John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

[Kev the Brit]

In the Published System the L.A. Lakers pushed the 3 point buy ATS. Regardless of which bet it is, a push in the published system means that the series continues. The opening statement in the Morrison pdf states:

"In a nutshell, you will be betting that one team is going to win at least one game against the spread (plus 3 points - added by Kev) in a 3-game away series where all three of their opposing teams are from the opposite conference. This is a bet that you will win more than 97% of the time."

On that basis, the Lakers series officially continues to the B bet

Regards
Kev

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 33-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -3.21 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-5.35 units)

(1/7/14):
#35 Detroit (+2½) (B) - Loss
#37 Washington (M/L) (A) - Win


v1 Plays
(A) 23-14
(B) 6-7
(C) 2-4
(D) 2-2
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u)



Games for (1/8/14):
#35 Detroit (+5) @ Toronto (C) (7:05 pm EST)
#36 Orlando (+13) @ Portland (B) (10:05 pm EST)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

[Boyne]

One way or another this looks like being our most exciting night in years, if not decades. Luckily, I know the location of a good bridge as an emergency stand-by.

[Boyne]

And the river's so flooded you can't see the river!!!

[imotiv8]

would Orlando still be a play under the Published JM with their best player out?

[Kev the Brit]

would Orlando still be a play under the Published JM with their best player out?

Thanks Imotiv. This got by me this morning, although in my defence the daily post went up before the team rosters were published.

#66 Orlando is now filtered out of the Published System.

There will be a small loss (-1.85 units) applied to the Published System on 1/9

[Kev the Brit]

After a bad night, last night, this evening is digging the deepest I've ever been into my BR. All 5 bets are ostensibly 50/50, so I'm hoping to see a decent overall result when I wake up tomorrow. Without 2 winners from 5, I doubt that I will be able to fully play 3 C Bets...

[BCC585]

I'm kind of glad i've been using half of a precent of my bankroll for unit sizes, especially playing multiple systems.
Last night was painful to watch every team tank one after another.
But good luck tonight boys, let's get these wins

[Andy3568]

Boston's best player was out Tuesday night against the Nuggets, though I don't think that was known in advance. He's questionable for tonight.

[imotiv8]

Who is that??

[kdavis]

Who is that??

Kris Humphries. Rotoworld says he will play tonight.

[Kev the Brit]

Kris Humphries. Rotoworld says he will play tonight.

Thanks kdavis. This is annoying. As a non-American, I'm not very knowledgeable about which websites to use when checking player injuries. I checked scoresandodds.com for injuries before the A and B bets and they showed only Rajon Rondo as injured. I checked he's not the most efficient player and posted Boston as a play. Now I find out that Humphries injured himself during the A Bet and did not play in the B Bet game. Boston should now be a no-play, but we're within 3 hours and a lot of folk, including me (recovery bet), have made their bets.

I have to be accurate for the system stats. Whatever happens tonight, the official result of #65 Boston in the Published System is that they were filtered out after the A Bet, incurring a 1.85 unit series loss or even higher if playing the recovery.

I need to find a sure-fire method of finding these player injuries sooner than this. I've just had a look at rotoworld.com and it could be the place to check.

[Andy3568]

When I was following the original system, I used to use this site to check for injuries:

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/injuries

I have been playing 1-7-5 this season, so I haven't been checking on injuries. The only reason I knew about this one is because Morrison sent out an email and mentioned it.

[bgilic]

Hey Lakers thanks for giving me a heart attack.

Sincerely,
Every Laker Bettor

[bonhammer]

Almost breakeven day. Now two days to prepare for C day.

[play4win]

jm nba system is becoming garbage.
might consider playing hockey more!

[Kev the Brit]

When I was following the original system, I used to use this site to check for injuries:

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/injuries

I have been playing 1-7-5 this season, so I haven't been checking on injuries. The only reason I knew about this one is because Morrison sent out an email and mentioned it.

Brilliant! I've just checked it now, at 0400 EST on 1/9, and the site has already been updated on 1/9 with the latest injuries. This is exactly what I/we need for the Published System posts

Many thanks, Andy.

Regards
Kev

[Kev the Brit]

Effect of Boston Player Injury (Published System)

Hi Folks,
Boston's most efficient player (Humphries) did not play in the B bet (1/7). My immediate reaction (although somewhat late) to receiving this news yesterday, was to retrospectively filter Boston out of their Published System B & C Bets. I believe that was the correct thing to do for the record. I was also aware that the player would probably play in the game last night. I should then have done some research on Boston's schedule to see if the Published System series could be resumed in an official manner once the player was fit. It transpires that it could, as follows:

1/5: V1 A Bet: Humphries played, but bet lost
1/7: V1 B Bet: Humphries injured, team (retrospectively) filtered out of B Bet
1/8: V1 Replacement B Bet (was original C Bet): Humphries played and B bet wins
1/10: V1 C Bet (@ Golden State), not required.

My mistake yesterday, was not checking to see if Boston are still on the road in the other conference and therefore officially remaining valid to play the series. I will now record Boston as a series win. Its ugly, not because of their schedule, but because I could and should have seen the road game on 1/10 and advised the Published System players that last night's game qualified as an official V1 B Bet with the C Bet scheduled for 1/10 if required.

Fortunately, most folk here do not play the Published System. Those that do might have already placed their C Bets on Boston, before I changed my post and took Boston off the betting schedule, thereby winning their bets. To those folk who read my changed post late yesterday, and did not bet on Boston as a consequence, I apologise. I just hope there are not enough of you to form a lynch mob. Depending on your confidence in the Recovery concept, you could recover all your lost money on #72, V1 Houston, commencing 1/10.

I will today post #65 Boston as a series win in the Published System.

Regards
Kev

[bgilic]

I can't stress enough how much I appreciate all the hard work Kevin and Wallco do day in and day out to make it as easy to follow. No matter what I just wanted you to know it is not taken for granted even though some of us make you feel like it is. Keep on the great work guys.

[PanamaKid]

I can't stress enough how much I appreciate all the hard work Kevin and Wallco do day in and day out to make it as easy to follow. No matter what I just wanted you to know it is not taken for granted even though some of us make you feel like it is. Keep on the great work guys.

Couldn't agree more. Thanks guys.

[Andy3568]

You're welcome, Kevin. There are still some grey areas surrounding injuries, even with this site, mainly because the team may not release the relevant information until right before the game. So when a player is listed as "possible," you pretty much have to wait until game time to place your bet, which some are unable to do.

[BCC585]

I honestly thought you guys were joking when you said Kris Humphries is the celtics' best player

[hagball52]

When I was following the original system, I used to use this site to check for injuries:

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/injuries

I have been playing 1-7-5 this season, so I haven't been checking on injuries. The only reason I knew about this one is because Morrison sent out an email and mentioned it.

It's not Morrison anymore. It's now Tony the Sportsbetting Champ. Still the same old douche.

[Kev the Brit]

I can't stress enough how much I appreciate all the hard work Kevin and Wallco do day in and day out to make it as easy to follow. No matter what I just wanted you to know it is not taken for granted even though some of us make you feel like it is. Keep on the great work guys.

Couldn't agree more. Thanks guys.

No worries. As long as we can all get some profits (challenging at the moment) out of it, that's all that matters

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 1/8 Results & 1/9 Plays

"

[imotiv8]

Detroit and Lakers aren't a play for the filtered system

[Kev the Brit]

Detroit and Lakers aren't a play for the filtered system

Thanks for that. I copied and pasted the 1-7-5 plays with the intention of cutting out those 2 plays before posting. I got distracted

[Wallco99]

Family emergency, had to fly to Brownsville TX in the middle of the night. Can Andy or someone please post the plays today. I should be back late tonight with full update. Thank you.

[bgilic]

I guess I was lucky to get a win on the Lakers bet with +14.5 line.

[Kev the Brit]

Standing in for Wallco

post deleted, but thanks for the points anyway, guys.

[BCC585]

I guess I was lucky to get a win on the Lakers bet with +14.5 line.

I got them at +14.5 also. I'm debating to continue the series or just take the win.

[alexknyc]

I got them at +14.5 also. I'm debating to continue the series or just take the win.

Lakers suck. I'm taking the win.

[Kev the Brit]

I got them at +14.5 also. I'm debating to continue the series or just take the win.

You got the win you were looking for, so leave it at that. Swings and roundabouts, as we say in UK.

[KennyM10]

Kevin wallco system had a b and c loss and that was only 2 units total on a b and c loss Wednesday lol, accuracy a joke in this thread.

[Wallco99]

Thank you kevin for standing in. Gave Andy my points in NHL, thought he did both. Will give mine to you tomorrow. Thanks again.