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Well since I've started this, I better come out with some solid picks for 2 night
Indeed I've been hot at NBA, mostly part of what I'm learning here, so thank you all and special thx to CK!
I have to say, i rather bet on totals than on spreads, and the 219 at Utah is really tempting, but if Utah blows the Warriors the game will get below the number....I'm not sure!
On the other game the 223 that my book is already showing is to high for me to get the OVER so no bet for me!
So far I'm only playing DENVER -8 (hook buy, CK style). Denver will get this cover. There isn't any strong trend that supports this, but if the linesmaker made this the third highest line that Denver have got all season (1st was -16 at home vs the Warriors and 2nd was -13 at home vs the Wolves) maybe it's because he wants some money on Indiana
CheersComment -
Hey CK... First time poster in your thread. If you've taken a look at my tread at all you know that I promote a certain system. Simply stated a team fits when they play 3 consecutive games in a row (on the road) versus the opposite conference. The reason I'm posting here is that Indiana fits this system tonight.
Just a couple of quick points: In this system so far this year the Eastern Conference Teams are 15-5. Indiana hasn't lost by more than 8 in its last 10 games. Denver hasn't won by more than 8 in its last 11 games. I have capped this game at Denver - 5. I'm buying 1.5 and Taking Indiana +10.
Maybe we can get a Nuggets 9 point victory... WE ALL WIN.
Thanks... Good Luck!!Comment -
maybe i misunderstood you - this is not the second highest line denver has had all year. they've been double digit fav's a few times.So far I'm only playing DENVER -8 (hook buy, CK style). Denver will get this cover. There isn't any strong trend that supports this, but if the linesmaker made this the second highest line that Denver have got all season is because he wants some money on Indiana
CheersComment -
After yesterdays big games in Washington , Toronto and New York it's really hard to get good pick in tonights games.
guys, have u any ideas to play today?
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In my opinion best picks for today are denver with low H -6.5 and Toronto after good game against orlandoComment -
What do you think about denver?
it's good to play nuggets with low handy?
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DEXTER or anyone really.
I don't imagine that CK has hit the wood yet this early, but yesterday we were talking about OHIO V T. and for obvious reasons I am considering a fade on the money line. If I have 8 units on T. -7 and can get the moneyline for O. at +270, I figure 3 units to come out even if O. pulls a miracle. Does this seam sound?Comment -
A trick question? Maybe no bet is the play. After all the recent good fortune and seeing how tight and unpredictable the board appears to be, I think the best bet might be to step back, take a deep breath and be happy for the extra bread. Play 10-30% less then you think you should just knowing that the book took a beating and are playing it tight. That being said I would think think my best suggestions are:
Denver -7.5 (1pt buy) -waiting on this, the $ is on Ind at the moment so hoping for a bonus line move-
T. -7 (if early)
Utah ML
I also may fade myself in the wake of CK's dire prediction and take O. on the ML, still pondering it.
Adding and locked:New Jersey Nets
Spread -3½ -110Comment -
I'm goin with:
Indiana +10 (not too heavy)
UTAH -8.5 (heavier)
Denver -6.5 (Big)
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The Spurs / Heat line looks solid and too close to call.
The Bucks are too favored for as mediocre as they are, laying off this as well.Comment -
I have to go with TORONTO!
I know the line is correct (according to the power ratings) but I have to fade the bucks! Toronto seems to be steping up.
taking TOR +8.5 (locked)Comment -
College Basketball Parlay of the Day
Mississippi State-7.5
George Mason-12
Utah State-13
SMU-1.5
Jacksonville State-16Comment -
Hello there guys,well we all know that it's a bad day for us in the nba.But with the help of ck and joana with their picks ravens(ck) over orl/tor game(joana),which i play it very heavy,it takes off some of the pressure on us to lose money.Thanks guys.
I would like also to share my plays for tonight's game.(be fully appreciated and accept all suggestions). Yesterday,most of the dogs cover(except for lal).I think tonight will be the day of revenge.So my plays are:
Sas +1.5(projected) I can't go against the spurs if they become dogs it's very hard to go against them.They was beaten earlier this year but they are not in 100%.So with the big 3 of sa are back in full strength with rest and with revenge in their eyes it's possible they can win this game easily.
Sac +5.5(projected) With the healthy martin is back plus the absence of harris(hamstring) the kings can cover or win su in this game.Remember that sac already lost 10 straight road games and they need this game so bad.If harris will play,he will have limited min. and his game also will be limited with his current inj.With sac a run and gun type of team I think the nets can't catch up with them.
Mil -4.5(projected) We know tor won yesterday against a powerful orl team.Remember,this is a bb game for tor.Eventhough tor have a better ats rec. against the bucks hth 3-1.I think tor is tired,with that game against the magic plus the travel.With the bucks having a rest day and playing supperb basketball in their home turf.I predict that mil will blow this game easily.I know tor beat them earlier of the season,but that game was jefferson playing with inj.+redd is not in 100%(that's why this rest is very important for them).The bucks will continue covering spreads at home(remember they are one of the teams having higher percentage in covering the spread).J.O and J.C are still questionable for this game.I still remember what ck said and I quote:If a player plays in the game coming from an injury there will be min. mixing and will affect the plays. (playing very heavy)
also playing:gsw/utah over 219 we all know whether what happens in this ball game both teams will continue to shoot as in there is no tomorrow(medium play)already locked
So that's it guys waiting for some comments and suggestions.Yesterday dogs day,today revenge day.(This is my 1st deep research)Comment -
GOOD DAY GENTS. my plays for this fine day are as follows:utah-10 large they always beat GS by DD's and i see no difference in this game. leaning to taking the points and ind-8. i think the spread is 3-4 pts to high but this is a tough 1 for me in the fact den is 1 of my fav teams and i hate fading them but this may be one of those games. i'm still leaning hard with tex-8. just too powerful and fast for my beloved buckeyes. when i lock in i'll post. GOOD LUCK ALLComment -
I think the bookies know what i'm thinking.Sas -3.5,Njn -4,Mil -8.5. Wow! But I'm still sticking to my heavy play of the day mil.I know that tor is playing better of late,but the bucks also playing better at home,with tor going btb+injuries.I'll go with the healthy team on this one with rest.Comment -
Took San Antonio -3.5 and Toronto +8.5Comment -
just one play today give me Utah and call it a day!!!Comment -
Devon, gotcha, i will also add Notre Dame
Anyway with the early returns in so far I am liking the offerings of:
Wilforth/JohnMorr08/nonsense48 Indiana + whatever
joanapoker Toronto+8.5 (they are 3-1 straight up in BrewTown after all)
Dexter Utah-9.5 (1 point buy)
billcat-New Jersey-3.5 (This is actually my game and side that I had in mind cuzz K-Mart's back)
And on to brass taxes:
Power ranking margins for the day:
Miami-1
New Jersey-9
Milwaukee-8
Utah-11
Denver-8Comment -
Play number 1 has been made!
Utah-9.5 with a 1 point buy (Dexters' pick)
Waiting out the others to see what the line does. Indiana is looking better by the second though! And more than likely I am gonna play New Jersey, especially if brittle Devin Harris is out and K-Mart is inComment -
Hey CK I have a question?
I read on a post that you make a living betting. I also read on the post where you took Boston against Golden State that you didn't get crushed because you put a ML bet on Golden State. So I want to ask you what other plays do you make on a daily basis and why you only share some of the plays and not others?Comment -
nmComment -
i'm off the spurs - waaaaay higher than what the line should be imo....Comment -
CK just make an NHL pick. Edmonton and thats all that you need to know
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line dropping a tad on utah - public money has been on gs thus far, plus maggete returning might be playing a small part in that...Comment -
Well, the one thing that bothers me about taking New Jersey is the fact that they had two straight overtime games back to back and only one day's rest. But the Kings are mixing minutes with the reurn of K-Mart, and that in its'self is never good. Then there is the home record for the Nets, which is abysmal. SO because of that I have had problems pushing the button.
Toronto is also playing a back to back, but the thing is that they actually DO have the Bucks number on the road. 3-1 straight up in another teams building is impressive. However, Calderon is out with a hamstring, and Jermaine O'Neal is not playing with consistent regularity and cannot be counted on to give any production. I think that the Raptors may have played over their heads against the Magic. Will Solomon is not a deft ball handler to say the least, and I am sure that Parker can't be counted on to produce 26 points night in and night out. Did the Raptors get their signature "wounded" win only to tank it tonight againt a Bucks squad coming home off a back to back home an home series with the Bobcats? Well the second game was a blowout loss, so they may be in the mood to rebound and play well in this one. Then again Bogut sat out the 2nd game with back spasms, so we'll have to se how he responds to game action tonight.
Indiana is a young team and too stupid to know when they are beat. They just keep on chucking shots up for no reason even when it is not the best idea to do so. Their helter skelter attack could present a few problems for Denver. The Nuggets have been atrocious on the boards in their last 5 games grabbing only 36 rebounds per contest, while the Pacers have grabbed a respectable 44. Because of that Denver is giving up 109 points on average in their last 5 games, compared to the Pacers 108.6. In order for me to back the Nuggets, they would have to shore things up on the defensive end as well as the boards. Because of the amount of points involved in this one and the recent work of both squads, this line seems a bit inflated especially when a peek at the last 5 games between these teams in Denver had average lines of 5.5. Of note, Denver however has the best shooting percentage in the NBA over their last 5 games shooting a blazing hot 51.7% compared to the Pacers 48.1 which isn't too shabby at all...
As far as Utah is concerned...I think that the board has made all of the points that I could possibly make on that game. The Warriors cave in out in Salt Lake on the regular.
In the case of the Spurs and the Heat game, I see an adjustment by the linemaker in response to all of the unders happening. Here's what happened: The average over/under line for the games in Miami have been 184.5, which produced a 4-1 for the under record. The actual average combined scores between the teams is 180.6, which obviously is the totals line for this game. But the numbers of the average combined scores is skewed somewhat by the 86-70 debacle way back in 2003. Obviously the linemaker used information gathered from that game to get his total line as I know that i used it to come up with the 180.5. but the Spurs are giving up 95.8 in their last 5 games and Miami is giving up 89.4. Those numbers combined add up to 185.2. I think that in response to the linemakers adjustment from 184.5 on average to 180 for this game should be faded and the over looks like the intelligent call for this one. He made that adjustment for a reason. San Antonio is 3-1 for the over in their last 4 games, and Miami is 2-1 for the over in their last 3. I may end up taking a stab at the over the short numberComment -
Love the Spurs in revenge games they usually return the favor in the next meeting. I remember last month when the Nuggets blew out the Spurs in SA and the rematch in Denver they returned the favor. Spurs big tonight.Comment -
I'm with you with the over of the sas/mia game.CK,what do you think about my simple research that i just wrote.Need advice and comments.Comment -
How about the Over/Under of 220 on Utah/GS? Utah games have only gone over that total once in their last 5 games and that game went into 2OT. Golden State has gone over that total in 3 of their last 4.
Over/Under 223 Den/Ind. Den has been under this total at least their last 3 games at home. Pacers have been over this total only once in the last 6 games, but in each game both team scored at least 103 points.
I am leaning under on both. Thoughts?Comment
