NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[pip2]

Let me throw something out there. It's not great, but I think there is some value to be found somewhere in these start-of-the-season games. Variations of the same idea:

game number=1 and H and season>2000
SU: 137-76 (3.65, 64.3%)
ATS: 110-98-5 (0.28, 52.9%) avg line: -3.4
O/U: 104-107-2 (0.40, 49.3%) avg total: 192.2

game number=1 and H and season>2008
SU: 57-24 (5.04, 70.4%)
ATS: 47-31-3 (2.23, 60.3%) avg line: -2.8
O/U: 37-43-1 (1.35, 46.2%) avg total: 195.1

game number=1 and H and season>2000 and P:L
SU: 55-39 (1.90, 58.5%)
ATS: 51-39-4 (0.99, 56.7%) avg line: -0.9
O/U: 42-51-1 (0.31, 45.2%) avg total: 193.3

game number=1 and H and season>2008 and P:L
SU: 27-14 (4.24, 65.9%)
ATS: 25-13-3 (3.79, 65.8%) avg line: -0.5
O/U: 15-26-0 (-0.78, 36.6%) avg total: 196.0

I suspect there's something better in there, but I'm not seeing it...if the sample size of the last one isn't too small for your taste, there are 9 plays for the first 3 days of this season.

[nash13]

points > 110 and pooints > 100 and rest = 0 and p:HW and AD and season >=2008

this looks good past 5 seasons.

[nash13]

pu margin > 10 and rest = 0 and p:HW and AD and season >= 2008

[Mako-SBR]

Thanks Nash and pip, good stuff.

[pip2]

p : ou margin > 10 and rest = 0 and p:HW and AD and season >= 2008

I was trying to boost the sample size some and took the AD out and put
a P :L parameter in there:
p : ou margin>10 and rest <1 and P :L and season>2008

SU: 110-249 (-5.72, 30.6%)
ATS: 140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
O/U: 185-168-6 (1.10, 52.4%)

Nice sample size but lost your great percentage.

Then playing around with it I noticed the p :HW is pretty crucial to the high percentage of your query, so I stuck that back in:

p : ou margin>10 and rest =0 and P :L and p :HW and season>2008

SU: 18-47 (-7.28, 27.7%)
ATS: 19-44-2 (-3.86, 30.2%) avg line: 3.4
O/U: 31-33-1 (-1.72, 48.4%) avg total: 198.5

Got your great percentage back but lost the sample size again!

[nash13]

I was trying to boost the sample size some and took the AD out and put
a P :L parameter in there:
p : ou margin>10 and rest <1 and P :L and season>2008

SU: 110-249 (-5.72, 30.6%)
ATS: 140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
O/U: 185-168-6 (1.10, 52.4%)

Nice sample size but lost your great percentage.

Then playing around with it I noticed the p :HW is pretty crucial to the high percentage of your query, so I stuck that back in:

p : ou margin>10 and rest =0 and P :L and p :HW and season>2008

SU: 18-47 (-7.28, 27.7%)
ATS: 19-44-2 (-3.86, 30.2%) avg line: 3.4
O/U: 31-33-1 (-1.72, 48.4%) avg total: 198.5

Got your great percentage back but lost the sample size again!

In the end it is all about risk vs profit. I would take your first one with lower stakes or mine with higher. in the end 60%+ on 350 games is very good. got to look up if it holds the trend every season. tripling the sample size doubles the profit. i think it's worth it to take yours.

PS: extreme lines lower the percentage a bit
pu margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008 and 11.5 > line > -10

[pip2]

got to look up if it holds the trend every season. tripling the sample size doubles the profit.

It seems fairly stable over the past 5 years:

78 25-50-3 (-3.20, 33.3%) season = 2009
70 28-41-1 (-1.18, 40.6%) season = 2010
72 28-43-1 (-1.81, 39.4%) season = 2011
64 30-33-1 (-0.53, 47.6%) season = 2012
75 29-45-1 (-1.76, 39.2%) season = 2013

Fairly stable the 5 years before that, but not so great percentage-wise:

74 35-37-2 (0.27, 48.6%) season = 2004
77 35-42-0 (-0.34, 45.5%) season = 2005
93 45-46-2 (0.22, 49.5%) season = 2006
87 42-42-3 (1.13, 50.0%) season = 2007
76 35-39-2 (-1.49, 47.3%) season = 2008

[pip2]

Thanks Nash and pip, good stuff.

All right Mako, let's have an awesome season!

[nash13]

What came to my attention is, that most of the trends i found for NBA are predicting value on the Away Side. No or near to 0 home team preferring trends. Or does anyone know some good ones?

[Jeaaan]

(edit: deleted)

[pip2]

This is another away-team-has-advantage, small sample size but only had one bad year out of the last 11: The away team, on a home-and-home (is that the right term for it?) and back-to-back (2nd game):

season>2003 and date-P:date<2 and A

SU: 35-34 (-1.10, 50.7%)
ATS: 45-24-0 (2.31, 65.2%) avg line: 3.4
O/U: 34-34-1 (2.03, 50.0%) avg total: 197.6

[FortySix]

Hey fellas, are you going to keep this thread going for the new season or are you going to start a new one?

[Mako-SBR]

Hey fellas, are you going to keep this thread going for the new season or are you going to start a new one?

Already answered, this one.

[FortySix]

Already answered, this one.

Thanks buddy, just saw post #1260...

[JMon]

Play under (total>202) a team winning 25% or less on the season after going under the total by 18 or more in their previous game. Check out Eastern Conference.

SDQL:

total > 202 and pu margin <= -18 and WP <= 25 and 2009 <= season

Fade a home dog of 10 or less off a road loss against an oppt coming off 10 or more blocks (tightens it up eliminating small dogs of 3.5 or less)

HD and line<=10 and p:AL and po:blocks>=10 and rest<4 and 2007<=season

[JMon]

Guys to eliminate smiley's

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[pip2]

Guys to eliminate smiley's

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Thanks for the tip and for the awesome-looking queries, jmon! (Score 1 already!)

[FortySix]

Hi fellas, trying to do an SDQL but struggling a little bit. I want to know how teams do after a home loss, then away loss and then back home as a dog (Lakers vs Clippers). I did the following

HD and p:AL and P:HL and P:margin<=-18 and rest<=0 and line<12

But for some reason it is not listing the Lakers vs Clippers on the list. Any help would be great..

[JAnthony]

Hi fellas, trying to do an SDQL but struggling a little bit. I want to know how teams do after a home loss, then away loss and then back home as a dog (Lakers vs Clippers). I did the following

HD and p:AL and P:HL and P:margin<=-18 and rest<=0 and line<12

But for some reason it is not listing the Lakers vs Clippers on the list. Any help would be great..

HD and pp:HL and p:AL and p:margin<=-18 and o:rest=0

[FortySix]

HD and pp:HL and p:AL and p:margin<=-18 and o:rest=0

Thanks JAnthony. Much appreciated. Wasn't as good as I was hoping.

[JMon]

Thanks for the tip and for the awesome-looking queries, jmon! (Score 1 already!)

thanks bud, 2-0

[FortySix]

Struggling again fellas...

Trying to find an angle for the Lakers vs Clippers game

So I did

AF and p:HW and opp:HL and op:AL and ats marging <-9

I did -9 because the line yesterday for the Clippers was -12 and they only won by 3 so that would mean -9. When I enter it in, it gives me a list but no Lakers vs Clippers match up. Help would be very appreciated..

[pip2]

Struggling again fellas...

Trying to find an angle for the Lakers vs Clippers game

So I did

AF and p:HW and opp:HL and op:AL and ats marging <-9

I did -9 because the line yesterday for the Clippers was -12 and they only won by 3 so that would mean -9. When I enter it in, it gives me a list but no Lakers vs Clippers match up. Help would be very appreciated..

Just to get it running mechanically:
AF and p:HW and opp:HL and op:AL and p:ats margin <=-9

I guess this situation doesn't happen very often so I tried "-4" instead of "-9" and
got this, which might indicate something worth dinking around with in an exploratory fashion:

SU: 22-10 (6.16, 68.8%)
ATS: 19-13-0 (0.47, 59.4%) avg line: -5.7
O/U: 17-14-1 (1.17, 54.8%) avg total: 196.4

[FortySix]

Just to get it running mechanically:
AF and p:HW and opp:HL and op:AL and p:ats margin <=-9

I guess this situation doesn't happen very often so I tried "-4" instead of "-9" and
got this, which might indicate something worth dinking around with in an exploratory fashion:

SU: 22-10 (6.16, 68.8%)
ATS: 19-13-0 (0.47, 59.4%) avg line: -5.7
O/U: 17-14-1 (1.17, 54.8%) avg total: 196.4

Thank you Pip for your quick reply.

[FortySix]

Just wanted to say a big shout out to all of you on here that contribute. You have opened my eyes to a brand new way of handicapping. Appreciate all the knowledge you guys bring to this thread and Im glad I discovered it.. Thank you again.

[pip2]

Here is one I pieced together from an idea on a different site:

losses=1 and wins=0 and o:losses=1 and o:wins=0 and game number<3 and total>190

SU: 30-30 (0.00, 50.0%)
ATS: 30-30-0 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: 0.0
O/U: 18-38-4 (-6.40, 32.1%) avg total: 197.8

If you move the total up to 200 the size gets tiny but the % goes up nicely:

SU: 9-9 (0.00, 50.0%)
ATS: 9-9-0 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: 0.0
O/U: 4-14-0 (-9.17, 22.2%) avg total: 204.1

[FortySix]

Here is one I pieced together from an idea on a different site:

losses=1 and wins=0 and o:losses=1 and o:wins=0 and game number<3 and total>190

SU: 30-30 (0.00, 50.0%)
ATS: 30-30-0 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: 0.0
O/U: 18-38-4 (-6.40, 32.1%) avg total: 197.8

If you move the total up to 200 the size gets tiny but the % goes up nicely:

SU: 9-9 (0.00, 50.0%)
ATS: 9-9-0 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: 0.0
O/U: 4-14-0 (-9.17, 22.2%) avg total: 204.1

Good find Pip but do you know why it's duplicating some of the results?

[pip2]

Good find Pip but do you know why it's duplicating some of the results?

Oh crap! I didn't put anything in there to nail the point of view down to one team in a given game..

losses=1 and wins=0 and o:losses=1 and o:wins=0 and game number < 3 and 200 < total and H


That really brings the size down to nothing! Sorry!

SU: 7-2 (7.56, 77.8%)
ATS: 7-2-0 (2.83, 77.8%) avg line: -4.7
O/U: 2-7-0 (-9.17, 22.2%) avg total: 204.1

[b1slickguy]

Good find Pip but do you know why it's duplicating some of the results?

No site specification. H or A
Good luck.

[escism]

Great work thus far fellas! I've been hanging over in the NHL situational thread and have found me way here. I'm working through a lot of the queries and went 1-1 last night. I'm still trying to collect all of them from previous posts. Keep up the good work! Loving it.

[nash13]

I'd like to find a bit more trends who are not so heavy on away teams.
One I recognized is based on this one:

p:fouls <= 14 and p:AD

min idea here is, that when a team played soft as an away underdog the game before, they are not very motivated to play for somethings. could be a sign for "tanking" etc. Maybe some of you can tweak or add some things to push the WP, number of games or Profit.

[nash13]

just out of curiosity: do some of you have any good college bb trends going on? i know the db is not deeply correct, but there may some things to work around.

[pip2]

I'd like to find a bit more trends who are not so heavy on away teams.
One I recognized is based on this one:

p:fouls <= 14 and p:AD

min idea here is, that when a team played soft as an away underdog the game before, they are not very motivated to play for somethings. could be a sign for "tanking" etc. Maybe some of you can tweak or add some things to push the WP, number of games or Profit.

Damn! That provides an awesome base to work off of. Here is the first thing I got:

H and p:fouls<=14 and p:AD and 7 > line > -10

SU: 124-132 (0.51, 48.4%)
ATS: 91-158-7 (-2.05, 36.5%) avg line: -2.6
O/U: 128-126-2 (-0.16, 50.4%) avg total: 195.6

[dmitean]

p:site=home and site=away and p:line<=-10 and line>0 and 20091131<=date and p:HL

Nice trend in Cleveland's favor tonight - proving what we basically known - teams off a loss as huge home favorites, usually come strong in the next game...

[JMon]

Here we want to play a road fav of 9 or less off a win over a division rival of 10 or more; and their oppt is off a home loss of 10 or more.

SDQL:

AF and line>=-9 and p:margin>=10 and p:division=po:division and op:HL and op:margin<=-10 and 1996<=season