despite queries suggesting a play tonight....i'm sitting out. this team has some notorious habits of sitting key players for the sake of the playoffs and their coach could care less about a win tonight (i would think).
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Fellas, I was going thru the thread last night and there are 2 very good plays leaning towards the Spurs for this game. Are you guys jumping on Spurs today as +2 dogs?Comment -
I take that backOriginally posted by FortySixComment -
I love this one tonight fading the the public's lean on a total tonight that's moved the total only 2 points
F and p: points>105 and line <=-10 and total>214 and total<222 and season>=2012Comment -
About jumped on the spurs, but laying off tonight. GL guysComment -
congrats for those of you that jumped on the Spurs! I'm long San Antonio for the championship (for a variety of reasons) but just don't trust Popovich enough in a game that has little meaning to his team. Even though they won, it wouldn't of surprised me had they lost by 10+. And it's stuff for which statistics most definitely can't account! I'll be interested in playing them - if the queries suggest so - come playoff time, because then you can be sure they'll be playing the best they can!
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Just saw your post. I have bet sports and followed cappers since the late 90's. I can't entirely agree with your statement I quoted. Of the two NBA cappers that I have mentioned in posts over the years that I do follow and have bought, who are both consistent winners, one of them, Jim Kruger, does use SDQL trends and has won in multiple sports with them. I have never seen anything from Erin Ryning that he uses SDQL, but he still is very good.Originally posted by Mako-SBR
I have subscribed to Statfox before, which a lot of cappers do and quote in their write-ups, but they don't realize that Statfox trends aren't always accurate. Kruger does quote fundamentals a lot so I don't think he only uses SDQL. Sportsbookbreakers on Killercappers claims to be winning a lot but when I have bought them, I usually don't like their SDQL trends. Cajun Sports from that website is more to my liking, but unlike Rynning and Kruger, I have never seen him monitored anywhere. A guy who seems to be good with SDQL is Doug Fitz or Fitzpatrick, he's in the Vegas newspaper with picks sometimes.
I don't think many cappers use their own SDQL, they are just quoting Statfox trends or maybe others that they get from Sportsinsights or other sites. Big Al uses a database similar to SDQL, along with Mark Lawrence, and they have had good success.Comment -
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`Originally posted by Tillos
Very nice result.
Favored the dog nicely also.
How much weight do folks put on the sample size.
Thanks for getting me off of the over but I didn't pull the trigger
on the Nuggs.Comment -
Contrarian play on the Celtics....I am not feeling it with them, but would get me off Bobcats if I was so inclined.
game number>70 and HD and tA(W)<.4 and total<200 and oA(W)>.5 and division!=o:division and rest>0 and o:rest>0 and p:L and op:W
12-28 (-5.05, 30.0%) 24-16-0 (2.70, 60.0%) avg line: 7.8 20-19-1 (1.15, 51.3%) avg total: 190.3 Comment -
game number>70 and playoffs=0 and HF and division!=o:division and line<=-12 and total>200 and tA(W)>.55 and rest>0 and o:rest>0
Under in the OKC/NO game.
SU: 34-3 (14.68, 91.9%)
ATS: 20-16-1 (0.54, 55.6%)
avg line: -14.1
O/U: 14-23-0 (-5.43, 37.8%)
avg total: 210.9Comment -
Another contrarian play....can't stomach this one.....though Smith being doubtful is addition by subtraction.
game number>70 and playoffs=0 and HF and division=o:division and tA(W)>.55 and 180<total<200<total<200 and="" oa(w)<.5="" p:aw="" op:l<total<200="" op:l
SU: 16-5 (7.81, 76.2%)
ATS: 6-14-1 (-3.07, 30.0%)
avg line: -10.9
O/U: 11-9-1 (2.48, 55.0%)
avg total: 189.2</total<200>Comment -
game number>70 and playoffs=0 and HF and division!=o:division and tA(W)>.6 and total<200 and oA(W)>.6 and rest>0 and o:rest>0 and line>-7 and p:L and op:W
SU: 7-8 (0.73, 46.7%)
ATS: 6-9-0 (-2.63, 40.0%)
avg line: -3.4
O/U: 12-3-0 (11.00, 80.0%)
avg total: 188.1
Interesting call on the over for Miami/Indy.
All of these plays are verrrrry contrarian, be careful over the next week in the NBA guys.Comment -
I really like Killersports trend on Over in Memphis:
p: ou margin >= 18 and op: ou margin >= 24 and season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and site = home and p:site = home and op:site = away
p: ou margin >= 18 and op: ou margin >= 24 and season > 2007 and playoffs=0
If we take this season only, we still get very good results...Comment -
This one is for March and April (better for March), but still very good one and delivers the state of mind of a good team off a home loss.
p:site=home and site=home and 20121015<=date and p:L and WP>50 and month=3
p:site=home and site=home and 20121015<=date and p:L and WP>50 and month=4
It supports nicely Dallas play on Saturday perhaps...Comment -
month=4 and n:rest=0 and division!=o:division and AD and playoffs=0 and division!=o:division and total>195 and line<6Comment -
The bigger the sample size the less chance of it being just a random result.Originally posted by 19th Hole~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
Very nice result.
Favored the dog nicely also.
How much weight do folks put on the sample size.
I think it was Mako who has a great post on how to determine if a trend is good or not, somewhere in the first few pages of the thread.Comment -
p:site=home and site=home and 20121015<=date and p:L and WP>50 and month=3,4 and o:WP>50Originally posted by dmitean
And here if they play a good team as well (short line probably is a big factor).Comment -
SO much juicy action tonight, particularly from the older queries in the thread that were posted previously. BOL to all, big card for sure.
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any ideas why the Houston/Minnesota line shifted all the way from Hou -2 to Min -1.5?? I'm not liking my bet already! lolComment -
James Harden is not going to play, apparently. Howard also out.Originally posted by CougsComment -
Haven't even look at NBA yet,,been at MLB all day today (more time consuming). IMO and personal success, I wait, as a SDQL user, until the line movement settles before I play. Just my personal preference. I am not worried about grabbing an early line. If the situation still applies I will consider. Most of my situations are line filtered, if it shifts, no reason to play it. In fact I don't see it as the database changes its lines.Originally posted by CougsComment -
this is a perfect example. And the reason, I've stated before, a situation is a situation...I pay no attention to injuries or who is playing or not playing, the line adjustment will do it for you in most circumstances.Originally posted by WojoComment -
Originally posted by WojoOriginally posted by JMon
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Wonderful to have the help and knowledge....
Thanks....
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Yes, this x100.Originally posted by JMon
People always ask about how injuries are factored in the second they first grasp how we go about betting using SDQL-researched scenarios and the answer is exactly what JMon posted.
The late line is your friend, you're not trying to jump on the earliest possible line when using these situation-based plays as you might be when looking for EV via other handicapping methods. Not only because the injury news during the day may turn you off of a game completely as it did for many of us with Houston tonight, but also because the overreaction might also give you a few points as a gift on a game that you're staying with.
Same thing happened a week or two ago with MIN having a few queries highlighting them and Love being out screwing anyone who didn't see it and bet the system blindly.
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Holy crap! you are not kidding...tonight appears to a make or break of sdql'ers... I see a landside or breakeven.. but I will list my games I am playing for the sake of it. Hope others may follow and list their games!!!!!. By all means do not follow me; as I don't need the sob story of a loss. No lines listed..you know why.Originally posted by Mako-SBRSO much juicy action tonight, particularly from the older queries in the thread that were posted previously. BOL to all, big card for sure.
Det
Phil
Lal
Wash
Atl
Hou ML
Clev
Char
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My plays for tonight.
Portland -7'
Phoenix +2' Dragic is listed as questionable and that is a BIG loss, but Duncan and Ginobili are out for SA. I expected Parker to be out and probably will regret this play.......the line has moved against me, as it should have.
Wanted to play Houston, but can't with both starting guards and Howard out, will delve deeper and if Jeremy Lin is starting for Houston may go with the T'Wolves. The difference of Harden not playing and Lin starting in his place should be about 7 points in my opinion.
Still possible: Under OKC/NO
Still possible: Boston +4....I posted a query earlier favoring the Celts, now that Kemba Walker is listed as not starting, I am pretty interested, as point guard injuries, especially if they are excellent players are the most significant injuries to a team.Comment -
enjoy your weekend, guysComment -
I didn't have time today to look at much SDQL. I did play Charlotte under 194, and Houston +1.5, and Cleveland -4.
Good luck to everybody tonight.Comment -
I think you are saying the opposite of what JMon said. You agree that injury can be a reason for you to stay off the game competely, while JMon claims that an angle is an angle no matter what.Originally posted by Mako-SBRYes, this x100.
People always ask about how injuries are factored in the second they first grasp how we go about betting using SDQL-researched scenarios and the answer is exactly what JMon posted.
The late line is your friend, you're not trying to jump on the earliest possible line when using these situation-based plays as you might be when looking for EV via other handicapping methods. Not only because the injury news during the day may turn you off of a game completely as it did for many of us with Houston tonight, but also because the overreaction might also give you a few points as a gift on a game that you're staying with.
Same thing happened a week or two ago with MIN having a few queries highlighting them and Love being out screwing anyone who didn't see it and bet the system blindly.
I agree with your side.
Angle, if it's not just an angle, but a reasonable one and especially JMon usually has a reason for a query and as such, injury is a huge factor.
For example, if you look at good team off a home loss as an angle playing B2B and see that it's a good angle (just an example) - but that team plays many with many players out and the other team needs the game a lot more - that is a reason to change your mind.
If, like JMon posted - betting on good rebounding teams against bad rebounding teams in the end of the season = money, but you learn before the game, that both best rebounders of the team are out - the query means nothing, regardless of the outcome of the bet (win or lose).
But that's just my opinion...Comment -
Really easy Over, never in doubt even...Originally posted by dmiteanComment -
good work, myself didn't spend the time on research and had a losing dayOriginally posted by dmiteanComment -
game number > 55 and division!= o:division and HF and rest=0 and o:rest = 0 and oA(W)<.33 and day=SaturdayComment -
It also works great if instead of Saturday, you enter April:Originally posted by green7
game number > 55 and division!= o:division and HF and rest=0 and o:rest = 0 and oA(W)<.33 and month=4
5-21-1 (-5.87, 19.2%) avg line: -9.4 Comment -
p:date == t:date -1 and 208 >= total >= 200.5 and P:L and P:margin <= -30Comment -
I believe this is one of Mako's
H and (p: D or p:HFL) and (rest + pp:rest + ppp:rest) = 1 and game number >= 15 and op:rest <= 1 and o:rest < 4 and conference = EasternComment
