Very good analysis and picks. Thank you
NBA picks
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arnauSBR High Roller
- 12-07-10
- 132
#1016Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1017Thanks ArnauComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1018Good night last night as my picks went 3-1. Will hopefully build on it with some more winners tonight.Comment -
portnoy65SBR Sharp
- 08-18-10
- 435
#1019Good job AdamLike usually
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Bob734Restricted User
- 12-27-10
- 647
#1020for the last night Adam keep it !!
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adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1021Thanks again for the support guys, much appreciated
Just looking into tonight's games.. Will post my selections within the next hour or so
Best of luck all!Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1022Florida State Seminoles @ Miami [Fla] Hurricanes -1.5 (NCAAB) 1.5 Units
Good spot to fade Florida State here. A week ago tonight, the Seminoles upset then undefeated and number one Duke and followed that up with a blowout win against an overmatched NC State team.
Now they hit the road for the first time since, where they are 4-2 on the season including losses in their last two. One of those losses came in the ACC at Virginia Tech and now they head to Miami to face the Hurricanes who will be out for revenge after last season’s home finale defeat by a point.
Miami is just 1-2 in the ACC with losses coming at Duke and at Clemson and the lone win coming last time out over Boston College by a point. The Hurricanes are a perfect 9-0 at home and over the last four seasons the Hurricanes have compiled a 46-10 record at home.
The Hurricanes are ranked 32nd in the latest NCAA Men's Basketball RPI rankings released on Jan. 17, the third-highest ranked squad in the ACC, behind Duke at 10th and North Carolina at 25th. Florida St. is known for its tough defense but the Hurricanes are deep and they have the athletes that can negate that edge.
Miami is the only team to have two scorers among the ACC's top 10 and three scorers among the ACC's top 20 in Malcolm Grant (15.0 ppg, 8th), Durand Scott (14.2 ppg, 9th) and Reggie Johnson (12.1 ppg, 20th). Miami also has a big advantage at the free throw line both overall and in home/road splits and with a line this small, that can make or break the cover.
As mentioned, this is a revenge game for Miami and it is actually a triple-revenge situation and the line is right knowing it is 6-0 ATS in its last six games with a line set between +3 and -3.
Florida St. meanwhile is 4-13 ATS against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 and it is also 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after playing a game as a home favorite.
Look for the Hurricanes to tally up another win on their home court and cover the small number tonight.
Best of luck all!Comment -
Soon2BRichSBR MVP
- 11-18-10
- 1318
#1023cheers 4 the pick mate. glComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1024(Tennis: Australian Open, Women's Round 2 Match)
Jelena Jankovic to win (-143) Vs Shuai Peng (2.5 Units)
Admittedly there is a clear contrast in form between these two players with Shuai Peng making a promising start to her 2011 season and Jelena Jankovic looking to get back on track after a disapointing end to her 2010 season.
Peng kicked off her 2011 season in Auckland (New Zealand) at the 'ASB Classic' event. She was unseeded for the tournament and caused a big upset in the 2nd round by eliminating the #3 seed Svetlana Kuznetsova. Peng progressed through to the semi-finals where she played some of her best tennis but lost narrlowly to defending champion and #2 seed Yanina Wickmayer.
Peng also entered the 'Moorilla Hobart International' event where she again eliminated the #3 seed Tsvetana Pironkova, this time in the opening round. Peng also went on to defeat the #7 seed Sara Errani in straight sets to reach her second consecutive semi-final of 2011.
Jankovic, on the other hand, is attempting to break out of a slump and there is no better time to turn things around than in the opening grand slam event of 2011. Jelena struggled to find form and encountered a series of poor performances and early eliminations from tournaments at the tail-end of the 2010 season which would certainly have dented her confidence.
However, if there is such thing as a good time to experience a decline in performance it would be approaching the off-season. This will have allowed time for Jelena to fully recover physically and mentally. It will also have provided an opportunity for Jelena and her coach to analyse the poor performances and identify areas of her game where improvements can be made to get her back playing the world class tennis she is capable of.
I believe there is value with Jankovic tonight as bookmakers will have been heavily influenced by the form of both players over the last few tournaments when setting the lines for this game, reducing the value on Peng and increasing the value with Jelena. In terms of decimal odds, I was expecting Jankovic to be priced at roughly 1.57 and Peng 2.25. However 'Betfair.com' have Jankovic priced at 1.70 and Peng 2.40
Here are some reasons why I believe Jankovic will win tonight..
Jankovic is currently 8th and Shuai Peng 54th in the World Rankings. They have played on 7 previous occassions and Jelena has dominated the matchup winning 6 of those encounters and 5 of them in straight sets.
Although Peng has been playing some good tennis lately, she has a poor career record in Grand Slam events only making it past the the 2nd round of the 'Australian Open' on one occasion over the last 6 years.
In fact, looking at Peng's overall Grand Slam record, in 21 appearances, she has only managed to supass the 2nd round on 4 ocassions (19% of the time) which indicates that she generally fails to perform to the best of her ability in major events.
Jankovic has made at least the 3rd round in her previous four appearances at the Australian Open and has supassed the 2nd round in 20 out of 29 career Grand Slam events (69% of the time).
Look for Jankovic to get back on track with some strong performances which she always manages to produce in big events, starting with a win over Peng tonight.
Best of luck all!Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1025Texas A&M +7 @ Texas (NCAAB) 1.5 Units
Looking forward to this game as two of the 'top 10' teams (although not in the same poll) will battle it out in Austin, Texas tonight.
Texas will look to make the most of it's home court advantage tonight, aiming to extend their current win-streak to 3 games.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M narrowly avoided defeat in their last outing as Missouri forced OT but failed to come out on top as the Aggies picked up a 91-89 victory, extending their current streak to an impressive 13 wins and a 16-1 SU record (their best start to a season in 91 years).
Texas A&M are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games Vs 'Big 12' opponents and are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings with Texas. This game will be a hard faught battle on the glass, where the Aggies, who are second in the country in rebound margin, may just prove to be the difference tonight.
Look for Texas A&M to keep this one close and within the +7 handicap tonight.
Best of luck all!Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1026Toronto Raptors @ San Antonio Spurs (4th Quarter total UNDER 50.5) 1.5 UnitsComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1027Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Hornets -3.5 (1.5 Units)
The New Orleans Hornets are showing good value as a mere 3.5-point home favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies. New Orleans started the season very hot, in fact owning the league's best record through nearly the first month. They cooled off for a while, but are now back in business.
The Hornets have won 5 straight and are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They have wins over many of the top teams in the league during this stretch, including Boston, Denver and Orlando. Memphis is a team on the rise but they are certainly getting too much respect with this line tonight.
The Hornets are 16-5 at home this season, limiting opponents to a mere 90.4 points/game while Memphis is 7-15 on the road, giving up 100.0 points/game. New Orleans is 15-4 in their last 19 home meetings with the Grizzlies.
The Hornets are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Better yet, New Orleans is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.
Best of luck all!Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1028Washington Wizards +7 @ Milwaukee Bucks (2 Units)Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1029Here is my final card for tonight's games:
NCAAB) Florida State @ Miami Florida -1.5 (1.5 Units)
Tennis) Jelena Jankovic to win Vs Shuai Peng (2.5 Units)
(NCAAB) Texas A&M +7 @ Texas (1.5 Units)
Toronto Raptors @ San Antonio Spurs (4th Quarter total UNDER 50.5) 1.5 Units
Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Hornets -3.5 (1.5 Units)
Washington Wizards +7 @ Milwaukee Bucks (2 Units)
best of luck all! Lets build on last night's results and make it another profitable night tonightComment -
Doon88SBR Hustler
- 05-24-10
- 52
#1030thanks and good luckComment -
leafsfan19SBR Wise Guy
- 09-10-10
- 620
#1031real tough night adam, GL tomorrowComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1032WOW.. awful night last night, by far my worst of the season as all selections go down.Apologies to those that followed, was confident with my selections but that's the way it goes sometimes
Just got to put last night behind me and get back to it tonight. Will hopefully bounce back sooner rather than later.
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adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1033I will make adjustments to my overall record and post it up as soon as possible..Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1034still need to calculate units which i'll do later but my overall record is now 166-114-8 (59.29%)Comment -
portnoy65SBR Sharp
- 08-18-10
- 435
#1035Don't worry Adam!! I broken too...let's better time!!!!!Comment -
TheDoodSBR Sharp
- 10-21-10
- 328
#1036Adam, I don't know 1 capper that is doing well right now... You are doing great... Keep it up manComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1037Cheers Dood, Yeah we all go through these patches, will hopefully get back on track starting tonight and get my overall percentage back above 60%.Comment -
arnauSBR High Roller
- 12-07-10
- 132
#1038Bad day, only bad day, it's normal. Don't worryComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1039Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Bobcats -5
1.5 unitsComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1040I apologise for posting so late. Only just got back home. I have two more plays for tonight which I will post in a couple of mins. Best of luck all!Comment -
LBDT168SBR Sharp
- 10-05-10
- 251
#1041let's get this! i'm on the Cats too! GLComment -
AzNDooMSBR MVP
- 01-29-08
- 1611
#1042Apologise, im assuming your taking Charlotte to cover by -5 on 1.5x.
Sorry, just wasnt clear as I just like tracking players bets for personal follow.
Btw, very nice write ups especially the one about Tennis.
Although I been following Na Li and Shuai Peng's play it made clear theoretical sense on your bet, but the chinese are in form this year so would keep an eye on them making quarter finals. Would advise you not to bet against them.
Just a thought bud. Keep up the good work.Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1043Apologise, im assuming your taking Charlotte to cover by -5 on 1.5x.
Sorry, just wasnt clear as I just like tracking players bets for personal follow.
Btw, very nice write ups especially the one about Tennis.
Although I been following Na Li and Shuai Peng's play it made clear theoretical sense on your bet, but the chinese are in form this year so would keep an eye on them making quarter finals. Would advise you not to bet against them.
Just a thought bud. Keep up the good work.
The majority of the time I post analysis with my selections except for when I'm in a bit of a rush like tonight.
Yeah, I spent a lot of time analysing the peng/jankovic matchup and believe there was some value with jelena and she was up 5-2 in the 1st set before losing 5 consecutive games. But credit to peng she played well, I agree with your statement completely, just felt on that particular occasion there was some value with jankovic but it didn't work out :-/ can't win them all unfortunately, will hopefully get back to winning ways tonight. Good luck with your playsComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1044North Texas -6.5 @ Louisiana Monroe (NCAAB) 1.5 unitsComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1045Arizona @ Washington -9 (NCAAB) 1.5 unitsComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1046Last play for tonight:
California +7 @ UCLA (NCAAB) 1 unit
Best of luck all!Comment -
greenyRestricted User
- 10-21-10
- 386
#1047thanks adam .. gLComment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1048Good night overall last night as my picks go 3-1. A bucket from the 76ers with 0.8 seconds left on the clock prevented our selection from a push wish was a tough break as Philly wasn't going to win the game at that stage. The Cats had opportunities at the end to build on their lead and get the cover but didn't take them.Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1049I have 3 picks for tonight which I will post up in a couple of mins. Best of luck all!Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#1050LA Lakers -1 @ DEN Nuggets (1.5 units)Comment
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