Leans for Monday 1/5/08 Wager With CK's Money Day

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  • MrSink
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-30-08
    • 8087

    #106
    Dexter good decision playing indiana denver over
    Comment
    • maddogmadden86
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-08-08
      • 898

      #107
      with kmart coming back i think the kings will cover i remember last time he came back they ending up winning outright, the nets play pathetic at home as i watch them every time they play living on the jersey shore, d harris might not play and with him out i see the kings getting the cover here, it was the first thing that came to my mind and when normally those type of picks hit , also wiht 3/4 of the money on the nets to cover i like this play even more i know CK doesnt like it but i'm play it for my own shits and giggles plus i like to have some action on games i watch
      Comment
      • Dexter
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 12-24-08
        • 25829

        #108
        good move playing the over in toronto - calderon is a half court pg - with him out, the raptors should run more....
        Comment
        • wangichu
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-07-08
          • 946

          #109
          like milwaukee of toronto's home upset of the magic. Milwaukee has been solid this year and toronto is flaky at best. Add to that a little reverse line movement bumping the line from -7.5 to -8.5 with 80% money on toronto says that the books are preparing for a late blitzing of bets on the bucks

          MIL -7.5

          I don't really like this board much otherwise, but i know that the jazz have a sour taste in their mouth after getting trounced by the lake show and golden state is the perfect team to take it out on. The jazz have become very good at establishing early leads on warriors and the bounce back factor makes me feel good about it happening again. Last year, utah had halftime leads of 13, 19, and 11 (the latter even being on the road) and you can't tell me that the warriors are better without baron. In 2006, the jazz weren't as perfect but that's what keeps me from feeling like i'm trying to beat a dead horse. They played the warriors twice during their late season surge and the 2nd meeting earlier in the year was on the road back before utah was even marginal on the road. Their first meeting in 2006, the jazz jumped out to a 19 point lead so it's something that they have been able to do at home in the past. I'm sure that the game spread is safe too, but i'm happy taking the half and getting out before anything too crazy happens... may still take the game, but right now leaning...

          UTAH -6 1st half
          Comment
          • zackattack
            SBR High Roller
            • 11-06-08
            • 218

            #110
            Originally posted by cocknocker
            willpies, xxxvince, ragiche, Irwin Fletcher, Killer Chihuahua, you guys have sold me on the Bucks. The moneyline is even correct for a cover.

            Bucks-7.5
            wow my guy has bucks -9
            Comment
            • mmaddness08
              SBR Rookie
              • 11-21-08
              • 39

              #111
              Hey CK,

              Playing in NHL Pittsburgh. Great value on a team with this much firepower at +115 ML.
              In hoops Gonna play the Morrison play of Indiana.
              Also I really like Utah/Golden State to play under. 221 is a high number and the book is trapping us based on rep of Golden State playing high scoring games. That and both teams are rested and the first half will be low scoring as both teams slow to find rhythm. This and the fact these 2 played an epic playoff battle not long ago, they have enough tape on each other and intensity will be up.
              In College Hoops liking Valparaiso +7 over Wisc-Milwaukee. I enjoy these less profile schools to wager on more then the big boys. And this game falls under a favorable trend where the public number.
              Also with you on the Buckeyes. Going to buy a point or 2 possibly. The seniors will play there hearts out for State tonight and this is also a under play, especially if you can under 54 as seen at some books. Ohio State offense is not explosive and they manage Pryor on the play calling to keep him comfortable in the Zone Reads where he doesn't have to win the game for them and Beanie Wells is healthy now and if not for injuries, he could have very well had a shot at the Heisman. So Ohio St will use ball control to keep Texas off the field. Texas was number 2 in the nation against run, but that again is misleading as how many teams run in the Big 12. Play under 54

              Final card
              NHL- Penguins +115
              College- Valparaiso +7
              NBA- Pacers +pts buying 3 pts
              NBA- Jazz/Warriors under 221
              Buckeyes +8-10.5 range, gonna shop around
              Buckeyes/Texas under 54

              May everyone have a profitable evening
              Comment
              • bmw530i
                Restricted User
                • 04-19-08
                • 4058

                #112
                Lets get the Raptors/Bucks Over the total tonight CK!
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #113
                  The Shogun of Harlem, baby. Damn that was a funny movie!
                  Comment
                  • maddogmadden86
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-08-08
                    • 898

                    #114
                    also with the line opening at +6 for the kings and all the money going to the nets and reverse line movement coming into effect i'm really liking the kings to cover here
                    Comment
                    • nonsense48
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-15-08
                      • 2927

                      #115
                      Originally posted by Dexter
                      seeing value on that high number? i'm riding the over in that one.
                      i'll look closer but 222' seems high. especially with den coming off of a recent high score with the thunder and ind high with sac. time for both to come back down to earth i think.
                      Comment
                      • killersweet
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-02-08
                        • 1483

                        #116
                        I am going down with Toronto tonight:-)
                        Comment
                        • nonsense48
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-15-08
                          • 2927

                          #117
                          Originally posted by Dexter
                          yeah, i found nothing on google.
                          DEX,i found a list of them on google "handicapping tools"
                          Comment
                          • Dexter
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 12-24-08
                            • 25829

                            #118
                            this thread is on fire today

                            pm me the link nonsense...thx.
                            Comment
                            • nonsense48
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-15-08
                              • 2927

                              #119
                              Originally posted by Dexter
                              this thread is on fire today

                              pm me the link nonsense...thx.
                              google search engine and search"handicapping tools" i saw micro there.
                              Comment
                              • nonsense48
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-15-08
                                • 2927

                                #120
                                Originally posted by MrSink
                                Dexter good decision playing indiana denver over
                                tell me why you like the over in this game? for the season ind has been involved in 5 gms and den just3 with higher total's than 222
                                Comment
                                • Dexter
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 12-24-08
                                  • 25829

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by maddogmadden86
                                  also with the line opening at +6 for the kings and all the money going to the nets and reverse line movement coming into effect i'm really liking the kings to cover here
                                  where do you see it opening at 6?

                                  i actually asked this question the other day, but no one responded.....can anyone confirm how accurate the consensus "opener" column of lines is right here on sbr?
                                  Comment
                                  • maddogmadden86
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 11-08-08
                                    • 898

                                    #122
                                    hey ck with the nuggets averagin 112 points their last 5 games and the team total being 115 agaisnt the pacers who dont play D and love to play run and gun along with the nuggets what you think about the team total going over the mark?
                                    Comment
                                    • cocknocker
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 11-06-08
                                      • 8001

                                      #123
                                      Dexter,

                                      SBR's opening numbers are sometimes a little off.
                                      Comment
                                      • maddogmadden86
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 11-08-08
                                        • 898

                                        #124
                                        dex it actually only open at +6 at the kings owners casino the las vegas sands which makes me like it even more or less
                                        Comment
                                        • nonsense48
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-15-08
                                          • 2927

                                          #125
                                          DEX and SINK jmo
                                          Comment
                                          • Dexter
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 12-24-08
                                            • 25829

                                            #126
                                            Originally posted by cocknocker
                                            Dexter,

                                            SBR's opening numbers are sometimes a little off.
                                            i know, sportsinsights.com....
                                            Comment
                                            • joanapoker
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 12-09-08
                                              • 2275

                                              #127
                                              Originally posted by cocknocker
                                              So what I am seeing is a wise guy move was made at the Palms for the over. In other words the line maker made an adjustment in response to the continued heavy action on the under with an immediate reverse movement.

                                              Let's bang the over, Vassman86
                                              CK, here do u see the wise guy moves? How much do u have to bet for casinos/bookies mark u as a wise guy? +20K?

                                              these Wise guy thing seems like inside trading at stocks
                                              Comment
                                              • Dexter
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-24-08
                                                • 25829

                                                #128
                                                Originally posted by joanapoker
                                                CK, here do u see the wise guy moves? How much do u have to bet for casinos/bookies mark u as a wise guy? +20K?

                                                these Wise guy thing seems like inside trading at stocks
                                                great analogy joana
                                                Comment
                                                • joanapoker
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 12-09-08
                                                  • 2275

                                                  #129
                                                  So, for what is worth:

                                                  FINAL CARD for today:

                                                  UTA-9.5 (I'm following the thread)
                                                  DEN-8 (my pick; money is in Indiana and the line keeps going up for the Nuggets, my bokkie DEN-9.5)
                                                  TOR+8.5(my pick, they will cover this one and keep it close)
                                                  OHIO St+8 (CK pick)
                                                  TOR/MIL OVER 191.5 (CK pick / Wise guy move)

                                                  gl all
                                                  Comment
                                                  • peterpan19
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-02-08
                                                    • 3377

                                                    #130
                                                    ok so far we have as plays for tonight:
                                                    Utah-9.5 (Dexter's pick)
                                                    Milwaukee/Toronto over 191.5
                                                    Milwaukee/Toronto over 95 1st half (small)
                                                    Mil -7.5
                                                    right ?

                                                    ok my plays for the early games:
                                                    Mia +4 (7-2 ATS at home vs Spurs and on fire right now, should be a close one, so I take the points here)
                                                    Sac +5 (5-2 SU in jersey, so they have there number, also other wrote about it a lot)
                                                    gl all

                                                    edit: texas -8, locked in this one more than a week ago
                                                    Comment
                                                    • bmw530i
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 04-19-08
                                                      • 4058

                                                      #131
                                                      Ck for you...hope you don't mind me putting this in your thread...
                                                      The BOOKS best bow down....to your ...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • cocknocker
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-06-08
                                                        • 8001

                                                        #132
                                                        I think that this experience is very beneficial for the board as a whole. Kind of refreshing. Almost like walking into your backyard naked.....while it's raining and hot at the same time. I don't know..whatever...


                                                        Final plays homies

                                                        Bucks-7.5
                                                        Bucks/Raptors over 191.5
                                                        Bucks/Raptors over 95 1st half
                                                        Jazz-9.5


                                                        Still waiting on Ohio State to get just one more point so i can take it up to 10, but if not, i won't buy any points and play it straight at 8, and the moneyline.

                                                        Incidently the line and the moneyline are not corresponding correctly. -330 is indicative of a -7 point spread for Texas, but the +270 for Ohio State is indicative of a +7.5 line.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • danrman
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-30-08
                                                          • 2696

                                                          #133
                                                          CK,,,,quality stuff on the over/under w/ vassman.. best i've seen.. i hope this pans out
                                                          Comment
                                                          • cocknocker
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 11-06-08
                                                            • 8001

                                                            #134
                                                            joanapoker,

                                                            despite the fact that I loathe the site, Vegas Insiders.com is the search engine that I know of for tracking the exact moment a wise guy play goes down. You have to learn how to read line movments, but once you do, it is very easy to see the way it goes down. My Missus is a pro at reading wise guy plays now and she has been waering for only her 2nd year.

                                                            peterpan19,

                                                            You are correct. I would like to thank the board in advance for making such great picks, and offering up such sound advice. I like the thoroughness of research for the board today, and the diversity of the board as well. Hell, I may end up switching up speeds and doing things this way every day....
                                                            Comment
                                                            • maddogmadden86
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-08-08
                                                              • 898

                                                              #135
                                                              hey CK does styles have any opinion on the kings game or is she not following them anymore just the bobcats, also she needs to start getting into the mix of things i know covers made her never want to post again but she adds a different style to the thread, also were in the world is NightRidah?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • DevilDog
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 12-27-08
                                                                • 190

                                                                #136
                                                                It is hard for me to take a team like Denver that has NOT covered this spread in their last 10 games and go against a team like Indiana that has NOT lost by more than this line in the last 10.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • cocknocker
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 11-06-08
                                                                  • 8001

                                                                  #137
                                                                  maddog,

                                                                  Sorry about that, i didn't include her play. She likes Sacramento/New Jersey to go under 202 She pointed to Devin Harris being out and also K-Mart coming back. As far as nightridah is concerned he'll be around sometime in late Februrary. He's on a little vacation.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • maddogmadden86
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-08-08
                                                                    • 898

                                                                    #138
                                                                    little vacation from gambling or he just living the life now lol
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cocknocker
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                                      • 8001

                                                                      #139
                                                                      He's just living the life right now. He'll be home soon.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • maddogmadden86
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 11-08-08
                                                                        • 898

                                                                        #140
                                                                        understood
                                                                        Comment
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