tired of losing money -make my own picks instaed

[masticore]

5* (SU 22-9) Bos ml (+125)
3* (o/u 7-13) LAC/TOR un208,5 (-110)

add 2 picks

3* (ATS 16-9) CLE -2 (-110)
3* (o/u 8-15) CLE/WAS un207.5 (-110)

[masticore]

5* (SU 22-9) Bos ml (+125)
3* (o/u 7-13) LAC/TOR un 208,5 (-110)
3* (ATS 16-9) CLE -2 (-110)
3* (o/u 8-15) CLE/WAS un 207.5 (-110)

and a last game added:

5*(ATS 19-8) SAC +9.5 (-110)

and there are we finnished for today

Hopefully can I make two good days in row

BOL
mikke

[masticore]

nice to hit the first 5* pick today

[masticore]

Look back and see my 3* picks is also bad 1-2 today

Will only play my 5* picks in the future (as long they win)

Will sum up after SAC/PHO game

mikke

[masticore]

5* (SU 22-9) Bos ml (+125) W
3* (o/u 7-13) LAC/TOR un 208,5 (-110) W
3* (ATS 16-9) CLE -2 (-110) L
3* (o/u 8-15) CLE/WAS un 207.5 (-110) L

and a last game added:

5*(ATS 19-8) SAC +9.5 (-110) W

and there are we finnished for today

Hopefully can I make two good days in row

BOL
mikke

today 3-2....both 5* game win (+765)

Total
8-8 (+1365)

Not bad for a newbe

[masticore]

Will in the future only play 5* games

But I will still pick out 1* and 3* game....but only for tracking (to see how bad they are)

[masticore]

Total so far:

5* 4-0 (+425)
3* 3-4 (-140)
1* 1-4 (-340)

For tracking: (I risk 100 when +odds and to win 100 when -odds)

So fade lower stars is good

BOL
mikke

[masticore]

2/14

5* SAS-8
½* SAS ml (-370)

<edit> new analys <edit>

[masticore]

½* DET ml (+160)
1* DET/ATL ov/185.5
1* DET +4.5

NO PLAY - only for tracking

[masticore]

3* LAC/MIL un/189
½* MIL ml (-230)

1* POR/MIN un 202.5
5* POR -2.5
½* POR ml -145)

1* DEN +2.5
1* DEN/HOU ov222.5
½* DEN ml (+127)

3* CHA +4
½* LAL ml (-200)


NO PLAY

[blinky88]

Nice Boston pick

[masticore]

Nice Boston pick

Thx, I have been lucky with my 5* games.
When I backtest that game it came up that: If they won the spread they always also won ml

[masticore]

a intressant proppbet is LAL winmargin un 10½ (+135)

[masticore]

sum todays picks (2-14)

5* SAS-8 W (+100)
5* POR -2.5 W(+100)

3* CHA +4 W (+100)
3* LAC/MIL un/189 W(+100)

1* DEN +2.5 L(-110)
1* DEN/HOU ov222.5 W(+100)
1* DET +4.5 L(-110)
1* DET/ATL ov/185.5 L(-110)
1* POR/MIN un 202.5 W(+100)

½* DET ml (+160) L(-100)
½* SAS ml (-370) W (+100)
½* MIL ml (-230) W(+100)
½* POR ml -145) W(+100)
½* DEN ml (+127) L(-100)
½* LAL ml (-200) L (-200)

prop:LAL winmargin un 10½ (+135) L (-100)

only play 5* games - rest is for tracking

BOL
mikke

[bondi_slacker]

gl with the spurs, i got them too

[masticore]

gl with the spurs, i got them too

thx

And there was my 5th 5* game in
And if POR cover the -2.5 then it 6th i row (looking good so far)

Thats a good start for one who just starting pick by him self.

Hopefully its not only beginner luck

mikke

[masticore]

Nice ,,dubbel on my 5*
Dubbel on my 3* - I'm not playing them...but I'm proud to hit them
1* is bad as usual

Maybe start working better with the picks beside the 5* pick's

But 6-0 for the 5* - I can only say that I'm verry glad that I do my own picks nowday's, even if I losing money in the end

I will sum-up after the last game

BOL
mikke

[masticore]

Grade - - Today - - Total - - Tot$ - - Tot$ w/wagering
5*mmmmm2-0 fffffffff6-0 fffff+625 fffffff+3125
3*ffffffffff 2-0 fffffffff5-4 fffff+60 fffffffff+180
1* ffffffffff2-3fffffffff 3-7 ffff-470fffffffff -470
½* fffffffff3-3 fffffffff3-3 ffff-100 ffffffffff-50
Proppffffff 0-1 fffffffff0-1 ffff-100ffffffffff -25
Tot:ffffffff 9-7 fffffff17-14 ffff+15 ffffffff+2760

6-0 at 5* game's Hopefully not only beginner luck

But I only play 5* play nowday's but maybe start playing 3*/1* when I see that I can pick them too

I will start do better home work on 3* and 1*pcks...so hopefully will it give results there too

BOL
mikke

[masticore]

Let see what this day can give us:

Final list today
3* IND/MIA un 205.5 L (-110)
3* IND +5.5 L(-110)
3* MEM/PHI ov191 W(+100)
3* CHI/CHA un183.5 L(-110)
3* PHO/UTA ov207.5 L(-110)

1* MEM -3 W(+100)
1* OKL/SAC un208.5 L(-110)
1* NO +2 L(-110)

½* IND ml (+185) L(-100)
½* MEM ml (-161) W(+100)
½* NO ml (+110) L(-100)

[Troillunge]

Thanks for the picks yesterday mikke! Followed both your 5* plays and faded your 1* (no offense intended, as you stated yourself you didnt play them). Will wait and see how your new strategy on the 1* and 3* plays work out before I tail them (no fading either, promise), but will absolutely follow your next 5*! BOL and keep up the good work

[masticore]

Thats the picks for today....
Will work little more with them and see if any changes.(try to find any 5* game)
The final list should be done 06.30 otherwise is this the final

BOL
mikke

[masticore]

Thanks for the picks yesterday mikke! Followed both your 5* plays and faded your 1* (no offense intended, as you stated yourself you didnt play them). Will wait and see how your new strategy on the 1* and 3* plays work out before I tail them (no fading either, promise), but will absolutely follow your next 5*! BOL and keep up the good work

Yee...good ide to fade my 1* picks...maybe should do it by myself.

Probly also fade my next 5*---I can impossible as newbe capper hit 7 in row

BOL

[masticore]

If anyone woder how I grade the picks:
In backtesting......
53-60% 1*
60-70% 3*
70%+ 5*
ml alwys ½* because lttle to win/big risk (if not verry verry good pick..as bos for few days ago)
propp..1/4* only bet for fun

regards
mikke

[masticore]

Didnt find any 5* today...so no best bet today

Final list in post #54

Have work with all picks - same work I have done with my 5*'s...

I will still not recomend to play them..maybe CHI/CHA un

But I feel confident to play the list...probly most because I'm a action junkie(=looser)
If you are a action junkielike me...remember there are only low *'s game

I wish faders good luck..probly best besides have no bet at all

*It was some line changes and I only change the lines so its the same that I have with my bookie...no picks change

BOL
mikke

[Troillunge]

Didnt find any 5* today...so no best bet today

Final list in post #54

Have work with all picks - same work I have done with my 5*'s...

I will still not recomend to play them..maybe CHI/CHA un

But I feel confident to play the list...probly most because I'm a action junkie(=looser)
If you are a action junkielike me...remember there are only low *'s game

I wish faders good luck..probly best besides have no bet at all

*It was some line changes and I only change the lines so its the same that I have with my bookie...no picks change

BOL
mikke

I only faded your 1* because of the hitting rate (very small sample tough. You have no reason to be so hard on yourself, so cheer up Overall your up in units, and thats what counts in the end. Will try Chicago under with you. And dont push the 5*, if they arent on the board just wait until they show up. Once again good luck tonight!

[masticore]

I only faded your 1* because of the hitting rate (very small sample tough. You have no reason to be so hard on yourself, so cheer up Overall your up in units, and thats what counts in the end. Will try Chicago under with you. And dont push the 5*, if they arent on the board just wait until they show up. Once again good luck tonight!

Agree that many capper's always forcing to make a "best bet"...but not me..

But it had been fun if it was one

mikke

[masticore]

and gl with chi/cha game...

Why I'm hard to myself?
It is becayse many here doesnt know about bad runs - gambling is gambling....
And if I miss 13 plays in row....If I have repeted myself 100 times that I'm newbe as capper and people follow me (dont recomend that yet) Will the thread be full of BS as soon the bad run come (pretty sure it will be one sometimes...hopefully it will be + totaly even with some bad runs)
And the only thing I want ...is to try get some winners with my own work (learning - but have been lucky with my 5* so far)
But its totally ok for me that people fade/follow me...but they must remember I dont force them to play.
It's good that someone have made some lucky bet with me
BOL
mikke

[masticore]

It looks like a ttttterible day....

Nothing is on my side today...
pacers 1st kill pacers +5-5 and the under bet
little to many points in 1st q (3th was not good either) in chi/cha to make under
phi only 10 points 1st q in a over game....!!!!!

the first q kill me today

Hopefully will the board show up some 5* game tomorrow and i will skip 1-3-½ games (never,never again)

or starting fade myself

Hopefully lot of player fade me today

Now to bed...post up res. tomorrow

BOL
mikke

[masticore]

I will still not recomend to play them..maybe CHI/CHA un

My recomandation of that pick was because a read some discusion in a other thread..and that was under..so i strengh my thought about that...next time when have only 3* and lower....see below

I wish faders good luck..probly best besides have no bet at all

But we will bounce back as soon the 5th are on the board...maybe......

regards
mikke

[masticore]

Grade - - Today - - Total - - Tot$ - - Tot$ w/wagering
5*mmmmm0-0 fffffffff6-0 fffff+625 fffffff+3125
3*ffffffffff 1-4 fffffffff6-8 fffff-280 fffffffff-840
1* ffffffffff1-2fffffffff 4-9 fffff-590fffffffff -590
½* fffffffff1-2 fffffffff4-5 fffff-210 fffffffff-105
Proppffffff 0-0 fffffffff0-1 fffff-100ffffffffff -25
Tot:ffffffff 3-8 fffffff20-23 fff-555fffffffff+1570


If anyone see something wrong in this calculation..pls post and I will correct it

[masticore]

2/16
Can I bounce back today? Lets try (probly fade all my picks)

Today...final list

5* ATL un205.5 W(+100) <---play it at own risk...guess going 7-0 on my 5* is almost impossible
5* CLE +11 W(+100) <------- same as over
5* PHI ov205 W(+100) <-----same as over
5* POR-5.5 W(+100) <-----same as above

3* GS +5 W(+100)
3* CLE ov201.5 (+100)
3* ORL -11 W(+100)
3* ORL ov 198.5 L(-110)
3* MIA un203 W(+100) <--- almost 5*
3* DET +1 W(+100)
3* DET ov199 W(+100)
3* BOS un185.5 W(+100)
3* LAC +.5 W(+100)
3* DAL un203.5 L(-110)
3* DEN +1.5 W(+100)
3* POR ov183 W(+100)

1* MIA -9 L(-110)
1* ATL +2.5 L(-110)
1* DAL -11 W(+100)
1* DEN un200.5 W(+100)
1* GS un207 -P-

½* ORL ml -833 W(+100) (will never never play odds like that-but it fitts system so I track it)
½* MIA ml -500 W(+100) (same as over)
½* BOS ml -1000 W(+100) (same as over)
½* LAL ml -833 L(-833) (same as above)
½* HOU ml -185 L(-185)
½* GS ml +170 W(+170) (like the value here)
½* POR ml -212 W(+100)

My personal play in bold

[Troillunge]

Still up in total Will try heat under and atl under today BOL and thanks for work!

[masticore]

Finaly finnished with analys of todays game

Many 5* game today...hope for 3-1 there and I'm satified
and a good 3* play (MIA un)
and also will bet un GS ml (really like the valu in that game)

Remember you fade/follow on your own risk - I will only play the 6 game
the 5* games
mia un
GS ml

BOL
mikke

[masticore]

Still up in total Will try heat under and atl under today BOL and thanks for work!

GL...let see if it was good work today

Why MIA un was almost 5* game....?

Was when back testing with diffrent parameters...a lot of them was 5* but the (hopfully the best) was only 3*

And I must say my english is terrible so I dont do writeups in public.

[masticore]

Match report at the moment....

Cavs bet is good so far...2x12 left..so go cavs
MIA un..terrible first q..but the 2nd save me...and the 3th was not to bad either....60/40 now to win or not
ATL un look good to half
PHi ov - just started
POR and GS - not started