John Morrison 2010 NBA

[jmjj]

new filter dont bet on worst rebonding team when playing best rebounding team. take it to the bank

I think people need to re-read my post of #2241 thats the next play in the system find the wizard of oz and hes total smack he sends this way

[Wilba]

Hi Wilba,
I now understand where you're coming from and your math is correct in the formula you cited. You wrote at post #2006:and then went to prove how how betting from the B bet woud be more profitable. I suggest, based on your hypothesis, that betting on the C Bet alone produces even more profit, because the C bet is more reliable than the A and B bets.

Using 18.61 Units as the total risk at the C bet, if the bettor has not bet on the A or B, he could place a single bet (at 1.59/-170) of 18.61 units (your figure) and could win 10.98 units 118 times out of 151 (78.17%). Gross income is 1295.63 units, from which he would deduct 33 lost bets totalling 614.13, and walk away with 681.50 units after 151 bets, which is even more profitable than starting at the B Bet. Reason: C bets are the most successful.

But are they?

The principle of your argument is that the individual successes of the B and C Bets are more profitable than the cumulative effect of the complete series. It appears to be the case. However, the stats do not provide equal samples from which an accurate comparison can be made:

total JM series: 1163.
total B bets: 448
total C bets: 151

So far, the B bet sample is only 38% of the series sample and the C bet sample is even less at 13% of the series sample. Are the results from the 2 smaller samples representative of what they will be after 1163 events? Who knows?

But, at this moment, it appears that the best strategy is to wait for the occasional C bet and hit it hard by betting 18 units, while the ABC player will be placing only 12 units on that same game. 1 in 5 bets will fail, but a greater profit will be made.

Kev

Well I know that the A bets are not profitable. That is the basis of my modification. Of the A bets there have been 1130, and even if you bet every single one of them at the (unlikely) odds of -170 (most people get much worse for w/ 3 points), you would be down money. That part of it has nothing to do with whether the B/C are successful. And I would say over 1000 sample size is enough for a pretty fair indication that A's are definitely not profitable unless you get considerably better than -170 odds for buy 3 points, which noone does..

[Wilba]

HI KEV THE BRIT -

you posted about the JJ system a while back and I asked, is being a >9 point underdog enough to qualify for a system play, or does the team also have to be at least +600 on the ML as well to qualify? Because there are some cases when a team is +10 or more but still not +600 on ML

thanks in advance

[Wilba]

I believe JM said some where that you dont have to bet the ML, but if you choose to bet the spread and it loses, but ML wins then the series is over. Even with this info Wilba you still continue to bet B and C?

ya but to a lesser extent. I would just half the risk

[J.M. Disciple]

ya but to a lesser extent. I would just half the risk

so instead of betting like 6.5% on B you would do like 3%?

[J.M. Disciple]

HI KEV THE BRIT -

you posted about the JJ system a while back and I asked, is being a >9 point underdog enough to qualify for a system play, or does the team also have to be at least +600 on the ML as well to qualify? Because there are some cases when a team is +10 or more but still not +600 on ML

thanks in advance

Warriors were +9 today, did this count as part of the system? I thought it had to be +10 or more. This would make warriors a C bet today then correct? Also the ML for Warriors was only +350 there for they wouldn't qualify if they dont meet neither criteria.

Also if the spread opens at +8 but moves to +10 does that count as a series or is it based on the opening spread?

[Wilba]

You guys never learn, do you? I said that you SHOULDN'T play any team on a 3-game away series if they have another away series for AT LEAST 3 games WITHIN ONE MONTH. Just because this scam artist sends you a pick or even a "lock pick" does NOT guarantee that it will win. If a team loses a 3-game away series and has another away series for at least 3 games, then you should play that next series (the away series for at least 3 games).

The Detroit Pistons have another 3-game away series after this losing series within a month (12/31/2010-1/4/2011). Do you get the picture now? Okay, now we have a Cleveland Cavaliers series to bet on after their previous losing series and I can tell you that this series will win because of that.

well stanley when you 1st raised this point I took it seriously, and chased it up. You told me you backtested nearly 10 years in nhl/nba and "you didnt know if it had any losses at all". So i took what you were saying in good faith until I got around to backtesting it myself, but within 1 week an NHL series, which fit your system criteria, lost the series. So obviously that meant I could not be sure about your theory until I backtested it myslef, as until I got around to backtesting it myself, the only evidence I had was that it did not work. I am still trying to find the time to backtest it in the NBA to see how it turned out, but obviously this season 3 loss would have been filtered out which would have been great. It does cut out a large % of all the seriess though if you do it this way.

So with your filter the Lakers are a C bet lock on Dec 12 @ NJ nets yes?

[Andy3568]

After this, I think I will follow Wilba's advice on betting only the B & C games. My bankroll is so low, I won't be able to chase three games.

[ToTheHole]

Looking like 3 C's in a row with Orlando... Unbelievable. Seems lika an age since the last A win... apart from Denver tonight that equates to 7 Straight total losses. Wow...

[luzviminda]

How can you win with this system when Detroit is not playing to win.
They are throwing away all their games, why because they want the
next 1st Draft pick.

[Wilba]

so instead of betting like 6.5% on B you would do like 3%?

that would depend which V it is. Nowhere near that much if V3. Im starting to wonder now if the V1-V3 performance difference has something to do with the multiple road trips in one month theory proposed by stanley. It would make sense because teams often have 2 3 game trips inside their own conf. quite close to each other, but that would not happen with cross conference very often at all.

PS Stanley dont come in here and shit on people for not listening to you - you came in and posted a theory with no backtesting or evidence preovided, so I mean you really cant expect people to drop everything and do what you say without providing some evidence. Like I said earlier I was very keen to find out more about your theory, but you could not provide any backtesting evidence. And if there is no backtesting evidence, there is really not much to go on. Thats why up until i am able to test the record for myself, (or be provided it by someone), especially since it already lost this season in NHL, I will keep using what has worked for me for the last 3 years. Still well up using this method even after the awful start to the season

[Stanley77]

well stanley when you 1st raised this point I took it seriously, and chased it up. You told me you backtested nearly 10 years in nhl/nba and "you didnt know if it had any losses at all". So i took what you were saying in good faith until I got around to backtesting it myself, but within 1 week an NHL series, which fit your system criteria, lost the series. So obviously that meant I could not be sure about your theory until I backtested it myslef, as until I got around to backtesting it myself, the only evidence I had was that it did not work. I am still trying to find the time to backtest it in the NBA to see how it turned out, but obviously this season 3 loss would have been filtered out which would have been great. It does cut out a large % of all the seriess though if you do it this way.

So with your filter the Lakers are a C bet lock on Dec 12 @ NJ nets yes?

After 2 NHL series losses on the Dallas Stars and the St. Louis Blues, I realized that it's best to bet on NHL teams that have a road series of AT LEAST 4 GAMES if they DON'T have another road series of at least 3 games WITHIN A MONTH after that. If they have a road series of exactly 3 games and lose that series then it would be a good idea to bet on them on their next series.

As for the NBA, it's best to bet on teams of AT LEAST 4 GAMES no matter what. But if they have a road series of EXACTLY 3 GAMES and they DON'T have another road series of AT LEAST 3 GAMES within a month after that, then it's a bet.

The Lakers are a 3rd of 4th series on this bet.

[Wilba]

Looking like 3 C's in a row with Orlando... Unbelievable. Seems lika an age since the last A win... apart from Denver tonight that equates to 7 Straight total losses. Wow...

ya what an awful start to the season. But every season has 3-4 losses, hopefully we are just getting them out of the way early. And note that denver tonight under the 'official' rules was not even a play! ouch.. I would hate to see what a labby line would like like right now if you had been using labby and buying the points with it

[J.M. Disciple]

Looking like 3 C's in a row with Orlando... Unbelievable. Seems lika an age since the last A win... apart from Denver tonight that equates to 7 Straight total losses. Wow...

Wow have you been following the system at all? Lets look at all the A bets that won this month.

12/01/10 ORlando A
12/4 Cleveland lost C
12/5 GSW A
12/5 MEM A
12/5 Wash B
12/6 OKC A
12/6 Miami A
12/7 Denver series canceled after A bet loss
12/7 Detroit Lost C
12/8 MIami A
12/8 Lakers A
12/9 Boston A
12/10 Portland A

ITs ok though A wager hasn't won in forever even though it has won 9 out of 13 series so far on A level this month.

[J.M. Disciple]

ya what an awful start to the season. But every season has 3-4 losses, hopefully we are just getting them out of the way early. And note that denver tonight under the 'official' rules was not even a play! ouch.. I would hate to see what a labby line would like like right now if you had been using labby and buying the points with it

Im also curious to see what a labby line looks like right now. I honestly dont think it would be that bad since they are using A wagers as well.

[Wilba]

After 2 NHL series losses on the Dallas Stars and the St. Louis Blues, I realized that it's best to bet on NHL teams that have a road series of AT LEAST 4 GAMES if they DON'T have another road series of at least 3 games WITHIN A MONTH after that. If they have a road series of exactly 3 games and lose that series then it would be a good idea to bet on them on their next series.

As for the NBA, it's best to bet on teams of AT LEAST 4 GAMES no matter what. But if they have a road series of EXACTLY 3 GAMES and they DON'T have another road series of AT LEAST 3 GAMES within a month after that, then it's a bet.

The Lakers are a 3rd of 4th series on this bet.

so you say to play a 4 game chase on the lakers current road trip? ie go to a 4th game if the lakers do not cover vs NJ in 2 days?

you do realise that a 4 game chase at odds of -188 (what i get at pinnacle) you risk 68 units to win 1? so you must win 68/69 series just to break even??

[jmjj]

Warriors were +9 today, did this count as part of the system? I thought it had to be +10 or more. This would make warriors a C bet today then correct? Also the ML for Warriors was only +350 there for they wouldn't qualify if they dont meet neither criteria.

Also if the spread opens at +8 but moves to +10 does that count as a series or is it based on the opening spread?

no JM u need both u need the +9 and the +500 and higher for it to be a true play

[Wilba]

Wow have you been following the system at all? Lets look at all the A bets that won this month.

12/01/10 ORlando A
12/4 Cleveland lost C
12/5 GSW A
12/5 MEM A
12/5 Wash B
12/6 OKC A
12/6 Miami A
12/7 Denver series canceled after A bet loss
12/7 Detroit Lost C
12/8 MIami A
12/8 Lakers A
12/9 Boston A
12/10 Portland A

ITs ok though A wager hasn't won in forever even though it has won 9 out of 13 series so far on A level this month.

if you play -500 odds then it wins 9/13. if you play without extra loss cover up filter A wins 7/13. ps quite a few people only play V1, and do not play V3. I think the post you were talking about was just talking about V1 bets, and in that case he was exactly right in what he was saying..

[Wilba]

also props to whoever said the minny line should be -10. you were spot on. I hope that you did not bet detroit today..

[dlunc3]

just to make jm look a little better tonight..... C bet coming up for tb in nhl...

[JW Cash]

ya what an awful start to the season. But every season has 3-4 losses, hopefully we are just getting them out of the way early. And note that denver tonight under the 'official' rules was not even a play! ouch.. I would hate to see what a labby line would like like right now if you had been using labby and buying the points with it

A labby line would look great....when you have consecutive losses...

and the line looks like

25-25-25-25
25-25-25-25


---------------

Keep the 2 lines or add a third and just add another variable or two so lines look like

13-13-13-13-13
13-13-13-13-13
13-13-13-13-13

---------------

Sure takes the stress out of a martingale C Bet....

Just need a couple straight wins to clear a lot of the loss...

" Dont Sweat The Labby "

[mattd83]

Perhaps I just picked the wrong week to start following the JM plays? I have a small bankroll and I'm down $200 for the week.

Is this just a bad streak? Im starting to think that I should just bet the other side of every JM play.

[Andy3568]

just to make jm look a little better tonight..... C bet coming up for tb in nhl...

Yeah, against Vancouver. Pretty close on points, but Vancouver's at home. Problem is they should've had an easy win against Edmonton. It shouldn't have gone to a shootout, and Tampa Bay shouldn't have lost.

[Mashaka]

Wow have you been following the system at all? Lets look at all the A bets that won this month.

12/01/10 ORlando A
12/4 Cleveland lost C
12/5 GSW A
12/5 MEM A
12/5 Wash B
12/6 OKC A
12/6 Miami A
12/7 Denver series canceled after A bet loss
12/7 Detroit Lost C
[COLOR="rgb(65, 105, 225)"]12/8 MIami A[/COLOR]
12/8 Lakers A
12/9 Boston A
12/10 Portland A

ITs ok though A wager hasn't won in forever even though it has won 9 out of 13 series so far on A level this month.

are you joking... lakers were fav by 8, ml was -400... great system if you have to bet on ml of -400 to count them as winners. Same with boston. Another thing, OKC did not cover their a bet on the 6, not to mention you are counting miami as 2 wins.

[Stanley77]

so you say to play a 4 game chase on the lakers current road trip? ie go to a 4th game if the lakers do not cover vs NJ in 2 days?

you do realise that a 4 game chase at odds of -188 (what i get at pinnacle) you risk 68 units to win 1? so you must win 68/69 series just to break even??

Yes, the Lakers are a 4-game chase in this series. If they do not cover against the Nets, then they will cover on their next game against the Wizards. The same goes with the Magic.

I always play the last bet on a series so I would have to wait for a loss on the A and B bets on a team. If it's a 3-game chase, I always wait on the C bet. If it's a 4-game chase, I always wait on the D bet.

[Stanley77]

If the Tampa Bay Lightning do not cover this series, then they will cover their next series which happens in less than a month away.

[Wilba]

Perhaps I just picked the wrong week to start following the JM plays? I have a small bankroll and I'm down $200 for the week.

Is this just a bad streak? Im starting to think that I should just bet the other side of every JM play.

YES a very bad streak. the worst I have ever seen in fact.

And JW i know you do a variation labby with no points, thats different, i was talking about strict labby when you buy the points, coz with 7 striaght losses and big juice a strict labby would look a little nasty i think! im sure the way you do it it is ok though

[Wilba]

good call on whoever said miami were a lock today (i think it was JM disciple)

Lebron is a freak of nature!

[J.M. Disciple]

good call on whoever said miami were a lock today (i think it was JM disciple)

Lebron is a freak of nature!

Yes with Curry out one of their top 3 players. Also wright was listed as questionable. So dividing your bankroll by 3 amount the bets today didn't seem like a good idea, but you did have some stats behind it. My won bets have been doing very well. It sucks that i research them, but chicken out when it comes to placing good money on them. betting like less than 1/2 a unit on most of them cause i dont trust my own bets lol.

I need your help with a spread sheet. I sent you a message with the systems and % of bankroll ill be using for each. Help is appreciated. I would also like to add sports betting professor to my spread sheet.

[Wilba]

Yes with Curry out one of their top 3 players. Also wright was listed as questionable. So dividing your bankroll by 3 amount the bets today didn't seem like a good idea, but you did have some stats behind it. My won bets have been doing very well. It sucks that i research them, but chicken out when it comes to placing good money on them. betting like less than 1/2 a unit on most of them cause i dont trust my own bets lol.

I need your help with a spread sheet. I sent you a message with the systems and % of bankroll ill be using for each. Help is appreciated. I would also like to add sports betting professor to my spread sheet.

Yes of course, putting your entire roll on anhything is never gonna be a good idea, but (i would still strongly disagree with you) If I was forced to put my whole bankroll on something, and had a choice between either a split on 2 JM C bets and 1 JM B bet, or the whole lot on a heavy NBA fav, no matter how good it looked, personally I would take the 3 way split anyday. To me all that matters is long term profitability, not a one off result. If you did it 1000 times over I am extremely confident which one would come out on top (although that is a stupid example coz if you put your whole bankroll on a single bet 1000 times over clearly you would go bankrupt sooner rather than later!)

nice call with miami though they completely dominated warriors. looks like they finally getting their shite together. was only a matter of time i guess!

[Wilba]

and yes it appears that you do quite well, you should back yourself. I made the mistake of not trusting my own picks a few years ago until I tracked them, and have played them ever since! I am only really good at soccer capping tho, wouldnt know about NBA capping. soccer is my bread and butter and compared to the NBA/NFL (where the linemakers odds are so tight and very rarely slip up) soccer is a dream to cap if you know a bit about it

[JW Cash]

YES a very bad streak. the worst I have ever seen in fact.

And JW i know you do a variation labby with no points, thats different, i was talking about strict labby when you buy the points, coz with 7 striaght losses and big juice a strict labby would look a little nasty i think! im sure the way you do it it is ok though

I actually dont know of anyone who does a strict labby.......

The 3 line example I had in my post shows that when you have a win...
you have 1 unit profit with some of the past losses.....how much loss
you want to recover is up to the individual....

Kinda like if you were doing straight 3 game martingale chase
and have 1 series loss......I always would divide that loss into
the next 5 or 6 upcoming series....you could split the loss into
the next 10 series if you desire....

If another series loss occurred within the next 6 series.....just repeat
the process....unless you have a totally worthless system...you
will in due time .......recover all your losses....with your current
unit profit.....

[JW Cash]

good call on whoever said miami were a lock today (i think it was JM disciple)

Lebron is a freak of nature!

I think Lebron just wanted to get this " return to Cleveland "
thing out of the way......


....now that its over, its NBA Finals or Bust for the Heat....

[ghislaine]

yup, at this moment unimpressed with the system...
and JM way of conducting business. However the sports picks buffet did great last night and betting those without points saved my bankroll.
will still give this a chance, maybe we can turn it around....

that said am looking into Sports betting professor as well, cant hurt right ?? I understand that his plays are in the service plays and he actually also offers a trial month ??

best of luck to us in the next games and lets see what JM comes up with in his email tonight....

oh and JW, nothing but words of wisdom from You, if not for labby, would be out of the game now, but now just sitting at break even since I started...

[atari5200]

i may not write on this thread but i watch it and last year's very closely. played the system for 3 years.

it would be great to see all of us move forward with this not spend the majority of posts repeating personal strategies. we appreciate the strategy talk but we need to get back to clarifying A, B, C bets and the versions. Then we make sure its a go and we place the correct % of BR on it.

too many posts dominated by only a few, Wilba in particular, but again your thoughts and ideas are appreciated and useful. Let's just focus on the priority of knowing which bet from which, confirm it, and then we can get back to strategy talk.

what do you guys think?

Boston (unofficial) B V3
Minnesota A V2
Cleveland (again) A V2

now you guys think this is correct?
spreadsheets posted on this thread have some errors but thanks for the work you put into it.