P:L and Po: points >= 110 and op:FL and op:division = opo:division and 2009 <= season
review western conf/D and rest=0
Bol
review western conf/D and rest=0
Bol
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as Mako, alluded too these trends, cannot be bet into blindly, Hawks were fighting for the last seed, last nite and clinchedComment -
you could query teams within a certain win number (ie. 40-43) in the month of april....however, there's no certainty that your artificially proposed number of wins represents teams fighting for playoffs. for example, this year, that parameter would miss the western conference teams where 50 (!) wins are needed to make the playoffs. without putting a huge amount of thought into it, i think it would be hard to capture that kinda of queryComment -
surely it has some limitations.....I guess the key is to weed out the queries that are non -applicable to certain situations, such as playoff seeding....I don't know ........Comment -
something to consider tonight as i fumbled around with queries.
we're looking at the total in a game where the away team has a winning percentage > 55% and will be playing away again the following day against a team with a similar winning percentage, while their opponent today has a winning percentage < 40% and is poor defensively (gives up on average 105 or more points). relatively small sample size; if you remove the parameter looking at the WP of the away team, you'll find the home team to have had this same scenario play out 3 other times in 2014 with the same successful outcome on the total.
A and o:WP<40 and oA(o
oints)>105 and n:rest=0 and no:WP>55 and n:A and WP>55
A and o:WP<40 and oA(ooints)>105 and n:rest=0 and no:WP>55 and n:A
thoughts? BOL if you playComment -
Keep in mind today, who might be motivated to win and who might want to lose. Two teams that might want to lose come to mind, the Raptors and the Bulls. The Pacers are now the number one seed and will to go to Orlando for their final game and if they win they will be the number one seed in the East....... or they can get the first seed if Miami loses to Washington (James is supposed to be out). (Can the Pacers possibly lose to the Magic?,...they certainly can by the way they've been playing.) The team that is seeded fourth would play the number one seed in the second round barring a pretty big upset in the first round. Would you rather play the Heat or the Pacers? The Raptors and the Bulls are tied for third and fourth going into today's games, with the Raptors owning the tiebreaker, and the Bulls took a pretty big loss yesterday versus the Knicks, who had nothing to play for.
Also keep in mind that below 33% teams in April are historically very good against the spread.
Be careful and fortunate.Comment -
I thought I would throw this out there knowing full well that I am a rookie at this and these last few games of the season are more oriented toward jockeying for playoff positioning than anything else:
team=Bulls and rest=0 and p:dpa>5 and season>2009
Yields
SU: 16-8 (3.67, 66.7%)
ATS: 15-9-0 (1.48, 62.5%) avg line: -2.2
O/U: 9-15-0 (-0.33, 37.5%) avg total: 187.3
If you throw in an o:rest=0, the sample size moves to 10 and the o/u becomes 2-8-0...Comment -
Nice find Pip. When in doubt play the Bulls under.....
HF and month=4 and rest=0 and p:AW and division!=o:division and oA(W)<=.34
Versus Raptors
HF and month=4 and rest=0 and p:AL and division!=o:division and oA(W)<=.34
Versus Bulls
HF and month=4 and rest=0 and p:AL and division!=o:division and oA(W)<=.51
Versus WarriorsComment -
month=4 and rest=0 and p:AL and A and division!=o:division and tA(W)>.6 and o:rest>0
Versus Thunder
pp:AL and p:AL and p:M2>0 and pp:M2>0 and HF and division!=o:division and rest>0 and o:rest=0
Versus Suns
AD and tA(W)>.66 and month=4 and division=o:division and rest>0 and o:rest>0 and game number>76
on Spurs, HeatLast edited by green7; 04-14-14, 12:05 PM.Comment -
Thanks Green. I forgot to mention another caveat...that search actually arose out of a hunt for Overs:
team=Bulls and p:dpa>5 and season>2012 and pp:dpa>5
Yielded three games that were all overs, including an earlier game between Bulls and Magic on Jan 15 that went 20 points over in regulation and another 50 or so in triple overtime...Comment -
Hey Pip
I'm not playing the total......good fortune with your picks tonight.Comment -
Dr Ed has "under" in the thunder game tonight Kevin Durantoints>=30 and p:AL and date>=20131201
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Spurs, Heat
The Spurs will give it their best effort, as they've lost 3 in a row to Houston.
The team I'm not convinced will give it their best effort is the Heat, as they can assure themselves the 2nd seed by losing tonight. Why would they want to do that? They would avoid having to play the Nets (if they were to win their first play-offs series) until the conference finals. The Nets in my opinion are just as likely to win the East as the Heat. If the Heat win tonight, the Pacers still could lose at Orlando the way they've been playing, which would give the number one seed back to the Heat. A possibility of a tank job tonight....and Bosh, and James not playing. I definitely would look at a second half play on the Wiz if it's close at half
I played the Heat originally as the query specified, but have backed out and sacrificed the juice.Last edited by green7; 04-14-14, 05:27 PM.Comment -
I'm looking at the Heat as being ready to go out and run a tough defense tonight with Beasly hungry to prove he can outscore Lebron. Not sure the Spurs can handle HOU even if they go hard...anyways, good luck and thanks again!Comment -
tA(W)>.53 and game number=82 and AD and oA(W)>.38Comment -
Thanks green! The only one I got worried about was NO/HOU. But I ran this query: 20 < Pelicans : Tyreke Evans : p : points , and though the sample size isn't exactly gigantic, it certainly isn't contrary to your query's result...and there were two I was already on the trail of (cle and den), so I will double up on them...Last edited by pip2; 04-16-14, 06:07 PM.Comment -
Agree, to me green's scenario was somewhat similar to a well known NFL game 16-only scenario where you look to play large home favorites (-3 or more) if they're up against divisional opponents and are NOT resting their starters.
Usually in the NFL it's the opposite play, you take the div dog and the points nearly all of the time due to the league's insane parity, but for the final game it flips.
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Annnnnnnnnd a nice 4-2 night to end the regular season a high note.
Excellent job green, I felt your scenario was a winner within a minute of looking at the numbers despite a small sample size (and not just the ATS % win rate lurkers as there are many other numbers in an SDQL query that are equally important like ATSm, season over season performance, in/out of Conference/Division historical results, etc, etc).
Went max units on all six teams without hesitation, wish scenarios were always that clear. Thanks again for sharing.Comment -
Good to hear everyone did well. Let's continue on for the playoffs.
Looking into the NHL playoffs, as my baseball have sickening lately.Comment -
Yes, thanks very much green! Now I will become doubly rookie-ish, watching how you guys go about querying playoff scenarios....Comment -
The NBA playoffs will be about team profiling in the beginning. What characteristics does a team possess that translate to pointspread success in the playoffs. Is it good field goal percentage? Is it good defensive field goal percentage? Is it point differential?, etc.Comment -
playoffs = 1 and series game and tA(points-ooints)-oA(points-ooints)>3 and round=1
This fits Toronto, SA, Indy, OKC, Miami
Teams in that fit these parameters are 24-10 ATS in games 5, 6, 7 after a win.Comment -
I found this profiling interesting.
We are looking at teams that both allow over 100 points per game in the first round of the playoffs.
playoffs = 1 and series game and tA(ooints)>100 and oA(ooints)>100 and HF and total>200
Now, I am assuming that the SDQL is using regular season parameters and not as we go playoff parameters. Can someone verify this? In other words, if I am querying teams that allow over 100 points/game, in game 4 of the playoffs, are we seeing teams that allowed that in the regular season (which is what I require) or a cumulative average against for the playoffs? Or is it the cumulative average points allowed for the regular season AND the playoffs combined?
Anyway the query reveals that home teams in this query are only 5-9 ATS and 4-10 OVER in this situation in round 1, so we would look to go contrarian on the total.
This fits the Houston/Portland series.Comment -
playoffs = 1 and series game = 1 and tA(points) - tA(ooints) < 5 and AD and op:L
Bulls, Heat, Raptors, Clippers, Spurs, Rockets
playoffs = 1 and series game = 1 and tA(points) - tA(ooints) < 5 and AD and op:L and round=1 and p:W
Bulls, Heat, Clippers, Rockets
playoffs = 1 and series game = 1 and tA(points) - tA(ooints) < 5 and AD and op:L and round=1 and p:L
Spurs, RaptorsComment -
A sharp guy on another board had some data showing that elimination games played in rounds 2 and up, in games 6 and 7, went under at a high rate. I wrote the query below to try to check that. I'm not getting as high a rate as he was reporting, but what I am getting isn't bad either...and even in the first round it might be useful...
playoffs = 1 and (series wins=3 or o:series wins=3) and round>1 and (series game=6 or series game=7) and season>2002Comment -
Here's an interesting set of queries.
We're looking at how a team does their last 20 games, and how it impacts their first game playoff performance.
For road teams, the cut-off points seems to be 13 out of 20. Teams that have won >13/20 of their previous games perform very well on the road first game of the first round.
tS(W, N=20)>13 and series game=1 and round=1 and A
That produces a 12-6 ATS record. Those qualifying teams are the Bobcats and the Grizzlies.
Teams that have won <=13/20
tS(W, N=20)<14 and series game=1 and round=1 and A
produce a 25-42 record, which is all of the other playoff road teams besides the Bobcats and Grizz.
If their opponent is off a loss the results go to 8-22 ATS,....those teams are: GSW, Brooklyn, Washington, Portland, Dallas
However Home teams winning >14/20 of their last games are only 12-15 ATS first game, first round. That includes the Spurs and Clippers this year.
Those winning <=14/20 are much better at 36-22 ATS, which is all of the other home playoff teams.
Historically from these queries, this will have us looking seriously at the Grizzlies, Raptors, Bulls and Rockets first game of the playoffs.Last edited by green7; 04-17-14, 06:10 PM.Comment -
Good work in here guys! I don't play much playoffs..but will post if I find one. Finished up the year a little over +17u. My mind is in MLB...best luck to you guys and it been great working with you all this season!!!! I only hope that I helped in your knowledge of sdql!!!!
you can follow fellow sdqler's, myself and figster on the MLB contest currently #1 and 2!!!
Last edited by JMon; 04-17-14, 08:17 PM.Comment
