John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

[imotiv8]

The system still works, this is weed out time...lol. 1-7-5 filtered will definitely be positive by the end of the season

[bonhammer]

its a high variance system. two losses is over a 50 unit swing.

[Maxi_EV]

Bankroll management.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 35-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -22.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-3.41 units)

(1/11/14):
#36 Orlando (+12½) (D) - Loss
#38 Milwaukee (+15) (B) - Loss
#39 New Orleans (+8) (B) - Win


v1 Plays
(A) 23-16
(B) 7-9
(C) 2-6
(D) 3-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



There are no system plays for (1/12/14):
#38 Resumes (C) on 1/13/14



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

[kdavis]

yeah seriously... these systems just stopped working. bet the books have adjusted the lines to these systems.

The system hasn't stopped working because the books have adjusted the lines. The system has become less efficient because the players in this league are becoming lazy'er and lazy'er each year. The money is so big that they decide when and where they want to play. You can't handicap a game when you have to factor in laziness. The days of MJ, Larry Bird, Julius Irving,Magic Johnson and others are long gone. These guy's wanted to win every game. Today's so called stars just try to win when they feel like it. The problem is that we don't know when they FEEL like it.

[dlunc3]

Wallco, in your back testing, did a team that lost a 4 game chase (Orlando for example) ever then proceed to lose the next 4 as well? What I'm wondering is.. Based on the current losing streak of Orlando, would chasing their next 4 games have a 100% win rate over the last 10 years (or however long you have been tracking)?

[Grinder12000]

Looking back to 1990 most teams have lost 8 in a row about 8 to 12 times. It's not unheard of.

i disagree with the laziness factor. That's just silly. Players a re smarter now and know that it's a LONG year. What some people call lazy other call pacing themselves.

[PanamaKid]

Looking back to 1990 most teams have lost 8 in a row about 8 to 12 times. It's not unheard of.

True, but the question isn't just "Did they lose?" It's "Did they lose against the spread 8 times in a row?" That's not quite as easy to do.

[Wallco99]

True, but the question isn't just "Did they lose?" It's "Did they lose against the spread 8 times in a row?" That's not quite as easy to do.

Actually, it would be 11 times in a row since they have to lose to the spread three times before the initial chase even begins. That is even harder yet.

[Kev the Brit]

Wallco, in your back testing, did a team that lost a 4 game chase (Orlando for example) ever then proceed to lose the next 4 as well? What I'm wondering is.. Based on the current losing streak of Orlando, would chasing their next 4 games have a 100% win rate over the last 10 years (or however long you have been tracking)?

Very good question. Wallco?

[Kev the Brit]

Actually, it would be 11 times in a row since they have to lose to the spread three times before the initial chase even begins. That is even harder yet.

It hasn't happened yet, but it would be useful if your back tests could be checked, if you have time that is.

I'm going to play Orlando in their chase #2. Its worked so far, but I would like to increase the risk if the back tests show no back to back failures.

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 1/12 Results & 1/13 Plays

"

[play4win]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 35-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -22.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-3.41 units)

(1/11/14):
#36 Orlando (+12½) (D) - Loss
#38 Milwaukee (+15) (B) - Loss
#39 New Orleans (+8) (B) - Win


v1 Plays
(A) 23-16
(B) 7-9
(C) 2-6
(D) 3-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



There are no system plays for (1/12/14):
#38 Resumes (C) on 1/13/14



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

what about phillie A bet?

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 35-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -22.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-3.41 units)


v1 Plays
(A) 23-16
(B) 7-9
(C) 2-6
(D) 3-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



Games for (1/13/14):
#38 Milwaukee (+11½) @ Toronto (C) (7:05 pm EST)
#40 Orlando (+12) @ Dallas (A) (8:35 pm EST)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

[Wallco99]

what about phillie A bet?

We'll start that on 1/15, be glad we missed it.

[dlunc3]

Wallco, in your back testing, did a team that lost a 4 game chase (Orlando for example) ever then proceed to lose the next 4 as well? What I'm wondering is.. Based on the current losing streak of Orlando, would chasing their next 4 games have a 100% win rate over the last 10 years (or however long you have been tracking)?

Any idea on this Wallco? Thinking about upping the bet significantly on this series starting tonight

[hagball52]

Any idea on this Wallco? Thinking about upping the bet significantly on this series starting tonight

I asked that same question awhile back and I think Wallco said he would check. I know he's been busy but personally I have upped the ante on repeat series the past two years and it's never gone past a second (B) bet except for Charlotte either last season or the one before. But I always cashed.

[Wallco99]

Any idea on this Wallco? Thinking about upping the bet significantly on this series starting tonight

I am pretty sure it didn't, but I definitely have to double check that one. Is there some kind of search we can do to find 11 game losing streaks ATS. Then if there are some, double check those to make sure none of the 11 games would have been M/L wins when team was favored, provided that did not occur in games 1-3, which would have to be S/U as well as M/L losses to even qualify. I have been writing a spreadsheet to test 15 different scenarios at once for Chase 110. When this is complete, that info should be easy to comb through. But now, I am just guessing.

[play4win]

this is just pathetic!
is it time to fade? any of these systems

[Grinder12000]

True, but the question isn't just "Did they lose?" It's "Did they lose against the spread 8 times in a row?" That's not quite as easy to do.

Yes - I was talking about ATS. Sorry - WINNING games I never look at - I can't even tell you who is in who the good teams are. Unless it's ATS! LOL

[jcygts6]

very good point KDavis!

Baalllinnnnnnn...

[KennyM10]

this is just pathetic!
is it time to fade? any of these systems

Well you sure as hell should not be playing them with real money.
Do you really think these guys are losing
30 units at a time? Air betting

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 1/13 Results & 1/14 Plays

"

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 35-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -22.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-9.36 units)

(1/13/14):
#38 Milwaukee (+10½) (C) - Loss
#39 Orlando (+12½) (A) - Loss


v1 Plays
(A) 23-17
(B) 7-9
(C) 2-7
(D) 3-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



Games for (1/14/14):
#38 Resumes (D) on 1/15/14
#40 Resumes (B) on 1/15/14
#41 Cleveland @ L.A. Lakers (+4) (A) (10:35 pm EST)

**Charlotte series has been temporarily suspended until conclusion of Orlando series (#40).



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

[Andy3568]

Wallco,

I know the Lakers lost the last three, but I believe they pushed ATS against Houston on 1/8. Do they still count as a play?

[Kev the Brit]

Wallco,

I know the Lakers lost the last three, but I believe they pushed ATS against Houston on 1/8. Do they still count as a play?

Hi Andy,
Reading Wallco's rules at Post #45, I think we treat pushes as though they didn't happen. The Lakers have now lost 4 SU and 3 ATS with 1 push, so I think they qualify for the Chase...

[Aram325302]

@Jemstens people like you are scum of the earth. Do want us to honestly believe you know about fixed games. Why not become a millionair in Vegas and set off to the sunset? I know you want all of us to make money right

[kdavis]

"

[Kev the Brit]

Kev, Miami should be included in the 1/15 scheduled plays unless I missed something.

You missed nothing. I missed it. Fortunately, it has little effect today but., all the same, thank you very much. The post has now been edited.

Kev

[Andy3568]

You are correct, Kevin. I did read that, and when I did, I was thinking only in terms of games to bet on and not on qualifying games. Makes sense. Thanks.

[Wallco99]

Hi Andy,
Reading Wallco's rules at Post #45, I think we treat pushes as though they didn't happen. The Lakers have now lost 4 SU and 3 ATS with 1 push, so I think they qualify for the Chase...

The above statement is CORRECT.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 36-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -21.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-9.36 units)

(1/14/14):
#41 L.A. Lakers (+3½) (C) - Win



v1 Plays
(A) 24-17
(B) 7-9
(C) 2-7
(D) 3-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



Games for (1/15/14):
#38 Memphis @ Milwaukee (+6) (D) (8:05 pm EST)
#40 Chicago @ Orlando (+5.5) (B) (7:05 pm EST)
#42 Charlotte @ Philadelphia (M/L) (A) (7:05 pm EST)

** Denotes line not available at time of post.



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 1/14 Results & 1/15 Plays

"

[imotiv8]

Talk about a huge day! Can't believe the lines on Orlando and Milwaukee. Orlando is without they're top scorer and rebounder…..and they're only getting 5.5???

[Andy3568]

WTF, Miami???