CK's Leans for Tuesday 2/10/09

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    CK's Leans for Tuesday 2/10/09
    Basically, I am fading the winner (Lakers) of the nationally televised game between the Cavs and the Lakers and then playing the loser (Cleveland).

    Oklahoma City is playing great basketball these days and they are catching the Lakers in a good spot as the return home from a long but successful east coast trip going 6-0 straight up. In what looks on paper to be a complete mismatch, the Lakers will win this game tonight in all likelihood, it's just a matter of by how much. The Thunder are horrid on the road to be true, but the number in this game is too high and the sharps took great notice of this pounding the Thunder until the line went dow from an opening line of 14 down to the current 11.5, despite 74% of the public's money riding on the Lakers. The Thunder are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 trips to play the Lakers, but theyhave covered the number an astonishing 3-1-1 ats, with averge lines of 11, an losses by an average of 8.75 or 9 basically. The line for this game was too inflated and the linemaker is trying to quickly make amends for his mistake. I played this game at OKC+13. Don't bother to look at the matcups for this game as the Lakers obviously have superior talent. They are just in a bad spot to get the job done with the time zone change and the fact that they have only had one day to get used to pacific standard tme and to deal with all of the things involved after being on the road for such a long time. Needless to say they will not take the Thunder seriously as it is a step down in the level of competition that they have faced recently. I'm taking the big number and playing

    Oklahoma City +13 BIG


    Cleveland avenges their losses unlike any team in the NBA this year, to the tune of 17.5 victory margin, and since they are playing Indiana, I look fo this streak to continue. The Pacers lack a true center and low post presence of any kind. Look for Cleveland to dominate the in the paint and shoot a high field goal percentage. Cleveland beats Indiana by average margins of 7.5 in games in Indiana over the last five going 4-1 straight up and 3-1-1 ats. With the bad loss to the Lakers on national television in thier last game, Cleveland will look to exploit the weaknesses of Indiana and embarrass them on their home floor. The injury list for the Pacers and the Cavs looks like a M.A.S.H. incoming load. However, Clevland's injuries are less significant as they have found wys to replace the production of their injured players. Indianon the other hnd is already depleted along their front lin and not having Foster available for this game will be a horrendous occurance if he doesn't play as he is their best rebounder. Defensively the Cavs who are first in defense in the NBA give up only 90.9 points per game and the Pacers (third from last in the league in defense) allow 107.1 which makes for a whopping 16.2 differential right there.

    Any way you slice it, the Cavs just have the Pacers number. This game might get real ugly by the end of the third quarter.

    Cleveland has led by an average of 5.5 points after the 1st quarter in games in Indiana and over the last 2 straight up wins there. So I may end up doing a first quarter wager too.

    Cleveland-5.5 (Buying a hook to get under the key number) BIG

    College Basketball Loyola Chicago +4.5


    anthonydiamondsLC Week (Carlotte was nice)

    1-1-0

    anthonydiamondsLC Plays

    Toronto-3

    Villanova-2.5 (1st half)

    Secret Play-O-Meter

    33-12-0
  • BrandonLaz
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-18-08
    • 855

    #2
    Hey CK I know we aren't in the college basketball threads anymore would you mind still posting your Secret Plays on here though. I am on bookmaker and they do not offer moneylines so I can not tell for sure which games are a true Secret Play or not. Cleveland is a solid play tomorrow I can not wait to pounce on it as well.
    Comment
    • Dexter
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-24-08
      • 25829

      #3
      the cavs are 9-0 su/ats this year off a loss - i dont even need to look at anything. else. projected line -6.5

      -cavs (big)
      ________________
      the lakers will be coming back to LA - first home game after a long/undefeated 6 game road trip. perfect spot for a letwdown after wins vs bos/cleav - the thunder are 32-19 ats this year, and have historically done very well ats in la (4-1 ats last 5).

      -thunder
      ___________________
      *the bulls will also be first home game after a long 7 game west coast trip - i dont trust the pistons - chi is playing good ball right now. no play.

      *the spurs are coming off a win vs boston - no boston hex play for me with historical trends in spurs favor big time. pop should have them ready to go into the break on a high note. no play.

      *nice to see ck on the same 2 plays
      Comment
      • cs11787
        SBR MVP
        • 08-26-08
        • 1088

        #4
        CK,
        Is Minnesota gonna be a secret play tomorrow?
        Comment
        • BelieveTheHype
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 01-03-09
          • 747

          #5
          i'm liking the t-wolves/toronto under

          no al jefferson and no bosh
          Comment
          • cnleaf
            Restricted User
            • 11-08-08
            • 346

            #6
            Is "beat the champ" hex going to work today with NJ? But history of these two teams doesnt seem too good to take NJ.
            Comment
            • peetlui
              SBR Sharp
              • 01-12-09
              • 469

              #7
              Originally posted by BrandonLaz
              Hey CK I know we aren't in the college basketball threads anymore would you mind still posting your Secret Plays on here though. I am on bookmaker and they do not offer moneylines so I can not tell for sure which games are a true Secret Play or not. Cleveland is a solid play tomorrow I can not wait to pounce on it as well.

              Brandon just go to The Greek to get the lines. No subscription necessary.
              Comment
              • Dexter
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 12-24-08
                • 25829

                #8
                Originally posted by cs11787
                CK,
                Is Minnesota gonna be a secret play tomorrow?
                go to the greek.com - the game would have no first half moneyline.

                all games have first half moneylines, so it doesnt appear there are any splays tomorrow.
                Comment
                • SamsNCharge99
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-22-08
                  • 41242

                  #9

                  Comment
                  • pho3nix32
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-09-09
                    • 1465

                    #10
                    We gave one to the books today guys. Let's try to get back on the winning track tomorrow:

                    line: sas@njn+5
                    pick: sas-5

                    Supporting trends:

                    - Spurs are 14-9 ATS on the road this season.
                    - Spurs are 11-5 ATS after a non-conference game this season.
                    - Spurs are 15-6 ATS against poor defensive teams this season.
                    - Nets are only 11-15 ATS at home this season.
                    - Head to head, Spurs are 3-1 ATS against the Nets in the past 3 seasons.
                    - Head to head, Spurs are 2-0 ATS against the Nets in New Jersey in the past 3 seasons.

                    Both teams have been hot ATS recently but i'm putting my money on the trifecta of Parker, Manu and the Big Fundamental. Coming off an exciting win over Boston, the Spurs will be oozing with confidence and rip the weak lineup of the Nets apart. Add to the fact that the Nets play poorly at home and Vinsanity may not be playing 100%, expect the Spurs to put this game away even before you can say "ka-ching!!!"!
                    Comment
                    • cs11787
                      SBR MVP
                      • 08-26-08
                      • 1088

                      #11
                      Gotcha. I was wondering where I could find lines for tomorrow. Thanks Dex.
                      Comment
                      • texhooper
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 01-05-09
                        • 10001

                        #12
                        i do not like the nets tomorrow and the spurs are not a beat the champ hex team. just like the lakers or the cavs when they played an inferior opponent in their next outing. spurs -5. also, they have owned new jersey unlike any other team has owned any other team on their home court that i have seen thus far.

                        i too like cleveland (you can't in your right mind ignore the off-an-ats-loss trend until it fails you), and okc (i'm getting tired of betting against the lakers and losing, but the first game back from a (long, long) very successful road trip is in effect, so i will take my chances yet again on them letting their backers down.)

                        also, warriors...warriors...warriors...yes, i like the warriors. line has already moved from -4 to -4.5. get it while it's hot kids. the knicks stink on the road, and the warriors are playing like they're going to snag the 8th spot in the playoffs when they're at home these days. also, wouldn't this be a winner-of-bet-'a' fade on the knicks? (ck, you did say you make it a practice to fade a team in this situation, right? did i dream this? either way, it doesn't matter, only strengthens my lean, like finding out there's rlm). beidrins, no biedrins...i'm riding them when the situation looks favorable until they show me that not having biedrins holds them back enough to not cover/win games. turiaf is having a hell of a season...i don't mind him starting.
                        Comment
                        • texhooper
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-05-09
                          • 10001

                          #13
                          hey pho3nix!!!!!! spurs -5, hell yeah, man!!!!

                          let's get it back today!!!
                          Comment
                          • pho3nix32
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-09-09
                            • 1465

                            #14
                            Originally posted by texhooper
                            hey pho3nix!!!!!! spurs -5, hell yeah, man!!!!

                            let's get it back today!!!
                            best of luck to us all bro!
                            Comment
                            • jaymac82980
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-08-09
                              • 3416

                              #15
                              ok pho3nix32. i liked the spurs....nonsense and tex just talked me more into them, and you just pushed me over the line. Your loss tonight was a fluke. that clippers over looked soooooo good. Even I jumped on it. tough loss. We're winning tonight! let's do it Stewie.
                              Comment
                              • nonsense48
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-15-08
                                • 2927

                                #16
                                i wonder why are they not putting out a line on the cle/ind or was/atl games yet?
                                Comment
                                • jaymac82980
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-08-09
                                  • 3416

                                  #17
                                  non, i have been thinking the same thing. im about to give up
                                  Comment
                                  • jaymac82980
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-08-09
                                    • 3416

                                    #18
                                    but i tell you what, the more i look into the lakers game, the more i like the over. especially considering the thought that OKC will keep it closer than the spread. that to me means over. The lakers will score, and OKC will keep up - they probably wont win, but I see them keeping it close...and to repeat myself, that means points.
                                    Comment
                                    • nonsense48
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-15-08
                                      • 2927

                                      #19
                                      jay, i think you're right. i'm playing the over if i play the game at all as the lakeshow has burnt my money trying to cover DD spreads
                                      Comment
                                      • anthonydiamondLC
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-02-08
                                        • 2296

                                        #20
                                        CK, book Toronto -3 for me.
                                        Comment
                                        • nonsense48
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-15-08
                                          • 2927

                                          #21
                                          so it's okc+13 and over but not la at all. if i bet it at all it will be the over
                                          Comment
                                          • nonsense48
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-15-08
                                            • 2927

                                            #22
                                            i guess i'll have to wait til morning for the cle/ind spread. i need to turn in and get some sleep. good nite and good luck everyone
                                            Comment
                                            • lambogb
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 01-06-09
                                              • 278

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by cocknocker

                                              Cleveland has led by an average of 5.5 points after the 1st quarter in games in Indiana and over the last 2 straight up wins there. So I may end up doing a first quarter wager too.

                                              I will comeback and do a write up later on

                                              looking forward to this writeup CK

                                              i have $22 left and i want to put it all on the craptors buying 3 points (JM bet C)..

                                              but id LOVE to build this up before that game starts... was lookin into wiz 1Q but i feel ALOT safer on the cavs 1Q.. and the over sounds good too

                                              Comment
                                              • img
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 01-03-09
                                                • 10

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by lambogb
                                                looking forward to this writeup CK

                                                i have $22 left and i want to put it all on the craptors buying 3 points (JM bet C)..

                                                but id LOVE to build this up before that game starts... was lookin into wiz 1Q but i feel ALOT safer on the cavs 1Q.. and the over sounds good too

                                                play at your own risk but it is not a JM play. any team that is out with a 15 ppg player (bosh) is a no play. i know this forum does not like to promote this system so lets leave it at that. good luck on whoever you play though.
                                                Comment
                                                • lambogb
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 01-06-09
                                                  • 278

                                                  #25
                                                  oh good point i forgot about that rule
                                                  im gonna bank on jeffersons ACL injury evening things out
                                                  Comment
                                                  • woodyman
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 12-27-08
                                                    • 389

                                                    #26
                                                    John Morrison suggested to play Toronto according to his emails! He is saying that this is a C bet
                                                    Comment
                                                    • haserfauld
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 12-12-08
                                                      • 957

                                                      #27
                                                      What do you guys think about pavlovic being out for the cavs? does it matter?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • peterpan19
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-02-08
                                                        • 3377

                                                        #28
                                                        haserfauld
                                                        well I hope that the line might open up a little bit lower than expected, I know for sure that I will pound it as soon as it comes out
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Tennispro
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-13-09
                                                          • 512

                                                          #29
                                                          My plays :

                                                          Oklahoma City Thunder +13
                                                          Toronto Raptors -3 (small)
                                                          New York Knicks +4
                                                          Sacramento Kings +12
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Ludovike
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 12-28-08
                                                            • 35

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Dexter
                                                            the cavs are 10-0 su/ats this year off a loss - i dont even need to look at anything. else. projected line -6.5
                                                            sorry dexter, I guess the cavs will be 10-0 su/ats off a loss only once they've finished the pacers - 10th loss just happened.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • SlowRoll
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 02-04-09
                                                              • 203

                                                              #31
                                                              GSW: - 2.5
                                                              SAN: - 3.5
                                                              TOR: -under


                                                              So far today, prob. have to take the Cavs on the spread as well.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • NBA Hero
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-05-08
                                                                • 1886

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by haserfauld
                                                                What do you guys think about pavlovic being out for the cavs? does it matter?
                                                                pavlovich is their best guard after mo and LJ.
                                                                they had probs with their rotation. that means rookie hickson and wally ,who cant jump anymore, has to play more.

                                                                but they should be able to adjust on their rest day with the absence of pav
                                                                Comment
                                                                • oBaMa_MaNiA
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-20-09
                                                                  • 1067

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I'm going Cavs a regular play and Chitown a small play.

                                                                  I will post a write up later!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • hockeytown11
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-04-09
                                                                    • 1102

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I have no clue why sbr keepsblocking me from access,someone sent me a link to get in and it worked. so whoever that was,thanks
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • grappler145
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 01-27-09
                                                                      • 187

                                                                      #35
                                                                      HOCKEYTOWN, try clearing your internet explorer cache (like your browsing history and cookies) GL
                                                                      Comment
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