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Post #624 from Wallco provides the rules/guidance:
"My plays were based on the following criteria:
1.We will play all JM series, with no 3 ½ point (A) bet filter, until we win series or take a loss on (C) bet, with the exception of the following cases: We will play no series that begin in October, or if our (A) bet pushes ATS, the series is over at that point and we will not continue on to (B). Any other situation, we play all series out.
2.If our (B) or (C) bet pushes, we will play the next game in rotation as our (B) or (C) bet that pushed then finish out the series on the following bet if necessary. At times, this may require the (C) bet to be played during a home game after the road trip, but no negative results have become of this strategy in the 10 year test.
3.We will include ALL the JM v1 bonus plays which become official in any series that starts in-conference and finishes with at least three consecutive out of conference games, provided ALL the in-conference games were lost by more than 3 points ATS, as per JM rules in his .pdf.
4.WE WILL PLAY ALL GAMES ATS AND NEVER BUY POINTS OR PLAY THE M/L.
5.We are playing to WIN 1 unit profit on (A) bets, 7 units profit on (B) bets, and 5 units profit on (C) bets. So the (A) bet wager will be RISK 1.10 units to WIN 1 unit. The (B) bet wager will be RISK 8.91 units to WIN 8.10 units (which is the amount we lost in (A), -1.10 units plus the 7 units profit for a (B) bet wager). The (C) bet wager will be Risk 16.51 units to WIN 15.01 units (which is the amount we lost in (A), -1.10 units plus the amount we lost in (B), 8.91 units plus the 5 units profit for a (C) bet wager. A loss in this strategy will cost -26.52 unit
6.Covers.com was used for all backtest results and will be the official lines for this bet strategy."
As always, it is entirely your decision to do whatever you want, but if you choose to drop the series at this point, due to a personal B Bet push, you will lose 1.1 units and you might also deny yourself another 5 units profit. Officially, the B Bet lost by 0.5 points according to the closing line at covers.com. So, the series remains live with the C Bet tonight.
Regards
KevLast edited by Kev the Brit; 01-04-14, 05:45 AM.Comment -
Morrison 1/3 Results & 1/4 Plays
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I've been playing the 1-7-5 System except whenever a V1 series comes up, in which case I've implemented my V1 Recovery plan as an alternative. The recovery is now all but complete, with 20 units recovered from the 5 V1 series since the Sacramento loss on 12/20 (only a fortnight ago).
The recovered Published system is now back in the green at +5.38 units for the season so far. This also means that the 1-7-5 System, if the recovery plan was incorporated, is now at +94.40 unitsComment -
Pushes do not count as losses in 1-7/5, however NOP clear-cut lost at -3.5 on Covers closing line.Last edited by thelimit0310; 01-04-14, 06:57 AM.Comment -
This is true, but it is moot anyway. What matters is how Covers.com has it listed, not our individual book, and they had it as a loss. If someone chooses to take the 1.1 unit loss and move on so be it, but the backtests show to play the (B) bet again if you tied that game individually, while the rest of us are moving on to (C). Technically you would get a (D) bet out of this series for the price of a (C) bet, because if they lose tonight the next game would be their (C) bet while the rest of us had already taken a loss. But if one is not comfortable continuing to wager on a team they feel is lousy, then by all means, don't.Comment -
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Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 31-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -8.21 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0
v1 Plays
(A) 21-12
(B) 6-6
(C) 2-4
(D) 2-2
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u)
Games for (1/4/14):
#34 Charlotte (+5½) @ Sacramento (A) (10:05 pm EST)
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.
Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.Comment -
Yesterday I was fortunate to place my 1-7-5 system B Bet on New Orleans early in the day when they were -3 ATS. My bet therefore resulted in a push. On the basis that yesterday I was prepared to ultimately risk 26.52 units on New Orleans in this series and that nothing has changed since, I have decided that I should be consistent in my belief. Therefore, I have just bet 25.42 units on New Orleans ATS to win 23.1 units on the system C Bet. It puts me at the same total risk as the official C Bet, but with the possibility of an additional 18 units if we win the bet.
Good luck tonight folks
Regards
KevLast edited by Kev the Brit; 01-04-14, 01:52 PM.Comment -
Off to recovery bets for New OrleansComment -
Morrison 1/4 Results & 1/5 Plays
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Morrison Results & Profit/Loss Statement to Date: 11/1 - 1/04
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New Orleans does not qualify for a recovery plan, as they lost a series in the 1-7-5 system. Only the Published (point buy) V1 system losses qualify for recovery. New Orleans won the Published system V1 series at the A Bet (1/3)
Series losses in both 1-7-5 systems are relatively commonplace due to the lack of point buying. Check out the stats for this year so far:
Published System (V1): 1 series lost in 26 series (failure rate: 3.85%), which is representative of previous years, versus:
1-7-5 System: 6 series lost in 64 series (9.37%) and
1-7-5 (Filtered) System: 5 series lost in 64 series (7.81%), both of which I don't know if they are representative of previous years. Only Wallco has those stats, I believe.
The established very low failure rate (historically, an average of 1 series loss in every 25 series) in the Published V1 permits a hard (big bets) and fast (immediately after) recovery after a series failure. Yes, there is a risk that there will be another series failure during the recovery period, but it hasn't happened yet. The average failure rate of the 1-7-5 systems this year is closer to 1 in 10 and, accordingly, the risk of another series failure within the following 6 series is unacceptably high for a recovery plan.
Maybe Wallco has a view on this...Comment -
Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 32-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -7.21 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0
(1/4/14):
#34 Charlotte (+5½) (A) - Win
v1 Plays
(A) 22-12
(B) 6-6
(C) 2-4
(D) 2-2
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u)
Games for (1/5/14):
#35 Memphis @ Detroit (M/L) (A) (1:05 pm EST)
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.
Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.Comment -
Thanks for explanation KevinComment -
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Morrison 1/5 Results & 1/6 Plays
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Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 32-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -7.21 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.50 units)
(1/5/14):
#35 Detroit (M/L) (A) - Loss
v1 Plays
(A) 22-13
(B) 6-6
(C) 2-4
(D) 2-2
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u)
Games for (1/6/14):
#35 Resumes (B) on 1/7/14
#36 Orlando (**) @ L.A. Clippers (A) (10:35 pm EST)
** Denotes line not available at time of post.
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.
Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.Comment -
orlando looks toastDO WORK + KROW OD
do work! do work! do work! do work!
od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
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cant wait to get out of the redDO WORK + KROW OD
do work! do work! do work! do work!
od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
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Morrison 1/6 Results & 1/7 Plays
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Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 32-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -7.21 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-2.60 units)
(1/6/14):
#36 Orlando (+7½) (A) - Loss
v1 Plays
(A) 22-14
(B) 6-6
(C) 2-4
(D) 2-2
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u)
Games for (1/7/14):
#35 Detroit (+2½) @ N.Y. Knicks (B) (7:35 pm EST)
#36 Resumes (B) on 1/8/14
#37 Washington (PK) @ Charlotte (A) (7:05 pm EST)
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.
Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.Comment -
It's a big one today, good work Kev and WallcoComment -
1 win. Lovely.Comment -
Jesus christ. Biggest Day so far todayComment -
Morrison 1/7 Results & 1/8 Plays
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i've got refund for that.
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