Noob capping questions, ask away!

**sweetjones55** · 04-02-10, 09:52 AM

I'll be around most of the day today if anyone has any other questions, specific questions about certain games are welcomed also. I am capping every game now.

**lakerboy** · 04-02-10, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I'll be around most of the day today if anyone has any other questions, specific questions about certain games are welcomed also. I am capping every game now.

Send me a pm telling me what you mean by capping each game- please.

**sweetjones55** · 04-04-10, 06:53 PM

Bump this up, any other questions are more than welcomed.

**sweetjones55** · 04-07-10, 03:09 PM

Well I got a question for a you sharps.. How do you go about picking/capping 1H totals? What do you look for and what situations are profitable?

**lakerboy** · 04-07-10, 03:13 PM

tnt thursday games take all first half overs- seems to be working but i have no stats cause i am not a sharp

**sweetjones55** · 04-07-10, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

tnt thursday games take all first half overs- seems to be working but i have no stats cause i am not a sharp

Nice I'll take a look at these from now on. Come on where all the sharps here on SBR? What leaks do you look for in 1H totals?

**shoebox** · 04-07-10, 07:07 PM

SJ you are the only sharp here bud !

**sweetjones55** · 04-07-10, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

SJ you are the only sharp here bud !

Ya I know, I know you are not hating and you really think I am the greatest capper in the world and I'm the only sharp on here. Your sarcasm blows, try and bring something informative to the thread if not stay out.

**shoebox** · 04-07-10, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Ya I know, I know you are not hating and you really think I am the greatest capper in the world and I'm the only sharp on here. Your sarcasm blows, try and bring something informative to the thread if not stay out.

my sarcasm blows? I give you props and you still think im hatin.....

**shoebox** · 04-07-10, 07:17 PM

Dude your hiting 60%

**sweetjones55** · 04-07-10, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

Dude your hiting 60%

Originally posted by shoebox

SJ you are the only sharp here bud !

So since I'm hitting close to 60% that means I am the only sharp on here? You are making yourself look really, really stupid if you aren't being sarcastic.

**shoebox** · 04-07-10, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

So since I'm hitting close to 60% that means I am the only sharp on here? You are making yourself look really, really stupid if you aren't being sarcastic.

Im not your doing a great job, chill..... or chillax

**sweetjones55** · 04-07-10, 07:24 PM

Ok thanks but there's no need to say I am the only sharp on here, it's not true and you should know that by now. There are a ton of really sharp cappers on here, way sharper than me. You are selling a ton of people short and honestly insulting them calling me the only sharp here.

**shoebox** · 04-07-10, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Ok thanks but there's no need to say I am the only sharp on here, it's not true and you should know that by now. There are a ton of really sharp cappers on here, way sharper than me. You are selling a ton of people short and honestly insulting them calling me the only sharp here.

Ok SJ top 3 capper here

1) LB
2) SJ
3) GoldenGreek

boom!!!

**sweetjones55** · 04-07-10, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

Ok SJ top 3 capper here

1) LB
2) SJ
3) GoldenGreek

boom!!!

Just shut up, you are a hater and your PM just confirmed that. Go back to your thread and pick winners.

**shoebox** · 04-07-10, 07:42 PM

Man your a firecracker, I was implying that I like people like you....

**shoebox** · 04-08-10, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by shoebox

Ok SJ top 3 capper here

1) LB
2) SJ
3) GoldenGreek

boom!!!

LB tonight makes bank

SJ

the board

**sweetjones55** · 04-10-10, 11:46 AM

Any other questions you guys have about capping your own games or specific questions about any games coming up just go ahead and fire away. I enjoy answering these questions and helping people out but also I feel that I learn something in answering some of the questions.

**sweetjones55** · 04-23-10, 07:47 AM

I had to re-up this quote from this thread from about a month ago....

Originally posted by lyon804

I have been here since day 1 of the NBA season and I remember you started a thread awhile back telling everybody how you was going to own it and it flamed out in less than 10 days and you were MIA from then on.

Now you start individual threads and have hit 3 games in a row

Takes more than that. soon you will miss a couple in a row and flame out again.

I am now 62-19-1 (69%) since you made this comment with my total and game of the year winners and finally got to my goal of 60% on my total NBA record this season. So much for flaming out.

**sweetjones55** · 06-09-10, 01:55 PM

If anyone has anymore questions regarding capping the NBA let me know, I enjoy answering the questions and sometimes my answers teach me something I may have not thought about or forgot.

**lyon804** · 06-09-10, 02:35 PM

I have some questions about handicapping. I would like to know some of the general things you look for when you are looking at a game. Think more regular season than playoffs since the regular season has way more data to select from. I would like to know what situations you are looking at. I know it may be hard now since we techically don't have anything to disect at the moment. SJ, is there any classic situations you look for and begin to make opinions with that.

EX: Something like team playing B2B on the road heading into Denver/Utah.

Obviously you have something you probably are looking at as a classic example or situaition.

I am just curious of some criteria or paramaters that you use to form opinions or leans on games if you will.

Maybe, think back to a wager(s) you won in the regular season that had more situational value rather than just statistical qualifications.

**sweetjones55** · 06-09-10, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

I have some questions about handicapping. I would like to know some of the general things you look for when you are looking at a game. Think more regular season than playoffs since the regular season has way more data to select from. I would like to know what situations you are looking at. I know it may be hard now since we techically don't have anything to disect at the moment. SJ, is there any classic situations you look for and begin to make opinions with that.

EX: Something like team playing B2B on the road heading into Denver/Utah.

Obviously you have something you probably are looking at as a classic example or situaition.

I am just curious of some criteria or paramaters that you use to form opinions or leans on games if you will.

Maybe, think back to a wager(s) you won in the regular season that had more situational value rather than just statistical qualifications.

Bet against Sacramento when they go on their downsouth road trip every year @ATL, @ORL, and @MIA. They are just downright terrible on this cross country road trip and this date backs for a decade now. They are in particularly really, really bad in the last game of this stretch.

I also look for the Cavs coming off a 1Q home loss straight up during the regular season. They usually bounce back after a 1Q home loss in their next 1Q.

I also obviously like to fade any team coming off an OT win, especially if on B2B. You have to take this line early because the line never moves in your favor.

Another thing I look for is just lines that don't make sense at all. The best one I can think off was Orlando on the road favored by 2 against Dallas. It was just a downright horrible situation for Dallas and the line was telling you just that. Sure enough Orlando blew them out from start to finish.

Don't fade Portland on B2B, for whatever reason they don't lose on B2B even when the situation looks terrible for them (ie 3rd game in 4 days on B2B). I don't think this will change much next year with them bringing back the same team.

Also I am a firm believer in betting on a team when their star player is out. I am positive this hit way above 55% this year. And betting on the worst teams in the league coming off a road win in their next home game, they cover and win this game a lot.

Just try to watch as many games as possible and look at all the box scores of every game and figure out exactly why teams are winning and why they are losing. Also, take a look at all the quarter and half stats as much as possible. I pretty much know what quarters every team in the NBA are good and bad in from looking at hoopsstats.com quarter by quarter results all year long. This helped me a lot coming up with 1Q plays and also when deciding between 1H and Game plays. It has a lot of good stats too in terms of what teams come back when down at half and who doesn't (the Heat don't)

**lyon804** · 06-09-10, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Bet against Sacramento when they go on their downsouth road trip every year @ATL, @ORL, and @MIA. They are just downright terrible on this cross country road trip and this date backs for a decade now. They are in particularly really, really bad in the last game of this stretch.

I also look for the Cavs coming off a 1Q home loss straight up during the regular season. They usually bounce back after a 1Q home loss in their next 1Q.

I also obviously like to fade any team coming off an OT win, especially if on B2B. You have to take this line early because the line never moves in your favor.

Another thing I look for is just lines that don't make sense at all. The best one I can think off was Orlando on the road favored by 2 against Dallas. It was just a downright horrible situation for Dallas and the line was telling you just that. Sure enough Orlando blew them out from start to finish.

Don't fade Portland on B2B, for whatever reason they don't lose on B2B even when the situation looks terrible for them (ie 3rd game in 4 days on B2B). I don't think this will change much next year with them bringing back the same team.

Also I am a firm believer in betting on a team when their star player is out. I am positive this hit way above 55% this year. And betting on the worst teams in the league coming off a road win in their next home game, they cover and win this game a lot.

All excellent examples. You are sharp to be able to recall so many right off hand considering you haven't used them in awhile.

**sweetjones55** · 06-09-10, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

All excellent examples. You are sharp to be able to recall so many right off hand considering you haven't used them in awhile.

The worst teams are especially bad in the 3Q so when you got a great team up by a lot at half like the Lakers vs the Nets, you will usually get a small line for the Lakers in the 3Q which is a solid bet. So basically, bet great teams when up by a lot at half for the 3Q vs inferior opponents if the 3Q line is relatively small.

People look at the score of the game at half and see Lakers up by 17 and think damn they got to be up by 19 after the 3rd for me to cash. You shouldn't really look at it like that. They just have to win one quarter by 2 points is the way I see it and against a bad team that isn't a problem for them.

**lyon804** · 06-09-10, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

The worst teams are especially bad in the 3Q so when you got a great team up by a lot at half like the Lakers vs the Nets, you will usually get a small line for the Lakers in the 3Q which is a solid bet. So basically, bet great teams when up by a lot at half for the 3Q vs inferior opponents if the 3Q line is relatively small.

I like that example. During most of the regular season this example held true for the Lakers and one time at half I actually posted I took Lakers for the 3Q and took Detroit for 4Q. Both bets won and this was a major trend at one time. The Lakers were losing almost every 4Q at home this year ATS because by then the 4Q was irrelevant to them and it was scrub city time.

**sweetjones55** · 06-09-10, 03:28 PM

I will be taking a strong look at taking teams in the 2nd quarter that are good teams but struggle in the 1st quarter. You don't see Vegas giving inflated 2Q lines like they do the 1Q yet and you never see juiced 2Q lines like you see 1Q lines. I think this will be highly profitable next year once I get it figured out. Boston is the best 2Q team so I will track this early on with for sure.

**lyon804** · 06-09-10, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I will be taking a strong look at taking teams in the 2nd quarter that are good teams but struggle in the 1st quarter. You don't see Vegas giving inflated 2Q lines like they do the 1Q yet and you never see juiced 2Q lines like you see 1Q lines. I think this will be highly profitable next year once I get it figured out. Boston is the best 2Q team so I will track this early on with for sure.

Do you have a database to recall or do you use that website you mentioned.

Also, do you know if I can get historical NBA 2H lines anywere for past games? Maybe a 5 yr period or 10yr or any amount of time would be great.

You know at covers you can get results from the past for all teams for full game spread and total and outcome. I was wandering if I could get this same info for 2H spreads/totals/results anywere?

I want to start to study past results of 2H lines

**dume walker** · 06-09-10, 03:36 PM

Couple of questions... First off, how long into the season do you feel you have to go before you have enough stats -- such as the ones you've posted above -- before you can get an accurate enough read to get a good winning percentage on your plays?

Do you feel the breakdowns you posted above would apply accurately to the beginning of next season, or do you feel you need to wait to see how things play out with personnel changes, etc. before you're willing to put significant coin on a given wager? Of your many admirable capping/betting traits one I admire most is your willingness to lay off bets if you get a gut feeling they might not hit, even though (like Boston 2Q last night) they'd been money in the bank previously. Because of this I'm guessing you'd want to get a feel for a few months of a new season to see if your trends are still holding up before betting larger units with confidence.

Finally, do you have a checklist or a rhythm or pattern you go through when capping each individual game -- as opposed to the trend-spotting mentioned above -- and, if so, would you care to share what that checklist is?

TIA for all the insights.

**sweetjones55** · 06-09-10, 03:37 PM

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball...uarters/10/2/1 (just change team name)

I use this to get the 2Q PF/PA and the SU records for teams specifically in the 2Q.

hoop data dot com (it doesn't let me put the URL for some reason)

I use this site to just go through the box scores really fast and look at the scores for 2Q of teams. I use this to see if teams are streaking in a certain quarter or losing.

I haven't been able to find a site that shows how teams have fared in the 2Q ATS.

**sweetjones55** · 06-09-10, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

Couple of questions... First off, how long into the season do you feel you have to go before you have enough stats -- such as the ones you've posted above -- before you can get an accurate enough read to get a good winning percentage on your plays?

Do you feel the breakdowns you posted above would apply accurately to the beginning of next season, or do you feel you need to wait to see how things play out with personnel changes, etc. before you're willing to put significant coin on a given wager? Of your many admirable capping/betting traits one I admire most is your willingness to lay off bets if you get a gut feeling they might not hit, even though (like Boston 2Q last night) they'd been money in the bank previously. Because of this I'm guessing you'd want to get a feel for a few months of a new season to see if your trends are still holding up before betting larger units with confidence.

Finally, do you have a checklist or a rhythm or pattern you go through when capping each individual game -- as opposed to the trend-spotting mentioned above -- and, if so, would you care to share what that checklist is?

TIA for all the insights.

I think that right around halfway through the season I have enough data but I can still win early on. I just have to pick games where there are two teams who haven't changed much during the offseason. Say like the Hornets playing the Blazers or Bobcats and Magic. I don't think those teams will change much and it shouldn't be too hard to handicap those kind of games. I just have to be much more selective early in the season. I might not bet any games on a night with 10 games.

I don't really have a SET checklist for each play to be honest. A lot of times I will just see the bet coming without doing any research whatsoever. It just kind of pops up into my head, it sounds weird I know. I took Boston Team Total OVER 92 the other night. I picked that play without looking at a single thing. I of course went on to do the research but I knew that my research was going to support the play. I went back and looked how many times they had gone under 92 in these playoffs then looked at the few times they did go UNDER 92 and looked at the box score of that game and how many points they scored in the next game and the box score of that game. I also looked at the refs to see if any heavily favored the OVER or UNDER. I know I do have a checklist but it kind of changes depending on if the play is a side, team total, total or quarter bet. I will try and come up with the checklists this week.
In general though, you want to look at past results and box scores of the matchup, how the teams have fared in their last 5 games or so, recent trends, injuries, look at the rest for both teams and how many games they have played lately, read the local newspaper articles for both teams, public betting numbers, line movement (most importantly early and late), refs and lastly go on SweetJones55 thread and make sure he isn't on the other side lol

**fly fisher** · 06-09-10, 03:42 PM

wow, lots of good info SJ and Lyons. I will be looking at this thread more and taking notes. I am spending a lot of time trying to figure out baseball and learning a few things. One thing I know for sure, I learned some this year from you SJ, and a bunch of others like LB, but I have a long way to go. I can cap 1H okay and struggle with 2nd halves despite a lot of one on one teaching from Expert Capper, but I will be able to hold my own next year with it. Just know it is definitely a grind like Houli said and I got to put in my 40 hrs per week at work too. Still thought I should say thanks again.

**lyon804** · 06-09-10, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball...uarters/10/2/1 (just change team name)

I use this to get the 2Q PF/PA and the SU records for teams specifically in the 2Q.

hoop data dot com (it doesn't let me put the URL for some reason)

I use this site to just go through the box scores really fast and look at the scores for 2Q of teams. I use this to see if teams are streaking in a certain quarter or losing.

I haven't been able to find a site that shows how teams have fared in the 2Q ATS.

I like the site as well, but do you know if it is possible to get (PAST) 2H lines for spreads/totals/results the same way we can get that data for full games. I think that info would be valuable in a DB over thousands of games because 2H's become more predicatable and the 2H line doesn't correlate with the full game line. I have seen patterns in the past and would like to test out my theories in 2H's

**sweetjones55** · 06-09-10, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

I like the site as well, but do you know if it is possible to get (PAST) 2H lines for spreads/totals/results the same way we can get that data for full games. I think that info would be valuable in a DB over thousands of games because 2H's become more predicatable and the 2H line doesn't correlate with the full game line. I have seen patterns in the past and would like to test out my theories in 2H's

Nope, if you find a site let me know

**TopGun1** · 06-09-10, 04:07 PM

Sweetjones, just wanted to say thank you for putting the time in and sharing your thoughts.

I joined the site this year but this is my second year of betting - although I've done well during my time I never realised there was so much to learn.

I've been impressed with your rational, unbiased analysis which is spot on more often than not, all presented without attitude or ego.

Great job, please keep it up, and thanks. Good luck to you for the rest of the finals and next year

**lyon804** · 06-09-10, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Nope, if you find a site let me know

Will do. I asked this same question in the handicapping think tank here. I hope to get something back but it seems kinda doubtful. I think we would be well served to start compiling the data oursleves for future reference and then we could run queries in the future against it to see trends that developed.

As you well know depending on the outcome of the 1H the 2H otcome ATS can be another animal. But I think it is somewhat a more predictable animal.

When I first got into gambling (football) I started taking a team that was winning at half for the 2H that was getting point and had success with it.

I got one for you that works in college basketball real well in the past but I don't have hard data to prove it.

EX: A team is favored for the game and goes out in the 1H and is winning the full game line, but are dogs (slightly) for the 2H.

EX say Purdue vs Indiana and Pudue is -4 for game but is winning by 15 at half but are +3 for 2H. Take Purdue +3 2H. It works way more than it doesn't.

Note: this theory is not good for NBA and you won't get a ton of games like this but it has worked well in the past for me.