Noob capping questions, ask away!

[lakerboy]

but this article says -5.5 road faves are profitable.

no lets get this right. you take the +5.5 team that the public is not on. so in tonights case as you can see the +5.5 teams that were not public choices all covered. The 5.5 team that is not the public choice. the article was just posted to point out that 5.5 is a dangerous #.

[texhooper]

am i reading the article wrong? it looks like tonight was an anomaly based on the year's stats so far in regards to 5.5 point road faves.

[texhooper]

no lets get this right. you take the +5.5 team that the public is not on. so in tonights case as you can see the +5.5 teams that were not public choices all covered. The 5.5 team that is not the public choice. the article was just posted to point out that 5.5 is a dangerous #.

right, i gotcha now. the article posts a winning number for 5.5 point road faves, that's all i was looking at. that's where this guy was coming in because i knew you had something you were referring to.

[lyon804]

The article was a good read and gives support to some of the same beliefs I have. It's interesting why certain #'s carry more weight than others ATS.

[sweetjones55]

"

[sweetjones55]

Also what is your opinion of a -5.5 point road favorite? More to the point the actual spread of 5.5 not who is playing.

Usually though any time I see a line right under an even number like 5.5 or 3.5 I usually think the other team is the correct play. The public just thinks, "O great my team just has to win by three shots or two in the 3.5 case".

Well first off as soon as I see a 5.5. home dog I almost always wait to see what the public betting numbers look like and see how the line reacts. I hate betting huge public plays so I usually always wait a bit to get an idea of where they are going. Even though I can almost always tell which way they are going to place their money, I like to find out for a fact.

In the NBA though the teams that are perceived to be good teams are bad/below average on the road. Atlanta, Toronto, Charlotte, Miami, Milwaukee are all playoff teams and are generally thought of as pretty good teams but don't even have a winning record on the road. I would bet that most people don't even know that Atlanta is below .500 on the road. Bottom line the home team usually wins in the NBA so betting road teams to have to cover a big amount like 5.5 is a a tough proposition to take up. The Kings for example are garbage but I do not like to bet on them against home because they are capable of beating most teams on any given night at home, they get a ton of calls. I think in general +5.5 homedogs are good bets as long as they aren't playing a team that has a shot at the championship and it's not the Nets lol.

I see this line a ton for the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road in the last couple of years. In general, they do particularly well covering medium sized spreads on the road. They were actually favored by 5.5 in their last game @ New Orleans. I don't mind taking the Cavs, Lakers, Nuggets and a few other teams on the road as nice sized favorites. The teams I like to take with -5.5 road spreads mostly have similar qualities. They are known to pour it on people and blow people out. They have a good bench and don't give up leads when they take out their starters and give up stupid backdoor covers in the last 4 minutes of the game. The starters are relatively young and don't fade late often.

Did you miss my answer to your question LB?

[sweetjones55]

Next time make sure you go and look for my answers to your question before you come and flame me and make yourself look really dumb.

[sweetjones55]

If anyone has any other questions, I will be around today til around 5PM ET to answer them.

[vyomguy]

How to find 3rd quarter stats in hoopstats...I fiddled around...but I couldnt find quarter stats.

[sweetjones55]

How to find 3rd quarter stats in hoopstats...I fiddled around...but I couldnt find quarter stats.

Go to the front page of www.hoopsstats.com. Scroll your mouse over "NBA Teams" and click any team. Then on the next page like at the top all the way on the right and click the tab that says "By Quarter". Quarter stats are all on there.

[lakerboy]

How did I not help you? I said "I think in general +5.5 homedogs are good bets as long as they aren't playing a team that has a shot at the championship and it's not the Nets lol." and that "any time I see a line right under an even number like 5.5 or 3.5 I usually think the other team is the correct play. The public just thinks, "O great my team just has to win by three shots or two in the 3.5 case"."

Atlanta and Utah have zero shot at a championship in my mind. Denver is a championship type team but you still would have gone 2-1 or 2-0 taking my advice.

Sorry buddy i went 3-0 with my own advice. Buddy you need to stop acting like god. Relax and have a beer.

[sweetjones55]

Sorry buddy i went 3-0 with my own advice. Buddy you need to stop acting like god. Relax and have a beer.

How am I acting like god? That is probably the most ridiculous thing I have read in a long time and there are some crazy things said on SBR. I am just answering questions that fellow cappers have on here about NBA betting, trying my best to help others out. That is what this forum is all about or at least I thought it was. You seem to be the only one that has a real problem with me doing this and I really don't understand why.

[TodaysAction]

Sorry buddy i went 3-0 with my own advice. Buddy you need to stop acting like god. Relax and have a beer.

So says the guy who created this thread,

Who wants my NBA plays? ( 1 2 3 ... Last Page) lakerboy

Which was a thread that you were only going to PM 10 or people your plays ...

Now before you get on your high horse, I'm not going to get into a war of words with you or anyone else here, but think it's humorous you telling him to relax when you made a thread trying to put a demand for your selections. Good luck with your wagering style.

[TodaysAction]

sweetjones55,

Sorry for not getting the responses posted sooner as it was nice enough to go riding this afternoon and I should have my answers posted shortly after halftime ends.

[lakerboy]

SJ keep doing whatever you are doing. We are all glad to have your wisdom here.Im a firm believer in NOT overthinking and NOT using too many stats. I simply look at a game and know right away there is something wrong with the line or the line is right on. Your doing a great job here answering 20 questions.


BOTTOMLINE IS THE MORE INFO YOU HAVE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WILL MAKE A SKETCHY DECISION. ITS ALL ABOUT LINE MOVEMENTS FOR ME.


Also SJ teach us how buying points makes any sense please? I mean you are already making a-ev wager to begin with at -110 most likely and if you cant make the call there why spend more to get a # that you think will favor you when in reality it will hardly make a difference.

[lakerboy]

So says the guy who created this thread,


Which was a thread that you were only going to PM 10 or people your plays ...

Now before you get on your high horse, I'm not going to get into a war of words with you or anyone else here, but think it's humorous you telling him to relax when you made a thread trying to put a demand for your selections. Good luck with your wagering style.

No worries im not gonna fight with you. We all know how you operate. Nice putting the sign there. Just so i wont say anything lol.

[sweetjones55]

SJ keep doing whatever you are doing. We are all glad to have your wisdom here.Im a firm believer in NOT overthinking and NOT using too many stats. I simply look at a game and know right away there is something wrong with the line or the line is right on. Your doing a great job here answering 20 questions.


BOTTOMLINE IS THE MORE INFO YOU HAVE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WILL MAKE A SKETCHY DECISION. ITS ALL ABOUT LINE MOVEMENTS FOR ME.


Also SJ teach us how buying points makes any sense please? I mean you are already making a-ev wager to begin with at -110 most likely and if you cant make the call there why spend more to get a # that you think will favor you when in reality it will hardly make a difference.

LB, I personally don't think I overthink plays or use too many stats. I think at this point in my gambling career I know which stats are most important and should be valued. Obviously, there are a ton of trends that really don't matter.

I also value line movement a ton, I would say at least 90% of the time that I go heavy on a game, the line movement looks good for my play, ie RLM or no movement on a line when the public is pounding one team big time. Today I like Portland and the line moved a point with only a slight majority on Portland.

I think you are probably right about buying points being -EV. I think I have just gotten lucky in my life and have hit a good amount of plays by buying hooks so I do it every now and then. I do agree though that in reality it won't really make a difference a large amount of the time and may not be the smartest thing to do a lot of the time. I think a lot of times I do it because I get upset that I missed the line at it's highest value. This is a leak I need to work on. I usually only buy points and hooks though when I am up for the week and can afford to lose a little more juice. This is a very debatable subject.

[BennyFang]

You may already be gone SJ, but I'll ask anyway......any rules you play by regarding middling?

[lakerboy]

LB, I personally don't think I overthink plays or use too many stats. I think at this point in my gambling career I know which stats are most important and should be valued. Obviously, there are a ton of trends that really don't matter.

I also value line movement a ton, I will almost never go heavy on a play that the line movement doesn't look good on my play.

I think you are probably right about buying points being -EV. I think I have just gotten lucky in my life and have hit a good amount of plays by buying hooks so I do it every now and then. I do agree though that in reality it won't really make a difference a large amount of the time and may not be the smartest thing to do a lot of the time. This is a very debatable subject.

Thank you sir for answering my questions. Good feedback.

[sweetjones55]

You may already be gone SJ, but I'll ask anyway......any rules you play by regarding middling?

I don't really ever try to middle my play. In my eyes if you are up at half and you are looking good then why put money on the other side and risk losing money on your play that is on pace to be a winner? I realize middling does work for some people and I would like to hear some opinions from others on this subject as I just don't try middling very often.

[vyomguy]

Go to the front page of www.hoopsstats.com. Scroll your mouse over "NBA Teams" and click any team. Then on the next page like at the top all the way on the right and click the tab that says "By Quarter". Quarter stats are all on there.

Thanks. Are the quarter stats against the spread or SU?

[sweetjones55]

Thanks. Are the quarter stats against the spread or SU?

Straight Up.

[sweetjones55]

Have a great day guys and good luck to you on your plays. Go Blazers!

[TodaysAction]

Question #1. At what point if you're using 1% of your bankroll per wager should you either:
A. increase it to 1.5% and/or
B. decrease it to 0.5% and why?
I was taught when first starting out that if you’re going to change the amount of your unit during seasons you should only increase it once you’ve double your beginning bank roll. The other side of the equation is to decrease it when you’ve lost half your original bank roll. Both are built in safeguards to protect punters from doing some not very smart things. Nowadays, I keep the unit the same for the entire season as it makes tracking much easier and doesn’t give a false sense of security.

Question #2. When making a 2H wager, is it better to fade or follow the public for spreads AND totals? Why/why not?
In my opinion, it is better to follow the movement and wait until you get, or don’t, the number(s) you want/think that will cover. The public can drive up or down a line, depending on what you’re after one should use it to their advantage.

Question #3. During "live" wagering, when is it to the players advantage to reverse their "normal wagering pattern" and why/why not?
To set-up a successful and profit from the game no matter when the outcome.

Question #4. Which of the following gives more of an edge to the player and why:
A. 2-team parlay or
B. 3-team teaser?
If a person is going to either of them, they should opt for the 2-team parlay since it’s easier to win two games than three, but if ‘new’ people are going to do these things they should be for less than their normal amount since they burn money real quick if a person isn’t careful.

Lastly, question #5. Is it better to place your action with
A. Vegas - since it's legal there,
B. An on-line book or
C. A local.
This was sort of a trick question since each have advantages. Players should attack the soft-lines where ever they find them.

[vyomguy]

Thanks SJ for all the info .

[Dexter]

this is better then All My Children

[lyon804]

this is better then All My Children

This is hysterical i do have to admit. It's late in the NBA season, Ok? There are only 3 types of people that are around still betting... 1) The very damn good. 2) Minnions. or 3) People that make good money on there job and can afford the loses.


I said all that to say this thread is an unsolicited nuisance that comes from a "sharp" that understands "RLM"..LOL!! But clearly doesn't understand the complete ignorance in buying points.

Rule #1 to the THREAD CREATOR... Do not buy points
Rule #2 if you decide you must buy points you only by a half to buy off a hook on a favorite or to push a dog to a full point higher to cover.. you never,ever buy an extra half to ensure a win, but to save from a loss.


No need for a comeback respose. It will only make you seem more ignorant to the handfull of people that truly understand this game you call "gambling"

[sweetjones55]

This is hysterical i do have to admit. It's late in the NBA season, Ok? There are only 3 types of people that are around still betting... 1) The very damn good. 2) Minnions. or 3) People that make good money on there job and can afford the loses.


I said all that to say this thread is an unsolicited nuisance that comes from a "sharp" that understands "RLM"..LOL!! But clearly doesn't understand the complete ignorance in buying points.

Rule #1 to the THREAD CREATOR... Do not buy points
Rule #2 if you decide you must buy points you only by a half to buy off a hook on a favorite or to push a dog to a full point higher to cover.. you never,ever buy an extra half to ensure a win, but to save from a loss.


No need for a comeback respose. It will only make you seem more ignorant to the handfull of people that truly understand this game you call "gambling"

I already admitted that my buying of points every now and then is -EV, you don't have to go on a rant and bash one of the leaks in my capping. Go read 10 posts above this, I clearly say "I do agree though that in reality it won't really make a difference a large amount of the time and may not be the smartest thing to do a lot of the time. I think a lot of times I do it because I get upset that I missed the line at it's highest value. This is a leak I need to work on."

[sweetjones55]

Why don't you try and go and bash one of my picks this week? O wait, I haven't lost one game this week my bad. You keep hating and I'll keep collecting moneyyy! Go read my writeups and tell me that I am only taking teams because of RLM. I take a WHOLE lot more into consideration than RLM. O and the only game I bought the 0.5 point on this week, I won because of it LAC +10.5 they lost by 10.

[lyon804]

Why don't you try and go and bash one of my picks this week? O wait, I haven't lost one game this week my bad. You keep hating and I'll keep collecting moneyyy! O and the only game I bought the 0.5 point on this week, I won because of it LAC +10.5 they lost by 10.

I could careless about your picks or handicapping. I am not trying to bash your handicapping or picks. The biggest problem with you as I see it is you are a "young punk". You have a character flaw and need coaching or fathering. You don't have what it takes to make it in this game. It's more than some stats and some fancy lingo that you 'recently' learned.

As far as your little threads go.. I am happy for you son, but your luck could turn on a dime. You started a pick thread once and went to the shitter immediately and you went MIA for awhile.

Bottomline, your bravado is what is irratating to myself and the handful of others that actually know what's going on that you have met opposisition from.

You made a "couple" winning picks and now all of a sudden you think you have figured it out.

I am not going to keep wasting my time suffering a fool. I am just telling you to tone the shit down as it is annoying as hell coming from a "noob" themself. Learn some humility and grow up.

[kobefanatic]

I could careless about your picks or handicapping. I am not trying to bash your handicapping or picks. The biggest problem with you as I see it is you are a "young punk". You have a character flaw and need coaching or fathering. You don't have what it takes to make it in this game. It's more than some stats and some fancy lingo that you 'recently' learned.

As far as your little threads go.. I am happy for you son, but your luck could turn on a dime. You started a pick thread once and went to the shitter immediately and you went MIA for awhile.

Bottomline, your bravado is what is irratating to myself and the handful of others that actually know what's going on that you have met opposisition from.

You made a "couple" winning picks and now all of a sudden you think you have figured it out.

I am not going to keep wasting my time suffering a fool. I am just telling you to tone the shit down as it is annoying as hell coming from a "noob" themself. Learn some humility and grow up.

lyon what do you think of the battle of the oldies tomorrow? sas @ bos

[Dexter]

SJ - no reply to what happened last year? I thought the theory only holds true in football?

[sweetjones55]

SJ - no reply to what happened last year? I thought the theory only holds true in football?

Yes last year after beating Boston teams struggled. I was just making sure that he realized that fading the champs this year wasn't profitable, just trying to help out.

[sweetjones55]

As far as your little threads go.. I am happy for you son, but your luck could turn on a dime. You started a pick thread once and went to the shitter immediately and you went MIA for awhile.

I already asked you this once, when did I go MIA? I went on one 7 day break, that's it. I am in this for the long run all the way.

[lakerboy]

Yes last year after beating Boston teams struggled. I was just making sure that he realized that fading the champs this year wasn't profitable, just trying to help out.

Who is he?