CK's Leans for Tuesday 2/10/09

mixpicks · 02-10-09, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by ANDYW15

Booked plays for me

The association

Cavs -5.5
Spurs -5
Okc +12
Raps -2.5

My puck plays for today -

LA Kings ML -145
Redwings PL +160
CBJ/Avs over 5.5. -110

Now That Really Looks Like An EXCELLENT NBA CARD!
IMO, I just think, you could have maybe shopped or buy and got better #### (Lines) ex. raps m/l is Only 133 Okc was 13.5 IMO buy to 15 spurs @ 5 is good cavs worries me, but those stats for them is unreal, but 3.5 seems better, and or cavs 1st "Q" eitherway Nice Card SHould Be Profitable, but esp with the NHL plays That A lot Of Games for one night.

repski · 02-10-09, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by anthonydiamondLC

Toronto is the play tonight! No Al Jeffereson for the rest of the year kills the twolves.

not that I'm against you...but no Bosh for TOR either....makes it a tough play for me either way...

peterpan19 · 02-10-09, 04:05 PM

1st qtr plays for today (0.5 each):
Cavs -2
Nuggets -0.5 (waiting for maybe a pk here until gametime)
Pistons +0.5
Knicks +1

RoagBettor · 02-10-09, 04:06 PM

My plays for tonight; I bought 2 pts on each bet:

OKC +16
GS -1
GS/NY under 234

Kentucky -2.5
Boston College - +5.5

hockeytown11 · 02-10-09, 04:18 PM

Andy the Wings never play well in Nashville,I couldnt lay 1.5 if it was plus 250,Ive seen the crowd in Nashville for Wings game(been there the last 3 years,Wings lost all 3) the Wings are the ONLY game fans in Nashville care about. I can easily see Preds winning tonight.

Luv2Poker · 02-10-09, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by BelieveTheHype

plays so far

tor/min under 196
sac +14
okc +14
san antonio -3

Where are u getting ur lines?

BelieveTheHype · 02-10-09, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by Luv2Poker

Where are u getting ur lines?

i bought 2 points on all of them

mostly i play at casino sportsbooks.. but online i use thegreek

Dexter · 02-10-09, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

But getting back to the point, the Sportsinsights is not being all the way honest about where the line started to where it has ended up. The line jumped over a key number to meaning te Cavs mst win by 8 now. Any move over or under a key number is substantial becuase it either subtracts or adds two points onto the spread basically.

well, ive read numerous articles that have mentioned 7 becoming a very popular new landing number for game finals. reason being, teams prettymuch give up fouling late once down by 3 possesions.

so if i were buying points, this would be an example where buying the pacers up to 7.5 would make sense if you were on indy

nonsense48 · 02-10-09, 04:30 PM

added booked cle-2 1st Q nickle

Dexter · 02-10-09, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Yeah Dex,
A late break for a home dog to become a lesser underdog with a smaller percentage of bettors on their side is the one exception. A prohibitive favorite should have a steady upward line increase to correspond with the amount of bettors on their side. The sharps don't wait for line movement. They make the line move. The sharps play early when they see an off line, but they are running on contact when the sportsbooks give the Wise Guys their moment of grace.

how would that be an exception? if the home dog is only at say 20%, and the line (which was going up all day following the public) drops from say 6 to 5 before tip-off....isnt that RLM? or does RLM just happen at the opening line?

hockeytown11 · 02-10-09, 04:36 PM

non,i saw u played 2 of my hockey games but i listed 3,i didnt see u on the columbus pick,just wanted to make sure u saw all 3

shoebox · 02-10-09, 04:39 PM

shoebox · 02-10-09, 04:41 PM

heres me and the lady sitting pretty much courtside while I was in Denver for work.
Browsing through pictures and thought id post it for good luck today!

In King James we trust!!!

nonsense48 · 02-10-09, 04:41 PM

hockey i missed that one and i'm at my daily limit so i just have to go with the 2 overs. actually i went a little over my limit. shame on me. i apologize to the GAMBLING GODS.

cs11787 · 02-10-09, 04:41 PM

Are we going to have a writeup for the Toronto pick???

hockeytown11 · 02-10-09, 04:43 PM

non,thats the one i liked the most too,doh!

nonsense48 · 02-10-09, 04:47 PM

oh no hock, i missed that part. lol

nonsense48 · 02-10-09, 04:49 PM

hock, what is the col play? i guess i can sneak another hun for it

nonsense48 · 02-10-09, 04:51 PM

col-1.5 is +200 greek

hockeytown11 · 02-10-09, 04:52 PM

columbus money linela kings over and detroit over are the 3 i rolled with in pucks

hockeytown11 · 02-10-09, 04:53 PM

i personaly hate laying 1.5 in hockey as a TON of games are decided by 1 goal

cocknocker · 02-10-09, 04:54 PM

Adding in a play on Loyola Chicago+4.5

Karayilan9 · 02-10-09, 04:56 PM

Achiles
i bet oklahoma city at +13, anyone know wher i can get +15???? did you actually make this bet carlo, or are you just posting plays,because no one has +15

You can get it straight up without buying any points on Betfair. Cleveland 1st QTR is -1.5 aswell.

nonsense48 · 02-10-09, 04:57 PM

ok hock, thanks i got it. i'm new at this hockey chit. it's odd to me to lay 145.00 to win a 100.00. you know i'm used to only 5-10% vig

wangichu · 02-10-09, 05:00 PM

first one is an easy explanation... thunder are a great cover team... i love the point someone made about them being 11-1 ATS for spreads of 11+... i remember them doing the same thing to the magic, so i love them here with the lakers first game home off an amazingly successful roady.

OKC +12.5

i expected denver to come out as a 3 or 4 point favorite here, but given the way that miami was favored by one, even as the public loved the nuggets on a bounce back, the ensuing cave in spread tells me that i was right to expect a W for miami. Now with the book giving me a point, i have to take miami to slap the nuggies around and get d-wade the revenge he so craves. Denver could hardly put miami away in denver, now the heat rookie squad can be allowed to do their thing with a little more support coming from the home crowd. nuggets have done pretty well in this series over the last few years, but this is d-wade's best supporting cast since the championship days with the diesel. Public is a little too excited about denver here, i'll be fading them on MIA.

MIA +1

I could be off, but i've had a pretty good beat on golden state games. They seem to play contenders VERY tough at home, covering when given points as their jump shooting style can keep them close enough to cover and or win the big games at home. Conversely, when another jump shooting team comes to town, the warriors lose any stylistic edge and can easily get out shot or at least struggle to put the other team away, due to mediocre perimeter defense at best. Now with biedrins out, they'll have trouble getting quite as many boards and will forfeit any size advantage to the knicks who are VERY desparate for a win after getting run around in the garden by the games top 3 teams. Examples of the out jump shoot GS phenomenom:

MEM L 104 - 109 (-7.5)
CHI L 110 - 115 (-3.5)
SAC L 133-135 (-5)
OKC L 121 - 122 (-5.5)

these are the best examples of games that I'm considering. The only one i didn't hit up was memphis. Point being...

NYK +4/ML

still researching, but i'm committed to these games so far.

2-1 yesterday... 9-4 since saturday

nonsense48 · 02-10-09, 05:00 PM

when i see 45% vig my mind goes "WHAT THE _ _ _ _?" you can fill in the blank

cocknocker · 02-10-09, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by cs11787

Are we going to have a writeup for the Toronto pick???

I'm tailing anthonydiamondLC's pick on that one. He would have to be the one toprovide the write up for that pick..

csimmalavong · 02-10-09, 05:02 PM

is san antonio the trap bet of the night ?

ANDYW15 · 02-10-09, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by mixpicks

Now That Really Looks Like An EXCELLENT NBA CARD!
IMO, I just think, you could have maybe shopped or buy and got better #### (Lines) ex. raps m/l is Only 133 Okc was 13.5 IMO buy to 15 spurs @ 5 is good cavs worries me, but those stats for them is unreal, but 3.5 seems better, and or cavs 1st "Q" eitherway Nice Card SHould Be Profitable, but esp with the NHL plays That A lot Of Games for one night.

Thanks for the feedback, the number of plays for me varies day to day. Today I felt there were strong games on the board which were too good to pass up.

ANDYW15 · 02-10-09, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by hockeytown11

Andy the Wings never play well in Nashville,I couldnt lay 1.5 if it was plus 250,Ive seen the crowd in Nashville for Wings game(been there the last 3 years,Wings lost all 3) the Wings are the ONLY game fans in Nashville care about. I can easily see Preds winning tonight.

ouch why weren't you around earlier. I was aware of the losses but your info might have made me think differently. I know what you mean about laying the -1.5 but I have had some success with it. Maybe tonight was not the right game given what you say. GL with your plays

CUAIrish · 02-10-09, 05:11 PM

Cavs
Lakers
SA
DEN
DET

schaapattack · 02-10-09, 05:17 PM

I like New york ML

anthonydiamondLC · 02-10-09, 05:18 PM

For the Toronto game I'm following early line movement and the Al Jefferson being out factor.

nonsense48 · 02-10-09, 05:21 PM

irish, i like all of your plays except the lakers

FranklyMrShankly · 02-10-09, 05:21 PM

Hi Hockeytown - Great call on the over last night . Thanks

On tonights picks - do you feel as strongly about any of these?
Could you put them in any order of pref?

FMS

Originally posted by hockeytown11

non,i saw u played 2 of my hockey games but i listed 3,i didnt see u on the columbus pick,just wanted to make sure u saw all 3