Noob capping questions, ask away!

[JoMoney2785]

Just read this entire thread and i wanted to thank everyone who participated. It really helped me alot and i learned ALOT of things. Looking forward to next season and becoming more involved in this site. thanks again SweetJones

[lovetogamble]

where do you get your lines from? Do you use real time odds?

[sweetjones55]

where do you get your lines from? Do you use real time odds?

This year I mainly used 5Dimes and a local. Next year I'm going to have accounts at a lot more places, pinny, the greek, bookmaker, wager chief to name a few.

[jcygts6]

how much do you have in your 5 dimes account? Since you are a winner does 5 dimes limit you?

[sweetjones55]

how much do you have in your 5 dimes account? Since you are a winner does 5 dimes limit you?

I got zero in the account lol. I had to clear it out after the season ended so I wouldn't be tempted to start making dumb plays on baseball and the world cup. I made a good amount this year but I don't talk specific numbers online.
No, 5Dimes doesn't limit me for reasons I can't mention.

[pats3peat]

your wnba advice
who are your teams you think will be the best/which ones will suck

[sweetjones55]

your wnba advice
who are your teams you think will be the best/which ones will suck

I don't think anyone will knock off Seattle this year, they got a very good team. I think Washington will keep surprising people this year. I think LA will finish with the worst record. They were bad before Candace Parker just got hurt. Tulsa really sucks also.

[brumbies]

Oh yeah Sweet what do you think about props? Like Kobe over 30 points? Seems pretty easy on paper.

[sweetjones55]

Oh yeah Sweet what do you think about props? Like Kobe over 30 points? Seems pretty easy on paper.

It's not that easy, that's what he averages so it's pretty much a coin flip. I don't really do too many props. Only one I have done as of late was D-Wade to Miami -200. I do think that you can make some coin off props though, you just have to do your homework.

[Premierr23]

It's not that easy, that's what he averages so it's pretty much a coin flip. I don't really do too many props. Only one I have done as of late was D-Wade to Miami -200. I do think that you can make some coin off props though, you just have to do your homework.

Lbj over 30 pts @ MSG

[sweetjones55]

Lbj over 30 pts @ MSG

As well as Kobe. LBJ OVER anything @ the new Brooklyn stadium as well. His debut there will be a huge game for him. D-Wade under anything @ Milwaukee and Chicago. He struggles playing in his hometowns.

[brumbies]

It's not that easy, that's what he averages so it's pretty much a coin flip. I don't really do too many props. Only one I have done as of late was D-Wade to Miami -200. I do think that you can make some coin off props though, you just have to do your homework.

Wade to Miami? What is that all about? You mean you bet on him to stay with the Heat?

[sweetjones55]

Wade to Miami? What is that all about? You mean you bet on him to stay with the Heat?

Yes

[daneault23]

Hey SJ, I've read through the entire thread and I want to say thanks because I've learned quite a bit just from reading it. I do have a question regarding trends though... You say you don't really follow trends and while I agree sometimes trends don't mean jack, what about trends that have proven to be profitable over the past 5 years?? Do you think those are solid angles to bet on solely because of that?

[jolmscheid]

Hey Sj...great thread and good to see sharp cappers in here like LakerBoy, Today's Action, etc...

Now let's say someone (like me for example ) does not have the time / skill to cap their own games...should they follow another capper on a forum such as this?

Or

Should they find a capper that has been proven for 5+ years?

[jolmscheid]

Also....if a person is following other cappers, should they stick to 1 or 2 cappers? Is it OK to follow 5 proven cappers? Should a person follow a different capper for every sport since most cappers have a STRONGER sport than others?

[jolmscheid]

And Finally...how should one "PAY Themselves" from their wagering? Should a person "pay" themselves 50% of their winnings each month and re-calculate their unit size then? Or should it be once per year??

THANK YOU SJ

[sweetjones55]

Hey SJ, I've read through the entire thread and I want to say thanks because I've learned quite a bit just from reading it. I do have a question regarding trends though... You say you don't really follow trends and while I agree sometimes trends don't mean jack, what about trends that have proven to be profitable over the past 5 years?? Do you think those are solid angles to bet on solely because of that?

I do follow trends but not trends that are easily available. Like say a trend that a team has won 5 straight vs an opponent or they've won ten games on wednesdays in a row. You won't win following those kind of trends.

[sweetjones55]

Also....if a person is following other cappers, should they stick to 1 or 2 cappers? Is it OK to follow 5 proven cappers? Should a person follow a different capper for every sport since most cappers have a STRONGER sport than others?

I don't really think I have the answer to this question. My opinion on it is that it is better to follow one good capper and try to understand the picks in order to start developing ones own style of handicapping. I think developing your own style is going to be the most profitable in the long run but again I can be wrong about that. I think there is a certain amount of talent involved and that it's tough for people to develop it to constantly beat the books.

[sweetjones55]

And Finally...how should one "PAY Themselves" from their wagering? Should a person "pay" themselves 50% of their winnings each month and re-calculate their unit size then? Or should it be once per year??

THANK YOU SJ

I am only 23 years old and started wagering since I was about 17 but have really gotten into it and doing much better about 2 years ago. So, I am still young so I don't really pay myself that often. I would rather just use the extra money for the most part to add to my bankroll and to be able to up the amount on my bets. Now when I do have a monster win or great week, I will take some of that money and go buy something for myself though. I don't want to feel like I got nothing out of a big win or week other than just being able to wager a little more on the next games.

[jolmscheid]

Ok SJ...so when do you re-calculate your unit / wager size? Do you do it daily? Weekly? Monthly? Seasonal?

Or do you wait until you hit a certain plateau?

Is it smart to do a sort of "compounding variable" where you re-calculate your unit size only if your bank has gone up? I say this because I feel that if one is to lower their unit size when their bankroll shrinks, then it will take a higher winning percentage to get back into profits since one will be betting less then...a capper can lose 8 straight games, but if one lowers their unit size then after that bad streak, then they could end up going on a 20-10 run but since one is betting smaller units, they will still be down more than they would have been if they just kept their unit size the same...

so what do you think about only increasing your unit size when the bankroll grows and if it shrinks, one keeps their unit size the same??...

[daneault23]

I do follow trends but not trends that are easily available. Like say a trend that a team has won 5 straight vs an opponent or they've won ten games on wednesdays in a row. You won't win following those kind of trends.

Yea man I know what you mean. I was talking about some more obscure ones. While I haven't backtested them myself yet, I just wrote some down and am going to backtest them when I get the time and can find where to get the info. For example, one of them is...

Play UNDER UTAH on the first half total in All games versus the 1st half line in road games
396-163 (70.84% since 1996 (+216.70 units)

I saw someone posted this somewhere awhile ago during the NBA season I'm guessing, but I haven't gone to test it yet. Do you know anywhere where I could find the lines for past 1st/2nd half lines for o/u??

I don't think this "trend" is completely accurate, because people would just simply bet the under for the Jazz every road game in the 1st half, but it could be true I guess.

[sweetjones55]

Yea man I know what you mean. I was talking about some more obscure ones. While I haven't backtested them myself yet, I just wrote some down and am going to backtest them when I get the time and can find where to get the info. For example, one of them is...

Play UNDER UTAH on the first half total in All games versus the 1st half line in road games
396-163 (70.84% since 1996 (+216.70 units)

I saw someone posted this somewhere awhile ago during the NBA season I'm guessing, but I haven't gone to test it yet. Do you know anywhere where I could find the lines for past 1st/2nd half lines for o/u??

I don't think this "trend" is completely accurate, because people would just simply bet the under for the Jazz every road game in the 1st half, but it could be true I guess.

That's an incredible trend but I would be pretty skeptical of it. I don't think the books would let any kind of 1st half play hit at a 71% rate over 14 years. I don't know where to find 1st half lines. I am positive that Utah went OVER a lot more than UNDER last year. They actually only had one game that went under out of 10 in the playoffs. I am not sure about the 1H but i would wager that taking the UNDER in 1H on the road last year with Utah wouldn't have been profitable.

Teams change too much from year to year to even follow a trend of that nature IMO. Utah's team has drastically changed this year from last year let alone since 1996.

[daneault23]

That's an incredible trend but I would be pretty skeptical of it. I don't think the books would let any kind of 1st half play hit at a 71% rate over 14 years. I don't know where to find 1st half lines. I am positive that Utah went OVER a lot more than UNDER last year. They actually only had one game that went under out of 10 in the playoffs. I am not sure about the 1H but i would wager that taking the UNDER in 1H on the road last year with Utah wouldn't have been profitable.

Teams change too much from year to year to even follow a trend of that nature IMO. Utah's team has drastically changed this year from last year let alone since 1996.

Thanks for the answer. Yeah, I was thinking that the books wouldn't let that happen for such a long amount of time either. However, there are some other trends that look like they might hold more merit. One of them I'm thinking about is:

Play UNDER - all teams where the first half total is >100 in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (76-79%) in a game inolving two good ball handling teams <=14.5 TO's/game.
09-10 Season: 68-47 (59%)
Last 5 Seasons: 397-274 (59%)

However, I'm still kinda cautious about these because they could just be data mined stats and won't hold for much longer. I'm not even completely sure they're accurate, but hey if they work, then why not play them?

[sweetjones55]

Thanks for the answer. Yeah, I was thinking that the books wouldn't let that happen for such a long amount of time either. However, there are some other trends that look like they might hold more merit. One of them I'm thinking about is:

Play UNDER - all teams where the first half total is >100 in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (76-79%) in a game inolving two good ball handling teams <=14.5 TO's/game.
09-10 Season: 68-47 (59%)
Last 5 Seasons: 397-274 (59%)



However, I'm still kinda cautious about these because they could just be data mined stats and won't hold for much longer. I'm not even completely sure they're accurate, but hey if they work, then why not play them?

If this is accurate then you definitely should play this. That's a large enough sample size IMO that's it's profitable to follow. I'd probably look at the plays that follow the filter and then play it if I like the under to begin with.

[daneault23]

If this is accurate then you definitely should play this. That's a large enough sample size IMO that's it's profitable to follow. I'd probably look at the plays that follow the filter and then play it if I like the under to begin with.

Yeah I just need to find a place where I can check these stats and I'll be good. Anyone know of any places where you can find past lines like that??

[vle909]

hey sweetjones. just wanted to congratulate you for the great season last year. I'm wondering if its possible for you to put down how many units you're betting on each game so people have a good idea what to put down each game if they they're tailing you.

[thejanitor]

favorite/recommended book for live NBA quarter by quarter plays? I'm at 5d now and I've looked at Greek and Matchbook but can't seem to get enough info about the live betting availability there. For example, earlier, if I wanted to play the Cavs for the 1st Q, what's the best book to be able to do that?

[sweetjones55]

hey sweetjones. just wanted to congratulate you for the great season last year. I'm wondering if its possible for you to put down how many units you're betting on each game so people have a good idea what to put down each game if they they're tailing you.

I bet between 1-5 units a game. There will be the rare 10 UNIT play, about 5 a year.

[sweetjones55]

favorite/recommended book for live NBA quarter by quarter plays? I'm at 5d now and I've looked at Greek and Matchbook but can't seem to get enough info about the live betting availability there. For example, earlier, if I wanted to play the Cavs for the 1st Q, what's the best book to be able to do that?

TheGreek probably gets the lines up the fastest for 1st quarters. Another good site would be Pinnacle. 5Dimes is good if you get reduced juice lines.

[thejanitor]

Thanks

Thanks for the info SJ. I'll be following your NBA thread this season.

[biggbird]

thanks to everyone who has contributed to this thread, read it all the way through the other night and it was great!

and thanks to you of course SJ.

anyway, not so much a capping question as just a general question, but where do you find is the best place to get news on who is/isnt playing, expected minutes etc?

cheers!

[sweetjones55]

thanks to everyone who has contributed to this thread, read it all the way through the other night and it was great!

and thanks to you of course SJ.

anyway, not so much a capping question as just a general question, but where do you find is the best place to get news on who is/isnt playing, expected minutes etc?

cheers!

Rotoworld.com is probably the best place to find out about injuries. I also check google news and just type the players name in and see if there's an article on his playing status.

[biggbird]

cheers!

[homedogs1211]

sweetjones, where do you find the nightly referee listings by game.