Leans for Monday 1/5/08 Wager With CK's Money Day

[cocknocker]

jordan gt 99,

I don't list my fade plays because as i explained it is MY practice. It's just what i do. If you have been an avid reader of the threads you would know that I am different than everyone with my style, so I am not going to try to convince anyone to do what i do. I am a master of money management. However, if I offer something to the board and it meets with rejection and skepticism, then i won''t speak on it anymore, and I'll just continue to profit off of it on my own. Just know that i use my vigorish money on myself instead of the book. You can be sure that when i see a 6-10 or more point spread that i am taking, i am going to play a small wager on the other side's moneyline to get a couple of wins for me when i lose. Now if the board does what I do, then Sunday wouldn't have been a bad day at all. I was on a football kick that day but i am sure that everyone saw that the books cleaned up on Sunday, and not one of you had the foresight to play a small wager on the opposing sides moneyline, so all of you who took the favorites took outright losses instead of getting at least something back in return. I was betting really small that day so I didn't mind taking those losses, but if i was on the NBA exclusively that day, I would have faded myself with the Clips, the Knicks in the 1st half too, and so on. But the Ravens gave me all the money I needed for that day, and the future for that matter

[ClockCleaner]

i'm off the spurs - waaaaay higher than what the line should be imo....

Thats what Vegas wants you to do. They set the line this high because they know the Spurs are going to crush the Heat tonite. Spurs are one of the best teams in the league in a revenge spot. If the Spurs were a dog are a pick it the you would not want to play it. In this case Vegas is telling you whats going to happen.

[Dana4U]

College Parlays

I followed your parlay yesterday after doing some of my own research and I couldn't believe the blow out loss by Cinci .... what happened? They kept us from cashing the ticket!

College Basketball Parlay of the Day

Mississippi State-7.5
George Mason-12
Utah State-13
SMU-1.5
Jacksonville State-16

[cocknocker]

ragiche,

I already covered my feelings on the Nets and the Kings game in my last post, as well as the Bucks/Raptors game. I think that the Bucks are too inconsitent of a team to be laying those kinds of points. Bogut may/may not play with those back spasms. That being said, the line movement is working in their favor though. With close numbers 55% for the Raptors and 45 for the Bucks, yet the line went up from 7.5 to 8.5, which is major as a key number was jumped. You might be alright with that one.

San Antonio always has problems against the heat, but the line has gone up to 4 on some books and that is in line with 65% of the public on the Spurs. It should go up.

[vassman86]

Raptors/Bucks Under 192
A few trends to consider
In the past three seasons, the under is 7 for 8
In their past four meetings, the average line for the total has been 195, with actual game scores of 190.
The line is tight, but may be worth a look considering that the under is 7 for 8 between the two.

[ragiche]

CK
Thanks for your insight and advice.I fully appreciate it.

[roasthawg]

Over/Under 223 Den/Ind. Den has been under this total at least their last 3 games at home. Pacers have been over this total only once in the last 6 games, but in each game both team scored at least 103 points.

I am leaning under on both. Thoughts?

I'm on this under...223 is a big number, I'll take my chances with that many points.

[Marts727]

My insight is that SAC will have a blow out game tom vs NETS

[IrwinFletcher]

CK.. looks like a classic set up day in the NBA...

1. NJ coming home after B2B overtime games picking up a win at home v. ATL and losing in MIA and their getting a fairly generic home court line of -3.5. With 75% of bettors currently on NJ screams to me that the books want your money on the "easy pick" of NJ.. The Nets are 1-6 ATS and SU as home favorites this year.

2. Perception v. reality.... The perception being that the Raps just beat a great Magic team and now their giving 8+ points to the Bucks???!! The reality being that the Bucks are simply a more consistent basketball team having won 7 of their last 10, are 10-4 ATS at home and 10-3 w/ one day of rest. Tor had to travel last night to Mil but is a respectable 4-2-1 ATS on B2B games..Redd and RJ are playing great ball and seem to have this team on the right track. This line just stinks to high heaven to me with 70% of bettors on TOR.. Gonna wait for more information on Bogut and see if there is any movement.

3. The Spurs are 4-2 as road favorites so far with the 2 losses coming while they were missing the services of Ginobili. SA is 10-5 ATS on one day's rest and are avenging a blowout loss to Miami.. Bettors are pretty even on this spread which shouldn't cause the line to move. SA is clearly the better team here but it concerns me that the line is only 3.. This is the lowest we've seen this line since Shaq was playing well in MIA. As noted in another post MIA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 which have all gone under the number... I don't have a great read on the side but the total looks to be a bit low here.. I see both teams scoring in the 90's. On another note D Wade & Co. love to play well against the NBA's elite having wins against CLE, LAL, PHX, UTAH and SA..

[roasthawg]

3. The Spurs are 4-2 as road favorites so far with the 2 losses coming while they were missing the services of Ginobili. SA is 10-5 ATS on one day's rest and are avenging a blowout loss to Miami.. Bettors are pretty even on this spread which shouldn't cause the line to move. SA is clearly the better team here but it concerns me that the line is only 3.. This is the lowest we've seen this line since Shaq was playing well in MIA. As noted in another post MIA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 which have all gone under the number... I don't have a great read on the side but the total looks to be a bit low here.. I see both teams scoring in the 90's. On another note D Wade & Co. love to play well against the NBA's elite having wins against CLE, LAL, PHX, UTAH and SA..

This over is my favorite bet of the day, already posted it in the best bets thread. I've been on fire with my best bet for the last couple weeks so I'm do for a couple of losses in a row here...feel free to fade me!

[killersweet]

The main reason I am leaning towards the raptors tonight is because of how they play in the month of January. They have been 18-10 in the month of January in the last 2 seasons. So certainly they play their best ball in January. So I think bucks are getting a lot of points here. Lets just hope they bring their game tonight and keep it close! And their other back up PG Ukic has been solid as of late.

[Dexter]

Thats what Vegas wants you to do. They set the line this high because they know the Spurs are going to crush the Heat tonite. Spurs are one of the best teams in the league in a revenge spot. If the Spurs were a dog are a pick it the you would not want to play it. In this case Vegas is telling you whats going to happen.

good point - but i have enough plays tonight. i was kind of going over my daily amount of games anyway. was not in love with the play to begin with...

[nonsense48]

looks like a rather lite day in that i'm solid on only 1 game so far in the nba with utah-10' and ncaaf tex-8. ind+8' is still a possibility though. large on utah.

[ClockCleaner]

CK.. looks like a classic set up day in


3. The Spurs are 4-2 as road favorites so far with the 2 losses coming while they were missing the services of Ginobili. SA is 10-5 ATS on one day's rest and are avenging a blowout loss to Miami.. Bettors are pretty even on this spread which shouldn't cause the line to move. SA is clearly the better team here but it concerns me that the line is only 3.. This is the lowest we've seen this line since Shaq was playing well in MIA. As noted in another post MIA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 which have all gone under the number... I don't have a great read on the side but the total looks to be a bit low here.. I see both teams scoring in the 90's. On another note D Wade & Co. love to play well against the NBA's elite having wins against CLE, LAL, PHX, UTAH and SA..

Line is right were it should be. Cleveland was only favored by 5.5 at Miami and Cavs have the 2nd best record in the NBA. And its 3.5 not 3.

[IrwinFletcher]

Line is right were it should be. Cleveland was only favored by 5.5 at Miami and Cavs have the 2nd best record in the NBA. And its 3.5 not 3.

Good point and looks like the line has moved to 4..

[nonsense48]

DEX, did you look into any of what we discussed PM yesterday?

[Dexter]

DEX, did you look into any of what we discussed PM yesterday?

yeah, i found nothing on google.

[maddogmadden86]

anyone looking for a stock pick ATVI if you are interested in knowing more and why i feel it will go up email me at maddogmadden86@gmail.com

[cocknocker]

vassman86,

Get on down, my man. That's the kind of handicapping that I'm looking for to spend my money on. I think that you may have just jumped to the head of the class with that pick. Good info, brother. Keep up the good work. I actually have a spin on how we should invest my money on this game though. With the information that you just handed me, I instantly like the over due to the adjustment made by the line maker to what is the usual totals line. 195 down to 189.5 (opening) That's a 5.5 point adjustment.

1/5 12:28pm Ceasars the line went from 191 to 192
1/5 11:47am Nugget the line went up to 192
1/5 11.51am Hilton the line went up to 192
1/5 12:28pm Imperial the line went up to 192
1/5 10:58am Palms the line STARTED AT 189.5 went up to 191 only so far

So what I am seeing is a wise guy move was made at the Palms for the over. In other words the line maker made an adjustment in response to the continued heavy action on the under with an immediate reverse movement. However he won't move it over the usual 195, I promise you. "Under" players have been getting fat off of this play to the tune of 7 out of those 8 contests. the wise guy move caused a trigger effect and moved the line up sharply. So much so that it opened on most books already up 2.5 points.

The consensus even shows that 66% of bettors are on the under, yet the line went up 2.5 points. Now isn't it just at least a little strange that the wise guy play was made at the Las Vegas Hotel that the Maloof Brothers own and operate? Boy would I sure like to know those guys on a personal level. Know what they know.

Let's bang the over, Vassman86

[The_Kid]

Gonna wait for more information on Bogut and see if there is any movement.

Bogut is a game-time decision, Irwin.

[maddogmadden86]

i find it extremely suspicious as well CK that the maloof brothers can run a sports book and own a NBA team, to bad their company and team both suck but apparently they have been doing something right because they can still keep them in business due to the hard economic times that have catapulted their stock price down to all time lows and with a boat load of debt on hand they have to know something to continue their day to day operations

[cocknocker]

Alright, play number 2 has been made:

Courtesy of vassman86

Milwaukee/Toronto over 191.5 (bought a hook to get under the key #)
Milwaukee/Toronto over 95 (small)

[cocknocker]

Okay, the final plays update

Utah-9.5 (Dexter's pick)
Milwaukee/Toronto over 191.5
Milwaukee/Toronto over 95 1st half (small)

[Killer Chihuahua]

Bucks -7.5 (1 point buy)

The Bucks are 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS in home games this season. They are currently on an 8-3 ATS run. The Raptors are 3-8 in their last 11 road games and I have them going down by double digits tonight, playing back-to-back against a Bucks team that has had a day to rest its legs. The Raptors are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win. The Bucks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 vs. Eastern Conference.

[IrwinFletcher]

Thanks Kid..

[Pick'nParlays]

any thoughts on Sac/Nets over 200.5? I feel like with Kevin Martin being back in the lineup that this could be a smart over. thoughts?

[cocknocker]

Killer Chihuahua

It's getting to be very hard to ignore the value in taking the Bucks. Here we have a team that overachieved, playing a team that may be without their star center. Obviously the Bucks have a better guard tandem than the Raptors. Despite the HEAVY action on the Raptors, the line jumps over a key number. Extraordinary...

[nonsense48]

the under in the ind/den game is looking to be a better wager than taking the pts. with ind.

[alittlemoresound]

With all the denver losses comming last week. I think the NUGGS are good for a cover tonight. Pacers have covered and won recently as well. look for a close game but denver will put it away in the 4th.

[MrSink]

Hey guys no chance to under 220 points in pacers/nuggets
My todays plays:
Indiana-Denver over 221.5
GS over 104.5

[Dexter]

the under in the ind/den game is looking to be a better wager than taking the pts. with ind.

seeing value on that high number? i'm riding the over in that one.

[cocknocker]

willpies, xxxvince, ragiche, Irwin Fletcher, Killer Chihuahua, you guys have sold me on the Bucks. The moneyline is even correct for a cover.

Bucks-7.5

[Pick'nParlays]

CK
With Kevin Martin being back in would you take the over in Net/Sac game. 200.5?

[Turkish]

CK

troy murphy 's rebound+point total over under 24.5 or over 24.5 ? what do you think? denver give more rebound chances and troy is a good rebounder..can that be over 24.5 (point+reb total)?

and who will play against carmelo today? granger-murphy-daniels ?

[cocknocker]

What an nice two way it would be if i were to.....