CK'S Back on the NBA Threads anthonydiamondLC Leans for Monday 2/9/09

[SlowRoll]

I see some people are liking the Clippers tomorrow...when I first saw the line and was reminded of the recent trade my gut sided with the clips, however they are such a horrid team and on an east coast road trip going up against a decent bobcats team. I dunno about this one. Morrison and Brown were only averaging 15 and 11 minutes respectively while doing a whole lot of nothing. I think there departures won't really change up much being that there trying to get the right players in the right roles right now working into Larry Brown's defensive system. L.A. is on the end of the 3 game road trip, winning the first two of this road trip there playing with house money I can see a big flop in this spot. Bobcats are on a skid here but this is the team you wanna play to rectify things, especially at home.

Mr. Diamond

Do you have any knowledge if Raja will play tomorrow? I believe his court presence will have a major impact on this game v.s the Clippers.
Im sure you noticed the stat Road Team 7-0-1 ATS but I would bet the previous spreads were not so close. I am definitely taking the OVER 195.5 The numbers are just to good. Let me know your feelings.

[The_Kid]

I see some people are liking the Clippers tomorrow...when I first saw the line and was reminded of the recent trade my gut sided with the clips, however they are such a horrid team and on an east coast road trip going up against a decent bobcats team. I dunno about this one. Bobcats are on a skid here but this is the team you wanna play to rectify things, especially at home.

I understand your reasoning behind this one. To me, backing the Clippers takes a lot of guts especially when they were injured. But it looks like the Clippers have started to play very well over the past couple games. I never would have expected them to hang 120+ points on the Grizzlies and then the Hawks in consecutive games. That shows me something especially on the road. The Hawks and Grizzlies are by no means top defensive teams but to put up 120+ on any given night is impressive. The talent on the Clippers roster is definitely there. It's just a matter of staying healthy. Baron Davis, Randolph, and Camby are all back and Thornton and Gordon are developing nicely for the future. For the Bobcats, I know there will be some minute-mixing for Larry Brown as he tries different lineups with Vlad, Augustin, and a guy named Cartier Martin, who was signed to his second ten day contract.

Mr. Diamond

Do you have any knowledge if Raja will play tomorrow? I believe his court presence will have a major impact on this game v.s the Clippers.

This is the latest news from Rotoworld.com:

Bobcats guard Raja Bell will miss at least the next two games with a strained groin. Bell could return for Wednesday's game --giving him a one-game week-- but it seems reasonable that he won't return until after the All-Star break.

[SlowRoll]

Shooting 3pt shots Free Throws Rebounds
Date Teams Score Line Result Half FGM-A Pct FGM-A Pct FTM-A Pct Tot. OFF TO
01/28/2008 CHARLOTTE 107 189 SU ATS 59 38-67 56.7% 7-16 43.7% 24-32 75.0% 36 4 16
LA CLIPPERS 100 0 Over 49 43-78 55.1% 0-8 0.0% 14-15 93.3% 37 8 15
12/12/2007 LA CLIPPERS 103 188 ATS 55 35-78 44.9% 9-21 42.9% 24-31 77.4% 46 10 14
CHARLOTTE 108 -6 SU Over 43 40-80 50.0% 6-13 46.2% 22-31 71.0% 53 10 11

[texhooper]

the kid, like the clippers even more now. it's official--clippers +2.

i still like the rockets -6.5, which sounds scary, but i like it. and i still like the 76ers as well, esp if they're getting points, as i hope they will be. seems like we're only talking about the clippers game here, which feels really weird to say.

[SlowRoll]

Sorry that stat is so unclear. I am sure you guys have seen that stat anyways, last 2 games combined for 207 and 211 but I do admit there is at least 1 key scorer out 4 the Cats (Bell)

[anthonydiamondLC]

I was just looking up the last time the Clippers had one 3 games on the road before...check this out. Last time the Clippers won 3 games on the road in a row was in 2006. They made the playoffs that year and actually got to the 2nd round. I would not bet the Clippers here and right now as i'm writing this with that stat I may make the Bobcats ML my play for CK tomorrow. The Clippers are a miserable basketball team and if the last time they won 3 in a row was in a playoff year in 2006 I think I will take my chances with the Bobcats tomorrow. Slow Roll Like the kid said I would not expect Raja to be in the lineup.

[SlowRoll]

Clippers give the Bobcats a trim?

seems like we're only talking about the clippers game here, which feels really weird to say.[/QUOTE]

Too funny, that really says it all right there.

[anthonydiamondLC]

The NBA card tomorrow is brutal thats why lol.

[SlowRoll]

Card is pretty harsh. Thoughts on Hornets at Memphis?

[texhooper]

hahahaha, yeah, have we really come to the point where the clippers (or their detractors) are the consensus for the day??

this means it's time for me to go to bed.

[SlowRoll]

[SlowRoll]

No thoughts on Hornets at Griz??

[BCaldwell32]

Just cause the Clippers won two in a row doesn't mean it is impossible to win the third. If I flip a coin and it's heads 9 times in a row does that mean that tails is the favorite on 10th flip?

[squintz4]

Only play for me tomorrow is Clippers +2. The Clips are 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in Charlotte. They are now firing on all cylinders after welcoming back Baron Davis, Marcus Camby and Zach Randolph. They are also coming off of two big road wins over Memphis and Atlanta. I look for Vlad Radmanovic to mess up Charlotte's rotation. Add the fact that Charlotte is playing the second game of a back to back and it appears Raja Bell won't be suiting up. Clippers cruise.

[wangichu]

Cocknocker, with the loss of Cleveland, I estimate that you are down about 10 dimes, not to mention the extra juices you normally incur for being faithful to your buying points theory, do you now try to win back everything in your next bet or next 2 bets this time?

dude, he doesn't ALWAYS buy points, only when it's appropriate to get him above, below, or on a key number

[The_Kid]

the kid, like the clippers even more now. it's official--clippers +2.

i still like the rockets -6.5, which sounds scary, but i like it. and i still like the 76ers as well, esp if they're getting points, as i hope they will be. seems like we're only talking about the clippers game here, which feels really weird to say.

It is weird that we're focusing on THIS team but we feel there's an edge, so we're going for it. Good luck tomorrow, texhooper.

Houston is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee but I'm worried about the trio of Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, and Richard Jefferson. Those guys can more than fill the vacancy left by Redd, Bogut, and Ridnour. Milwaukee did go to OT with Detroit a couple days ago so I'm taking that into account too and all three of those guys have been logging serious minutes (Sessions: 40+ minutes in 3 straight, Villanueva: 40+ minutes in 4 of the last 5, Jefferson: 40+ minutes in 4 straight). They did just acquire Bogans from Orlando so that should provide some help but from their bench, the only guys I see doing any damage is Charlie Bell and Gadzuric (to foul Yao).

Another interesting sidenote is Artest calling out McGrady to step it up on defense. I don't know how this will affect the Rockets play (I think they'll step it up defensively tomorrow) but it's something worthwhile to mull over if anyone decides to side with the Rockets.

[wangichu]

No thoughts on Hornets at Griz??

Actually I'm really liking the Griz. They have played the horny's to OT a couple of times in years past and won a few at their home. Also, if cp3 is out, we know how that will hurt them, and D-West may be suspended for his foul on mike miller. I realize that this will probably be reflected in the spread, but I like grizz to win this SU with a thin horny team on a back to back having squeaked out a tough one last night.

MEM +3(guess)

Dex, kinda creepy, we keep winding up with similar plays, i think i probably just play a few more on average.

I hear what your saying on the clips anthonydiamond, and while i agree, zach randolph brings a new dynamic to that team. I don't think that even Elton Brand was as good of an interior dominant scorer than randolph, and with him and camby down there, they have a solid interior. Randolph has been out more than he's been in for the clips since his trade, but they have been a vastly different team when he's on the court, then baron is finally back too, to give the team the leader they need. Baron turns flunking franchises around, just peep his track record. On top of all of this, i think that their bench got some amazingly invaluable experience on the front lines with their main set of starters (camby, randolph, davis) injured for so long. That experience will now turn into valuable depth that will help them win games. I've been waiting for randolph (and friends) to get back so i could bang the clips and now it's here. If you can't bite now, you won't be able to get them with cheap spreads, so i'll take my chances.

LAC +2/ML

also, sixers beat the suns in phoenix last year, so they are clearly capable of hanging. I think they will win respective home games this year, and this is a perfect opportunity for the sixers. suns looked bad frequently last night, detroit just couldn't capitalize because they suck as much if not worse. Either way, that means they are on a back to back with a couple hours of travel and should be ready for a let down of a perceived quality victory. Sixers will be chomping at the bit.

PHI


kind of worries me that so many people are on those two picks, but i can't convince myself to play those games any other way...

[lambogb]

i know we in the nba againb but.. im liking the pitt over, interested in your thoughts:

Pitt OVER ~136 (prolly be higher by tmrw)

+ pitt scored 90+ 3 games straight

+ 7 of the last 10 pitt games over 135 (161, 164, 173, 124, 136, 138, 132, 137, 157, 124)
- 3 of the last 10 wvu games over 135 (145, 135, 132, 127, 146, 132, 121, 161, 128, 116)

+ West Virginia

• Over is 7-2 in Mountaineers last 9 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.
• Over is 7-2 in Mountaineers last 9 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.

+ Pittsburgh

• Over is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
• Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
• Over is 25-6 in Panthers last 31 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.
• Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games.
• Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 28-8 in Panthers last 36 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.

...

bit the following from kindergartencapper from covers

"Pitt put a rout on them last time and I see the pace of this game being up and down. I also think this one might be a little closer and some fouls towards the end. Pitt should be able to hang at least 70.(79 last meeting on some great shooting) and WVU should give us around 65-70 IMO. WVU conf. games are going for 134.1 and Pitt's are at 144.2. Last game saw two halves with 70 or more points"

just passing the info along..

[africanroller]

wow e

[africanroller]

Wow CK nothing like bragging about being a dealer on a public forum. Guess you do not realize how well you can be tracked through the internet eh.

[showtime2000]

hey roller, welcome back!

[walbjj]

hey africanroller, i dont think ck is bragging. he has mentioned previously that he lives in california and he has a state licence that allows him to grow a certain amount of marijuana for medicinal purposes. correct me if im wrong here ck

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

With Chris Paul out tomorrow. I'm liking the Grizziles at home +points.

[mac]

clips/charlotte OVER looks incredible. I love it.

[JGILL50]

First Play booked Clippers ML +105
value is dropping quick with public all over the cats i love this play

[Karayilan9]

I did like the look of the Houston match but when you look deeper at the game it doesn't look half as nice.

Houstons away record is 13 Wins 14 Losses and their recent road form hasn't been any good either, they just got hammered by the Grizzlies.
However, they have a good record against the Bucks and haven't lost to them since 2004! Bucks have alot of injuries but will try their hardest not to loose 3 home games in a row.

1st QTR wise, Houston looks great at 65% to Bucks 41% but these stats arn't enough alone and can be misleading! Houston haven't won a 1st QTR in their last 3 away games, they do much better 1st QTR wise at home. Bucks have only won one of their last 1st QTR's.

Houston look the better pick on paper but their recent form makes it risky.

[Dexter]

I see some people are liking the Clippers tomorrow...when I first saw the line and was reminded of the recent trade my gut sided with the clips, however they are such a horrid team and on an east coast road trip going up against a decent bobcats team. I dunno about this one. Morrison and Brown were only averaging 15 and 11 minutes respectively while doing a whole lot of nothing. I think there departures won't really change up much being that there trying to get the right players in the right roles right now working into Larry Brown's defensive system. L.A. is on the end of a long road trip, winning the last two of this road trip there playing with house money I can see a big flop in this spot. Bobcats are on a skid here but this is the team you wanna play to rectify things, especially at home.

thats the only part i dont like - but hey, ya cant expect to have every angle in your favor.

as for raja bell - an 11/3/2 guy should not really affect a game all that much. hes out tonight anyway.

another important factor i didnt mention in my write up - the cats are lost w/o gerald wallace (on both ends of the court) - they are now 0-4 su/ats since he went down. they have no one that can create their own shot.

http://blogs.charlotte.com/inside_the_nba/2009/02/bells-injury-strains-bobcats-defense.html

[hockeytown11]

2-1 in pucks yesterday now 19-8 last 27 posts here and no losing day in 2 weeks(just gave myself bad karma)

tonight im going with

Calgary/Montreal over 5.5
NY RAGS +145

[repski]

Hou/Mil

when handicapping this game keep in mind Sessions for Milwaukee..since he's replaced Ridnour he's been going off...against Det. he went for 42pts 12A....until we get a better feel for how his play will affect Mil....He makes it hard to set lines..JMHO

[Dexter]

when handicapping this game keep in mind Sessions for Milwaukee..since he's replaced Ridnour he's been going off...against Det. he went for 42pts 12A....until we get a better feel for how his play will affect Mil....He makes it hard to set lines..JMHO

sessions is an EXCELLENT all around player - he showed that at the end of last season. luke better hurry back, or hes gonna lose that starting job.

sessions>ridnour

[repski]

thats the only part i dont like - but hey, ya cant expect to have every angle in your favor.

as for raja bell - an 11/3/2 guy should not really affect a game all that much. hes out tonight anyway.

another important factor i didnt mention in my write up - the cats are lost w/o gerald wallace (on both ends of the court) - they are now 0-4 su/ats since he went down. they have no one that can create their own shot.

http://blogs.charlotte.com/inside_th...s-defense.html

Dexter,
We also have to watch these games..which I know you do...stats are great but the way the LAC won there last 2 games was pretty dominating and because of their previous poor play the lines should give us some value..I had the same idea to ride them...

[hockeytown11]

lukes out for the year,im pretty sure

[Dexter]

lukes out for the year,im pretty sure

4 weeks - broken thumb.

[Karayilan9]

76ers 1st QTR @ -1.5

The Suns-76'ers game 1st QTR stats look tight overall, 76'ers winning 58% Phoenix 52% of theirs. However, again when we break these figures down it becomes clear Phoenix won most these 1st QTR's at home and that their away 1st QTR record stinks.

76ers Last 5 1st QTR results @ Home: Win Heat. Win Pacers. Lost Celtics!. Drew Nets. Won Wizards.


Suns Last 5 1st QTR results Away: Draw @ Pistons. Lost @ Warriors!. Lost @ Wizards!. Won @ Atlanta. Lost @ Bobcats

If we break down these stats down another level.

76ers lost their only 1st QTR in the past 5 games to Boston Celtics, Celtics are one of the best teams in the NBA aswell as one of the best 1st QTR teams stats wise so we must take this into consideration.

Philli have 2 straight Wins, are 14-9 @ Home and the 2 games they lost at home in the last 5 have only been by 1 point 2 Celtics and 2 points to Bucks, in both these games they won atleast one quarter.

On the opposite side of the spectrum we have the Suns. They have lost 1st QTR's to the two worst 1st QTR teams Wizards and Warriors. They are 9-13 in games on the road, HOWEVER, they are on a 2 game winning streak like the 76ers and have one on their home turf before.

This could be a tight game but I see value in the 1st QTR bet for Philli.

It would be great if we could do a spreadsheet looking at team QTR's based on Home and Away records, it gives a better picture and we can pick up trends of strong Home or Road teams.

[pho3nix32]

another important factor i didnt mention in my write up - the cats are lost w/o gerald wallace (on both ends of the court) - they are now 0-4 su/ats since he went down. they have no one that can create their own shot.

i second dex's observation here. bobcats have not been covering ever since gwall went out.