NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[OLY]

A team whose scored 100+ points in each of their last 6 games over the last two seasons are 50-23 (68.5%) straight up when playing their next game at home. Knicks fall under this tonight

[Noleafclover]

Collected a decent amount of queries from this thread for anyone who wants to copy them down. There will be smilies to translate:

AD and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and ats streak<0 and o:ats streak>0 and on:H and 10<=game number<=60 and season>=2009

(F or AD) and WP>62 and o:WP>35 and P:FL and p:AW and pp:AW and game number>=25

H and line>-6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season>=2011

H and total>205 and p:HL and po:P3-p:P3 + po:P4-p:P4>14 and season>=2010

HD and total>205 and p:ADW and p:line>=4 and rest>0 and season >= 2005

A and P:ats margin <=-10 and P:season=season and P:H and season > 2012

line <=-11 and pooints <=80 and opooints >=110

H and p:margin<-9.5 and op:margin<-9.5 and opp:margin<-9.5 and oppp:margin<-9.5 and opppp:margin<-9.5

H and total>=201 and n:A and p:ADL and pp:ADL and season>=2011

HD and p:AL and P:AL and P:margin<=-30 and rest<=2 and line<8.5

HF and WP>=72 and game number>=25 and p:LF and line<=-9.5 and total>=187.5 and o:rest<3

P:AL and op:margin>10 and p:HW and 65>WP>o:WP and -10<=line<=-5 and H

H and total>199 and 99>tA(ooints)>91 and 103>oA(ooints)>97 and game number > 41 and p:margin>9 and pp:margin>9

rest=0 and p:W and pvertime>0

tS(W, N=10)>=8 and AF and line>=-5 and o:rest=0 and rest>o:rest

tA(ooints)<94 and opoints>100 and oppoints>100 and opppoints>100 and oppppoints>100 and HD and 185

AF and p:HW and pp:HW and p:margin>8 and pp:margin>8 and division!=o:division and line<-4 and season>=2006

P:FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o:WP>=60 and total>=200 and o:rest>0 and season>=2009

F and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

AF and -3<=ats streak<=-1 and 1<=o:ats streak<=2 and 1<= rest<=2 and season>2010

H and 9>=line>=3.5 and tS(L, N=4)=3 and 7-(rest+p:rest+pp:rest+ppp:rest)=5

rest=0 and p:rest=1 and pp:rest=0

H and season > 2009 and line > 5 and p:margin < -15 and op:margin > 5 and p:A and pp:A

-9.5<=line<=-3.5 and tA(points)>=102 and 102>=oA(ooints)>=98 and wins+losses>=42 and points+pooints>=205 and ppoints+ppooints>=205 and pppoints+pppooints>=205 and ppppoints+ppppooints>=205

I like the chances of a team being a bit underrated by bookies, because of recent poor performance:

p:ats margin<0 and 10<=p:line<=13 and 11<=line<=13

Principle mostly the same:

p:L and pp:L and -1<=line<=1 and rest=0 and o:WP<43 and A

Raptors on a back to back off an overtime game.

[JMon]

cool Noleaf, but it would have been a lot cooler if you have gave credit to whom posted each query.

[JAnthony]

Raptors on a back to back off an overtime game.

Yeah, but b2b is a part of the query, and a single OT for an NBA players won't make that much of an impact on the next game, because, let's be honest, those are 5 mins with a lot of time outs usually.

[JMon]

A team whose scored 100+ points in each of their last 6 games over the last two seasons are 50-23 (68.5%) straight up when playing their next game at home. Knicks fall under this tonight

From 2012<=season there were only 4 dogs in this situation. Ave line was -8.2, probably with a -300+ ML. I know at -250, one needs to hit at 71.43% to break even. Your situation at 68.5% SU winners, would be a losing one.

[OLY]

From 2012<=season there were only 4 dogs in this situation. Ave line was -8.2, probably with a -300+ ML. I know at -250, one needs to hit at 71.43% to break even. Your situation at 68.5% SU winners, would be a losing one.

That made it confusing, but- nyk it almost a favorite and nowhere near an 8.5 dog

[parlayin]

Thanks for responding!

Good Qs!

For #1, it's the dps result in that previous game being so much higher than was expected from the team (see the KillerSports dot com NBA SDQL Manual .pdf for more information on dps, or for the lurkers trying to learn, any info about SDQL queries. I'd link it but SBR doesn't allow external links so Google it).

I get that the previous DPS result being higher means they overperformed offensively but that doesn't seem to only include weaker offensive teams, which I think you were going for. Even a top-scoring team like the blazers or clippers might score 15+ over their expected. Maybe we should include a parameter for team average between 92 and 98 or something like that and see if that makes a difference. I'd have to look up how to do that...I know it involves brackets.

For #2, momentum is the general answer, but all of the various permutations you're suggesting can be explored in SDQL itself with a little effort if you're interested. Run a variety of scenarios and report your results back to us, you may improve that query considerably.

Okay, I will try to tinker with it when I have some time. I was just curious if you had a theory for including home/away or won/loss. Since you ran it with previous game on road and next game at home, I didn't understand the logic of limiting it that way. I would think some momentum could be lost if coming back from a road trip as opposed to consecutive home games. But the numbers for each year with your query were very good.

[JMon]

That made it confusing, but- nyk it almost a favorite and nowhere near an 8.5 dog

I'm not sure where you got 8.5 dog out of my reply

[FortySix]

Hey fellas,

Isnt' there a certain SDQL query that someone in here psoted before about a team getting beaten by 25+ points on the road (Lakers @ Spurs) to then covering at home when the line is bigger than -10?

[OLY]

I like the chances of a team being a bit underrated by bookies, because of recent poor performance:

p:ats margin<0 and 10<=p:line<=13 and 11<=line<=13

winner there

A team whose scored 100+ points in each of their last 6 games over the last two seasons are 50-23 (68.5%) straight up when playing their next game at home. Knicks fall under this tonight

winner there

[OLY]

Spurs 4q

Under 31tt -115 pts 2*


Lak 4q

+4.5 -115 1*

[OLY]

Woah my bad thought this was my thread

[figue]

I'm on this one today, but only a half unit as it's a scenario that's overfit and based off of ATS streaks and happens to feature pretty spectacularly shitty teams...all three of which aren't things I like to play on, but it's been winning so why not.

Plus it works for the Under as well as the Spread pick for more action. Can't remember where it came from, looks like a cofaga special though :

AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o: ats streak < 3 and line > = 12 and season>=2006

bucks winner

[Mako-SBR]

Collected a decent amount of queries from this thread for anyone who wants to copy them down. There will be smilies to translate:

AD and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and ats streak<0 and o:ats streak>0 and on:H and 10<=game number<=60 and season>=2009

(F or AD) and WP>62 and o:WP>35 and P:FL and p:AW and pp:AW and game number>=25

H and line>-6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season>=2011

H and total>205 and p:HL and po:P3-p:P3 + po:P4-p:P4>14 and season>=2010

HD and total>205 and p:ADW and p:line>=4 and rest>0 and season >= 2005

A and P:ats margin <=-10 and P:season=season and P:H and season > 2012

line <=-11 and pooints <=80 and opooints >=110

H and p:margin<-9.5 and op:margin<-9.5 and opp:margin<-9.5 and oppp:margin<-9.5 and opppp:margin<-9.5

H and total>=201 and n:A and p:ADL and pp:ADL and season>=2011

HD and p:AL and P:AL and P:margin<=-30 and rest<=2 and line<8.5

HF and WP>=72 and game number>=25 and p:LF and line<=-9.5 and total>=187.5 and o:rest<3

P:AL and op:margin>10 and p:HW and 65>WP>o:WP and -10<=line<=-5 and H

H and total>199 and 99>tA(ooints)>91 and 103>oA(ooints)>97 and game number > 41 and p:margin>9 and pp:margin>9

rest=0 and p:W and pvertime>0

tS(W, N=10)>=8 and AF and line>=-5 and o:rest=0 and rest>o:rest

tA(opints)<94 and opoints>100 and oppoints>100 and opppoints>100 and oppppoints>100 and HD and 185

AF and p:HW and pp:HW and p:margin>8 and pp:margin>8 and division!=o:division and line<-4 and season>=2006

P:FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o:WP>=60 and total>=200 and o:rest>0 and season>=2009

F and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

AF and -3<=ats streak<=-1 and 1<=o:ats streak<=2 and 1<= rest<=2 and season>2010

H and 9>=line>=3.5 and tS(L, N=4)=3 and 7-(rest+p:rest+pp:rest+ppp:rest)=5

rest=0 and p:rest=1 and pp:rest=0

H and season > 2009 and line > 5 and p:margin < -15 and op:margin > 5 and p:A and pp:A

-9.5<=line<=-3.5 and tA(points)>=102 and 102>=oA(ooints)>=98 and wins+losses>=42 and points+pooints>=205 and ppoints+ppooints>=205 and pppoints+pppooints>=205 and ppppoints+ppppooints>=205

Nice, great job Leaf, this will help others who have entered the thread late or are a bit lost have a more complete base to experiment with.

I took out the smilies in them so they're now formatted to be used through cut/paste more easily.

Lot of money in that list...

[Noleafclover]

This one likes the rockets cause the wolves won in overtime last night:

rest=0 and p:W and p: overtime>0

This one likes the wolves to get revenge:

A and P:ats margin <=-10 and P:season=season and P:H and season > 2012

But the revenge is for a 2nd meeting, so it may be rockets have their number. One of the wolves' greatest strength is their rebounding, where the Rockets are also strong. But missing Dwight, the wolves may get their revenge for the first 2. It's a pass for me, but those are the sdqls.

[hyahya]

Here's one for the Thunder:

H and season>2009 and line>5 and p:HL and p:line>5 and p:ats margin>0

Everyone in this thread is probably on the Thunder anyway due to the margin<-15 on the previous meeting in OKC, just figured I'd back it up from another angle.

[hyahya]

Really like the 1st half over with Dwight out and Wolves with heavy legs.

[cofaga]

P:HFL and WP>65 and o:WP<50 and AF and game number>=42 and season>=2005

Revenge play for thunder

[Wojo]

One of the wolves' greatest strength is their rebounding, where the Rockets are also strong. But missing Dwight, the wolves may get their revenge for the first 2. It's a pass for me, but those are the sdqls.

Just fyi, big man Nikola Pekovic is expected to miss tonight for the TWovles.

[b1slickguy]

From a thread created earlier in the season posted by fellow sdql'er, chopperocker.
Good luck.

p:HFL and op:HW and site=home and -10<=t:line<-5 and 20111225<=date

[figue]

From a thread created earlier in the season posted by fellow sdql'er, chopperocker.
Good luck.

p:HFL and op:HW and site=home and -10<=t:line<-5 and 20111225<=date

THIS HAVE BETTER RATE :
p:HFL and op:W and site=home and -10<=t:line<-5 and 20111225<=date

[b1slickguy]

THIS HAVE BETTER RATE :
p:HFL and op:W and site=home and -10<=t:line<-5 and 20111225<=date

My bad, figue. You have it posted in its original form. Thanks, buddy.

[hyahya]

OKC and the under BIG tonight. Also plays on Spurs and over.

[JMon]

OKC and the under BIG tonight. Also plays on Spurs and over.

OKC under

[Mako-SBR]

OKC and the under BIG tonight. Also plays on Spurs and over.

OKC under

Yep, have the same plays. Nice work guys.

[dmitean]

Took Thunder regardless of the trends tonight. Just a big believer in revenge factor and that Thunder didn't rest Westbrook for no reason.

As for the Spurs - many trends do point in their direction - at least those that I, as a newbie could find

BOL!

[JMon]

fukkin ot...just brutal way too lose

[OLY]

Leaning Memphis over Pacers. Any good sdql's for that matchup?


I'll be playing the UNDER in the 76er/Bulls game for a few reasons. This is the 2nd highest total this season in Chicago, the highest total was the when Philly came into Chicago earlier this season. If you regularly bet Bull games, or live near Chicago, you know these games go under. 23-11-0 on the under this season at the United Center. I also like the SQDL that the UNDER is 16-5-0 - over the last three seasons when Chicago AND their opponent are playing on zero days rest. 9-3 on the under when playing at Chicago when both are on zero days rest.


Clippers are 1-8 ATS when playing at home on four days rest in, last 9 scenarios


Happy Friday everyone$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[dmitean]

I like this trend from Killersport:
t:team=Clippers and p:F and p:L and date>=20130206
I know that most of you don't like team situational capping, but interesting that they haven't lost ATS even one game that they won SU.
It's 15 - 4 - 1P ATS wise, but if you look at the game they won, it's 14 - 1P.

[dmitean]

I also like Over in that game:
conference != o:conference and p:LF and p:margin < -9 and season > 2012 and site=home

(slightly adjusted query from Killersport trend:
conference != o:conference and p:LF and p:margin < -9 and season > 2007 and playoffs = 0 )

[JMon]

I like this trend from Killersport:


I know that most of you don't like team situational capping, but interesting that they haven't lost ATS even one game that they won SU.
It's 15 - 4 - 1P ATS wise, but if you look at the game they won, it's 14 - 1P.

mods do not allow links to be posted...so you should edit your post.

[JAnthony]

WP>=60 and o:WP>=60 and 1<=P:margin<=4 and 1<=PP:margin<=4 and A

Revenge spot under in SAS v. GSW game.

[JAnthony]

And since the line for SAS v. GSW game is so short, I really do like this trend for a SU bet (or bought down to -1 or -1.5 points).

A and rest=0 and o:WP>=60 and o:rest>=1 and game number>=42

[comon kryptonite]

thats a big spread...detroit not as bad as other teams....

[b1slickguy]

AD and line<=3 and p:H and p:margin>10 and P:W and season>=2011

This one fares well except in the month of March.
Great example of the quirkiness of trends.
Looking at the other side today.
Good luck.