Keel's NBA Parlay System

nelsonrc24 · 02-01-15, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by bigtymer56

While I personally do enjoy this system...like most betting systems (esp. chases) do it long enough and you'll eventually hit that really bad run that bankrupts you.

For example, before we were at the point where we were down 20 units and betting around 1 unit a parlay. Continuning to increase the bets with each additional loss, probably wouldve left us with only 20-25 more attempts until we hit the 50 unit bankroll limit.

While losing 50 or even 100 attempts in a row might seem like alot, when your trying to win 6 games in row, its actually not out of the ordinary.

I thought of that. But for this kind of chase, if youre down to 0, you have to reload your bank!
If you fail 100 times, dont forget many of those bets will be B and C and on those you dont lose any money.
Probability of hitting 6 in a row is 1.6%. However, this isnt the real probability, since you have the option to choose your picks and even wait a day or two if you dont find anything interesting. Id put it at about 5%
The MAJOR problem with this system would be if youre kinda greedy. You have to adjust the amount of the 1st bet to your bankroll and consider the option of reloading AND NOT FORGET that you will hit at a rate of about 5%.

keel44 · 02-01-15, 03:54 PM

That extreme bad run is a possibility, but you must consider the time it would take. It could take you most of a sport's season. I say if you can't get on a little bit of a good run by that time, you will lose your money anyway and you shouldn't be gambling. Handicappers go through hot and cold spells. You don't need to be that hot to succeed with this. Nelsonrc24 brings up a good point, you could actually pick and choose the 6 in a row you need and after you get the 1st two right, you can't lose anymore money.

Besides, there are aggressive ways to play and conservative ways to play. Who says you can't set a loss limit of say 5 units. Then reset, going for 10 units, you kind of grind it out. There are lots of variations on my theme. I am ice cold right now, but I am due to heat up at some point. Now is a good time to start following.

keel44 · 02-01-15, 03:56 PM

February 1

no plays

-4.20 for this run

0.46 bet amount going forward

keel44 · 02-02-15, 11:49 AM

February 2

Parlay 17-A: T-Wolves +12.5 with T-Wolves UNDER 206 (0.46 to win 1.15)

nelsonrc24 · 02-02-15, 12:06 PM

Ive been thinking of ways to improve this method and i might have figured something. What if the A bet you make is only 1 pick? This would mean you win more 1st A bets and therefore less money lost until you achieve the final stage. Im not sure of this yet, but after i finish my exams (2 more weeks), i'll do the math to see if it really works.
Please share your thoughts on this theory.

keel44 · 02-03-15, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by nelsonrc24

Ive been thinking of ways to improve this method and i might have figured something. What if the A bet you make is only 1 pick? This would mean you win more 1st A bets and therefore less money lost until you achieve the final stage. Im not sure of this yet, but after i finish my exams (2 more weeks), i'll do the math to see if it really works.
Please share your thoughts on this theory.

O.K. Lets show the math assuming -110 odds

Risk 1 to win 0.91
Risk 0.91 to win 2.275 (2 team parlay @ +250 min)
Risk 3.185 to win 7.96 (2 team parlay @ +250 min)
11.145 total units profit
Then you chase a 11.145 to 1 scenario

It all depends how quickly you want a resolution. My 30.63 to 1 scenario allows a much longer drawn out chase, but I will lose more "A" bets. I have toyed around with many different variations. For me, I like how I have the 3 sports setup. I expect between 80-120 units in a calender year fairly safely.

keel44 · 02-03-15, 12:56 AM

February 2

Parlay 17-A: T-Wolves +12.5 with T-Wolves UNDER 206 (0.46 to win 1.15)

Alright maybe I'll get hot.

keel44 · 02-03-15, 01:17 PM

February 3

Parlay 17-B: Pistons -2.5 with Pistons OVER 184.5 (1.15 to win 2.99)

nelsonrc24 · 02-03-15, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by keel44

O.K. Lets show the math assuming -110 odds

Risk 1 to win 0.91
Risk 0.91 to win 2.275 (2 team parlay @ +250 min)
Risk 3.185 to win 7.96 (2 team parlay @ +250 min)
11.145 total units profit
Then you chase a 11.145 to 1 scenario

It all depends how quickly you want a resolution. My 30.63 to 1 scenario allows a much longer drawn out chase, but I will lose more "A" bets. I have toyed around with many different variations. For me, I like how I have the 3 sports setup. I expect between 80-120 units in a calender year fairly safely.

I think youll lose way way less money until you win, with my variation of your system. Think. Not sure yet. Ill try to prove it, or not, later.
80-120 units only on the NBA?!

keel44 · 02-03-15, 11:31 PM

I hope to get at least 80 units profit for a whole calendar year in MLB, NFL, NBA combined.

keel44 · 02-03-15, 11:32 PM

February 3

Parlay 17-B: Pistons -2.5 with Pistons OVER 184.5 (1.15 to win 2.99)

Nice win

fitguy67 · 02-04-15, 12:50 AM

nelsonrc24 · 02-04-15, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by keel44

February 3

Parlay 17-B: Pistons -2.5 with Pistons OVER 184.5 (1.15 to win 2.99)

Nice win

Keep it rolling!

keel44 · 02-04-15, 12:05 PM

February 4

Parlay 17-C: T-Wolves -1.5 with Pistons +3.5 (4.14 to win 10.35)

* bought a half a point on the T-Wolves

nelsonrc24 · 02-05-15, 03:20 AM

Damn!! So close! Tough loss

keel44 · 02-05-15, 11:36 AM

February 4

Parlay 17-C: T-Wolves -1.5 with Pistons +3.5 (4.14 to win 10.35)

Both games lost by a combined 3 points. This is a tough loss, but patience is key. At least, I am no worse off than I was 3 days ago. We repeat the risk amount of 0.46 unit. Hey, maybe we could have another "C" bet on Saturday.

keel44 · 02-05-15, 11:47 AM

February 5

Parlay 18-A: Wizards -1.5 with Suns UNDER 211.5 (0.46 to win 1.20)

keel44 · 02-06-15, 12:27 AM

February 5

Parlay 18-A: Wizards -1.5 with Suns UNDER 211.5 (0.46 to win 1.20)

keel44 · 02-06-15, 06:16 PM

February 6

Parlay 19-A: Nets -6.5 with Pistons -6.5 (0.48 to win 1.25)
Parlay 20-A: Spurs -12.5 with Clippers -1 (0.48 to win 1.25)

keel44 · 02-06-15, 09:41 PM

February 6

Parlay 19-A: Nets -6.5 with Pistons -6.5 (0.48 to win 1.25)
Parlay 20-A: Spurs -12.5 with Clippers -1 (0.48 to win 1.25)

-5.62 units on this run......patience will be a virtue

keel44 · 02-07-15, 01:04 PM

February 7

Parlay 21-A: Nets +6.5 with Nets UNDER 193 (0.51 to win 1.33)

keel44 · 02-07-15, 11:21 PM

February 7

Parlay 21-A: Nets +6.5 with Nets UNDER 193 (0.51 to win 1.33)

At least it went under

keel44 · 02-08-15, 12:09 PM

February 8

Parlay 22-A: Thunder UNDER 206.5 with Cavs UNDER 196 (0.52 to win 1.35)
Parlay 23-A: Cavs UNDER 198 with Pistons OVER 202.5 (0.53 to win 1.38)

keel44 · 02-08-15, 02:13 PM

Looks like that Clipper game is a loser....

keel44 · 02-08-15, 06:06 PM

February 8

Parlay 22-A: Thunder UNDER 206.5 with Cavs UNDER 196 (0.52 to win 1.35)
Parlay 23-A: Cavs UNDER 198 with Pistons OVER 202.5 (0.53 to win 1.38)

Time for a slight change of thinking...

0.56 risk amount going forward

keel44 · 02-09-15, 12:27 PM

February 9

Parlay 24-A: Magic +9.5 with Magic UNDER 196 (0.56 to win 1.46)
Parlay 25-A: Nets +5.5 with Knicks +5.5 (0.56 to win 1.40)

* bought a half a point on the Nets

nelsonrc24 · 02-09-15, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by keel44

O.K. Lets show the math assuming -110 odds

Risk 1 to win 0.91
Risk 0.91 to win 2.275 (2 team parlay @ +250 min)
Risk 3.185 to win 7.96 (2 team parlay @ +250 min)
11.145 total units profit
Then you chase a 11.145 to 1 scenario

It all depends how quickly you want a resolution. My 30.63 to 1 scenario allows a much longer drawn out chase, but I will lose more "A" bets. I have toyed around with many different variations. For me, I like how I have the 3 sports setup. I expect between 80-120 units in a calender year fairly safely.

If you hit at a 56% rate on single picks, it means your chance of hitting all 3 parlays in a row are 3.1%. It means you hit 1, every 32. So you will lose 31.
Will only get through of parlay A 31.36% of times.
Of all those 31 losses, 21 will be on parlay A.
If you start with 1 unit, you lose nearly 30 units until win 30.63.
If you start with 0.33 units (to win 10.11), you will lose about 10 units until you profit 10.11

With the method i suggested:
Also considering 56% success rate on single picks, i will reach my goal on a 5.5% rate. It means i win 1 every 18. So i lose 17 until i win.
But "parlay" A is only a single bet, which means i will lose only 44% on A bets. 44% of 17 is 7.5. Lets make it 8. I lose 8 A bets until i reach my goal, 11.15
If i start with one unit i lose about 11 units.

For a less deeper bankroll, you win a lot faster on the second scenario.

keel44 · 02-10-15, 12:31 AM

February 9

Parlay 24-A: Magic +9.5 with Magic UNDER 196 (0.56 to win 1.46)
Parlay 25-A: Nets +5.5 with Knicks +5.5 (0.56 to win 1.40)

I really suck right now

keel44 · 02-10-15, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by nelsonrc24

If you hit at a 56% rate on single picks, it means your chance of hitting all 3 parlays in a row are 3.1%. It means you hit 1, every 32. So you will lose 31.
Will only get through of parlay A 31.36% of times.
Of all those 31 losses, 21 will be on parlay A.
If you start with 1 unit, you lose nearly 30 units until win 30.63.
If you start with 0.33 units (to win 10.11), you will lose about 10 units until you profit 10.11

With the method i suggested:
Also considering 56% success rate on single picks, i will reach my goal on a 5.5% rate. It means i win 1 every 18. So i lose 17 until i win.
But "parlay" A is only a single bet, which means i will lose only 44% on A bets. 44% of 17 is 7.5. Lets make it 8. I lose 8 A bets until i reach my goal, 11.15
If i start with one unit i lose about 11 units.

For a less deeper bankroll, you win a lot faster on the second scenario.

I am not trying to shoot anything down, but suppose you don't/can't hit picks at a 56% clip? If I was confident in me doing that, I would just flat bet.

This strategy is about catching fire. I know I am not that great as a handicapper. I would say I am a 51-52% bettor on -110 odds. Most people are. It is not the overall straight betting percentage I'm looking for or getting rich quick. It is about totally maximizing my hot streaks as short as they are and how infrequent they are.

The method you suggest is fine. I have no problem with it. Right now I am in the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" mode.

keel44 · 02-10-15, 12:34 PM

February 10

Parlay 26-A: Suns -1.5 with Bulls UNDER 197.5 (0.59 to win 1.53)

keel44 · 02-11-15, 12:37 AM

February 10

Parlay 26-A: Suns -1.5 with Bulls UNDER 197.5 (0.59 to win 1.53)

keel44 · 02-11-15, 11:46 AM

February 11

Parlay 27-A: Clippers -3.5 with Bucks UNDER 195.5 (0.62 to win 1.55)
Parlay 28-A: Thunder -5.5 with Jazz UNDER 196.5 (0.61 to win 1.59)

* bought a half a point on the Clippers

keel44 · 02-11-15, 11:56 PM

February 11

Parlay 27-A: Clippers -3.5 with Bucks UNDER 195.5 (0.62 to win 1.55)
Parlay 28-A: Thunder -5.5 with Jazz UNDER 196.5 (0.61 to win 1.59)

Hey, I gotta win

keel44 · 02-12-15, 11:39 AM

February 12-17

no plays

9-27 -7.92 units on this run

1 "B" bet pending

keel44 · 02-19-15, 12:03 PM

February 19

No plays