• NBA Payday •

[DarkEraNYSports]

Bummer man. I had the over. I appreciate your work. Actually learning and studying from your trends.

[tonywayne]

I liked how things got going... did you hit a snag this week?

[Ratzz]

Bummer man. I had the over. I appreciate your work. Actually learning and studying from your trends.

excellent, i try to learn every day, from what i see, what i predict.. hit or miss... i see what works and what doesn't.. thank you Dark Era

I liked how things got going... did you hit a snag this week?

i dropped two decisions in a row, and i put the FULL BRAKES on...

i really think if you miss a two or three-in-a-row.. (i halt at two) then the move is to stop and bring it back in the shop and find the problem...


so i did that.. i brought it out last night and did well in "stealth bets".. (write it down on paper, not just think it)


Physically writing a bet down on paper, or typing it to yourself in a message, is VERY important when conducting experiments. One must create an actual record. The way the gambling mind works, .. is that it is SO easy to think, " i knew that was going to happen".. or "there's another big bet i woulda won"... unless a person writes it down it's just the mind BS'ing.


I say this because unless you write it down, you don't really know what you would have done. The danger with 'gambling mind" is that it multiplies money so quickly, leading the gambler to think that all of this is a piece-of-cake. It's not a piece-of-cake and it never will be.


It does so, in precisely the same manner that a fan thinks their team is much better than they actually are.. (i was speaking to Pats fan last week, and they LITERALLY guaranteed that New England was going to march into Denver and put up 40 pts.) Like that.. that kind of delusion, except with your bank account attached to it.


Gambling-mind is such, that you cannot believe what you think, or think what you are seeing. To accurately gauge how good a system or method is, you must to write everything down. Then and only then will you know if you are onto something real or not.* (After you add or subtract up all the money).


Anyways.. so, Wednesday was a mixed bag, and then last night (Thursday Night TNT) i made the picks (both 1H's) and they both came in pretty easy, (covered by more than three buckets) so i feel like my adjustments worked and comfortable again, posting. Which i will do again tonite.


cheers to both of you, ®

[tonywayne]

I agree completely on "write it down". I have been writing down picks since October - weekly for NFL & NCAA FB, daily for NHL & NBA. I've been looking for my own system. I would say I'm around 55% or so on my actual betting (using my picks), which I know is above the 52.5% you need to make money, but well below the 57's, 60's, and 63's that some professional handicappers are able to achieve. So, I continue to refine things as well, just like you're saying...

One thing I've noticed - if you are going to rely on any stats to inform your picks, it has to be game stats, not gambling stats. What that means is that "Team X is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 home games" is completely and totally meaningless. It's confirmation bias using "stats" that aren't even within a team's control. Because teams aren't "playing against the spread", meaning they aren't actually competing against the Vegas numbers, so any patterns are going to be something the handicapper conjures out of thin air.

An easy way to confirm that: notice how many pro cappers will say something like "We're on an incredible 36-4 streak in games where the home team is a 5-8 point underdog after scoring 90 or fewer points in a double-digit loss where they had been favored by at least 9 points since 1997" (note: that is a completely made up sentence). As if ANY of that has any possible bearing on the outcome of the game in question. But said capper is CONVINCED his "system" works and will be totally dumbfounded when he loses the next 9 such occasions.

[Ratzz]

*Jan 24th

19) ORL___–1.5___1ST HALF* vs. lakers

20) TOR/PHI___Under 103.5___1ST HALF*

21) ATL___+2.5___1ST HALF* vs. sas

22) DAL___+1___1ST HALF* vs. bkn


GL my brothers

[Trep]

Glad to see you back. Let's do this =)

[MrCoso]

Wow Ratzz unfortunally it looks like you will prob go 1/4 og 0/4

[Ratzz]

i have to take it down again... 1-3 does not work, same methods last night worked perfectly..will go back and compare.. my apologies to all, ®

[Ratzz]

i meant 0-4. apologies

[Trep]

Ouch...really painful picks as I went higher units today. Thanks for the picks anyways though. Let's see what the revision brings us to later.

[JAnthony]

I agree completely on "write it down". I have been writing down picks since October - weekly for NFL & NCAA FB, daily for NHL & NBA. I've been looking for my own system. I would say I'm around 55% or so on my actual betting (using my picks), which I know is above the 52.5% you need to make money, but well below the 57's, 60's, and 63's that some professional handicappers are able to achieve. So, I continue to refine things as well, just like you're saying...

One thing I've noticed - if you are going to rely on any stats to inform your picks, it has to be game stats, not gambling stats. What that means is that "Team X is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 home games" is completely and totally meaningless. It's confirmation bias using "stats" that aren't even within a team's control. Because teams aren't "playing against the spread", meaning they aren't actually competing against the Vegas numbers, so any patterns are going to be something the handicapper conjures out of thin air.

An easy way to confirm that: notice how many pro cappers will say something like "We're on an incredible 36-4 streak in games where the home team is a 5-8 point underdog after scoring 90 or fewer points in a double-digit loss where they had been favored by at least 9 points since 1997" (note: that is a completely made up sentence). As if ANY of that has any possible bearing on the outcome of the game in question. But said capper is CONVINCED his "system" works and will be totally dumbfounded when he loses the next 9 such occasions.

Finally, some wise words here on SBR. Because I've been sick and tired reading some pointless made up analysis just like one you described in paragraph 3. These "SBR pros" are doing this stuff night in and night out at first it was hilarious, but now it's just getting sad.

[tonywayne]

Finally, some wise words here on SBR. Because I've been sick and tired reading some pointless made up analysis just like one you described in paragraph 3. These "SBR pros" are doing this stuff night in and night out at first it was hilarious, but now it's just getting sad.

It's not just here on SBR. It's everywhere. The ones that especially make me laugh are the ones that have a sample of maybe 20, 30, or even 50 games... but it's over 10+ years. I seriously doubt it's a system that they've actively bet for all that time. It's simply them looking back over time for a pattern, and when they find it, they use it to justify the pick they already wanted to make.

Hey Ratzz - what sorts of things do you pay more or less attention to when evaluating picks/odds? Or what do you think of what we're saying here about confirmation bias when it comes to "gambling stats"?

[JAnthony]

It's not just here on SBR. It's everywhere. The ones that especially make me laugh are the ones that have a sample of maybe 20, 30, or even 50 games... but it's over 10+ years. I seriously doubt it's a system that they've actively bet for all that time. It's simply them looking back over time for a pattern, and when they find it, they use it to justify the pick they already wanted to make.

Hey Ratzz - what sorts of things do you pay more or less attention to when evaluating picks/odds? Or what do you think of what we're saying here about confirmation bias when it comes to "gambling stats"?

It really grinds my gears, when people use such trends (even the basic ones - ats and o/u trends), which from logics stand point are absolutely worthless as a 'data' to use for the analysis. This is the thing that generates 99% of those losers in gambling, since most of people think that capping a game is nothing more than looking at some past events and trends.

My second favourite thing is when people compare H2H stats within a 5+ year period, that is so ridiculous since a lot of player and coach changes happen during that time.

[Ratzz]

wrong date, see next post

[Trep]

Would you take this at -2?

[Ratzz]

Jan 26th



23) GSW___–1.5___1ST QTR**vs. portland


ok, guys... i went into it in depth last night, to find what information i found so misleading before.
I wanted to see if my adjustments could accurately*read the events that would unfold in the early games today.


Thankfully the results were favorable.. tried them in the 6PM games and they worked again.
(i hope they were not one of those cursed misleading lucky steaks).*


Yes, a lucky streak briefly wins money, but it's not REAL progress, because it usually leads one to believe that*
the water is completely safe.. and well you know the rest.


i am going with the Warriors in the 1Q. (listed above)




ps> Early games were stealth bets, (physically wrote picks and units down but did not place them)*
i never bet actual money after*dropping two bets in a row. I will wager this one, but only modest one at that.
Still testing the water for 'gators.


cheers, ®

[Ratzz]

Would you take this at -2?

it would be a PUSH.. so i guess okay.. no risk of loss,*

if it was (–1) and you asked me if (–1.5) looked okay, i would direct you*
to look around for a better number..

because then that Half Point might yield a loss... if they only scored a single point more,
as it stands, they still must score 2 more points to win*

GL to you..

[No coincidences]

Jan 26th



23) GSW___–1.5___1ST QTR**vs. portland


ok, guys... i went into it in depth last night, to find what information i found so misleading before.
I wanted to see if my adjustments could accurately*read the events that would unfold in the early games today.


Thankfully the results were favorable.. tried them in the 6PM games and they worked again.
(i hope they were not one of those cursed misleading lucky steaks).*


Yes, a lucky streak briefly wins money, but it's not REAL progress, because it usually leads one to believe that*
the water is completely safe.. and well you know the rest.


i am going with the Warriors in the 1Q. (listed above)




ps> Early games were stealth bets, (physically wrote picks and units down but did not place them)*
i never bet actual money after*dropping two bets in a row. I will wager this one, but only modest one at that.
Still testing the water for 'gators.


cheers, ®

Do you want to know what's "wrong" with your capping?

It's not you, it's the NBA. The league is a farce. Look at Cleveland tonight. You can't cap the combination of stupidity and apathy.

[Ratzz]

Do you want to know what's "wrong" with your capping?It's not you, it's the NBA. The league is a farce. Look at Cleveland tonight. You can't cap the combination of stupidity and apathy.

lol... UNREAL.. looking at the boxscore is crazy... sandwiched between a 32 pt. Qtr. and a 23 pt. Qtr.. is just 6 PTS in the 3rd... wtf...

[Trep]

^LOL...or OKC sitting their whole starting 5 at the start of the 4th only down like 10-12? (this was 2 weeks ago I forget against who, but this was just ridiculous)

Anyhow. Great comeback hit! Wish I put more on it. Just really hurt as I upped my units for the 0-4 day ;P Regardless, green is better than red any day!

[Ratzz]

Jan 26th

23) GSW___–1.5___1ST QTR**vs. portland*(W)

what a relief.. but looks like adjustments worked.. they went 4-0
three stealth, and one real

let's see what's up tomorrow*

[Ratzz]

^LOL...or OKC sitting their whole starting 5 at the start of the 4th only down like 10-12? (this was 2 weeks ago I forget against who, but this was just ridiculous)

Anyhow. Great comeback hit! Wish I put more on it. Just really hurt as I upped my units for the 0-4 day ;P Regardless, green is better than red any day!

i am so sorry about that Trep, it happened to me as well.
i think adjustments look good. I will endeavor to make that up to you soon.

cheers, ®

[tonywayne]

Just to share some REALLY funny confirmation bias I read today: this is from a Duke v Pittsburgh analysis...

"Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a blowout victory in conference play of 20 points or more has resulted in a 32-11 ATS record since 1997 if they're up against a team that is coming off a road game where both it and its opponent scored 75 points or more."

Talk about reaching! How does ANYTHING from 1997 matter in college basketball? Wow...

[Ratzz]

Jan 27th

24) CHI___+1___1ST QTR**vs. minnesota

[Trep]

I'd be more than happy for you to make it up, but you really don't owe me anything =P

Missed again....think Noah going out sickness really hurt.

[Ratzz]

Jan 28th

25) CLE___–0.5___1ST QTR**vs. new orleans

[tonywayne]

Jan 28th

25) CLE___–0.5___1ST QTR**vs. new orleans

Alright! Let's do it!

[Ratzz]

typo

[Ratzz]

Jan 28th


26)*ORL___+2___1ST QTR** @ detroit
27)*BOS/NYK___Under (48.5)___1ST QTR

[Trep]

Bam. Good start =) Glad they maintained the lead...thought NO was coming back. Good thing this is only a 1Q =P

[Ratzz]

Jan 28th


28) SAS___–0.5___1ST QTR*@ HOUSTON

[Trep]

3-0! =) Missed the Spurs bet. Was typing in password to confirm bet and it tipped ;( BOL!

[16johnnymac]

You da Man !! Nice work!!

Jmac

[Ratzz]

it looks like i may have finally found the problem... to me it was like a clogged drain...
i was struggling to find this answer, as to how to read the stat sheets, and there is SO MUCH conflicting data...

but after pick (26), i hit the books and stayed up late. It looks like we may be in the clear, gentlemen.

i hope so.*

[Ratzz]

Bam. Good start =) Glad they maintained the lead...thought NO was coming back. Good thing this is only a 1Q =P

You da Man !! Nice work!!

Jmac

thank you + thank you

i am thinking.. we can hook a couple more fish before the night is through *