Leans for Monday 1/5/08 Wager With CK's Money Day

dreday · 01-04-09, 11:58 PM

regarding the blowout win by Miami...It looks like Miami has covered 4 straight against the spurs (3 as dogs and one as a fav) all 4 games stayed under. I dont have a line yet.. is it possible that Miami will be a favorite at home???

Dfjay9 · 01-05-09, 12:02 AM

OSU! Simple as that no?

willpies · 01-05-09, 12:05 AM

bucks will want revenge for there shit performance at charlotte

xxxvince · 01-05-09, 12:05 AM

NJ sucks at home for some reason.. stay way from the nets at home

xxxvince · 01-05-09, 12:06 AM

toronto raptors will be playing after a long day on sunday playing OT... mmmm

Dexter · 01-05-09, 12:18 AM

i dont care about the reverse line movement here, i'm going with texas. there defense is ranked 2nd in the nation vs the run, so its going to come down to the poor passing offense of osu vs the poor pass defense of texas. ohio state is 0-2 ats as dogs this year, while texas is 8-3 ats as a favorite. i think they take their anger out and run up the score on osu - showing the country that they should be playing for the national championship.

*texas
_____________________________
warriors are a horrid 7-15 ats on the road, while the jazz (as usual) are solid at home at 10-6 ats. utah will be hungry to get back in the win column after the laker loss. jazz roll.

*jazz (large)
_____________________________
i dont play nba totals much, but this one could be real easy. its a high total, but both teams have been playing the over all year. rested - both teams should put up 110+. something like denver 125-115

*over nuggets
_____________________________
revenge angle here for the kings who lost by 2 at home to the nets in nov. kings won last year in nj, and we all know how poor the nets have been at home this year (6-12 ats) - while the kings are 10-7 ats on the road. harris is questionable for nj, so no line yet. with him, the nets should be -7 .. without harris, -5...

*kings
______________________________
off the spurs--

W0lfy · 01-05-09, 12:33 AM

Feelin you on the Kings and Spurs picks Dex. Kevin Martin should be a large part of the kings covering the spread tomorrow and maybe even winning. Wade got a little banged up last game, but that info wont make it to the injury reports.

tlk23 · 01-05-09, 12:44 AM

- Denver games have gone over the last six times and Indiana games have gone over 5 of there last 6. That should mean that the game will probably be 82-80, lol.

- Toronto games have gone over 5 of the last 6.

- Utah games have gone over the last 3 times and they covered their last 2 games, both at home.

- The last 2 days, you would have been 10-3 if you would have taken the points.

- Spurs have not covered in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite.

dreday · 01-05-09, 12:57 AM

Ohio St vs Texas

We have the Big 10 Vs Big 12. The Big 12 has major offensive fire power, I should say major passing fire power but lack in defense. The Big 10 is not flashy like the Big 12 and focus mainly on hard nose rushing. This isnt Big 10 vs SEC. This will be the best defense Texas has seen this year.

The RB's in the Big 12 don't match up to Wells and the other Big 10 RB's. And the Big 12 RB's stats benifit from spread defense that are setup to stop the pass. Texas' #2 in the nation stopping the run, but against teams that Pass first and feel that they have to get into shotouts. I am not buying it.

Saying all that... Its hard for me to put my money on Ohio ST. I have no love for the Big 10 and Jim Tessel seems to always get out coached againts good coaches. Ohio ST might be the Big 10's last chance before you start to hear chatter of pulling the Big 10's automatic BCS bid.

Still thinking:::::

cocknocker · 01-05-09, 01:13 AM

So far, I am liking Dexters' play of Utah for tomorrow. It sounds pretty inticing. I kind of like the sound of it!

cocknocker · 01-05-09, 01:19 AM

Here's what I do know about the Ohio State game. The public is ALL over Texas 67% to 33% yet the line has gone down from 10.5 to 8. Now, if Texas was such a prohibitive favorite, and so much better than the Buckeyes then why is the line falling so much? Man, whatever...You girls and boys just come up with some goodies for me to play in the NBA.

joanapoker has been hot. Looking forward to the suggestions....

Wilforth · 01-05-09, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

_____________________________
warriors are a horrid 7-15 ats on the road, while the jazz (as usual) are solid at home at 10-6 ats. utah will be hungry to get back in the win column after the laker loss. jazz roll.

*jazz (large)
_____________________________
i dont play nba totals much, but this one could be real easy. its a high total, but both teams have been playing the over all year. rested - both teams should put up 110+. something like denver 125-115
______________________________
revenge angle at play here as well for the spurs who lost by 16 back in dec at home to the heat. line should be about a pk when it comes out. marion is questionable. spurs won by 1 last year in mia.

*spurs

I'm on break but hope I'm allowed to throw in one or two comments here:

Jazz -11 looks very solid. The Warriors (they ain't warriors on the court!) play no D and they usually fade in the 2H. Jazz take no prisoners. So expect Jazz to take the lead in the 1H and win by DD. Jazz should win by between 15-20 points.

Miami +/- ??: The revenge angle won't work here. Spurs may have won in Miami last year but the Heat look more "heated" this season than they were last season. Heat are better than some of the teams Spurs have struggled with. Until some fresh blood is injected into Spurs, they'll continue to struggle against teams with younger and more athletic players. It's no coincidence that Spurs are failing to cover the spread in about 80% of their wins so far. Whether Miami will be a favorite or a dog, one expects a Miami win/cover.

Denver/Indiana o/u 222: This is quite tricky. The total has been set much higher than the average total of previous meetings. It looks like the best bet here will be 1Q OVER 55.5.

cocknocker · 01-05-09, 01:28 AM

Somebody tell me why the Nuggets is not a good play...according to my research..well I keep forgetting that I am letting the board do the talking while I do the walking!

BigMoneyMan · 01-05-09, 01:30 AM

Ohio State is the play. Do it and do it BIG

Wilforth · 01-05-09, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Somebody tell me why the Nuggets is not a good play...according to my research..well I keep forgetting that I am letting the board do the talking while I do the walking!

Nuggets is a good play but Jazz have an easier game. The Pacers don't give up as easily as the Warriors do. The moment the Warriors are trailing by a considerable number of points in the 2H, they'll "give up" and melt down. Seeing the treatment OKC and the Timberwolves meted out to them of late, you can imagine what they'll get in the hands of a Jazz team at home. Two 3-pointers and three 2-pointers and the 11-point spread is covered!

DevilDog · 01-05-09, 01:58 AM

Here is my contribution to this thread....this time in the NBA is the WORSE time to bet. These teams are bored, tired, and just looking for the All Star Break. Why do you think you have seen some really wild upsets recently? Teams just do not show up at times and it is hard to figure out when this is going to happen.

When you have sports, like college FB and pro FB, where the games actually mean something... that is where you want to spend your money. I am a BIG BIG NBA guy but now is the time to tread lightly with these overpaid prima donnas.

danrman · 01-05-09, 02:08 AM

everybody that has played the big 12 this bowl season has been up for their game.. now you have the big ten who is looking for respect vs. a team from the big 12 who is supposed to be better than they are and that thinks they should be in a different game,,the national championship.. im leaning ohio st. right now

Hue · 01-05-09, 02:08 AM

Early post

is Deron Williams injured?

johnnyP · 01-05-09, 02:17 AM

Goldenstate at Utah trends

I found a few trends for the Warriors vs' Jazz game. Jazz look strong in this one.

Golden State Last 5 Road Games
GOLDEN STATE IS 0-5 SU AND 1-4 ATS IN THESE GAMES.

Utah last 5 Home Games
UTAH IS 4-1 SU AND 4-1 ATS IN THESE GAMES.

Golden State AT Utah last 5 matches at Utah
UTAH IS 5-0 SU AND 4-0-1 ATS IN THESE GAMES.

Golden State AT Utah last 10 matches at Utah
UTAH IS 8-2 SU AND 5-4-1 ATS IN THESE GAMES.

Utah as FAV w/more than 8 point spread last 10 games
UTAH IS 8-2 SU AND 6-4 ATS IN THESE GAMES.

Golden State UNDERDOG w/more than 8 point spread last 10 games
GOLDEN STATE IS 1-9 SU AND 3-7 ATS IN THESE GAMES.

indeed · 01-05-09, 02:23 AM

The Jazz ALWAYS tear up the Warriors .. Since Nellie has come back, the Jazz have won 9 out of 12 games by an average of 12.5 points .. I know Boozer is out, but Millsap is killing it and the Warriors still have no answer for Deron Williams, as their best perimeter defender (Stephen Jackson) is going to have to guard Millsap since the Warriors have no PF. Also, the over will likely be a smart play on this game .. we all know GSW loves to shoot the three and the Jazz have themselves some shooters as well. These teams always score a ton of points. So take the Jazz at -11.5 and take the over.

I also like Denver, but not at -8.5 .. The Pacers are feeling good about themslves after beating the Knicks and Kings (ha!) in close matches .. they flew from NY to Indy on Friday night to play on Saturday against the Kings and then got on a plane again to start this five-game roadie in the Mile High City. Altitude + the fact that they're looking at playing a five-game road trip that includes Phoenix, Denver, Utah, and the Lakers .. they'll be happy to win just two games on this trip. That's a loser's mentality - which is exactly why they'll lose. Take Denver -whatever up to 10.

Last one: the Nets will likely be without their best player, Devin Harris, who is questionable for the game. The team has been actively looking for another point guard because Keyon Dooling, their back up, is also hobbled right now - he is starting for them. The team is going to rely heavily on Vince and Lopez, but I don't think that's going to happen. They'll still be favored since they're at home, but with Kevin Martin back in the Kings lineup, take Kings +anything.

Since the lines aren't out yet, these aren't official plays .. so we'll see what it looks like in the morning!

danrman · 01-05-09, 02:31 AM

the jazz play new orleans and then detroit next on this home stand so while the jazz should run pitiful golden st. out of the gym be warned they have 2 big games coming up at home... i like the spurs for those who care

isiah121 · 01-05-09, 02:51 AM

CK, the Kings have revenge on their mind, after their lost at home to the Nets earlier in the season. The Nets doesn't really look like a team that can blow out so many teams, and after all the losses, the Kings should play hard and keep this game close? Keep in mind, the Kings beated the Nets at home last season 106-101.

cheesehead004 · 01-05-09, 02:59 AM

Anyone with me on an Ohio State ML + Over 51.5 parlay? When Ohio State plays a big game, when the hell have they ever lost by a big margin when their opponent wasnt an SEC team in the Nat'l Championship? Sure they got clobbered by USC, but that game should be thrown out the window for obvious personnel reasons on the Ohio State side.

I love the Ohio State Buckeyes plus the 8 points. I dont think it's too big of a reach for them to come up with a win here, but I guess I'm just taking a stab at it here and going with a risky pick. Oh well, $200 to win $1136, worth it to me.

NBA Hero · 01-05-09, 03:04 AM

ind will try to snatch a win whenever opportunities is offered.

some teams play poorly but players looking for a spot in the all star like, granger and joe johnson will step up big time. not sure about the chances of denver stars, but im expecting either billups or carmelo

NBA Hero · 01-05-09, 03:05 AM

ats are set too high.

but leaning on the stronger teams like utah and denver. underdogs win big time except for port

vassman86 · 01-05-09, 03:14 AM

Speaking of the Jazz game, the over is looking tempting here.

Warriors allow an average of 112.9 ppg on the road
Warriors score an average of 102.8 ppg on the road
Here's a look at the points allowed by the Warriors in their past 15 road games
115 to Minnesota
107 to OKC
130 to LA Lakers
96 to Miami
113 to Orlando
103 to Charlotte
115 to Atlanta
127 to Indiana
123 to Denver
102 to OKC
123 to San Antonio
131 to Houston
138 to New York
112 to Cleveland
119 to Boston
An average of 117 ppg allowed during that stretch.

The over is 3-1 in the Warrior's past four games, allowing an average of 115 ppg, and scoring an average of 109 ppg.
The over is 3-0 in the Jazz's past three games, allowing an average of 109 ppg, and scoring an average of 109 ppg.

These two teams have a tendency to shoot the lights out when playing each other.
In the past three games between the two,
GSW 109, @ Utah 119 with a line of 226, half-time scores of GSW 64 - 77 Utah
GSW 110, @ Utah 133 with a line of 216, half-time scores of GSW 46 - 65 Utah
Utah 117, @ GSW 96 with a line of 212, half-time scores of Utah 62 - 51 GSW

My take on the game is that Utah will indeed be looking to avenge their loss to the Lakers. I expect them to put on a show in front of their hometown crowd. But the Warriors aren't just going to lay down and die. They'll be prepared to fight fire; both teams will put up a lot of points in the first half. Lines opened at 220 and are sitting at 219 now.

I'm also liking Utah -11.5 here too.

hunt3rtheone · 01-05-09, 04:15 AM

Originally posted by vassman86

Speaking of the Jazz game, the over is looking tempting here.

Warriors allow an average of 112.9 ppg on the road
Warriors score an average of 102.8 ppg on the road
Here's a look at the points allowed by the Warriors in their past 15 road games
115 to Minnesota
107 to OKC
130 to LA Lakers
96 to Miami
113 to Orlando
103 to Charlotte
115 to Atlanta
127 to Indiana
123 to Denver
102 to OKC
123 to San Antonio
131 to Houston
138 to New York
112 to Cleveland
119 to Boston
An average of 117 ppg allowed during that stretch.

The over is 3-1 in the Warrior's past four games, allowing an average of 115 ppg, and scoring an average of 109 ppg.
The over is 3-0 in the Jazz's past three games, allowing an average of 109 ppg, and scoring an average of 109 ppg.

These two teams have a tendency to shoot the lights out when playing each other.
In the past three games between the two,
GSW 109, @ Utah 119 with a line of 226, half-time scores of GSW 64 - 77 Utah
GSW 110, @ Utah 133 with a line of 216, half-time scores of GSW 46 - 65 Utah
Utah 117, @ GSW 96 with a line of 212, half-time scores of Utah 62 - 51 GSW

My take on the game is that Utah will indeed be looking to avenge their loss to the Lakers. I expect them to put on a show in front of their hometown crowd. But the Warriors aren't just going to lay down and die. They'll be prepared to fight fire; both teams will put up a lot of points in the first half. Lines opened at 220 and are sitting at 219 now.

I'm also liking Utah -11.5 here too.

-------------------------

Hello, everybody loves utah and -11,5 points, this is like trowing money on the window .. dont u see the games are f.. up , utah maybe will winn but GS scored much ..for me no bet or +11,5 here!
good luck

hunt3rtheone · 01-05-09, 04:16 AM

the points are set too high maybe buy a few points something like - 7,5 and combine with boston celtics !

peterpan19 · 01-05-09, 04:30 AM

Dont know if anyone already mentioned, but Under is 4-1 in games in Miami, if the line is somewhere around 188, it should be a nice play

kevsworld · 01-05-09, 06:11 AM

yesterday all home teams won (Exception of Clipps)...not sure if it is note worthy, but +dd at home seems like the the play. I watched the trend and took the Knicks and LAkers late.
I have not seen and lines yet...may be time for +dd away tonight...no formula, just a feeling...
mY $.02

NBA Hero · 01-05-09, 06:28 AM

utah should play well for a change. lilsap will be more comfortable with his brace

jalein · 01-05-09, 06:33 AM

Things to consider in tonight's Big 10/Big 12 matchup.
1) Both teams have HIGH octane offenses
2) Both teams defenses leave a lot to be desired
3) Texas has a MUCH stronger run defense then Ohio State. Texas run defense is top 5 I think. All things considered, I have to like Texas to win a shootout on the strength of their superior run Defense, meaning I think Texas will get a few more stops for this reason.
4) The Big 10 does NOT have a conference championship game. OSU has had a significantly LONGER layoff. This lack of a conf championship game continues to cripple the Big 10.
5) Pryor is a STUD, but he is still a freshman stud and has yet to be the center of attention in a stage this big

The more I think about it, I am gonna take the Texas TT over 29.5. Texas for the game -7 buying the hook.

indeed · 01-05-09, 06:41 AM

Why mention the longer layoff when Texas didn't even play in the Big XII Championship Game? Texas played on 11/27 (Thursday) and Ohio State played on 11/22 (the Saturday before) - I don't see the significantly longer layoff that will affect Ohio State.

Dexter · 01-05-09, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by jalein

Things to consider in tonight's Big 10/Big 12 matchup.
1) Both teams have HIGH octane offenses
2) Both teams defenses leave a lot to be desired
3) Texas has a MUCH stronger run defense then Ohio State. Texas run defense is top 5 I think. All things considered, I have to like Texas to win a shootout on the strength of their superior run Defense, meaning I think Texas will get a few more stops for this reason.
4) The Big 10 does NOT have a conference championship game. OSU has had a significantly LONGER layoff. This lack of a conf championship game continues to cripple the Big 10.
5) Pryor is a STUD, but he is still a freshman stud and has yet to be the center of attention in a stage this big

The more I think about it, I am gonna take the Texas TT over 29.5. Texas for the game -7 buying the hook.

nice post, but i dont agree with #1 - osu does not really have a "high octane" offense. they score 28ppg, and are 79th in the nation in total yards.