NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[JMon]

MLB...be prepared fellas...dollars will be funneling in. My MLB is based on months....so you know. Any fan knows this.

[JMon]

Hey Mako,

Sorry mate could you please tell me what this play is? When I copy and paste into the SDQL query and just says that it is an error and I know there are issues with copy and pasting with the queries.

one of my plays? what is the problem? So I can help

[Mako-SBR]

Hey Mako,

Sorry mate could you please tell me what this play is? When I copy and paste into the SDQL query and just says that it is an error and I know there are issues with copy and pasting with the queries.

Colons/spaces guys...we know it's frustrating but it's SBR's issue. Eliminate the spaces after colons in any query posted in this thread when you copy and paste it into SDQL and you're always good to go.

We're trying to stay away from posting the picks directly, because it will attract the wrong leech element into the thread. People need to solve their issues with SDQL step by step (including the first one: colons/spaces) in order to begin the path to mastering it.

We're here to help through roadblocks, just let us know.

MLB...be prepared fellas...dollars will be funneling in. My MLB is based on months....so you know. Any fan knows this.

Can't wait for the class (season) to begin...

[FortySix]

Sorry Jmon, Mako made a comment about this post P:L and Po: points >= 110 and op:FL and op:division = opo:division and 2009 <= season.t into the SDQL i just get an error message so I wasn't sure of the play exactly.

[FortySix]

Thanks Mako, just saw your reply now. Will do that. Thanks buddy..

[Mako-SBR]

Thanks Mako, just saw your reply now. Will do that. Thanks buddy..

No problem 46, it's annoying that SBR's autofill routine does it but thankfully our little workaround fixes it.

[FortySix]

Yeah just worked it out after you told me but I missed the play unfortunately but all good. Hope it hits for you.

Absolutely love this thread, slowly figuring out the SDQL query, I guess it just takes time.

[TheLuckFactor]

I like it...I will play..

817 Clippers -9 (-110) risk 220.00 win 200.00 (NBA)

03/14/14 19:03:01

#28877505

Thanks JMon, I am on the them for 220 as well. Hope it hits!

Jmon is right this one isn't bad at all, good job Luck.

For game sample sizes everyone is different but generally you want to see as large a sample as possible. I try to shoot for 50+ games from 2006-2013, or roughly 6-7 plays per season. It's ok to go lower for sure, just make sure your filters make logical sense (there's a reason behind them beyond just better numbers).

Nice work and welcome to the thread!

Great advice, thanks Mako. Looking forward to contributing to the group!

[JMon]

ugg..ot..that's it goes sometimes.

[Wojo]

School is in season...

P:L and Po: points >= 110 and op:FL and op:division = opo:division and 2009 <= season

To me, this is something I have difficulties with. Yes, this trend has done well since 2009. However, the three seasons before that it lost and going back ten years you have an ATS record of 41-65, 32-65 between 2003 and 2008.

The question I always ask is why would the trend change so dramatically? Personally, I don't see a reason for the change.

If someone knows why there would be such a huge difference in the past few years from the previous ten seasons, I would love to hear it.

Good talk here in this thread.

[JMon]

To me, this is something I have difficulties with. Yes, this trend has done well since 2009. However, the three seasons before that it lost and going back ten years you have an ATS record of 41-65, 32-65 between 2003 and 2008.

The question I always ask is why would the trend change so dramatically? Personally, I don't see a reason for the change.

If someone knows why there would be such a huge difference in the past few years from the previous ten seasons, I would love to hear it.

Good talk here in this thread.

You learned from it!

[Wojo]

You learned from it!

No, I really didn't. I have known this for over 10 years.

Maybe you learned from it?

[figue]

this support portland too:

A and rest<=2 and line<0 and points+p:line<pooints and opooints<opoints+op:line and WP>32 and WP<78 and season>=2013

2-1-1 today
</op</po

[figue]

School is in season...

P:L and Po: points >= 110 and op:FL and op:division = opo:division and 2009 <= season

love school

[figue]

p:al and op:margin>10 and p:hw and 65>wp>o:wp and -10<=line<=-5 and h

my logic in this is taking the better team in a away loss revenge spot. Both teams coming off wins and home team is a decent favourite. If you get rid of the 65 still hits over 60% and gives you a larger sample

any input is welcomed thanks

tomorrow bulls.

[JMon]

No, I really didn't. I have known this for over 10 years.

Maybe you learned from it?

Yes, I have learned that when I found this situation just three years ago I have made large amount of cash on it. Will it go south, stop trending? It may and out the database it will go, like many before. But one thing that is most important here, I can promise you I will make more money on this situation than I will lose, before and if I dump it. Just like one of my stocks. Perhaps I will just keep my situations to myself.

[JMon]

Thanks JMon, I am on the them for 220 as well. Hope it hits!

Push is better than I loss

[Wojo]

Yes, I have learned that when I found this situation just three years ago I have made large amount of cash on it. Will it go south, stop trending? It may and out the database it will go, like many before. But one thing that is most important here, I can promise you I will make more money on this situation than I will lose, before and if I dump it. Just like one of my stocks. Perhaps I will just keep my situations to myself.

Excellent point. I was originally only voicing an issue I have had using trends over the years. You are correct in that some trends work for awhile and then stop. Some only work a few months as was the case with a 2013 trend earlier used in this thread.

Using logic as some people have in their posts explaining their trend I believe helps weed out trends that have a greater chance of going bad. You obviously are doing a great job of knowing when to stop using a trend and when to keep following it. I haven't done as good of job at that as you have.

great conversation! And I am learning!

[JR007]

this is good stuff, and I know nothing works all the time, but you gotta look at the board, Bookmaker only put out one moneyline on the game, at 11:00 in the morning scared me off this play, the board gives you information in real time, and that is important

[comon kryptonite]

What other games did you play if you don't kind me asking?? Phoenix Portland??

[b1slickguy]

Great to see the thread still churning out winners.
Small play for today.
Good luck.

H and rest=0 and p: overtime>0 and p:AW

[Wojo]

Example of trend gone bad that is active today:
Sum(ats margin > 0@team and season, N=5) = 1 and 8 > Sum(o:ats margin > 0@o:team and o:season, N=8) >= 6 and H and season > 2007 and D

This has an ATS record of 42-18-2, 70.0%, pretty good! But, if you look at the past 12 months it has gone 1-7-1 ATS. The five years prior to when the trend originally started winning, it was .500. Knowing when to stop betting a trend is obviously very important.

[Mako-SBR]

Example of trend gone bad that is active today:
Sum(ats margin > 0@team and season, N=5) = 1 and 8 > Sum(o:ats margin > 0@o:team and o:season, N=8) >= 6 and H and season > 2007 and D

This has an ATS record of 42-18-2, 70.0%, pretty good! But, if you look at the past 12 months it has gone 1-7-1 ATS. The five years prior to when the trend originally started winning, it was .500. Knowing when to stop betting a trend is obviously very important.

To the lurkers reading the thread and experiencing SDQL for perhaps the first time:

Everyone has their own standards of evaluation, but in this particular example there were multiple close outcomes within that 1-7-1, which can be seen by looking at the ATSm of that particular set of games.

In other words, with that small of a sample combined with that thin of a margin, I personally wouldn't yet dismiss the scenario as having gone bad. That doesn't mean I'm "right" and Wojo is "wrong", far from it. It just means in this very specific case it's way too soon to tell if the scenario has expired.

Now if it continues to display poor performance, through say the entire 2014 season next year, another 10-15 plays, at that point I'd re-evaluate and really look hard at dismissing it because the sample would then be large enough to make that sort of definitive conclusion.

But at 1-7-1 with those particular outcomes against the spread I wouldn't have much problem with it at this point.

Again, everyone has their own individual standards for what MAKES a query and what BREAKS a query, you'll learn yours as you go and will adopt whatever you feel comfortable with. There are no wrong ways of looking at it.

[Wojo]

Very good observation, Mako. I hadn't looked at the size of the ATS loss margins. I always look at overtimes in OU trends, but usually not with ATS ones. In looking at the 5+ seasons overall, most of the losses were by small margins. Perhaps I did jump to a too-rapid conclusion.

I assume most people who use SDQL have biases in what type of trend and certain qualifiers they prefer. I tried using the DPA/DPS qualifiers in the past but never came up with anything worthwhile. Nor have I found the BAP or ATR parameters to be useful.

[Reigntrs8]

Still trying to figure out how this works.. Confused

[JayHorne3]

Simple query focused on fatigue:

SDQL: HD and rest=0 and p: W and p: overtime>0

Basically fading the home dog and 0 rest, following a win in overtime the prior night. Hence the play is fade the Wizards tonight. Good luck to any that tail

3-19 (-8.73, 13.6%)
6-16-0 (-3.39, 27.3%)
10-12-0 (-0.48, 45.5%)

[cofaga]

tS(W, N=10)>=8 and AF and line>=-5 and o: rest=0 and rest>o: rest

Use it if you want

[Wojo]

Thanks, cofaga. That looks like a good one!

[Noleafclover]

Wish I'd seen these. Nets up 3 already. If you take off HD from JayHorne's, you still have decent results (not as good) and a larger sample size.

[Mako-SBR]

Thread is firing all cylinders, 3-1 tonight and the only loss missed by less than a single bucket ATS (Hawks)...

SDQL + group of smart posters =

Nice queries by the way Jay and cofaga, very solid especially with some tweaks.

[figue]

Thread is firing all cylinders, 3-1 tonight and the only loss missed by less than a single bucket ATS (Hawks)...

SDQL + group of smart posters =


Nice queries by the way Jay and cofaga, very solid especially with some tweaks.

mako im lost,could i ask you what was the sdql for 3-1 today ??

[Mako-SBR]

mako im lost,could i ask you what was the sdql for 3-1 today ??

Too lazy to edit these back down to their wider base scenarios prior to posting for mass consumption here (which is why they all say >=2013 instead of going further back), so no whining about how they're over-filtered from the usual suspects. I obviously know they're over-filtered, thanks, and I have my reasons for doing it my way. Feel free to adjust them to your own tastes similarly:

ATL (spread,loss):
(AD or HF) and p:PTP>=33 and pp:PTP>=33 and (p:W or p:FL) and rest<=2 and o:rest<=1 and game number<=80 and season>=2013

INDY (spread, win):
HD and rest>=2 and p:PTP>=30 and season>=2013


MEM (under, win):
F and (op:H or op:AW) and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2013


MEM (spread, win):
F and division!=o:division and (op:H or op:AW) and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=185 and total<=215 and season>=2013

[figue]

Too lazy to edit these back down to their wider base scenarios prior to posting for mass consumption here (which is why they all say >=2013 instead of going further back), so no whining about how they're over-filtered from the usual suspects. I obviously know they're over-filtered, thanks, and I have my reasons for doing it my way. Feel free to adjust them to your own tastes similarly:

ATL (spread,loss):
(AD or HF) and p:PTP>=33 and pp:PTP>=33 and (p:W or p:FL) and rest<=2 and o:rest<=1 and game number<=80 and season>=2013

INDY (spread, win):
HD and rest>=2 and p:PTP>=30 and season>=2013


MEM (under, win):
F and (op:H or op:AW) and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2013


MEM (spread, win):
F and division!=o:division and (op:H or op:AW) and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=185 and total<=215 and season>=2013

thanks amigo

[Mako-SBR]

thanks amigo

np buddy, keep up that good research you're doing on finding potential scenarios to feed into SDQL each day, you've found some good ones.

[figue]

mako dont know what is this but look good :

A and P: L and Po: points > 74 and WP >= 40 and WP <= 49 and o: WP > 29 and o: WP < 54 and rest > 0 and season = 2013

17-6-0 (7.39, 73.9%)

avg line: 2.4

its real ??