I hear you guys talk of RLM all the time,but at least it seems lately that the RLM team loses. Anyone have winning percentages of thses types of plays? Wasnt there RLM on Cleveland yesterday?
-
Comment -
Just some RLM info and past performance using RLM as a wagering method.
HERE IT IS HOCKEYTOWN.
Every week, regardless of the sport, head-scratching upsets take place that have bettors cursing the heavens and crying foul while ripping up there tickets.
For example, how could the lowly Miami Dolphins of the NFL beat a San Diego Chargers team than many predicted to go to the Super Bowl outright? Or how could a terrible Michigan football team upset a Wisconsin club that was expected to challenge for the Big Ten title?
Well, both of these games had something in common that shrewd bettors could have used to their advantage, and that could have made these upsets both expected and profitable. Welcome to the world of reverse line movement.
Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. For example, in the two cases above, at least 75 percent of all bets were placed on the Chargers and Wisconsin respectively. Yet, the Chargers line dropped from an opener of -7 to a closing line of -5½, while Wisconsin fell from -6½ to -5. You all now know what transpired on the field on each occasion.
So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run.
To back this up, our friends over at Sports Insights have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number to the close at the top books in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. As you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.
At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point
League W L P Pct Units
NFL 2008 18 13 1 58.1% 2.83
NFL 2007 155 130 9 54.4% 18.62
NCAAF 2008 137 106 8 56.4% 17.51
NCAAF 2007 227 156 4 59.3% 49.49
NBA 2007-8 221 182 6 54.8% 18.89
NCAAB 2007-8 272 203 11 57.3% 42.04
Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number to the close at the top books in MLB and NHL has also been profitable. Again, these records are for money lines only and do not include totals.
At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Money Line Move of at least 10 cents
League W L P Pct Units
MLB 2008 518 600 0 46.3% 131.98
NHL 2008-9 1 0 0 100.0% 0.95
NHL 2007-8 224 229 0 49.4% 85.69
Obviously, this approach produces a lot of underdog money line plays, as you can see by comparing the winning percentages in MLB and NHL with the units won. However, one cannot quibble with the results, and dare we say, this is an approach that makes money in the long run without doing any handicapping.Last edited by schaapattack; 02-09-09, 12:25 PM.Comment -
Thanks Shoebox! Haven't followed the NBA for years but enjoying the tourney. Too small for me to think I know what I'm doing, but it's got my attention that maybe I might be able to make a few bucks if I put some time into it? Follow CBB more but can't trust guys you don't pay, (ahead in $, just thought I be doing alot better!)Congrats to everyone above 54%, this is all you need to make good money long term. This is just a sample size but a great opportunity for all the first timers to take into consideration. I think my guy "alittlemoresound" has conceded so I will not post any more pic till the next round.
GL everyone I need some winners today!!!
Ill be in Oklahoma City next week so if there is anything to do besides bricktown let me know for anyone that resides there.
IMO CK's thread is almost like a mini forum itself. It's like going to one store to buy everything instead of wasting time traveling all over the place. Don't post much, don't want to look stupid not knowing the NBA.
Well my 2 cents, 36,35,36 ages of Hill, Nash, O'Neil, it's a who's who starting linup but last 4 games (except Det) were with teams that like to run with them. Sixers love to move it and alot younger. Miller will guard Nash tonight alot better than IA! Cut off the head and the body is useless. Looks like a good spot for Sixers -3 to cover?
If the majority think this is a good bet, will go with my CBB ante! Nothing in CBB I like! Don't make many bets, so all are big for me!
Thanks to CK and everyone in this thread. Just remember there will always be a few morons in any walk of life you enter!
MrMonkey
Comment -
Sorry for the long post.Comment -
Excellent work, schaapattack. Very good information.Comment -
CK...is this a smart way to wager? Soley on RLM? The numbers are decentComment -
I'm away (in this case far far away
) in Malaysia so I'll be brief:
I'm posting my plays in my usual thread since CK left the NBA forum (I'm at "I got a new System for O/U betting"). The thread grew up a lot in the past two weeks (more than 6500 views in that time) and my record there since the start is 26-13-0 (all picks) and 10-4-0 system plays O/U.
I've miss the insight from CK in the NBA but always made his secret plays at NCAA! From now on and because I'm a huge fan of CK and his daily NBA thread, I'll be here posting my plays as usual (as usual until he left to NCAA) but also in the other thread that bkane started and should take all the credits for it.
MONDAY's plays (the games will start after I'll be awake for a tour in Kuala Lumpur, lolol)
PHX/PHI OVER 211.5 (last 3 games between this two has average 216,5, and I'm feeling that the linesmaker is putting a line 6.5 higher than the average total of the last games of this two teams (not between them), because he thinks that PHI will get the job done scoring over 110 and Phx will get the usual over 100 mark --- wich meaves me to PHI-3)
LAC pk (same argument as Dexter, will ride them while super hot)
NOTE: carefull on the LAC/CHA game (my system totals say I should play the UNDER, however the late form of the clippers make this a NO PLAY for me. Charlotte is a strange team.....195.5 I just don't know, so I'm off even if the system say play the UNDER!)
CiaoLast edited by joanapoker; 02-09-09, 12:47 PM.Comment -
In a rush today but I see RLM all over the shop tonight. Anyway this could either be a brutal brutal day in the association for me or a very good one:
Lac +2, Phi -3, Mem -2 (subject to CP3 being out), Bucs +5.5
Pucks - Mon/Cal ov 5.5, NJD PL +185Comment -
Real big players look for the weak lines at the beginning of the week.Thats why some of the lines move right away.Then they know if the line keeps moving they try and hit the middle.Alot of times they know when they are going to move a line.This is how the real big players play alot of their plays.We get to figure it out after that.It is hard to track what is public or real genuine sharp money or big player money or public money.Sometimes its just line adjustment by the books.I think if you just get caught up with trying to figure it out and dont cap or use your gut.You might win a few but you wont win in the long run.Thats why, but money management is so damn important.Most of what I see is alot of good cappers trying to figure it out and win for awhile.Then they start with all the high unit bets on multiple goy,gom,g of whatever.When they lose it becomes this issue of why is the public winning etc.Any player good ,great or bad is going to go on great ,good or bad runs.They key is to be consistant so you can survive them.Comment -
My last RLM comment...and something to think about:
Most lines are derived from the Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC). These oddsmakers work everyday analyzing stats and deriving the lines that sportsbooks around the world use. There is usually a group of people who construct a line and then a trial run. During this period, sharps and the like bet on the lines and the lines are adjusted accordingly. If a line is way off, it will be taken off the board and readjusted. Another company that derives the line is www.betcris.com. This sportsbook releases its lines the earliest, as compared to its competitors. Other sportsbooks, fearful of the sharps, first wait for the line movements at betcris, before they post their own lines.
In conclusion, the line is the odds or pointspread that is determined by oddsmakers for a given sporting event matchup. It constructed by a team of oddsmakers and is first tested by sharps before it is released to the general public. If read correctly, one may follow the smart money and beat the sportsbooks in their own game. Lastly, the line is variable and is dependent upon where the money is flowing. In conclusion, the line is the odds or pointspread that is determined by oddsmakers for a given sporting event matchup. It constructed by a team of oddsmakers and is first tested by sharps before it is released to the general public. If read correctly, one may follow the smart money and beat the sportsbooks in their own game. Lastly, the line is variable and is dependent upon where the money is flowing.Comment -
thanks goodness we are back here i hated that ncaa thread.....no way im gonna try and get the steelers money back by betting college hoops.
Agree with Dex on the Clips, have a feeling they are due for an ATS run
GL allComment -
Early leans:
Memphis -1Comment -
This linetells me Vegas is pushing people into taking New Orleans, two weeks ago who on earth would have taken the Griz at +7 nevermind -1. The public seem to be buying into it as well. I think Vegas knows CP3 is out, and West might be suspended but can this kick in tonight?Comment -
its never clear cut with rlm imo - lines can move up until game-time and make it more confusing. i'll use it to solidify my lean, or maybe to throw a few extra bucks on a game.
ie, right now there is clear rlm on the bucks with 65% on hou and the line having gone down from 6.5 to 5.5. clearly, there has been more money placed on the bucks right now.
but what if the line moves back up to 6/6.5 before tipoff - rlm is then gone imo.Comment -
never in my days did I forsee me taking the bucs, clips, grizz and 76ers in one day of the association.
Comment -
So I'm shooting for a good night with clips +1, and over 196.5. I got them a little late, but I still like them.
What does everyone think about the wash/NO over 188? Seems like a pretty good call to me. Both teams have been killing the overs lately. and wash might have an even better chance to score without cp3 stealing the ball.Comment -
i would love to work for them
dream job -
Comment -
Houston is not a rlm play as of now. 69% on houston..line has not moved on most booksComment -
the bucks are the RLM play - with 69% on hou and the line having moved down.
*i use this site for opening lines - always very accurate.Comment -
leaning:
NBA
memphis -1
NO-G-Paul-Doubtful, C-Chandler-OUT, F-West-Questionable (Possible Suspension)
phoenix +3.5
NCABB
mizzo -4
iona +2
Manhattan-F-Austin (11 ppg)-Out
NHL
nyr +145 ml
NYR-G-Lundquist-ProbableNJ-D-White-QuestionableLast edited by schaapattack; 02-09-09, 01:49 PM.Comment -
Sorry Dex...didnt see any line movement as of yet.Comment -
What book do they get their lines from Dex if you know.Comment -
scoresandodds has different opening lines than sportsinsights dex...which one is correct i wonderComment -
Trends
just a couple of trends you might find interesting...
KANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season
W VIRGINIA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season
IONA is 4-1 against the spread versus MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
IONA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season
BOISE ST is 4-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasonsComment -
Has anyone seen coolkaren with those picks? Boy you've sure got to love someone who bashes other people's picks and how much money they have lost and so on then doesn't come with picks and reasons of their own. The outsiders always seem to stand out. Just kind of wish that they would stand outside and not in here.Comment -
Love Iona Repski also 1 injury for manhattan: Manhattan-F-Austin (11 ppg)-OutComment -
Speaking of college hoops the only game that sticks out to me is Siena-14.5. I am not playing it, but it looks very enticing....Comment -
really - i dunno then.
*notice the matchups on both are the same - i know thespread.com feeds from sportsinsights
Comment -
most informative thread i've read in a while, thank you all who have contributed.
Comment
