Speedy's ATS System

[Speedy123]

A split last night. As Papermedown pointed out SAC was not a system play. The game was a push anyway.

Bet 1.1 units on DET +5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on SAC +7 to win 1 unit (Was not a system play - game was a push)

Bet 1.1 unit on PHO -2.5 to win 1 unit



NBA Record 13-13 -1.3 units

[Speedy123]

There are 6 games for today. ATL and SAC are best home. DAL and HOU are best away. SAS is worst away and faded. That leaves LAL/MIL game. MIL is now in a 4 way tie at .67 for 3rd place in best at home. LAL is in worst away at 1/5. Despite the filter I had on LAL earlier I will be betting on MIL today.

My bets for today Dec. 16

Bet 1.1 units on ATL -9.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on Dal -2 to win 1 unit

Bet1.1 units on HOU +8.5 to win 1 unit

Bet i.i units on MIL +6 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 unit on SAC -3 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on GSW +5.5 to win 1 unit

[Hybris]

Isnt it vegas goal to make all teams have a .500 ATS at the end of the season? Sorry I´m not into the American sports, mostly play the soccer and icehockey. Maybe good to fade those high % ATS winners? Maybe thats gamblers fallacy

[billdo75]

There are 6 games for today. ATL and SAC are best home. DAL and HOU are best away. SAS is worst away and faded. That leaves LAL/MIL game. MIL is now in a 4 way tie at .67 for 3rd place in best at home. LAL is in worst away at 1/5. Despite the filter I had on LAL earlier I will be betting on MIL today.

My bets for today Dec. 16

Bet 1.1 units on ATL -9.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on Dal -2 to win 1 unit

Bet1.1 units on HOU +8.5 to win 1 unit

Bet i.i units on MIL +6 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 unit on SAC -3 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on GSW +5.5 to win 1 unit

Just wanted to chime in and say that I've also been tracking the system as originally presented in a 3-game chase. I've been tracking it "the JM way" using the A-B-C progression and buying 2 points (Bookmaker) at -150. Buying the points has turned several pushes into wins and reversed 1 loss. Results since this thread was started:

A Plays - 11 wins, 13 losses, -8.5 units
B Plays - 9 wins, 1 loss, +18.75 units

The 1 loss on the B play was Denver as a Top 3 Away team (12/8 at Charlotte, 12/10 at Detroit). Still waiting for their next road game (12/18 at New Orleans) to check the C result. Also, using the scaling on the plays (1.5:1 A, 3.75:2.5 B, 9.38:6.25 C), the results so far are +10.25 units buying the points. Not buying points brings the overall record to 16-15 for +4.78 units.

Anyways, back to your regularly scheduled programming. Again, I just wanted to throw this info out there. Best of luck and keep it going!

[Speedy123]

Won 3, lost 2 and pushed 1. Not getting ahead but bank role still intact.

My bets for today Dec. 16

Bet 1.1 units on ATL -9.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on Dal -2 to win 1 unit

Bet1.1 units on HOU +8.5 to win 1 unit

Bet i.i units on MIL +6 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 unit on SAC -3 to win 1 unit (Push)

Bet 1.1 units on GSW +5.5 to win 1 unit

NBA record 16-15 -.5 unit

[Speedy123]

Just wanted to chime in and say that I've also been tracking the system as originally presented in a 3-game chase. I've been tracking it "the JM way" using the A-B-C progression and buying 2 points (Bookmaker) at -150. Buying the points has turned several pushes into wins and reversed 1 loss. Results since this thread was started:

A Plays - 11 wins, 13 losses, -8.5 units
B Plays - 9 wins, 1 loss, +18.75 units

The 1 loss on the B play was Denver as a Top 3 Away team (12/8 at Charlotte, 12/10 at Detroit). Still waiting for their next road game (12/18 at New Orleans) to check the C result. Also, using the scaling on the plays (1.5:1 A, 3.75:2.5 B, 9.38:6.25 C), the results so far are +10.25 units buying the points. Not buying points brings the overall record to 16-15 for +4.78 units.

Anyways, back to your regularly scheduled programming. Again, I just wanted to throw this info out there. Best of luck and keep it going!

Thanks Bildo. Sounds like you have a good money managment system. You have two more winners tonight with my push on SAC and loss on HOU against the spread by 1.5 points. So tonight you would have 5 winners with one loss. Congrats!! I can't buy points here in Las Vegas. Might consider subscribing to an online casino but someone told me they are all closed to Nevada residents. Anyone have any feedback on that?

[Speedy123]

Just one game today. CHI is in both home and away worst teams so they are faded, bet NYN.

My bet for Dec 12:

Bet 1.1 units on NYN +2.5 to win 1 unit

Have a great day everyone!

[LaiLai]

Cheers!!*
I'm Taking NYK Too.
Btw,
What's "BOL"

[SpreadSniper]

Cheers!!*
I'm Taking NYK Too.
Btw,
What's "BOL"

BOL = Best Of Luck....

A "Unit" is a relative unit of measurement used often in the gambling world to describe the amount of a bet being wagered on any given game - Instead of saying "I'm going to wager $100 on it" people say "1 unit". So for me, since a unit = $20, if I were to be wagering $100, I would say "5 units"

[Speedy123]

Lost yesterdays game. Hitting about 50% so may be studying a way to modify my money managment to take advantage of this fact.

Bet 1.1 units on NYN +2.5 to win 1 unit

Record: 16-16 -1.6 units

[Speedy123]

Three games for today; ATL is best at home. HOU is best away and WAS is worst away and is faded.

My bets for Dec 18:

Bet 1.1 units on ATL -5.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on HOU +5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on GSW -3 to win 1 unit

[Speedy123]

Two wins, one loss. for yesterday.

My bets for Dec 18:

Bet 1.1 units on ATL -5.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on HOU +5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on GSW -3 to win 1 unit

[Speedy123]

There are 3 teams I will be betting on for today. PHI is in worst at home and is faded. ATL is in best away and is bet. MIL is in best at home and is bet. I am skiping LAL/NJN game. LAL is clearly the worst team away ATS at 1/6 but they are the best overall team at 20/4 and NYJ is clearly the worst team overall. I expect a blowout. Anyway am filtering them out.

My bets for Dec 19:

Bet 1.1 units on LAC +3 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on ATL -4.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on MIL -6.5 to win one unit


Forgot to include my NBA record in above post. It is:

NBA Record 18-17 -.7 unit

[Speedy123]

Two losses and 1 win yesterday. It is staying at the 50% win/loss ratio. Think I will abandon this thread and explore some of the other threads for a good capper with a winning edge. Seems to be little interest here. Thanks to those who have followed.

My bets for Dec 19:

Bet 1.1 units on LAC +3 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on ATL -4.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on MIL -6.5 to win one unit

My NBA Record exploring this system idea is 19-19 with a 1.9 units loss due to the -110 odds.-

[Speedy123]

Decided not to abandon ship after studying and modifying my money managment system. I tested the results so far using a 2 chase system. My second bet, or B bet would be for 2.31 to win the 1 unit series bet. (based on -110 odds) So far from my starting date on Dec 5 there would be 30 A and B Wins for 30 Units. There was 4 B losses for a total loss of 13.64 Units (Must include the 4 A losses too) There are 5 pending B bets still undecided. Using this system one is ahead 16.36 units. (not counting yesterdays two wins)

Yesterday there would have been two winners, DAL and MEM but I am not counting them as I did not post them. There is one game for today that I will make as an A Bet.

[Speedy123]

After rechecking there are no games for today. LAL is in the worst away group but I have filtered them out as previously explained. There will be a B Bet for tomorrow. (have not checked for any A bets.)

[Speedy123]

In my revamped money managment system there are three A Bets and one B bet for today. WAS and CHI are in their respective worst groups and are faded. ATL is in Best away and is a B bet because they lost their last away game. MEM is in the best home and is an A bet.

My bets for Dec 22:

Bet 1.1 units on PHI +2 to win 1 unit (A Bet)

Bet 1.1 units on NYN -6 to win 1 unit (A Bet)

Bet 1.1 units on MEM -7.5 to win 1 unirt (A Bet)

Bet 2.31 units on ATL -8.5 to win 2.1 units (B Bet)

NOTE:
My NBA Record to date using flat bets of 1.1 units to win 1 unit is 19-19 -1.9 units.

I will go ahead and build on this record using this modified A/B two chase system. Expect the plus units to add up. Great day everyone.

[ramper62]

hey speedy...hope you can get this filtered...I think playing it the way you did, best/worst ATS, really validated the fact that the boys are working hard to achieve 50/50 ATS...

G/L and all the best.../r

[williams22]

Hey Speedy, any chance you could join us in the NBA Best Bets thread and post your favorite pick each day?

[Speedy123]

Three wins and 1 loss for a 3 unit gane. PHI loss was a WAS fade so our B bet will be to fade WAS again on their Wednesday game.

My bets for Dec 22:

Bet 1.1 units on PHI +2 to win 1 unit (A Bet)

Bet 1.1 units on NYN -6 to win 1 unit (A Bet)

Bet 1.1 units on MEM -7.5 to win 1 unirt (A Bet)

Bet 2.31 units on ATL -8.5 to win 2.1 units (B Bet)

Record to date: 22-20 +1.1 Units

[Speedy123]

hey speedy...hope you can get this filtered...I think playing it the way you did, best/worst ATS, really validated the fact that the boys are working hard to achieve 50/50 ATS...

G/L and all the best.../r

Thanks Ramper, I think it is a reasonable assumption that the oddsmakers want to keep the ATS spread as close to 50/50 as possible. They are in it to make a living and seem to be doing a good job. This is clearly indicated when you walk into any of these expensive sports books here in Las Vegas.

I do think there is a good chance to grind out units if one follows a disciplined money managment system even with a 50/50 wining rate. Will follow this with this 2 game chase. Will be interesting to see results.

[Speedy123]

Hey Speedy, any chance you could join us in the NBA Best Bets thread and post your favorite pick each day?

Thanks Williams. The trouble with this system is I have no favorite daily pick. I let the against-the-spread stats decide who to bet on. Take the top 3 best at home and top 3 best on the road. Also do this with the worst 3 ATS home and away so at any tim there are 12 canadates that could fit the criteria. Sometimes more if several teams are tied. For example, today there was 4 games. Tomorrow will be about the same. If I had a favorit would be happy to post it. Good luck.

[bodio]

IMO this is the same as picking ANY 12 teams with any records and just playing them throughout the season. You'll end up at 50/50 that way no matter what (or close to it). It has nothing to do with best home record, worst away record, etc...

Good luck but this is a type of a system the bookies love!

[Speedy123]

IMO this is the same as picking ANY 12 teams with any records and just playing them throughout the season. You'll end up at 50/50 that way no matter what (or close to it). It has nothing to do with best home record, worst away record, etc...

Good luck but this is a type of a system the bookies love!

Bodio, you may be right but I have been around gambling for so many years that it is impossible to ignore trends.. Good teams have a tendency to remain good and bad teams likewise tend to remain bad. All trends end so the system is structured so that as the daily ATS stats change teams drop out of their respective groups and are replaced with the next hot or cold team. With my money management, even if the season ends at 50/50 I will be up units or in a worst case scenario will be flat....not much there for the bookies.

Looking for some improvement over the JM system. I follow the JM System with the exception I do not buy points at the ridiculous odds so am not facing an astronomical loss to my BR when the series goes to a C bet. Might add I am doing ok without buying points but this system offers more betting opportunities at a grately reduced risk. Thanks and good luck to you too.

[Speedy123]

Four A bets and one B bet for today. HOU and ATL are in best away, SAC is in best at home. There are two fades, NJN is worst at home and is faded. Until yesterday's game WAS was tied in worst at home but we have a follow thru B bet so we fade WAS.

My plays for Dec 23

Bet 1.1 units on HOU + 8.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on MIN + 4 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on ATL +4.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on SAC +6 to win 1 unit

Bet 2.31 units on MIL -7.5 to win 2.1 units

[Speedy123]

Not a good night!

My plays for Dec 23

Bet 1.1 units on HOU + 8.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on MIN + 4 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on ATL +4.5 to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on SAC +6 to win 1 unit

Bet 2.31 units on MIL -7.5 to win 2.1 units



NBA Record to Date: 23-24 -3.51 Units

[Speedy123]

Two A bets and 3 B bets for today. Hope to recapture some of the units lost on the 23rd.

My bets for Dec 26:

Bet 2.31 units on ATL to win 2.1 units

Bet 2.31 units on HOU to win 2.1 units

Bet 2.31 units on SAC to win 2.1 units

Bet 1.1 units on MIL to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on UTA to win 1 unit

Note: HUS and NJN call for B bets since they both lost in their respective games on the 23rd but since they play each other today the B bet for the NJN fade will have to wait until the next qualified fade for NYN.


NBA Record to Date: 23-24 -3.51 units

[Speedy123]

Not doing good. This was an experment and I do not see much future to this system. To paraphrase Einstein, "The mark of insanity is to continue doing something that does not work."

My bets for Dec 26:

Bet 2.31 units on ATL to win 2.1 units

Bet 2.31 units on HOU to win 2.1 units

Bet 2.31 units on SAC to win 2.1 units

Bet 1.1 units on MIL to win 1 unit

Bet 1.1 units on UTA to win 1 unit

Record for this system. 25-27 -6.13 Units