Originally posted by luzviminda
If the 3 team lose tomorrow th JM NBA season is over.
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If the 3 team lose tomorrow th JM NBA season is over.Comment -
I have been converted now by all the reassurance and will always buy points !! You are right they are there for a reason...
and yup, lets hope all goes well tonight and we can recover some money lost, I am atleast in high spirits and hoping for best
oh and JM would love to hear Your thoughts on Your picks tonight, You seem to be hitting the right note more often than not dude,
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...and yup the system has not been on fire I admit, and even with labby it is showing some serious deficit in my bankroll...
but like I said, heres hoping !! my lines unadjusted, so the two C bets will be bigger ones and the B bet again to win what I would have without the two losses...Comment -
tonight is a V1, B/C bettor's paradise. the 2 C's are now my B's, since i missed the 2 B's, & the B is as normal. think i'll just split the remainder of my bank 3 ways, & go for the gusto. enjoy your friday.
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Thats very interesting, I never knew that. But yes I found those point spread all time records a while ago, which is why I did backtesting on double digit dogs. Thanks for the tip JW, I will check that out in the service plays forumOriginally posted by JW Cash
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HI KEV - so then Golden State is up to a C bet in this system yes? they have only had 2 games this season where they were a +9 or more dog, and +600 or more on the ML (thse 2 games listed below)Originally posted by Kev the Brit
DATE OPPONENT SPREAD FINAL SCORE
Nov 21 @ Los Angeles Lakers 10.5 218 Lost 89 - 117 (lost by 28, 10.5 point dog)
Dec 8 @ San Antonio Spurs 10 213 Lost 94 - 111 (lost by 17, 10 point dog)
however they have had 2 other games where they were at least a +9 underdog, but woith both those games, they were not +600 or more money line, so from what you say the other 2 games did not count toward the system?
in other words, is >+9 dog spread enough to qualify a team in this system, or is the >+600 ML odds a requirement for team X to be a play?
Also please respond to my other post! I dont want people to think that what I posted earlier was incorrect because you did not understand/misread my method!
many thanks Kev, appreciate the JJ sys info as I was told something a little different by someone else, I assume that you have signed up yourself and this is how you know this info??Comment -
Im curious if you are only following A B and C for the same team. How many series will you have going at a time?
Also what happens if a team is only a double digit under dog once or twice in a season and they lose both the series is canceled?Comment -
Next JM V1 bets:
LAL [a bet] vs. Bulls
Detroit [c bet] vs. Minnesota ---> (Detroit is +3, in my opinion should be like +10)
Orlando [b bet] vs. Utah
Denver [c bet] vs. Toronto ---> (12/08/10 C.Anthony SF Knee Questionable for Dec. 10 at Toronto, if he is out im not touching this bet)
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Hello yall, i got a bit of a situation here, my bankroll isn't enough now to bet accordingly on the 3 picks of today...(i skipped washington B cuz of the worst team asterisk thingie).
So having not a lot of experience nor knowledge about the teams i wonder what should i do ? split what i have between the 3 bets (& keeping a bit for an eventual Orlando [c] ), or put it all on the C bets (since they theortkly hav the most chances of winning)... or skip Denver (potential injury) ? But right now the betus p.s for the Pistons is +2.5 which as dukipl says is a bit fishy...
Any advices are welcome , thxin advance & bol good ppl !Comment -
Originally posted by ghislaineI have been converted now by all the reassurance and will always buy points !! You are right they are there for a reason...
and yup, lets hope all goes well tonight and we can recover some money lost, I am atleast in high spirits and hoping for best
oh and JM would love to hear Your thoughts on Your picks tonight, You seem to be hitting the right note more often than not dude,
I'm trying to practice discipline and stay away from my own bets. All though they do seem to be doing well
I am liking a lot of underdogs this evening for 12/10/10
Total under 198.5 for Laker / bull game
Portland +6 vs Pho
Miami -8.5 (I think this will be a def blow out. Miami has found their groove and Curry and wright are both out for GSW).
NYK vs Wiz. Def. betting on NYK if spread is -10 or lower lol. Washington coming off road games and is overall a pretty bad team espcially with John wall being out.
Bobcats +6 vs Indy
OKC +3 vs NOH I just flat out think OKC is a better team. NOH after being on fire to start the season is inconsistent right now to say the least. Westbroke and durant and rest of OKC is playing very well right now. They kinda just go with the flow and always step on the gas pedal 4th quarter. Westbroke goes to the free throw line more than any other player in the league. I love his agressive approach to the game and with the lack of defense NOH has of recent Look for Westbrooke to have a career game.Comment -
Originally posted by HE.man
As expressed multiple times in this thread never bet to win more then 2% of your bankroll starting with A. You should of used better bankroll management. WIth that said lets hope you do not make that mistake again.
I would still bet that Denver game even with carmello out, but i wouldn't count it as a C bet. If I were you i see two options. Instead of risking your whole bankroll on three bets which would be dumb to say the least. I would either
1) start fresh and bet to win 2 units on each of the B and C wagers for today.
2) Bet it all on Miami! They will not lose vs GSW today. coming off injuries and they have only won 1 game out of their last 10!!! Miami is on a tear right now and seem to have found some chemistry. Money line will be some where around -500 which means for every $100 you bet you will win $20. Which isn't great, but under your circumstances you need any money you can get.
3) deposit more money so that you can cover all the wagers for today.Comment -
Nice one, Im so happy that you like my method of only betting B/C. When you do it this way, the C's instead of being scary are just really great money making opportunities. And its not like you are short on action waiting for B and C bets, every year at least 30-40 series go to B and beyond.Originally posted by jphiltonight is a V1, B/C bettor's paradise. the 2 C's are now my B's, since i missed the 2 B's, & the B is as normal. think i'll just split the remainder of my bank 3 ways, & go for the gusto. enjoy your friday.
Not sure if I will bet quite as aggressively as you tomorrow though! (with splitting whole roll between the 3 bets!!) but I will certainly be putting a good chunk on all three!
good luck tomorrow, I got little doubt we get a nice payday, especially with the pistons im really liking them.
ps another great JM V1 C bet win with the Tennessee Titans today! (with JM NFL) you get the same stuff over there in the JM NFL forum as in here when a C bet comes up: "the titans are so crap... i cant bring myself to bet on them because they are playing awfully... there is no way they will not get whupped by the colts" yada yada yada... I posted in there saying the same thing as I say with tomorrows C bets here - C bets hit ~80%!!! that hit rate for any odds better than 1.5 is phenomenal! Play the C bet!!
was a crazy game, the titans had me biting my nails when trailing 21-0 just before HT as 3 point underdogs, but they came back to cover losing 28-30!
lets go get em tomorrow guys - heres to hoping we pull a 3-0 clean sweep
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Originally posted by WilbaNice one, Im so happy that you like my method of only betting B/C. When you do it this way, the C's instead of being scary are just really great money making opportunities. And its not like you are short on action waiting for B and C bets, every year at least 30-40 series go to B and beyond.
Not sure if I will bet quite as aggressively as you tomorrow though! (with splitting whole roll between the 3 bets!!) but I will certainly be putting a good chunk on all three!
good luck tomorrow, I got little doubt we get a nice payday, especially with the pistons im really liking them.
ps another great JM V1 C bet win with the Tennessee Titans today! (with JM NFL) you get the same stuff over there in the JM NFL forum as in here when a C bet comes up: "the titans are so crap... i cant bring myself to bet on them because they are playing awfully... there is no way they will not get whupped by the colts" yada yada yada... I posted in there saying the same thing as I say with tomorrows C bets here - C bets hit ~80%!!! that hit rate for any odds better than 1.5 is phenomenal! Play the C bet!!
was a crazy game, the titans had me biting my nails when trailing 21-0 just before HT as 3 point underdogs, but they came back to cover losing 28-30!
lets go get em tomorrow guys - heres to hoping we pull a 3-0 clean sweep
f'n eh! wilba!!
let's lose all 3 tomorrow, & still be on top by season's end. (w/ no labby!)
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There are still plenty of series wagers coming up HE.Man. Consider taking the bankroll you have now and mutliple it by .02. What ever the answer to that math problem is the amount you should wager from here on out for the rest of the season and of course follow the chase method and buy 3pts. It is profitable just excercise some discipline and bankroll management. It all works out in the end, so dont get greedy and risk your bankroll cause even with a system that is 97% you can still lose your bankroll espcially when situations like this come up and you dont manage your money enough and have it all on the line every series. 97% win and you are risking your bankroll every single series is not smart. Eventually you will lose it if you do this. Do not believe John Morrison when he tells you that you can risk 10% of your bankroll for A and by the end of the season you will make a million dollars. I assure you that is a lie and is almost mathmatically impossible. You wont even have enough of a bankroll to double your bet buying 3pts when it comes to C.
READ EVERY PAGE OF THIS THREAD AND BY THE TIME YOU ARE DONE, YOU WILL HAVE THE ANSWER TO ALL YOUR QUESTIONS.Comment -
when is the last time these jm injuries & filters, & so called capping experts opinions, etc. really mattered?; & when it may have really mattered, how long did it finally take jm to finally take his f'n hands off his COLIONES to let us know?? Any stats on wins vs. losses when those situations come up?
love,hugs & kisses,
jphil, the lovable.Comment -
dude you are always so negative... you must realise that it is a 3 game series, if you are not prepared to play all three and manage your bankroll well, sorry to say that you prob should not play them at all. If losing 2 C bets means that your season is over, then you should have managed your bankroll better. Not trying to give you crap, its just that I only ever see you posting negative things, as long as you have been in this thread for, including blaming someone else when you didnt play miami a couple days ago which is just outrageous, it was completely your decision to not play miami, so dont try to blame someone else if you didnt play it.Originally posted by luzviminda
The C's tomorrow have about a 64% chance of both winning, a 34% chance of a 1-1 split, and a 4% chance of both losing. they are very good % for the odds you get of 1.53 or better. Simple as thatComment -
Originally posted by dukipl
As stated in a previous post. I do not believe Lakers are a play tomorrow. Lakers won on "A level" already vs the Clippers. Sure they did not cover the spread, however if you follow the system exactly it says to bet on the ML. There for the series is already over.
I like Detroit at +5.5 tomorrow vs Min as C bet. Dont go and bet your whole bankroll on it cause as Wilba said "C wagers' win about 80% of the time. C wager is probably something like 15% of your bankroll just a guess.
Orl vs utah should make for an interesting game. I have no prediction for that cause either team could catch fire at any point in the game.
Denver only qualifies if Anthony plays. So if you get some inside info about him playing get your bet in early before the spread changes to Denver being a favorite.
Im going to wait until near game time to place my bets, so that public drives the lines incredibly high and i get the best lines then.Comment -
Hi JM - i would strongly strongly disagree with your suggestion. You say that it is too risky putting the rest of his roll split between the 3 JM bets, but not at all risky putting his whole roll on Miami ML? in my opinion that is insane, I would think both of the C bets have pretty much as good a chance of covering as miami has of winning ML. All 3 have about an 80% chance IMO, maybe miami has 90% win chance, but look how much worse the odds are (1.2 compared to 1.53)! the payout for the JM bets is so much better IMO with pretty much the same win chance.Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
As compared to all on miami i would much rather split my whole roll between the 3 JM bets - I would do about 17.5% on orlando, 35% on denver, and 47.5% on detroit if I was in that situation. I would find it extremely surprising if at least 2/3 do not win tomorrow. I would be shitting myself putting my whole roll on 3 bets tho! I guess it depends how much money is in 'the rest of your roll'
But JM disciple is def right in saying that you just have to be more careful with your roll management in the first place. Not leaving enough to cover C bets (plus plenty left over) is just suicide, because missing the C bets is the absolute worst thing you can do, they are by far the biggest money maker.
ps I dont think that Detroit +3 is in any way fishy. I reckon that spread is exactly where it should be. You do realise that they are playing minnesota right? (to whoever said it was fishy)Comment -
Mmm, believe me i started with 3% bankroll A bets, i just got caught in the steve nash disaster + i missed on the washington B win, & it goes fast when u got 2 C bets & a B one in the same day... anyway thx for the quick response, i'll wait for JM's mail & decide then... also i'm glad betus upped the odds to 1.58 this year (last 1 was 1.5 ) Also i agree with Wilba, it's not 5 losses so far, if u understand the system it's 0 losses for now, don't jinx us luzviminda dude... i'm bored with all those ppl not saying a thx or a thing when they winning but spitting liters of venom whenever things don't go their noobish way. (u should have seen the MLB thread this season, made me sick...)Originally posted by J.M. DiscipleComment -
Originally posted by jphilf'n eh! wilba!! let's lose all 3 tomorrow, & still be on top by season's end. (w/ no labby!) I hope not lose all 3! cant see it happening but that would suck major ass! 
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Spread sheet of upcoming and previous bets.
I hope this helps for those of you who didn't go back and get the spread sheets that were posted in Earlier. This is V1-V3 for the entire season.Comment -
can you give me a quick math break down wilba. I dont understand the math when you say 1.2 or 1.5. Are you just talking about 1/1.2 = 83% and 1 / 1.5 = 67% Im just more use to % and not fractions. I guess you could say im dumb when it comes to fractions lol.Comment -
yeah I hear you on all accounts (and i did see MLB forum u r right it is sick the way ppl carry on), completely agree with everything you say. Very easy to get out of hand when a few C's and B's come up together, esp when you play from A. For this reason, I think if you are playing series right from the A bet, even betting to win 2% of roll is too much, coz when you play from A you have to remember that whatever you bet to win on the A is multiplied by 20 times if the series loses. Hence even a play to win 2% from A means you lose 40% of your bankroll on a losing series. IMO that is way too much, I would never risk more than 20-25% of my roll on a single series.Originally posted by HE.man
So based on that I think playing from A to win any more than 1% of your bank roll is too much, as you are finding out right now.
Sorry to hear you have got yourself into a bad spot, hopefully tomorrow will help pull you at least partway out of it, and unfortunately it looks like you might have to significantly reduce your 'to win' size for next seriesComment -
no worries, maybe i was not very clear, I was just talking about the odds of the respective games in terms of decimal odds. decimal odds is what I am more familiar with as opposed to the +120 or -180 or whatever american style odds.Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
So all I meant was that
Miami has payout of -500 which is equivalent to 1.2 decimal odds (ie win 20 cents for every dollar you risk)
JM C bets have payout of ~-180 which is equivalent to 1.55 decimal odds (ie win 55 cents for every dollar you risk)
does this answer your question?Comment -
Well i'mleft with about 290$ with a all time high of about 460 this season, i went a bit high on the detroit & denver (B) bets to make up for passing on washington, & that's my mistake i reckon, i appreciate your "%ed" advice tho, that's what i was looking for ty, & dont b too "mean" with Disciple strong instinct toward Miami
As compared to all on miami i would much rather split my whole roll between the 3 JM bets - I would do about 17.5% on orlando, 35% on denver, and 47.5% on detroit if I was in that situation. I would find it extremely surprising if at least 2/3 do not win tomorrow. I would be shitting myself putting my whole roll on 3 bets tho! I guess it depends how much money is in 'the rest of your roll'
ps I dont think that Detroit +3 is in any way fishy. I reckon that spread is exactly where it should be. You do realise that they are playing minnesota right? (to whoever said it was fishy) , i know the feeling...
This said, for now i dont really gamble for the gains , but more for learning the methods & for the sensations i still remember last NBA season, last game , NY B bet, all my bankroll on it (cuz JM said they never lost a final gameof the season) i was on a cloud for weeks :P
But now i'm trying to b a bit more reasonable so again thxfor the advices dudes !Comment -
I think with the two "C wagers" we have lost so far this season starting from "A level" we are still showing a very small profit of 1 unit.
2 series loss of the C wager is -18 units and -18 units and Pho series canceled -2 units. With all the other wins though through the season I believe we are still up 1 unit Its not much, but the system doesn't have too many losses so getting the losses out of the way early in the season might be a good thing. Lets hope it doesn't lose any more.
Wilba Help me out with some quick math please. You seem to be better at it than i am.
What odds and i know you stated this before do you need to at least break even with
-170 odds? 63% (1 / 2.7 )
-190? 66%
-200? 67%?Comment -
You got it right ^^ i know the theory, i even considered what would be the amount to bet in A , if i were to make up for a lost serie with the next one (as the odds of losing two C bets in a row are insignificant), i dont remember exactly but as u must hav guessed it involves a huge bankroll for still ridiculous A bets amounts, & when i see how often "A wins in a row series" occur, it's like "wasting profits for safety" ,well, i got to start saving up or win the lotery 1st :POriginally posted by WilbaComment -
so with the C bets hitting 80% of the time and you say its 1.55 odds which means @ 1.55 you only need to hit 60% + to break even.
I dont understand where the 1.55 comes from though because after buying 3pts its -170.Comment -
your maths is clearly better than you give yourself credit for because all that you say is right! (rounded to nearest whole number)Originally posted by J.M. DiscipleI think with the two "C wagers" we have lost so far this season starting from "A level" we are still showing a very small profit of 1 unit.
2 series loss of the C wager is -18 units and -18 units and Pho series canceled -2 units. With all the other wins though through the season I believe we are still up 1 unit Its not much, but the system doesn't have too many losses so getting the losses out of the way early in the season might be a good thing. Lets hope it doesn't lose any more.
Wilba Help me out with some quick math please. You seem to be better at it than i am.
What odds and i know you stated this before do you need to at least break even with
-170 odds? 63% (1 / 2.7 )
-190? 66%
-200? 67%?Comment -
I'm trying to go back and find your post when you stated how often A B and C wins. I know you said "A" was 61% over like 1130 series. I'm trying to find where you posted the B and C % as well. I want to compare that with the 66% and 67% and try to figure out what ROI you will have on your money.
With 66% being the % you need to break even at -190 odds. What would be your return on investment for every $100 for B and C level?Comment -
1) you need to hit 64.5% of the time to break even with odds of 1.55Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
2) very few people get odds as good as -170 for buying 3 points. Who here actually gets -170 lets do a mini poll.
I get -188 odds at pinnacle sports, which is decimal odds of 1.532. I post 1.55 because my guess is that that is about the average odds that people get for buying 3 points.
Do you get -170 for 3 points? you must be one of the lucky few if you do, what book you get that at?Comment -
im out of time. sorry but i have provided a lost of info and spent too many hours posting and reposting on this thread already. illl post this one more time but after that i cant do any more so ppl will have to just look through thread if they want somethingOriginally posted by J.M. Disciple
A bets win 61.48%
(note that winning 61.5% of games at -170 odds you lose money, need 63% win rate just to break even)
B bets win 66.29%
C bets win 78.15%Comment -
I can guaranty you that if you check out, you will throw away JM selection because a series lost with JM system will cost you 18.5 points while with Rich system will cost you just 7.5 points.Originally posted by WilbaThats very interesting, I never knew that. But yes I found those point spread all time records a while ago, which is why I did backtesting on double digit dogs. Thanks for the tip JW, I will check that out in the service plays forum
You don't need to buy 3 points you only need half point at times...
One of the follower dedicate Rich Play spread sheet for this year, this the link to the Spread sheet below ....
You highly welcome, I will love you to join us bcos i always enjoy your post...Comment -
B bets hit 297/448 games (66.29%)
C bets hit 118/151 games (78.15%)
I was going to say I found your post # at 2006. So i was going back and rereading the things. I wasn't trying to waste your time.
with V1 Betus increase the juice before buying points to -130 which means after buying points it will be -190. HOwever with the v2 and v3 bets betus usually gets -170 odds so it depends on what verision it is.
At -190 odds on betus you need a 66% to break even. There for is it even worth betting on B if you are getting -190 odds? That seems break even to me which is why other sports books are recomended.
Also lets say someone does get -170 odds and B wager wins 66% of the time, but at -170 you only need 63%. With that 4% difference What would your ROI be?
$100 bettors are risking $100 to win $59 at -170 odds. So lets break it down over 100 games to determine the ROI.
66wins and 34 losses.
66 x $59 = $3,894
34 x $100 = $3,400
Profit = $494
ROI = $494 / (total investment of $100 x 100 bets = $10,000 ) = a .0494 or just about a 5% roi so for every $100 you invest into a B wager at -170 odds you can expect a return of $5.
This is not to say you shouldn't bet on B because of the small profit. Remember it is a chase system which is what makes it extremely profitable long term. By end of the season you can expect to win any where between 50-100 units as posted in earlier threads.Comment -
no worries JM - that post (spending too much time posting) was not directed at you, more at myself, as I get caught up in this thread because i like discussing this stuff, and i end up going to bed much later than i should!
all the bestComment
