Noob capping questions, ask away!

kingsr · 03-26-10, 01:15 AM

Stand Up Guy, have some points for making this site a better place.

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 01:15 AM

You didn't have to but I appreciate the points kingsr.

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Not quite- lyon is one of the sharpest guys here. He knows what he is talking about. He isnt looking for credibility - he is looking for the guy to drop off the envelope every week.

Good call on Portland tonight

Lol maybe he's just a little sauced up. Thanks

lyon804 · 03-26-10, 01:18 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

You lost all credibility right there. Everyone realizes that the situations and matchups are the most important factors. Hence why I call RLM the "icing" on the cake.

you are too funny bro.. what you are saying in terms of your "vast" knowlege i mostly agree with but it is really comical in the way you lay it out there. it's almost like you just learned it all from reading a book at gamblers anonymous and are impressed enough with yourself you must educate the "novices" are noobs however you say it.

Besides, I am not worried about building any credibility with you or anyone else here for that matter.

I have been here since day 1 of the NBA season and I remember you started a thread awhile back telling everybody how you was going to own it and it flamed out in less than 10 days and you were MIA from then on.

Now you start individual threads and have hit 3 games in a row

Takes more than that. soon you will miss a couple in a row and flame out again.

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 01:30 AM

Well first thing I said was I didn't want to come off as some "know it all pro capper" and sure enough I am getting that lable now but it's all good. One hater out of sixty replies on the thread is a great rate on SBR lol. I sound like I am reading out of a book huh? I gave 9 profitable autobets that no one will argue are not profitable that you can't read in any book. I try my best to not sound like I'm reading out of a book but this is pretty much the first time that I try and help people out and give them some of the info I have come up with after six straight years of betting NBA every night.

I did come on to SBR after being scorching hot (hit 19 out of 20 games documented over on the other site) and hit a little cold streak but I did not flame out in less than ten days and go MIA. Go to advanced search and search my user and hit show by posts. I had one 7 day stretch (2-11 to 2-18) where I didn't post plays but other than that I have been up and active and a lot of my big plays have won. I hit my college basketball game of the year last month and my total of the year this month. But please go ahead and show me where I went MIA.

lyon804 · 03-26-10, 01:37 AM

Bro, you are more important to yourself than anybody else here. I am not hating on you. That's so funny you would suggest that. You are what you are man and not nearly as important as you think. This all started by me making a wise statement about the NBA players would be in prison if it wasn't for the game and you seemed offended by that. No big deal. Will move on from that. I am proud you know so much about capping games. Not here to hate on you and sorry you feel that way. I will leave your thread now and allow you to keep on educating the forum and i will keep collecting my knowledge fees.

bryant81 · 03-26-10, 01:40 AM

When do you like to make your bets? Like how long before games? Is it good to wait as long as possible before making a decision?

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

Bro, you are more important to yourself than anybody else here. I am not hating on you. That's so funny you would suggest that. You are what you are man and not nearly as important as you think. This all started by me making a wise statement about the NBA players would be in prison if it wasn't for the game and you seemed offended by that. No big deal. Will move on from that. I am proud you know so much about capping games. Not here to hate on you and sorry you feel that way. I will leave your thread now and allow you to keep on educating the forum and i will keep collecting my knowledge fees.

Lol you are not hating but then you go and imply that I am full of myself by saying that I am not as important as I think. Get out of here. I don't think I am important and no one has to ask me any questions or take anything I say seriously or value any of the information I give out.

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by bryant81

When do you like to make your bets? Like how long before games? Is it good to wait as long as possible before making a decision?

On the games I go heavy on I always like to wait and see how the line movement looks. I obviously like to see RLM so if I do then I will go ahead and play it as soon as I see it. Sometimes it is good to wait as long as possible and sometimes it's not. A lot of times you just have to gamble and wait and see on some lines. Let's say you are think about taking the Nets. You will probably be better served to wait the line out since the public is going to fade the Nets every time. I guess the answer is it really depends. If I am fairly certain that a line is going to move against me then I will just play it as soon as I see it. You kind of just develop a feel once you start looking at line movements on a daily basis on which way the line is going to move. People new to gambling should always get insight from the veterans and great cappers on here about whether they should take a line early or wait it out. The people who are proven winners on here will lead you in the right direction, just don't be afraid to ask. It's not like it takes a long time to answer, it's either "play it now" or "wait"

kingsr · 03-26-10, 01:45 AM

No need to flame the guy for sharing his knowledge and helping novice cappers. Whether he is writing straight from a book or not is irrelevant, what's important is he is sharing his knowledge publicly and helping people. I don't see many others on here doing that, on the contrary I see HUGE egos competing as to who is the best capper!

SJ, continue what you're doing bro, its very appreciated.

Lyon, no offence man, I respect your capping skills, but let SJ do his thing in peace, he's only helping.

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 01:54 AM

To be honest I really want to be asked all the quote on quote stupid questions that new cappers have because I know how it feels to start out and not want to ask the rookie questions at the risk of making myself look like an idiot. I am not going to give out any "sage" information or a LOCK CITY SYSTEM. Every great capper on here knows just as much as I do and I am sure a lot know more. I just happen to have a decent amount of free time because of my work schedule and I'm not bothered answering simple questions.

PlatinumBerg · 03-26-10, 02:03 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

To be honest I really want to be asked all the quote on quote stupid questions that new cappers have because I know how it feels to start out and not want to ask the rookie questions at the risk of making myself look like an idiot. I am not going to give out any "sage" information or a LOCK CITY SYSTEM. Every great capper on here knows just as much as I do and I am sure a lot know more. I just happen to have a decent amount of free time because of my work schedule and I'm not bothered answering simple questions.

Good information, I especially like your explanation of RLM and your "autoplays".

refrain87 · 03-26-10, 02:03 AM

So when the lines for the games come up. What do you guys look at? Do you make a early bet to get the best numbers? Or do you watch the trends of how the line is moving and then make a bet?

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 02:18 AM

Originally posted by refrain87

So when the lines for the games come up. What do you guys look at? Do you make a early bet to get the best numbers? Or do you watch the trends of how the line is moving and then make a bet?

It all depends. If you really love the game and think you are getting a good number early then you take it but if you are a bit unsure then it's probably better to wait the line out and see. It really is a case by case situation that doesn't really have one answer to.

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 02:21 AM

Another point I want to make, try and stay away from nationally televised games. The public always puts the most money on these games since they can watch them and Vegas knows this. The lines are almost always the sharpest in the televised games. So unless Phoenix is on TNT try to stay away from it lol.

suicidekings · 03-26-10, 02:29 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Another point I want to make, try and stay away from nationally televised games. The public always puts the most money on these games since they can watch them and Vegas knows this. The lines are almost always the sharpest in the televised games. So unless Phoenix is on TNT try to stay away from it lol.

False. Lines for nationally televised games can be tricky, but will often carry a good deal of "public opinion" adjustment prior to release, wherein the current public betting darling looks like a deal too good to pass up.

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 02:34 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

False. Lines for nationally televised games can be tricky, but will often carry a good deal of "public opinion" adjustment prior to release, wherein the current public betting darling looks like a deal too good to pass up.

There may be a bit of adjustment by the public but you won't find as many lines that are WAY off as you will other games. The public can only adjust the line so much also. This is just my opinion from what I have seen on televised games. Almost all my heavy plays are on non-televised games. It just common sense to think that typically, the lines are the sharpest on televised games, as the oddsmakers and sportsbooks realize that those games will be bet the heaviest.

Maybe I should rephrase my statemet to "Try to stay away from ever betting on telelvised games as soon as the line comes out. Wait and see if the public moves the line a good amount and then make your decision."

suicidekings · 03-26-10, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Maybe I should rephrase my statemet to "Try to stay away from ever betting on telelvised games as soon as the line comes out. Wait and see if the public moves the line a good amount and then make your decision."

I agree with this statement 100%.

I haven't read the whole thing, but I like the idea of a generalized capping info thread in the forum. Props to you for taking it on.

tavinator13 · 03-26-10, 04:02 AM

Good information. How about that Portland Play for us tonight

Dexter · 03-26-10, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

You lost all credibility right there. Everyone realizes that the situations and matchups are the most important factors. Hence why I call RLM the "icing" on the cake.

lyon is easily one of the top 5 sharpest nba guys here.

Aurelius · 03-26-10, 08:56 AM

i despise fanbois but admit to having unhealthy amounts of man love for lyon... i picked up lots of gold when he spotted that shill post b4 den v san a while ago

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by tavinator13

Good information. How about that Portland Play for us tonight

.. About to find us another one for tonight.

HedBustah1 · 03-26-10, 10:07 AM

nice thread

elgreco · 03-26-10, 11:09 AM

Thanks for the education. I hope this thread continues for a long time.

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by HedBustah1

nice thread

Originally posted by elgreco

Thanks for the education. I hope this thread continues for a long time.

I appreicate the comments. Any other questions you guys got just fire away. I'll be around today.

chrislau86 · 03-26-10, 01:18 PM

How can you tell when a book is trying to trick players with their lines? Sometimes they may move a line to try to scare bettors into taking a certain team or an over/under. How can you spot these traps?

lakerboy · 03-26-10, 01:22 PM

What is the most amount of points you will lay with a road team regardless of opponent? So it doesnt matter to me if you are playing NJ just what you think is the push point?

Also what is your opinion of a -5.5 point road favorite? More to the point the actual spread of 5.5 not who is playing.

Thank You Sir. I kindly appreciate your answers.

Dexter · 03-26-10, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by chrislau86

How can you tell when a book is trying to trick players with their lines? Sometimes they may move a line to try to scare bettors into taking a certain team or an over/under. How can you spot these traps?

curious to hear an answer to this.....if anything, this may happen more on big tv games, or on nights when there is a limited schedule...

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by chrislau86

How can you tell when a book is trying to trick players with their lines? Sometimes they may move a line to try to scare bettors into taking a certain team or an over/under. How can you spot these traps?

Ok well the easiest way to spot the tricks is when you see a line that is just "too good to be true". When you see a line that looks too good to be true and you are

, it usually is. Usually the team that looks sooo good is in a terrible situation like 4 games in 5 nights with lots of long distance travel etc. With all this being said sometimes these traps are winners but the MAJORITY of the time you will lose taking the public darling play.

I see it all the time that the public starts pounding a team somewhere upwards of 80-90% even and the line just stays flat and doesn't move. Vegas has a lopsided amount and they could try and change that by moving the line but they don't because they are trying to "trap" that 80-90% of bettors. If you take a big public favorite you really want to see the line move against you 1-2 points.
A lot of traps have revere line movement (RLM) so just look out for that also.

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

What is the most amount of points you will lay with a road team regardless of opponent? So it doesnt matter to me if you are playing NJ just what you think is the push point?

Also what is your opinion of a -5.5 point road favorite? More to the point the actual spread of 5.5 not who is playing.

Thank You Sir. I kindly appreciate your answers.

Gosh I just think about the Nets without Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, or Yi on B2B on the road for 6 games before playing the a fully loaded Cavs or Lakers squad with a lot of rest. I would probably lay up to -15.5.

LB this is a good question and I will get to you later on that one. I am guessing you are talking about an opening line of -5.5 correct? That's a pretty complex question and I'll have to think about that one for a bit. I got to go to work now, be back later in the afternoon. Usually though any time I see a line right under an even number like 5.5 or 3.5 I usually think the other team is the correct play. The public just thinks, "O great my team just has to win by three shots or two in the 3.5 case". I'll come back with a better answer later.

lyon804 · 03-26-10, 01:38 PM

What is the max amount of games I should be playing every nite? What is the max amount of my bankroll should i be putting into action every nite? Also if i was to lose very large on any given nite should i take the next nite off. If my bankroll is severly punished should i recalculate the % the next nite or do it at the end of the month?

Also, last but not least what is this RLM stuff i keep hearing about?? I see all these post concerning RLM, is this a stat or something i can find on ESPN for tonites games??

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 02:19 PM

What is the max amount of games I should be playing every nite?

If you are experienced and have been doing this while and are profitable then there is no max amount of games. If you really like every single play on the board a lot then you should play ever single game on the board. Now if you are just starting I would suggest taking 1-2 games a night. You really just want to focus on one to two games so you can research them in depth to make a more informed play.

What is the max amount of my bankroll should i be putting into action every nite?

I would say 10% of your bankroll MAX. That would be like a game of the year kind of night.

Also if i was to lose very large on any given nite should i take the next nite off.

This really depends. If you are really tilted and aren't focused on your capping the next day and just feel like a complete loser and there is no way you are going to win then you shouldn't be betting and you should maybe take a night off to cool off. If you have been doing this a while and can easily take a bad night then there is no need to take the night off. Just cap your games and play the ones you really like.

If my bankroll is severly punished should i recalculate the % the next nite or do it at the end of the month?

Yes you should recalculate the very next night. You always want to know where you stand at all times.

Also, last but not least what is this RLM stuff i keep hearing about?? I see all these post concerning RLM, is this a stat or something i can find on ESPN for tonites games??

I have answered this question quite a few times on this thread already and a few people have also chimed in on RLM. Just search back a couple of pages. No, you can't find it on ESPN lol. Covers.com line history, SBRODDS.COM and SportsInsights.com to track RLM.

freeVICK · 03-26-10, 02:22 PM

cavs or spurs?

balls2wall · 03-26-10, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Guys one thing dont look at so many different opinions. You know the this guy is on x team but wait that guy is on y team,

I agree

I eventually had to basically force myself not to alter my plays based on what X or Y capper thinks of a game. It took a long time to get to that point and I still have to stop myself from doing it from time to time especially if I am in a rut.

If you like a play then go with it unless capper X gives some good reasons that actually change your mind. Don't change your play just because he is on the other side.

sweetjones55 · 03-26-10, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by balls2wall

I agree

I eventually had to basically force myself not to alter my plays based on what X or Y capper thinks of a game. It took a long time to get to that point and I still have to stop myself from doing it from time to time especially if I am in a rut.

If you like a play then go with it unless capper X gives some good reasons that actually change your mind. Don't change your play just because he is on the other side.

I disagree a bit on this one. You don't know it all and other cappers may have info on a game that you were not aware of. Like today I didn't know Ilyasova wasn't 100% and I wouldn't have never known that had I not looked around and read other peoples opinions. You just have to try your best to not let others opinions sway you too much. If you trust yourself and your capping abilities then this isn't hard at all to do.