NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[nash13]

Damn! That provides an awesome base to work off of. Here is the first thing I got:

H and p:fouls<=14 and p:AD and 7 > line > -10

SU: 124-132 (0.51, 48.4%)
ATS: 91-158-7 (-2.05, 36.5%) avg line: -2.6
O/U: 128-126-2 (-0.16, 50.4%) avg total: 195.6

just one more away team trend seems there is no angle to find value in home teams. awesome work. let's keep it up guys

[evangelizelee]

Nething supporting suns today?

[Mako-SBR]

just one more away team trend seems there is no angle to find value in home teams. awesome work. let's keep it up guys

That is interesting, I went just now and looked at all the queries I have that I actually play and sure enough 78% of them are on away teams.

[pip2]

Nething supporting suns today?

Would this be an excuse to bet on the suns?
WP=100 and o:WP=100 and H and p:margin>4 and op:margin < 7

SU: 7-14 (-3.67, 33.3%)
ATS: 2-18-1 (-8.57, 10.0%) avg line: -4.9
O/U: 8-13-0 (-0.93, 38.1%) avg total: 191.6

Oops I got that backwards -- it supports the Spurs...

[JMon]

Fade a home dog of 10 or less off a road loss against an oppt coming off 10 or more blocks (tightens it up eliminating small dogs of 3.5 or less)

HD and line<=10 and p:AL and po:blocks>=10 and rest<4 and 2007<=season

Active again today.

[JMon]

Possible ML play on the Nets.

SDQL

p:L and op:L and A and rest>=1 and 0<=line<=3 and P:margin>=5 and 2010<=season and 3>o:rest>0

SDQL: check out 2 days rest

A and tA(points) >= 103 and p:M2 <= -20 and 2005<=season

[escism]

Possible ML play on the Nets.

SDQL

p:L and op:L and A and rest>=1 and 0<=line<=3 and P:margin>=5 and 2010<=season and 3>o:rest>0

SDQL: check out 2 days rest

A and tA(points) >= 103 and p:M2 <= -20 and 2005<=season

Both Added! Lets win some on the Nets!

[pip2]

This is one from the archives (I believe this is from jmon post #222):

line <= -11 and pooints <= 80 and opooints >= 110

SU: 41-5 (10.13, 89.1%)
ATS: 11-34-1 (-2.93, 24.4%) avg line: -13.1
O/U: 21-24-1 (-0.55, 46.7%) avg total: 194.9

It's a nice query and I have it saved for daily checking, but this one would take some balls to go with today, because you would be betting on the Lakers with no rest away against GS. This is mitigated by a 16.5 spread, but once GS starts rolling, 16 points seems like nothing. I was thinking maybe I should try some GS queries to see how they typically do in these situations...

[pip2]

If you just plug the rest factor into the #1303 query, (line <= -11 and pooints <= 80 and opooints >= 110 and o:rest=0): you get this ATS result: ATS: 1-12-0 (-5.65, 7.7%)

[pip2]

This query somewhat negates the bet against Warriors:

p : ou margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008

SU: 110-249 (-5.72, 30.6%)
ATS: 140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%) avg line: 4.0
O/U: 185-168-6 (1.10, 52.4%) avg total: 198.4

[dmitean]

This query negates the bet against Warriors:

pu margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008

SU: 110-249 (-5.72, 30.6%)
ATS: 140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%) avg line: 4.0
O/U: 185-168-6 (1.10, 52.4%) avg total: 198.4

But looking at last year, Lakers were 2 - 0 ATS in this query as a dog...

[pip2]

On the other hand, looking at Laker results from last year vs Warriors, the Lakers came closer than 16 points in one out of the 4 games:
Oct 30, 2013 Lakers Warriors away 94-125
Nov 22, 2013 Lakers Warriors home 102-95
Dec 21, 2013 Lakers Warriors away 83-102
Apr 11, 2014 Lakers Warriors home 95-112

[JMon]

This query negates the bet against Warriors:

pu margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008

SU: 110-249 (-5.72, 30.6%)
ATS: 140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%) avg line: 4.0
O/U: 185-168-6 (1.10, 52.4%) avg total: 198.4

This a pretty good find, but as you see double digit dogs have covered 51% of the time since 2012

[JMon]

On the other hand, looking at Laker results from last year vs Warriors, the Lakers came closer than 16 points in one out of the 4 games:
Oct 30, 2013 Lakers Warriors away 94-125
Nov 22, 2013 Lakers Warriors home 102-95
Dec 21, 2013 Lakers Warriors away 83-102
Apr 11, 2014 Lakers Warriors home 95-112

I am riding LAL tonight.

[pip2]

I am riding LAL tonight.

Well you are definitely not the guy I want to disagree with, because the sdql odds on that one are going to be that I will lose both straight up and ATS, but the Warriors in Oakland, on a Saturday night, early in the season, with Curry and Thompson already in full swing because of the summer games, and Kobe showing signs of fatigue last night vs. the Clippers? I don't have the balls!

[vahlen]

Great work here guys, just stumbled upon this while looking through relevant/interesting cappers. Will go study this thing as your conversations have certainly piqued the interest.

Additionally, can you guys kindly post your picks as well? Like trend/query in play -> pick/match-up with which it takes effect? For better tracking/tips purposes hehe. Cheers!

[hyahya]

H and line>4 and total>=195 and rest<2 and p:margin>=-8 and season>=2012

Raps

[pip2]

H and line>4 and total>=195 and rest<2 and p:margin>=-8 and season>=2012

Raps

I was looking at that one too this morning. I think b1slickguy posted it in #226. I really like it except I ran it for "game number less than 19" , and it didn't seem like it was working as well:

H and line>4 and total>=195 and rest<2 and p:margin>=-8 and season>=2012 and game number < 19

ATS: 8-7-0 (-0.03, 53.3%)

So I tweaked it to look for games after number 19:

ATS: 38-64-3 (-2.70, 37.3%)

[JMon]

good catch pip

[nash13]

Great work here guys, just stumbled upon this while looking through relevant/interesting cappers. Will go study this thing as your conversations have certainly piqued the interest.

Additionally, can you guys kindly post your picks as well? Like trend/query in play -> pick/match-up with which it takes effect? For better tracking/tips purposes hehe. Cheers!

this is the hardest thing to do, esp when using queries it is important to manage them wisely. some are working all time, some are just loosing touch. so i use my own rating system for them. based on last years profit. roi, over profit and number of games, i have a 3 star rating on which i calculate my stakes.

[JMon]

Both Added! Lets win some on the Nets!

[hyahya]

p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0

[pip2]

p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0

Thanks hyahya! And belated thanks for a few other ones you have already provided before, that I have also stored away!

[pip2]

This query somewhat negates the bet against Warriors:

p : ou margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008

SU: 110-249 (-5.72, 30.6%)
ATS: 140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%) avg line: 4.0
O/U: 185-168-6 (1.10, 52.4%) avg total: 198.4

Today this query is pointing at GS vs POR...

[hyahya]

My pleasure, just trying to do my part.

Made some modifications:

p: ou margin>10 and rest <1 and season>2008 and P:L and total>200 and p:W

as always, remove the space after the colon.

[hyahya]

p:HLF and op:ADW and rest=0 and o:rest>0

[JMon]

p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0

Thanks for sharing hya, I play around with your basis a bit.

p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0 and 8>=line>-6 and wins<38 and 20>op:margin>1 and total<208

[pip2]

Thanks for sharing hya, I play around with your basis a bit.

p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0 and 8>=line>-6 and wins<38 and 20>op:margin>1 and total<208

Thanks for giving me the Nets and the Heat wins yesterday jmon -- I really needed them!

[JMon]

Thanks for giving me the Nets and the Heat wins yesterday jmon -- I really needed them!

[FortySix]

Thanks for sharing hya, I play around with your basis a bit.

p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0 and 8>=line>-6 and wins<38 and 20>op:margin>1 and total<208

Hey JMon, does the average total of 191 worry you at all with this play?

[nash13]

One of the easiest:
HF and o:rest=0 and rest > 3

O/U:83-48-5 (5.57, 63.4%) avg total: 196.8

[pip2]

Nice one coming up tomorrow courtesy of mako himself...

AD and p:AL and p:margin<=-13 and tA(points)>=100 and o:WP>=60 and o:rest>0

[FortySix]

Only a small sample size

HF and p:HLF and pp:AW and op:HDW and opp:AL

[FunkFreaker]

Nice one coming up tomorrow courtesy of mako himself...

AD and p : AL and p : margin<=-13 and tA(points)>=100 and o : WP>=60 and o : rest>0

Really enjoy the numbers here but what is the logic in this trend ? Really don't know if we can trust on that "tA(points)>=100" after only couple of games for Celts... they score 120 (home) and 90 (road).

[hyahya]

H and line > -6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season >= 2011