Speedy's ATS System

kherbold · 12-04-09, 06:28 PM

I'll be watching how it works

thanks

ramper62 · 12-04-09, 07:20 PM

G/L speedy...I hope it plays out positve for you. Ill be watching and cheering.

vietgamble · 12-04-09, 07:35 PM

Good luck speedy

corona · 12-04-09, 08:13 PM

can you give us any insight as to how it works.

i wouldn't mind backtesting a couple seasons this weekend if its not ridiculously complicated.

thanks.

Speedy123 · 12-04-09, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by ramper62

G/L speedy...I hope it plays out positve for you. Ill be watching and cheering.

Thanks Ramper and thanks for the SBR point on JM thread. Hope this works out for everyone. Especially those who don't like to pay that high juce.

Speedy123 · 12-04-09, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by corona

can you give us any insight as to how it works.

i wouldn't mind backtesting a couple seasons this weekend if its not ridiculously complicated.

thanks.

Corona, will try to post system tonight even if I have to retype it. Wanted to cut and past from Word. And thanks for the offer. Will be a little more difficult to back test do to the fact that the Against The Spread stats change daily and I know of no site that you can get this detail. There probably is someone who has it on an Excel Worksheet.

netinfo · 12-04-09, 10:03 PM

Speedy123,

You can always cut and paste from Word to Notepad, and then from Notepad to this forum. Anyways, I look forward to reading your system.

netinfo

Speedy123 · 12-04-09, 10:43 PM

SYSTEM EXPLANATION

A system I developed while researching JM systems. Only similarity is a three game chase. (Without buying points at high juice) This system takes advantage of the fact that trends have a tendency to continue trending in the same direction. All trends end so the system adjust for this event. All bets are Money Line at the standard -110 odds. (Example: Bet$11 to win $10) Here are the steps in selecting the teams to bet on:

Select the 3 NBA teams with the best ATS at home record and number them 1 thru 3
Select the 3 NBA teams with the best ATS road record and number them 4 thru 6
Select the 3 NBA teams with the worst ATS at home record and number them 7 thru 9
Select the 3 NBA teams with the worst ATS road record and number them 10 thru 12

I recommend you put this link in your favorites for one click access to Against The Spread stats.

The system is quite simple. Check the daily game schedule to see if any of the 6 best ATS teams are scheduled to play. (3 at home and 3 on the road) Bet the money line on any that are scheduled to play.

Check to see if any of the worst 6 teams are scheduled to play. (Again, 3 home and 3 on the road) We fade any worst team that is playing. For those not familiar with gambling terminology, fading means to bet on the opposing team. Sorry you experienced people but trying to avoid needless posts by newbie's. We were all newbie's one time. Bet the money line on any of the worst team's opponent.

As of today Dec 4/09 here are the stats. (Not adjusted for tonight's 4 games)

Best 3 ATS Home
1- SAC 8-2-0
2- ATL 7-2-0
3- SAS 7-4-0

Best 3 ATS Road
4- DAL 8-3-0
5- ORL 7-3-0
6- HOU 7-4-0

Worst 3 ATS Home
7- PHI 1-7-0
8- WAS 2-6-0
9- NJN 2-6-0

Worst 3 ATS Road
10- SAS 1-4-0
11- LAL 1-3-0
12- IND 2-5-0

Notes: You may have noticed a few anomalies such as SAS is in the best at home and the worst on the road. LAL, a strong team, is also in the worst road. There will be daily shifts in position and new replacements as time passes. I will be building on this as I know there are questions to be answered. Haven't even checked tonight's scores yet. (the 4 games i posted above) Thanks and good luck

Speedy123 · 12-04-09, 10:53 PM

"

darkenergy · 12-04-09, 11:27 PM

I don't know the system will work or not, but thanks for all the efforts, and your kindness to share it with other members

Speedy123 · 12-04-09, 11:49 PM

Won two A bets Lost two A bets. Only slight loss ($2) on bank role. Should win back the two A losses on B or C bets.

Bet 1.1 unit on TOR + 4

Bet 1.1 unit on ATL -11

Bet 1.1 unit on DAL -6

Bet 1.1 unit on UTA -8

Record:

NBA 2-2 -.2 Unit

Congrats to Indy betters who had points to cover. Glad you have a strong heart!!

Speedy123 · 12-04-09, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by darkenergy

I don't know the system will work or not, but thanks for all the efforts, and your kindness to share it with other members

And thank you too Dark Energy!

Speedy123 · 12-05-09, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by darkenergy

I don't know the system will work or not, but thanks for all the efforts, and your kindness to share it with other members

And a special Thank YOU for the SBR points. Very much appreciated!!!

Speedy123 · 12-05-09, 01:03 PM

Hi Everyone,

We had two A bet losses last night:

Atlanta lost A bet. The B bet on Atlanta will be their next home game on Dec. 9 against Chicago.

Dallas lost A bet. The B bet on Dallas will be their next road game on Dec. 11 against Miami.

There are two A games for today.

We won against Indiana last night. They remain in the worst ATS road group and are faded.

Bet on LAC today

San Antonio is in the best ATS at home group.

Bet on SAS today

Good luck and have a great day! Speedy

Speedy123 · 12-05-09, 02:07 PM

Live in Las Vegas so just ran down to casino sports book and placed todays bets.

Bet 1.1 units on LAC -2.5 (to win 1 unit)

Bet 1.1 units on SAS -3.5 (to win 1 unit)

Speedy123 · 12-05-09, 03:21 PM

Making A and B bets

I believe the system is self explinatory. When a team that belongs to a Winning ATS home or road group group loses the A bet we make a B bet on that team's next scheduled game in the proper catagory. Be sure sure to remain in the proper home or road group. This is inportant.

The Worst ATS groups are faded. Naturally the B game will be a different team than the A team. For examole, last night we faded Indiana/ Utah game betting on Utah. Utah won for us but if Utah had lost we would be playing tonights Indiana/ LA clipers game as a B bet. (Betting on LAC)

The same principle holds for the C bet. Just check the team schedule and bet on the next game that fits the criteria. Could be a ways out if the B bet calls for the teams next home game and they are starting a 6 game road trip. I will be posting all upcoming games for those not wanting to bother doing the work but if for som reason I can't post this is how it is done. GL and have a great day!

shock11 · 12-05-09, 03:29 PM

junk

gbp4 · 12-05-09, 04:04 PM

hey speedy...looks pretty interesting..ill be following to see how it plays out..thanks for your time posting and sharing your system..hopefully it can be profitable..im a local vegas guy as well..where do you make your plays?? i have a phone account with stations but also go to the m or green valley

sprn · 12-05-09, 06:15 PM

interesting idea, will follow this thread to see how it's going.bol!

corona · 12-05-09, 06:54 PM

so you're basically betting that the 3 best ats home teams won't lose 3 straight home games ats, the 3 best ats road teams won't lose 3 straight road games ats....and vice versa for the worst teams?

and it doesn't matter if the home/road games are consecutive? ie. you bet on atlanta at home, they lost, now they go on a road trip...then come back to atlanta and you continue the series with a B bet.

not sure i like it too much....just because in my opinion, such simple trends tend to come back to the 50% mean over the course of a season. you're gonna get really shitty lines for atlanta for most of the season because they've been so good at home. you're fading the lakers and spurs on the road, but both are entirely capable of covering 3 straight road games. and then you're out 8 units.

what's your backtesting look like so far? hopefully its more than just this season.

Speedy123 · 12-05-09, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by corona

so you're basically betting that the 3 best ats home teams won't lose 3 straight home games ats, the 3 best ats road teams won't lose 3 straight road games ats....and vice versa for the worst teams?

and it doesn't matter if the home/road games are consecutive? ie. you bet on atlanta at home, they lost, now they go on a road trip...then come back to atlanta and you continue the series with a B bet.

not sure i like it too much....just because in my opinion, such simple trends tend to come back to the 50% mean over the course of a season. you're gonna get really shitty lines for atlanta for most of the season because they've been so good at home. you're fading the lakers and spurs on the road, but both are entirely capable of covering 3 straight road games. and then you're out 8 units.

what's your backtesting look like so far? hopefully its more than just this season.

Corona, your points are well made. The reason I started this thread was to get other members feedback and try to develop a system that will be profitable long-term. John Morrisy's systems are also quite simple but my guess is not a lot of people are getting rich due to the outrageous juice involved.

Was discussing this with a very successful and knowledgeable gambler. (They are limited even here in Vegas) His recommendation which I will probably follow is to do away entirely with the three game chase. Make even bets on the teams that have a .67 or higher wining average. As soon as they fall below that move on to any other team that might have hit .67 or just bet on the teams that are already above that number. Would not be tracking 12 teams but only those that were wining .67. He pointed out that with this ratio they are wining at least 2 out of three games and and your bank-role would steadily grow.

I might note that this would also solve the problems you refered to with teams like SAS or LAL One or two road wins and you would no longer fade them. Anyway, my present thoughts and thank you. Do watch for modifications as I am open for improvements.

netinfo · 12-05-09, 11:04 PM

Are you looking for teams that win 2 out of 3 games against the spread, or 2 out of 3 games straight up?

netinfo

Speedy123 · 12-06-09, 01:19 AM

Won one/ lost one. Not making any money at this rate. Seriously thinking of doing some drastic modifications to this system. Tired, will sleep on it.

Bet 1.1 units on LAC -2.5 (to win 1 unit)

Bet 1.1 units on SAS -3.5 (to win 1 unit

Record: NBA 3-3 -.3 Unit

corona · 12-06-09, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by Speedy123

Corona, your points are well made. The reason I started this thread was to get other members feedback and try to develop a system that will be profitable long-term. John Morrisy's systems are also quite simple but my guess is not a lot of people are getting rich due to the outrageous juice involved.

the juice of buying 3 points causes each bet to win at a 70% or so rate long term. if you can win at that rate for the A bet, only 30% go to B bets...you win those around 70% of the time, only 30% go to C bets, you win those around 70% of the time....and you'll once find one or two C losses a season....which makes it all profitable.

Was discussing this with a very successful and knowledgeable gambler. (They are limited even here in Vegas) His recommendation which I will probably follow is to do away entirely with the three game chase. Make even bets on the teams that have a .67 or higher wining average. As soon as they fall below that move on to any other team that might have hit .67 or just bet on the teams that are already above that number. Would not be tracking 12 teams but only those that were wining .67. He pointed out that with this ratio they are wining at least 2 out of three games and and your bank-role would steadily grow.

if you're betting even money (1.1 to win 1), unless you're following a strong & consistent trend...which are hard to find season to season, you'll always be winning right around 50% of the games you play...that's just the nature of how good the books are. it doesn't matter if the team you're betting on is winning at a 67% clip or a 33% clip. ATS you're going to be breaking even.

if the team you're betting on is winning 67% of the time ATS, i really wouldn't count on it to continue. the books will adjust the lines, you'll get worse lines, the team will stop covering so much, and you'll hit around 50%.

if you're talking about playing moneylines on .67 or better teams, then you're going to end up paying absurd juice, and good teams do go on losing streaks enough to kill a chase-system profit. iirc, last year boston started the season with one of the best records of all time....and then went on a road trip around christmas and lost 7 of 9, including a 4 game losing streak.

Speedy123 · 12-06-09, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by netinfo

Are you looking for teams that win 2 out of 3 games against the spread, or 2 out of 3 games straight up?

netinfo

Netinfo, Actually I check the Against The Spread stats and bet any team that is among the top three in each catagory. If they loose then the next bet would be the B bet in that series. For example, if the team was in the Best 3 home teams ATS the B bet would be their next scheduled home game. You skip any road games. Only play B or C games on the next two scheduled home games. The same applies to best road teams. Only follow-up games would be road games. Testing results from last season look encouraging but are slow due to changing ATS stats as the season progresses.

Having said this, I may abandon the three chase idea and strictly bet same-unit bets on each game. If this selection method produces more wins than losses then a straight beting system will prove succesful without the risk associated with chasing. As your Winnings grows you gradually increase the size of your bets. Know several gamblers here in Las Vegas that use this money managment system very succesfully.

Speedy123 · 12-06-09, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by Speedy123

Netinfo, Actually I check the Against The Spread stats and bet any team that is among the top three in each catagory. If they loose then the next bet would be the B bet in that series. For example, if the team was in the Best 3 home teams ATS the B bet would be their next scheduled home game. You skip any road games. Only play B or C games on the next two scheduled home games. The same applies to best road teams. Only follow-up games would be road games. Testing results from last season look encouraging but are slow due to changing ATS stats as the season progresses.

Having said this, I may abandon the three chase idea and strictly bet same-unit bets on each game. If this selection method produces more wins than losses then a straight beting system will prove succesful without the risk associated with chasing. As your Winnings grows you gradually increase the size of your bets. Know several gamblers here in Las Vegas that use this money managment system very succesfully.

Carona, Again great insight. I am not one to argue against JM's system. I purchased it last year and even thou I don't buy the points I have made money. Have tweaked it a little. I use a Lab system when I lose a B bet. Naturally, I loose the benefit of the 70% by not buying the points. But even at -110 odds you have to keep your initial bets low enough that you are not making any serious money on a series win. Maybe I am only speaking for myself as everyone has a diefferent risk tolerance level. Case in point was the poster on the JM thread who used a starting $400 unit. By the time he got to the C bet on Pacers he was in the thousands and beyond his bet level.

I know the books have it down to a science. Everyday when I walk into these multi million dollar casinos I know who paid for them. Just trying to catch a few crumbs on the trends knowing I have to watch the daily shifts in the ATS. You are probably right on the 50-50 point but at least I won't be down at seasons end, hopefully up. Thanks and enjoyed your comments.

Speedy123 · 12-06-09, 04:19 PM

Thought I had posted today's game but must not have hit the Post Quick Reply button. Good thing I just now checked.

Staying with the system and we have SAC in the top 3 home ATS teams for today

Bet 1.1 unit to win 1 unit on SAC +1.5 -110 0dds

GL everyone

ramper62 · 12-06-09, 06:00 PM

speedy...You know it, I see it daily. The ability level they have to recovery is amazing and staying a step ahead of them is an absolute must.

G/L...keep it going.

Speedy123 · 12-07-09, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by ramper62

speedy...You know it, I see it daily. The ability level they have to recovery is amazing and staying a step ahead of them is an absolute must.

G/L...keep it going.

Thanks Ramper, couldn't have said it better. This present system may not prove worth following but will continue out of curiosity, at least for a while longer. But the great thing about this is the insights you receive from fellow members. While poring over the ATS stats yesterday I noticed a pattern that keeps reoccurring. Checked it out for this season. So far it has done great. Also, doesn't require a chase system but only -110 odds. Today I will back test it over the past several seasons before I say anymore. learned my lesson on this thread.

Speedy123 · 12-07-09, 01:42 PM

Had one bet for yesterday Dec 7 and lost it. The system as I originally laid out calls for B bets after any A bet loss. The B bet will be SAC's next home game on Dec 12 against MIN, I might add that although I will still be betting the 4 upcoming B bets I have modified my money managment system and will post the modification later today. Thanks to anyone following this thread.

Bet 1.1 unit to win 1 unit on SAC +1.5 -110 0dds

NBA Record 3-4 -1.4 units

Speedy123 · 12-07-09, 02:35 PM

Had one bet for yesterday Dec 7 and lost it. The system as I originally laid out was a three game chase system. So far there have been 3 wins and 4 losses. These 4 losses call for B bets that will cover the A game loss plus win you your betting unit.

Bet 1.1 unit to win 1 unit on SAC +1.5 -110 0dds

Speedy123 · 12-07-09, 02:49 PM

One bet today on PHI. They are in the worst 3 ATS home teams at 1-7. Fade PHI and take DEN -6.5

Bet 1.1 units on DEN to win 1 unit

Speedy123 · 12-08-09, 09:49 AM

Won yesterdays Denver game. We play Denver again today as they are still in the best ATS away team. My computer Cox cable was down most of yesterday so didn't get everything posted. Be gone most of today so will check in this evening. Good luck.

Bet 1.1 units on DEN to win 1 unit

NBA Record 4 - 4 -.4 unit (only loss is juce on 4 loosing games)

Speedy123 · 12-08-09, 09:55 AM

Dec 8/09

Bet 1.1 units on Denver to win 1 unit

NOTE: NJ a team in the worst away group plays. We would norrmally fade them but they play CHI who is also in the worst group so we skip this game.