NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[Mako-SBR]

An interesting one I came across yesterday. No games fit this today but I like the underlying theory behind it... that b2b on the road maybe aren't so important early in the season. (Or at least, the books put more emphasis on it than it really is)

AD and p:AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4

32-17 (1.31, 65.3%)
37-12-0 (3.71, 75.5%)	avg line: 2.4

Love this one Ronald, a lot of ways to play with it as a base, from division/no-division to opponent previous wins/losses as a fave/dog, etc.

The January errata you were seeing is mostly 2011, which was a strike/lockout-shortened season, which actually proves your basis for the query even more.

Nice work!

[SportsMind]

No plays tonight, but this is one to watch out for. You can also consider op:ADW and it looks better albeit a smaller sample size. Pretty self explanatory.

62-59 (1.68, 51.2%) 44-76-1 (-2.72, 36.7%) avg line: -4.4 79-40-2 (4.10, 66.4%) avg total: 194.0

[Ronald S.]

Love this one Ronald, a lot of ways to play with it as a base, from division/no-division to opponent previous wins/losses as a fave/dog, etc.

The January errata you were seeing is mostly 2011, which was a strike/lockout-shortened season, which actually proves your basis for the query even more.

Nice work!

Thanks! And yes I'd forgotten about that strike... makes sense now!

[Ronald S.]

Hi Hyahya, when I put this into the SDQL query it doesn't show any active games today...

It's probably because of the smilies. Everywhere you see , you have to manually type in ": p" without space and quotes. So it should look like this without the space between : and p

A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and op: points>100 and opp: points>100 and oppp: points>100

[Ronald S.]

Bulls

Unreal last three years.

HD and p:AW and points < 105 and 2011<=season and o:rest<2

Unreal is right... and nailed it tonight!

[Mako-SBR]

Thanks! And yes I'd forgotten about that strike... makes sense now!

Winner, Toronto! Nice one Ronald.

[FortySix]

Very interesting query for the under in Spurs @ Rockets tomorrow..

HF and p:AW and points>107 and op:HW and opoints<95 and rest<2

When you had the total of 201 to it, it has a 0-4 under record

[FlyinAir]

I like these more though Forty Six, ontop of the trends I could find giving the OVER credit.

-team=Spurs and p:HW and margin<4.5 and A and opoints>102
-team=Spurs and p:HW and margin<4.5 and A and o:team=Rockets

[JMon]

It's probably because of the smilies. Everywhere you see , you have to manually type in ": p" without space and quotes. So it should look like this without the space between : and p

A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and op: points>100 and opp: points>100 and oppp: points>100

Guys there is a way to avoid smilies when posting. Please consider my post #1276 on page 37. Doing this will keep the thread clean going forward. Note...one may have to click 'edit' twice!

[Consigliere]

tA(FTA/FGA, N=3) > 0.35 and oA(FTA/FGA,N=3)<0.2 and playoffs = 0 and AF and season>2000 This is a trend I put together that starts by picking out the away favourites that is getting to the line an a lot (as a ratio of FTA to FGA) in there last few games against the home team that is not. This looks to be a really solid OVER play with Z score above 3, has a good margin against the total but sample size only about 60 . The angle here is an inside or driving oriented team vs a perimeter oriented team. The key to the over is that one of the teams is scoring a bunch with the clock stopped and the other team is going to have to chuck it up a lot to compete, likely with a lot of 3s which pumps the score up a bit more too. I think the fact that this is an AF as well helps because there is a quality of team differential and so there is likely to be a scenario at the end of the game where there are lots of FTs and 3s which bumps up the final 2-3 minutes of scoring.

[nash13]

H and total < 190 and rest < 3 and o:rest = 0 and season > 2011 and conference = o:conference

Logic behind this is, that the missing rest for the opp leads to bad offensive production.

[Consigliere]

H and total < 190 and rest < 3 and o:rest = 0 and season > 2011 and conference = o:conference

Logic behind this is, that the missing rest for the opp leads to bad offensive production.

This is showing Hornets in Western Conference though? Some bad data in the database

[nash13]

This is showing Hornets in Western Conference though? Some bad data in the database

It has been addressed via the google groups forum

[hyahya]

H and total>=200 and tS(ou margin<-11,N=2)=2 and game number<30

[SportsMind]

tA(FTA/FGA, N=3) > 0.35 and oA(FTA/FGA,N=3)<0.2 and playoffs = 0 and AF and season>2000 This is a trend I put together that starts by picking out the away favourites that is getting to the line an a lot (as a ratio of FTA to FGA) in there last few games against the home team that is not. This looks to be a really solid OVER play with Z score above 3, has a good margin against the total but sample size only about 60 . The angle here is an inside or driving oriented team vs a perimeter oriented team. The key to the over is that one of the teams is scoring a bunch with the clock stopped and the other team is going to have to chuck it up a lot to compete, likely with a lot of 3s which pumps the score up a bit more too. I think the fact that this is an AF as well helps because there is a quality of team differential and so there is likely to be a scenario at the end of the game where there are lots of FTs and 3s which bumps up the final 2-3 minutes of scoring.

Thanks. I like the thinking quite a bit. It is also interesting that when you sort by month, the first 3 months are hitting better than the last 2.

[Mako-SBR]

H and total>=200 and tS(ou margin<-11,N=2)=2 and game number<30

Nice hyahya, like it. Play from it tonight too, get to see it in action.

[Ronald S.]

Ran some queries similar to hyahya's on the late game and got some small sample size trends favoring under and Dallas. Went small on both just for some action tonight. Didn't bother looking at the other game as pop will rest starters and always hard to predict how those go.

Here's a few of the queries

16-16 (0.59, 50.0%) 11-21-0 (-3.52, 34.4%) avg line: -4.1 13-18-1 (-2.52, 41.9%) avg total: 200.9

16-18 (-1.15, 47.1%) 11-22-1 (-3.87, 33.3%) avg line: -2.7 13-19-2 (-3.15, 40.6%) avg total: 196.1

GL all!

[hyahya]

tA(FGA)<77 and tA(rebounds)>oA(rebounds)+3 and H

[Winning oasis]

Greek to me. Is this an over play?

[pip2]

p:rebounds < po:rebounds and pW and HD

123-281 (-4.97, 30.4%)
171-222-11 (-0.36, 43.5%)	avg line: 4.6
212-186-6 (1.57, 53.3%)	avg total: 193.3

Attempt to capture teams that "underachieve" in the second half, which unfortunately didn't catch the Bucks game yesterday:

p:rebounds < po :rebounds and p : DW and HD and (tA(margin-M2)+4) < oA(margin-M2)

SU: 33-107 (-7.81, 23.6%)
ATS: 49-89-2 (-2.04, 35.5%) avg line: 5.8
O/U: 74-62-4 (0.94, 54.4%) avg total: 193.3

[FlyinAir]

Somebody - code help

A team coming off a home loss vs an opp who holds opps (avg) under 89ppg

H and p:HL and .....

[Mako-SBR]

H and total>=200 and tS(ou margin<-11,N=2)=2 and game number<30

Winner, and by a wide margin. Nice hyahya.

[SportsMind]

Somebody - code help

A team coming off a home loss vs an opp who holds opps (avg) under 89ppg

H and p:HL and .....

H and p:HL and otA(ooints) <89

It is correct as I changed it to H and p:AL and otA(ooints) <89 and the OKC/Memphis game showed up

[SportsMind]

Somebody - code help

A team coming off a home loss vs an opp who holds opps (avg) under 89ppg

H and p:HL and .....

I just realized that you might be talking about the Suns game, so trying to work that out.

A home team coming off a home loss to a team that holds opp to under 89 points.

[Coach Potato]

I'm too dumb to understand this
. R u guys in this thread doing well so far?

[dmitean]

H and total>=200 and tS(ou margin<-11,N=2)=2 and game number<30

Nice hit, thanks!

[FortySix]

Ok can someone please check this out. This cannot be true?

AD and A(W)<=0.500 and p:L and pp:L and op:L and opp:L

Further to this, it had 16 S/U winners last season and they didn't just win, but some of them were quite big wins

[Consigliere]

H and total>=200 and tS(ou margin<-11,N=2)=2 and game number<30

Winner winner. Nice one hyahya

[nash13]

I guess it is the A(W) part which is wrong.

[pip2]

Ok can someone please check this out. This cannot be true?

AD and A(W)<=0.500 and p:L and pp:L and op:L and opp:L

Further to this, it had 16 S/U winners last season and they didn't just win, but some of them were quite big wins

I don't know what A(W) does. The query comes out a lot different using WP<50, but I'm not sure if that's where you're going with this.

[pip2]

a mako query coming up again: A and p:AFL and 1<= rest<=2 and season>=2005

how it does over different sections of game numbers:
A and p:AFL and 1<= rest<=2 and season>=2005 and game number<10,20,30,40,50,60

games...........ATS
28.....18-10-0 (0.82, 64.3%)....game number < 10
60.....34-25-1 (-0.47, 57.6%)...game number < 20
102...62-39-1 (1.25, 61.4%)....game number < 30
143...85-55-3 (0.99, 60.7%)....game number < 40
202...116-79-7 (1.15, 59.5%)..game number < 50
243...139-97-7 (1.33, 58.9%)..game number < 60

[frisky]

Sorry to be a pain, but could somebody put the teamor which over/under to play, don't quite get all this

[pip2]

jmon query: H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2008<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3 and losses>0 and o:wins<7 and o:losses<9

Didn't fare well for BKN OKC game, but that game was a bit of a freak anyway -- today it offers 2 plays

[hyahya]

AF and po:P1 + po:P2 >= 55 and ppo:P1 + ppo:P2 >=55 and opo:P1 + opo:P2>=60 and season>2007

[Ronald S.]

Very small sample size but just thought it was interesting...

1-10 (-12.55, 9.1%) 2-9-0 (-5.32, 18.2%) avg line: 7.2 5-6-0 (-6.41, 45.5%) avg total: 204.8