bounce back after all star weekend
Maybe if i get some itchy fingers under the weekend will it maybe be some propps....no system play
But hopefully I can gol out on a party instead
Happy weekend all
mikkeComment
