NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[Consigliere]

a mako query coming up again: A and p:AFL and 1<= rest<=2 and season>=2005

how it does over different sections of game numbers:
A and p:AFL and 1<= rest<=2 and season>=2005 and game number<10,20,30,40,50,60

games...........ATS
28.....18-10-0 (0.82, 64.3%)....game number < 10
60.....34-25-1 (-0.47, 57.6%)...game number < 20
102...62-39-1 (1.25, 61.4%)....game number < 30
143...85-55-3 (0.99, 60.7%)....game number < 40
202...116-79-7 (1.15, 59.5%)..game number < 50
243...139-97-7 (1.33, 58.9%)..game number < 60

What's everyone thinking on this game? Adding pp:AFL to this doesn't change the ATS much either and highlights this specifc matchup still...both teams seem to be a bit of a mess right now. Feels like a bit of a spring...eventually this team is going to pull out the ATS win but not sure...probably because I've been burned on them against Portland and Utah. Another more broad...pulls in another matchup for tonight p:margin < -15 and AF

[Consigliere]

(ats streak < -2 and ats streak > -5) and (o:ats streak > 2 and o:ats streak < 5) and playoffs = 0 and H and season>2005 bring in one for tonight....adding op:ats margin>10 and opp:ats margin>10 brings the sample way down but continues to support this trend...filtering game numbers to early season narrows it down too much for anything meaningful. Adding HF instead of just H improves win % 6%, about the same improvement in % if conference=o:conference as well. Thoughts?

[Consigliere]

tA(P4, N = 4) -10> oA(P4, N=4) and season >=2005 Fourth quarter scoring angle...teams that have recently been either killing it in the 4th or are up against a team that is awful in the 4th. Filtering for favourites of 10 or more turns it to a 50-50, 8-12 favourites for line filtering about 56%. Adding AF turns it into a loser.

[hyahya]

p:AFL and AF and rest>0 and op:AL and op:margin<-10

[hyahya]

All queries seem to be pointing to the Cavs but hate laying 5.5 on the road against a talented team that's looked awful but who will definitely give maximum effort tonight. Maybe the play is under given the high total.

[Mako-SBR]

All queries seem to be pointing to the Cavs but hate laying 5.5 on the road against a talented team that's looked awful but who will definitely give maximum effort tonight. Maybe the play is under given the high total.

What's everyone thinking on this game? Adding pp:AFL to this doesn't change the ATS much either and highlights this specifc matchup still...both teams seem to be a bit of a mess right now. Feels like a bit of a spring...eventually this team is going to pull out the ATS win but not sure...probably because I've been burned on them against Portland and Utah. Another more broad...pulls in another matchup for tonight p:margin < -15 and AF

I'm not playing it due to the reasons you both mentioned (Cavs are a mess, who knows when that turns around), and also because unless it's a query designed for early in the year I'm skipping the first 10 games before placing bets on our queries.

Of course the last time I said that was about the Boston/Dallas game, where the Celtics were down by 33 points and ended up covering a few days ago, meaning the query won. But even still I'm off of this one tonight despite this positive refinement (thanks pip):

A and p:AFL and 1 <= rest <= 2 and season >= 2010 and game number<= 8

9-4 (3.00, 69.2%)
10-3-0 (2.31, 76.9%)	avg line: -0.7
8-5-0 (1.27, 61.5%)

[Consigliere]

I was leaning to staying away as well...down to 4.5 now but still. The Nuggets trolling the Cavs on Twitter I think won't help the Dog cause but once tip-off those motivations go away I think.

[hyahya]

rest=1 and p:rest=0 and p:AW and H and op:HW and pp:rest=1 and ppp:rest=0 and o:rest=1

[Consigliere]

jmon query: H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2008<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3 and losses>0 and o:wins<7 and o:losses<9

Didn't fare well for BKN OKC game, but that game was a bit of a freak anyway -- today it offers 2 plays

Looks pretty solid here...think I will tail these 2

[Consigliere]

rest=1 and p:rest=0 and p:AW and H and op:HW and pp:rest=1 and ppp:rest=0 and o:rest=1

Small sample there...I am diehard Raptors so love the pick but I would hold off on this to find out what the frontcourt injury situation is. If Johnson and JV are out they will just get destroyed on the glass with Nene and Gortat and can't see them covering. They Raptors have also been covering against some pretty weak competition lately. Almost thinking to fade this and go small on Wizards ML if the big guys for Toronto are out.

[Ronald S.]

H and po:turnovers - p:turnovers > 8 and ppo:turnovers - pp:turnovers > 8
O/U: 29-11-0 (9.41, 72.5%) avg total: 194.7

Over worth a shot on this one?

[Mako-SBR]

jmon query: H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2008<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3 and losses>0 and o:wins<7 and o:losses<9

Didn't fare well for BKN OKC game, but that game was a bit of a freak anyway -- today it offers 2 plays

Looks pretty solid here...think I will tail these 2

That is tasty, may join both of you. Thanks JMon / pip

[hyahya]

Small sample there...I am diehard Raptors so love the pick but I would hold off on this to find out what the frontcourt injury situation is. If Johnson and JV are out they will just get destroyed on the glass with Nene and Gortat and can't see them covering. They Raptors have also been covering against some pretty weak competition lately. Almost thinking to fade this and go small on Wizards ML if the big guys for Toronto are out.

Big Raps guy myself, grew up in Montreal. On the under here given both teams will be giving max effort on rest and Wiz will make concerted effort to go to Gortat and Nene if Val and/or Amir are out. Raps have really impressed me so far with their aggressiveness off the dribble and their ability to get to the line but assuming Wiz have noticed and will try to keep them off the free throw line.

[Ronald S.]

64-31 (4.64, 67.4%) 44-49-2 (-0.23, 47.3%) avg line: -4.9 34-61-0 (-2.83, 35.8%) avg total: 192.0

This looks good for Charlotte/Atlanta Under

[SportsMind]

AF and rest=0 and po:P3 - p:P3 >10 and p:L and o:rest>0

46-18 (3.89, 71.9%) 33-30-1 (-0.59, 52.4%) avg line: -4.5 43-21-0 (5.38, 67.2%) avg total: 194.6

[Consigliere]

Big Raps guy myself, grew up in Montreal. On the under here given both teams will be giving max effort on rest and Wiz will make concerted effort to go to Gortat and Nene if Val and/or Amir are out. Raps have really impressed me so far with their aggressiveness off the dribble and their ability to get to the line but assuming Wiz have noticed and will try to keep them off the free throw line.

Kind of feeling the opposite on this. If big raps are out I think the o boards make for efficient scoring for wiz and raps have low TO and get to the line a lot and at home refs will give them more calls. Feeling like that is a recipe for an over and the trend above supports it. I can't handicap my teams though so probably a no play for me unless anyone comes up with something compelling.

[Consigliere]

64-31 (4.64, 67.4%) 44-49-2 (-0.23, 47.3%) avg line: -4.9 34-61-0 (-2.83, 35.8%) avg total: 192.0

This looks good for Charlotte/Atlanta Under

Looks intereting to me. Hawks pass like crazy so can take a lot of time to score but they do it pretty efficiently. Hornets typically stay under 100 as well and can plod a bit with Jefferson getting his touches. Think I'm on this one. If you add division =o: divison that looks nice too. I looked at this without the Hw term because I think that means nothing when evaluating totals and found some nice angles that support the under here.

I'm tailing on this...BOL to us!

[Consigliere]

Kind of feeling the opposite on this. If big raps are out I think the o boards make for efficient scoring for wiz and raps have low TO and get to the line a lot and at home refs will give them more calls. Feeling like that is a recipe for an over and the trend above supports it. I can't handicap my teams though so probably a no play for me unless anyone comes up with something compelling.

Of course last year each game went under except the triple OT game so maybe Under is the play. Think I am laying off

[JMon]

Attempt to capture teams that "underachieve" in the second half, which unfortunately didn't catch the Bucks game yesterday:

p:rebounds < po :rebounds and p : DW and HD and (tA(margin-M2)+4) < oA(margin-M2)

SU: 33-107 (-7.81, 23.6%)
ATS: 49-89-2 (-2.04, 35.5%) avg line: 5.8
O/U: 74-62-4 (0.94, 54.4%) avg total: 193.3

I like your thoughts...but if you run a line parameter..you will see the majority of this situation loses (specifically 4-5.5), thus sample greatly decreases.

[Ronald S.]

Looks intereting to me. Hawks pass like crazy so can take a lot of time to score but they do it pretty efficiently. Hornets typically stay under 100 as well and can plod a bit with Jefferson getting his touches. Think I'm on this one. If you add division =o: divison that looks nice too. I looked at this without the Hw term because I think that means nothing when evaluating totals and found some nice angles that support the under here.

Good insight. Seems my bets recently have mostly been against line movement. Just grabbed it at 194.5

[Ronald S.]

31-16 (-0.34, 66.0%) 32-15-0 (0.99, 68.1%) avg line: 1.3 29-18-0 (2.61, 61.7%) avg total: 198.1

17-8 (0.84, 68.0%) 18-7-0 (2.24, 72.0%) avg line: 1.4 15-10-0 (-0.04, 60.0%) avg total: 198.2

10-7 (3.65, 58.8%) 13-4-0 (4.82, 76.5%) avg line: 1.2 8-9-0 (-1.82, 47.1%) avg total: 197.7

Some angles on Mavs under Rick Carlisle. Looks like I'll be playing the mavs again tonight. Maybe the Over too.

EDIT: Going Under after seeing Sportsmind's query!

[FlyinAir]

MAKO, I sent you an private message

[JMon]

64-31 (4.64, 67.4%) 44-49-2 (-0.23, 47.3%) avg line: -4.9 34-61-0 (-2.83, 35.8%) avg total: 192.0

This looks good for Charlotte/Atlanta Under

Very solid Ronald....cheers!

[JMon]

AF and rest=0 and po:P3 - p:P3 >10 and p:L and o:rest>0

46-18 (3.89, 71.9%) 33-30-1 (-0.59, 52.4%) avg line: -4.5 43-21-0 (5.38, 67.2%) avg total: 194.6

Very nice SportsMind!!!!

[JMon]

H and po:turnovers - p:turnovers > 8 and ppo:turnovers - pp:turnovers > 8
O/U: 29-11-0 (9.41, 72.5%) avg total: 194.7

Over worth a shot on this one?

trending nicely..you may have caught one early- which what we want...or at least I do! Nice job!

[FlyinAir]

H and po:turnovers - p:turnovers > 8 and ppo:turnovers - pp:turnovers > 8, ADD total > 195 and total < 200

And it's undefeated.


JMON, P/M sent your way as well

[Consigliere]

H and po:turnovers - p:turnovers > 8 and ppo:turnovers - pp:turnovers > 8, ADD total > 195 and total < 200

And it's undefeated.


JMON, P/M sent your way as well

ALl these PMs....so secretive

[FlyinAir]

You'll see eventually

[JMon]

H and Average(margin@team and season)<=-6 and p:W and p:margin<5 and rest<2 and o:rest<3

Always gamble responsibly

[JMon]

In November..how do home dogs do off a close win


SDQL:

HD and p:HW and p:margin<=3 and month=11


Always gamble responsibly

[hyahya]

In November..how do home dogs do off a close win


SDQL:

HD and p:H and p:margin<=3 and month=11


Always gamble responsibly

Should be p:HW and looks real good.

[JMon]

We need some organization of this thread. Too many contributors, which is good but collectively we are failing to make a point. I have my own thoughts and I seek others to do so as well.

I am looking for an individual who may be able to collect trends through out the day...I own/run multiple business there for can't. Respond if you are will to help out.

[xtjan]

im confused how you guys know what's the play ;(

[JMon]

Should be p:HW and looks real good.

Funny thing is I pasted it that way...p:HW....hmmmm

[Consigliere]

We need some organization of this thread. Too many contributors, which is good but collectively we are failing to make a point. I have my own thoughts and I seek others to do so as well.

I am looking for an individual who may be able to collect trends through out the day...I own/run multiple business there for can't. Respond if you are will to help out.

I can help out. Lots of excel skills. Don't have all the historical trends from the thread though.