NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[pip2]

Good work in here guys! I don't play much playoffs..but will post if I find one. Finished up the year a little over +17u. My mind is in MLB...best luck to you guys and it been great working with you all this season!!!! I only hope that I helped in your knowledge of sdql!!!!

You did good by me Jmon, thanks. (I'm still a little bug-eyed from reading through all the posts and plugging in most of the queries...)

[pip2]

In case it is of any use, slightly conflicting query: ATS record of teams that won more than 59 games during the season, playing in the first game of the first round (Spurs): 12-6

tS(W,N=82)>59 and playoffs=1 and round=1 and series game = 1

The 12 wins appear to be composed of 7 strong wins (covered by more than 3 points) and 5 weak wins (coin flips), while the losses look like 5 strong losses and 1 weak loss...

[JAnthony]

Hey, guys! Playoffs are here! Gonna try to find some situations in playoffs as well.

Here's one worth looking at:

H and playoffs=1 and round=1 and series game=1 and total<=185

I was researching different 1st round "extremes" (lowest, highest lines and totals) and stumbled upon this trend pointing over.

[Mako-SBR]

Good work in here guys! I don't play much playoffs..but will post if I find one. Finished up the year a little over +17u. My mind is in MLB...best luck to you guys and it been great working with you all this season!!!! I only hope that I helped in your knowledge of sdql!!!!

you can follow fellow sdqler's, myself and figster on the MLB contest currently #1 and 2!!!

http://contests.sbrforum.com/mlb-201...-contest-4755/

J, can't thank you enough for your tireless work in the thread, have never won this many units from a full NBA season as I did this year. Cheers buddy!

And thanks to everyone who pitched and and elevated the game along the way, a rising tide certainly lifts all boats.

[green7]

Good find JAnthony!

If the away team is off a win this query strongly supports the home team and the over.

Pip,

Here is the query for how each individual playoff team has done last 20 games.

tS(W, N=20) and date>20140418 and team

[pip2]

Thanks green. So the date establishes the point from which the last 20 games are counted back?

[green7]

Yes, the database will figure out the past 20 games, putting the date in the query was necessary to calculate the present team's L20 situation....not sure if it is required during the regular season.

Also teams that start out the playoffs on the road winning at least 14 out of their last 20 games are 4-11 game 2 on the road, and 2-9 game three at home.....something to watch with the Bobcats and the Grizzlies. This also tells us the L20 calculation is cumulative into the playoffs as there are less game three games than game 2.

[green7]

HF and playoffs=1 and round=1 and series game=1 and p:AL and day

Making things as simple as possible....good fortune.

[green7]

And, I've done research on the NHL playoffs going back manually to check results (the database doesn't have the capability to check series games in the playoffs) and I found an interesting tidbit.

In round one of the playoffs the past 5 years, teams that won game one, the winner of the that game has a record in the subsequent game (2) of 18-30.

A home winner in game one, is 11-17 game two

An away winner in game one, is 7-13 game two.


So, one would be inclined to go opposite of what happened in game one....except this year that strategy has started out with two losses, with six game game twos left.

I found this to be fun, interesting and hopefully lucrative.....use it if you're feeling it. To those that might be miffed that I used a basketball thread to talk about ice hockey.....so sorry.

[JAnthony]

HF and playoffs=1 and round=1 and series game=1 and p:AL and day

Making things as simple as possible....good fortune.

Not convinced with that 10 game sample size and parameter "p:AL", since previous game in this situation does not matter at all, or at least it shouldn't matter to the teams in playoff, because those are mostly meaningless games for resting their starters.

[green7]

If you're feeling it play it, JA.....and if you're not you'll find something that you resonate with.

[Cougs]

small home favorites doing well ATS in the playoffs since 2009

playoffs=1 and HF and -3<=line<=0 and season>=2009

gl

[JAnthony]

small home favorites doing well ATS in the playoffs since 2009

playoffs=1 and HF and -3<=line<=0 and season>=2009

gl

Looked into the exact same scenario. Though, it has huge up and down fluctuation. Not consistent enough for me. But, anyway, I do think that Raptors is a good bet today, regardless any trends.

[Wojo]

And, I've done research on the NHL playoffs going back manually to check results (the database doesn't have the capability to check series games in the playoffs) and I found an interesting tidbit.

In round one of the playoffs the past 5 years, teams that won game one, the winner of the that game has a record in the subsequent game (2) of 18-30.

A home winner in game one, is 11-17 game two

An away winner in game one, is 7-13 game two.

I found this to be fun, interesting and hopefully lucrative.....use it if you're feeling it. To those that might be miffed that I used a basketball thread to talk about ice hockey.....so sorry.

Thanks for the NHL insight. I was going to look at the playoffs, just haven't had the time.

[pip2]

Looked into the exact same scenario. Though, it has huge up and down fluctuation. Not consistent enough for me. But, anyway, I do think that Raptors is a good bet today, regardless any trends.

The long strings of ATS "L"'s seem to go away if you add in a "and round=1" to the query. Does doing so reduce the sample size too much?

[pip2]

At halftime bkn vs tor:

playoffs=1 and series game=1 and HF and 5>M2>-5


SU: 13-8 (3.05, 61.9%)


Lines up with 2nd half spread of Tor -4, which tor could only win by winning straight up...

[emceeaye]

39-15 (5.28, 72.2%)

Does anyone know if "5.28" is a z-score or another statistic like a chi-square statistic?

[Mako-SBR]

HF and playoffs=1 and round=1 and series game=1 and p:AL and day

Making things as simple as possible....good fortune.

I passed on TOR as I wasn't convinced about that team personally but I tailed this query for the other three games.

In all sports it seems that there's a statistical blip, albeit a small one, of going chalk on home favs in the first round/first game of the playoffs. Works for me.

39-15 (5.28, 72.2%)

Does anyone know if "5.28" is a z-score or another statistic like a chi-square statistic?

Ha, we wish, it's simply the average margin of victory.

The long strings of ATS "L"'s seem to go away if you add in a "and round=1" to the query. Does doing so reduce the sample size too much?

For me personally, if I'm going to go with a smaller sample (and it doesn't get much smaller than playoff queries unfortunately) it has to be an 80%+ winner over that span, minimum, with a +5 or more average win margin ATS, along with a few other things.

And even then it's a total gamble as you're never going to be sure on so few games.

I liked green's small sample query enough to tail the stronger teams (no on TOR, yes on LAC/CHI/HOU), but this one just isn't dominant enough for me to throw money on. Good data either way though pip.

[figue]

guys help with this ,zig zag teory:

postseason
home team
lost last game
spread -4/-14.5

[figue]

guys help with this ,zig zag teory:

postseason
home team
lost last game
spread -4/-14.5

where is it that bettors can expect to catch the best value possible with NBA Zig-Zags these days?

Double-digit dogs are 41-22-1 ATS - 65.2 percent - and favorites of 4.5 or more point off a loss of 20 or more are 29-8 ATS • 78.3 percent.

[pip2]

:

I liked green's small sample query enough to tail the stronger teams (no on TOR, yes on LAC/CHI/HOU), but this one just isn't dominant enough for me to throw money on. Good data either way though pip.

Thanks Mako. The more I pay attention, the shorter the learning curve will be...

[pip2]

Hey, guys! Playoffs are here! Gonna try to find some situations in playoffs as well.

Here's one worth looking at:

H and playoffs=1 and round=1 and series game=1 and total<=185

I was researching different 1st round "extremes" (lowest, highest lines and totals) and stumbled upon this trend pointing over.

Thanks!

[JR007]

Happy Easter to all and thanks for the help

[figue]

i have to share this amazing query from gg sdb ,dont ask me what it say lol.

playoffs==1 and (site=='home' and line + 0<0) and total>167 and total<=190 and seed in [2 , 3 , 4] and series game<7 and round<4 and streak>-4 and o:streak>-4 and o:streak<6 and rest<5 and WP<73.6 and p:TPP<45.6 and op:TPP<55 and op:TO>7 and p:FGP<55 and op:FGP<57 and pooints>64 and p:assists>10 and p:assists<30 and opo:assists>8 and p:FTP<94.2 and po:rebounds>29 and po:rebounds<55 and poffensive rebounds>3 and opoffensive rebounds>3 and po:three pointers made<14 and opo:three pointers made>0 and o:ats streak<11

107-9 (13.80, 92.2%)
100-15-1 (7.52, 87.0%)	avg line: -6.3
67-48-1 (1.29, 58.3%)	avg total: 183.1

[JAnthony]

i have to share this amazing query from gg sdb ,dont ask me what it say lol.

playoffs==1 and (site=='home' and line + 0<0) and total>167 and total<=190 and seed in [2 , 3 , 4] and series game<7 and round<4 and streak>-4 and o:streak>-4 and o:streak<6 and rest<5 and WP<73.6 and p:TPP<45.6 and op:TPP<55 and op:TO>7 and p:FGP<55 and op:FGP<57 and pooints>64 and p:assists>10 and p:assists<30 and opo:assists>8 and p:FTP<94.2 and po:rebounds>29 and po:rebounds<55 and poffensive rebounds>3 and opoffensive rebounds>3 and po:three pointers made<14 and opo:three pointers made>0 and o:ats streak<11

107-9 (13.80, 92.2%)
100-15-1 (7.52, 87.0%)	avg line: -6.3
67-48-1 (1.29, 58.3%)	avg total: 183.1

WOW! Just, WOW!

[tonywayne]

Am very curious how the game 2's will shake out, given all the upsets thus far. Thought this was interesting:

playoffs = 1 and season >= 2005 and series game = 2 and p:AW

[chopperocker]

Am very curious how the game 2's will shake out, given all the upsets thus far. Thought this was interesting:

playoffs = 1 and season >= 2005 and series game = 2 and p:AW

idk if SDQL has way to separate the seeds but #6, #7, #8 exclusively combine for 1-16 SU and 6-11 ATS results in this situation since '03

[emceeaye]

No sure if the added term to include seeds 6, 7, and 8 is correct (just borrowed it from long query posted by Figue a couple of posts ago), but not sure why but I'm getting different numbers returned than you:

SU: 0-14 (-13.50, 0.0%)
ATS: 4-10-0 (-5.00, 28.6%) avg line: 8.5

playoffs = 1 and season >= 2003 and series game = 2 and p:AW and seed in [6, 7, 8]

idk if SDQL has way to separate the seeds but #6, #7, #8 exclusively combine for 1-16 SU and 6-11 ATS results in this situation since '03

[chopperocker]

No sure if the added term to include seeds 6, 7, and 8 is correct (just borrowed it from long query posted by Figue a couple of posts ago), but not sure why but I'm getting different numbers returned than you:

SU: 0-14 (-13.50, 0.0%)
ATS: 4-10-0 (-5.00, 28.6%) avg line: 8.5

playoffs = 1 and season >= 2003 and series game = 2 and p:AW and seed in [6, 7, 8]

likely correct. my charts don't distinguish if higher seed played game 1 on the road. in 2005-2006 playoffs #3 Denver played games 1 and 2 Away losing both outright and 0-1 SUATS in game 2 that's 1 discrepancy.

playoffs = 1 and season >= 2003 and series game = 2 and p:HW and seed in [6, 7, 8]

then 1 ATS cover out there also.

thanx bro! I didn't know the language for seed separation.

[JMon]

total>=200 and P:FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o:WP>=60 and 2005<=season and o:rest>0

[Mako-SBR]

total>=200 and P:FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o:WP>=60 and 2005<=season and o:rest>0

Even works in the postseason, which is the easter egg I'm sure you posted this for the rest of us to enjoy.
Nice buddy.

[Alex Vaile]

Sorry to bother but what do all those inquiries indicate? Which side is the play?

[chopperocker]

Sorry to bother but what do all those inquiries indicate? Which side is the play?

today
Clippers/Warriors Under 77.4%
Clippers straight up 90%
Clippers against the spread 65.5%

[Mako-SBR]

today
Clippers/Warriors Under 77.4%
Clippers straight up 90%
Clippers against the spread 65.5%

Don't tell people the picks, point of the thread is to make them learn how to use SDQL to be able to then contribute their own unique queries to the thread. Only way they do that is by them reading the thread start to finish and taking the journey to SDQL bliss.

[JR007]

total>=200 and P:FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o:WP>=60 and 2005<=season and o:rest>0