with kmart coming back i think the kings will cover i remember last time he came back they ending up winning outright, the nets play pathetic at home as i watch them every time they play living on the jersey shore, d harris might not play and with him out i see the kings getting the cover here, it was the first thing that came to my mind and when normally those type of picks hit , also wiht 3/4 of the money on the nets to cover i like this play even more i know CK doesnt like it but i'm play it for my own shits and giggles plus i like to have some action on games i watch
Comment
Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#108
good move playing the over in toronto - calderon is a half court pg - with him out, the raptors should run more....
Comment
wangichu
SBR Wise Guy
11-07-08
946
#109
like milwaukee of toronto's home upset of the magic. Milwaukee has been solid this year and toronto is flaky at best. Add to that a little reverse line movement bumping the line from -7.5 to -8.5 with 80% money on toronto says that the books are preparing for a late blitzing of bets on the bucks
MIL -7.5
I don't really like this board much otherwise, but i know that the jazz have a sour taste in their mouth after getting trounced by the lake show and golden state is the perfect team to take it out on. The jazz have become very good at establishing early leads on warriors and the bounce back factor makes me feel good about it happening again. Last year, utah had halftime leads of 13, 19, and 11 (the latter even being on the road) and you can't tell me that the warriors are better without baron. In 2006, the jazz weren't as perfect but that's what keeps me from feeling like i'm trying to beat a dead horse. They played the warriors twice during their late season surge and the 2nd meeting earlier in the year was on the road back before utah was even marginal on the road. Their first meeting in 2006, the jazz jumped out to a 19 point lead so it's something that they have been able to do at home in the past. I'm sure that the game spread is safe too, but i'm happy taking the half and getting out before anything too crazy happens... may still take the game, but right now leaning...
UTAH -6 1st half
Comment
zackattack
SBR High Roller
11-06-08
218
#110
Originally posted by cocknocker
willpies, xxxvince, ragiche, Irwin Fletcher, Killer Chihuahua, you guys have sold me on the Bucks. The moneyline is even correct for a cover.
Bucks-7.5
wow my guy has bucks -9
Comment
mmaddness08
SBR Rookie
11-21-08
39
#111
Hey CK,
Playing in NHL Pittsburgh. Great value on a team with this much firepower at +115 ML.
In hoops Gonna play the Morrison play of Indiana.
Also I really like Utah/Golden State to play under. 221 is a high number and the book is trapping us based on rep of Golden State playing high scoring games. That and both teams are rested and the first half will be low scoring as both teams slow to find rhythm. This and the fact these 2 played an epic playoff battle not long ago, they have enough tape on each other and intensity will be up.
In College Hoops liking Valparaiso +7 over Wisc-Milwaukee. I enjoy these less profile schools to wager on more then the big boys. And this game falls under a favorable trend where the public number.
Also with you on the Buckeyes. Going to buy a point or 2 possibly. The seniors will play there hearts out for State tonight and this is also a under play, especially if you can under 54 as seen at some books. Ohio State offense is not explosive and they manage Pryor on the play calling to keep him comfortable in the Zone Reads where he doesn't have to win the game for them and Beanie Wells is healthy now and if not for injuries, he could have very well had a shot at the Heisman. So Ohio St will use ball control to keep Texas off the field. Texas was number 2 in the nation against run, but that again is misleading as how many teams run in the Big 12. Play under 54
Final card
NHL- Penguins +115
College- Valparaiso +7
NBA- Pacers +pts buying 3 pts
NBA- Jazz/Warriors under 221
Buckeyes +8-10.5 range, gonna shop around
Buckeyes/Texas under 54
May everyone have a profitable evening
Comment
bmw530i
Restricted User
04-19-08
4058
#112
Lets get the Raptors/Bucks Over the total tonight CK!
Comment
cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#113
The Shogun of Harlem, baby. Damn that was a funny movie!
Comment
maddogmadden86
SBR Wise Guy
11-08-08
898
#114
also with the line opening at +6 for the kings and all the money going to the nets and reverse line movement coming into effect i'm really liking the kings to cover here
Comment
nonsense48
SBR MVP
12-15-08
2927
#115
Originally posted by Dexter
seeing value on that high number? i'm riding the over in that one.
i'll look closer but 222' seems high. especially with den coming off of a recent high score with the thunder and ind high with sac. time for both to come back down to earth i think.
Comment
killersweet
SBR MVP
12-02-08
1483
#116
I am going down with Toronto tonight:-)
Comment
nonsense48
SBR MVP
12-15-08
2927
#117
Originally posted by Dexter
yeah, i found nothing on google.
DEX,i found a list of them on google "handicapping tools"
Comment
Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#118
this thread is on fire today
pm me the link nonsense...thx.
Comment
nonsense48
SBR MVP
12-15-08
2927
#119
Originally posted by Dexter
this thread is on fire today
pm me the link nonsense...thx.
google search engine and search"handicapping tools" i saw micro there.
Comment
nonsense48
SBR MVP
12-15-08
2927
#120
Originally posted by MrSink
Dexter good decision playing indiana denver over
tell me why you like the over in this game? for the season ind has been involved in 5 gms and den just3 with higher total's than 222
Comment
Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#121
Originally posted by maddogmadden86
also with the line opening at +6 for the kings and all the money going to the nets and reverse line movement coming into effect i'm really liking the kings to cover here
where do you see it opening at 6?
i actually asked this question the other day, but no one responded.....can anyone confirm how accurate the consensus "opener" column of lines is right here on sbr?
Comment
maddogmadden86
SBR Wise Guy
11-08-08
898
#122
hey ck with the nuggets averagin 112 points their last 5 games and the team total being 115 agaisnt the pacers who dont play D and love to play run and gun along with the nuggets what you think about the team total going over the mark?
Comment
cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#123
Dexter,
SBR's opening numbers are sometimes a little off.
Comment
maddogmadden86
SBR Wise Guy
11-08-08
898
#124
dex it actually only open at +6 at the kings owners casino the las vegas sands which makes me like it even more or less
Comment
nonsense48
SBR MVP
12-15-08
2927
#125
DEX and SINK jmo
Comment
Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#126
Originally posted by cocknocker
Dexter,
SBR's opening numbers are sometimes a little off.
i know, sportsinsights.com....
Comment
joanapoker
Restricted User
12-09-08
2275
#127
Originally posted by cocknocker
So what I am seeing is a wise guy move was made at the Palms for the over. In other words the line maker made an adjustment in response to the continued heavy action on the under with an immediate reverse movement.
Let's bang the over, Vassman86
CK, here do u see the wise guy moves? How much do u have to bet for casinos/bookies mark u as a wise guy? +20K?
these Wise guy thing seems like inside trading at stocks
Comment
Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#128
Originally posted by joanapoker
CK, here do u see the wise guy moves? How much do u have to bet for casinos/bookies mark u as a wise guy? +20K?
these Wise guy thing seems like inside trading at stocks
great analogy joana
Comment
joanapoker
Restricted User
12-09-08
2275
#129
So, for what is worth:
FINAL CARD for today:
UTA-9.5 (I'm following the thread) DEN-8 (my pick; money is in Indiana and the line keeps going up for the Nuggets, my bokkie DEN-9.5) TOR+8.5(my pick, they will cover this one and keep it close) OHIO St+8 (CK pick) TOR/MIL OVER 191.5 (CK pick / Wise guy move)
gl all
Comment
peterpan19
Restricted User
11-02-08
3377
#130
ok so far we have as plays for tonight: Utah-9.5 (Dexter's pick) Milwaukee/Toronto over 191.5 Milwaukee/Toronto over 95 1st half (small) Mil -7.5
right ?
ok my plays for the early games:
Mia +4 (7-2 ATS at home vs Spurs and on fire right now, should be a close one, so I take the points here)
Sac +5 (5-2 SU in jersey, so they have there number, also other wrote about it a lot)
gl all
edit: texas -8, locked in this one more than a week ago
Comment
bmw530i
Restricted User
04-19-08
4058
#131
Ck for you...hope you don't mind me putting this in your thread...
The BOOKS best bow down....to your ...
Comment
cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#132
I think that this experience is very beneficial for the board as a whole. Kind of refreshing. Almost like walking into your backyard naked.....while it's raining and hot at the same time. I don't know..whatever...
Final plays homies
Bucks-7.5
Bucks/Raptors over 191.5
Bucks/Raptors over 95 1st half
Jazz-9.5
Still waiting on Ohio State to get just one more point so i can take it up to 10, but if not, i won't buy any points and play it straight at 8, and the moneyline.
Incidently the line and the moneyline are not corresponding correctly. -330 is indicative of a -7 point spread for Texas, but the +270 for Ohio State is indicative of a +7.5 line.
Comment
danrman
SBR MVP
08-30-08
2696
#133
CK,,,,quality stuff on the over/under w/ vassman.. best i've seen.. i hope this pans out
Comment
cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#134
joanapoker,
despite the fact that I loathe the site, Vegas Insiders.com is the search engine that I know of for tracking the exact moment a wise guy play goes down. You have to learn how to read line movments, but once you do, it is very easy to see the way it goes down. My Missus is a pro at reading wise guy plays now and she has been waering for only her 2nd year.
peterpan19,
You are correct. I would like to thank the board in advance for making such great picks, and offering up such sound advice. I like the thoroughness of research for the board today, and the diversity of the board as well. Hell, I may end up switching up speeds and doing things this way every day....
Comment
maddogmadden86
SBR Wise Guy
11-08-08
898
#135
hey CK does styles have any opinion on the kings game or is she not following them anymore just the bobcats, also she needs to start getting into the mix of things i know covers made her never want to post again but she adds a different style to the thread, also were in the world is NightRidah?
Comment
DevilDog
SBR High Roller
12-27-08
190
#136
It is hard for me to take a team like Denver that has NOT covered this spread in their last 10 games and go against a team like Indiana that has NOT lost by more than this line in the last 10.
Comment
cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#137
maddog,
Sorry about that, i didn't include her play. She likes Sacramento/New Jersey to go under 202 She pointed to Devin Harris being out and also K-Mart coming back. As far as nightridah is concerned he'll be around sometime in late Februrary. He's on a little vacation.
Comment
maddogmadden86
SBR Wise Guy
11-08-08
898
#138
little vacation from gambling or he just living the life now lol
Comment
cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#139
He's just living the life right now. He'll be home soon.