You Will Love This Thread!!

[pubster77]

23 - 13 - 1 +29 Units

Miami Heat -3 at Sacramento (5 Units)

Are you sure you are adding your units won correctly?

If I understand right, you bet NYK +10 for 5 units and won.

But since you bought 2 points, I dont think you can increment your units won by 5 units, because a 5 unit bet wins around 3 units after a 2 point buy.

Am I missing something?

Thanks

[Luv2Poker]

Luv2Poker,

No i am a situational betting guy, so i handicap my own games with the help of my braintrust the PC Boys, but from time to time i will use a Morrison system wager too, especially in the FIRST game of a series, as from my experience, this is where the majority of the wins come from, I think it's hitting at a 85% clip to the best of my recollection.

The PC Play is derived from a play that all 5 of us collectively agree upon. And that is not an easy thing to get 5 guys who are heavyweights to agree upon a pick, so that is why there are only around 4-5 PC Plays a month on average.

Feedback greatly appreciated-Peace out

[pubster77]

Also I just want to point out that you still need to be right greater than 50% of the time in order to make money with a system like this.

If you are going to play a 3 game series where you will bet $100, $200, $400, then you are essentially risking $700 to win $100 and need to win 1/3 games at least 7/8 of the time to break even.

For example when you play roullette you have about a 48% chance of winning odd/even. but you will still lose no matter what betting system you play. the only possible way to win is by hitting greater than 50% of the time.

[DevilDog]

You do NOT need to be right on EACH WAGER more than 50% of the time. In fact even with a three game system like this you do NOT need to hit 33% of the wagers to make money because you can move the losses from a chase bet onto other bets.

Example....you lose $700 on a chase...you can divide that $700 10 different ways onto other bets. I don't have the time right now to explain this but when you bet like this you RARELY lose! And when you do lose you take that money (if you choose) and spread it out onto different chases.

Remember, THE BET is getting one out of THREE. The wager is ONE game at at time until you get the one win. Good chase systems win at an incredibly high rate.

As an example: Let's say you had started betting the Pacers against the Nuggets, then the Suns, and then the Lakers. If they had lost the first two (they actually lost the first game won the second game ATS) and then played tonight at the Lakers and WON ATS...the record would NOT be 1-2. The record would be 1-0. Because the BET was based on the results of UP TO THREE games...not each game!

You can see the incredible POWER of a system like this. But, AGAIN, you MUST start out small with the wagers. I HIGHLY recommend that you start wagering a 1/2 of 1% or go as little as a 1/4 of 1%. The small amounts you will be winning on a regular basis start adding up pretty good over time.

[pubster77]

As an example: Let's say you had started betting the Pacers against the Nuggets, then the Suns, and then the Lakers. If they had lost the first two (they actually lost the first game won the second game) and then played tonight at the Lakers and WON ATS...the record would NOT be 1-2. The record would be 1-0. Because the BET was based on the results of UP TO THREE games...not each game!

The record may be 1-0, but whenever you win you win 100, and when you lose you lose 700 (assuming 100/200/400 betting scheme).

so you need to win 7/8 times just to break even (7 wins = +700, 1 loss = -700).

Now if your chances of winning any of the games is exactly 50%, then you will win 7/8 times and lose 1/8 times over the long run.

The only way you can achieve a winning % of greater than 7/8 is by having a per game winning % of greater than 50%.

And because you have to factor in the juice, you need to win more than 52% of the time which is true regardless of your betting system.

[DevilDog]

Your math is NOT correct and those of us that run a system like this knows this! I will not debate the math! Just use the system yourself.

"Now if your chances of winning any of the games is exactly 50%, then you will win 7/8 times and lose 1/8 times over the long run."

You are not getting it!! I have bet this system for YEARS and I KNOW your numbers are wrong. You do NOT need to hit 50% of your wagers to win the BET. I think that is pretty damn obvious with the example I gave.

Just follow the system and you will see.

[pubster77]

Im not saying you dont know what your talking about. I really am trying to learn and figure this out. But im pretty sure my math is right.

Answer me this devil dog: if you can win money without being right 50% of the time, then surely you can win money betting on roulette right (reds/blacks, odds/evens)?

why wouldnt this system work with roullette but work with sports?

my answer is that in roullette its impossible to win more than 50% of the bets, whereas in sports you can win up to 57% and have an edge.

if your expected value on any bet is less than 0 you will lose money regardless of your betting system.

if you are betting on a game and buying 3 points you will have a negative expected value if you only win that bet 40-50% of the time.

Again this system may be a winner. But if it is a winner its because of the quality of the picks, not the betting system.

[keitht]

why does everyone talk about units instead of just saying i bet $50 dollars..... then people would understand better....

[keitht]

what is a unit considered.... 1 dollar for every unit? 10 dollars?

[JohnMorr08]

Keitht - the whole point to using Units is that it's different for each and every one of us. One person may bet $25 a game and that is a Unit so $50 is 2 Units, Etc. Some heavier players may play $1,000 as a Unit. When you just say Unit you know what you should bet. It's Universal.

Pubster - You are correct. My units (when a series is open) are often a little off. But only by 1 or 2. I post it the same all the time so to limit confusion. Regardless, when I post a bet say for 5 Units... I'm betting to win that much. I would officially change my units IF a series LOSES. I hope that makes sense. Basically as long as the series wins (regardless if it's on A, B or C) the Units are correct. It's when the series actually loses I would have to adjust the Units to reflect what I lost.

[JohnMorr08]

One more point - Pub - the system is based on 3 bets. If we play 10 series (trying to win 1 Unit on each) and they all win on the 3rd bet... our record would be 10 - 20 (33%) but we'd still be UP 10 Units. That is a losing record making a profit.

[pubster77]

One more point - Pub - the system is based on 3 bets. If we play 10 series (trying to win 1 Unit on each) and they all win on the 3rd bet... our record would be 10 - 20 (33%) but we'd still be UP 10 Units. That is a losing record making a profit.

I understand what you are saying. but if you win only 1/3 of the bets you make you wont be making a profit long term.

if each bet you make has a 2/3 chance of losing, then the probability of you losing three consecutive bets is 2/3*2/3*2/3 which is 8/27.

So that means out of 27 series you would lose 8 which isnt enough to make a profit.

[pubster77]

Pubster - You are correct. My units (when a series is open) are often a little off. But only by 1 or 2. I post it the same all the time so to limit confusion. Regardless, when I post a bet say for 5 Units... I'm betting to win that much. I would officially change my units IF a series LOSES. I hope that makes sense. Basically as long as the series wins (regardless if it's on A, B or C) the Units are correct. It's when the series actually loses I would have to adjust the Units to reflect what I lost.

I think there might be an error in your thinking. Here is why:

say right now you're up 40 units.

Bet one is for 2 units.

if you win this bet, then you would say you're up to 42 units (as the bet is to win two units)

now if you lose the bet you will say you are up 38 units when in fact it should probably be up 37 units.

Then you make the next bet which is to win 5 units. Say you win. You should be adding the 5 units to 37 to get a total of 42 units. But instead you will be adding the 5 units to 38 and get a total of 43 units.

So I think your total is still inflated a bit even though you havent lost a series.

You are adding units as if each bet is +100. Your system is still winning just not as much as posted.

But the details are very important because anybody can win if they are getting +100 odds after buying 2 points =)

[paddyrogue]

Woah, that was a cagey win last night, terrible refereeing though!

On a different point, Im with Bet Jamaica and they have limited me to buying only one point now because I have been winning too much under the system, do the math on that guys!

I'm off to Pinnacle to get some new bonuses and keep counting the dollars

[MJ]

I turned off the game after someone on the Heat fouled someone taking a 3 point shot. Heat were down by 3 or 4 points with 1 min left and I thought it was a sure loss. When I checked the scores 20 mins later I was flabbergasted.

A win is a win BABY!!!! Glad I bought that extra point. Thanks for that one CK.

[JohnMorr08]

24 - 13 - 1 +34 Units

The next "potential" series starts tomorrow with Orlando. I say 'potential' because it is a tough stretch and will test the Magic as they take on San Antonio, Sacramento and LA Lakers. I will test out the 'Filters' and cap the games to see where I stand. I want to be careful here because if they overlook Sac (don't cover) we will be relying on them VS LA with LOTS of $$ on the line.

PUB - I will try to be a lot more clear from here on out. My Units won are not inflated... as I said before I've been keeping it simple and would 'adjust' my true winnings if I LOST a series. You are correct - when I bet 2 units at (-150) and lose it's -3 not -2. BUT I keep it at 2 so not to confuse people because on bet B I'm still betting to WIN 5 Units based on the -3....

From here on out I'll post my own record as well as a new record based on trying to win $100 per series!

[JohnMorr08]

I think someone asked if I'm going to do this for Baseball - Yes I'll post the system for MLB in April sometime.

I'm also "testing" out a similar system for NHL over in that thread as well. Purely experimental though... not betting much at all. But it's something like 23 - 5 overall.

**Important Note - I personally do not use the same Book for all my picks. I use ONE book for this NBA system. I do not bet anything else with these plays. I suggest you do so as well if you want to be successful.

[therber2]

I took Miami -4.5 pts the other day...I hate my bookie.
Losing a somewhat large bet by .5 just really sucks. I should have listened to you. hahaha

Anyways, good calls John keep it going my man!
Lookin forward to the MLB too.

[NBA Hero]

same here. its a bummer and played it heavy also.

[pubster77]

keep up the good work =)

24/37 is an awesome clip to be hitting at

[DevilDog]

Now let me get this straight. You are 24-13 with each play right? But not each chase....right? a 24-13 chase record would NOT be good for a system like this. But a 24-13 wager record within the chase would be really good.

Let us know. I use this system and as far as actual TOTAL CHASE wins I am at 100%.

[pubster77]

Im pretty sure his chases are 100%

[JohnMorr08]

YES - In terms of a Chase the system (since posting) is actually 24 - 0. I've been posting them as individual plays and adjusting the Units.

[DevilDog]

Good deal!! LOL. Because if the CHASE was 24-13 you would be getting killed!!

Keep up the posting dude, this is a GREAT eye opener for many guys here. This type of system betting is the way to go as far as I am concerned.

Guys. Just follow the system! Stay disciplined. And start out with very small wagering amounts.

Don't let the issue with Orlando and the tough schedule bother you....anytime a system is undefeated you stay with it! Actually any time a system is successful as this system has been over the years you stay with it.

As far as buying the points....I am like the guy starting this thread...I will buy at different times and sometimes for different amounts. Last night I bought 3 and took Miami as they had gone to -5 at BetUs. That was not going to work for me at all.

Glad I did.

[woodyman]

taking orlando??

[JohnMorr08]

I just posted that I was taking Orlando +4.5. HOWEVER I went over to CK's thread and saw that San Antonio was a PC PLay!!

I am Passing on this A bet !! If SA does cover I'll nail Orlando versus Sacramento.


I have added a filter! PC Play on the opposite side = NO PLAY.

[DevilDog]

LOL! That could be a good filter but, honestly, those guys lose their share. But I am going to use that as a filter also.

[DevilDog]

Plenty of time to go in the Orlando game but we might end up regretting going with SA in that game!!

Well, this is what happens when we go against a very good system. A really good system is always better in the long run. Emotions and viewpoints are taking out of the equation.

I rarely step away from a system like this!!! Oh well.

[JohnMorr08]

Portland is definitely a play tonight. I'm waiting for Greek to release the ML. Otherwise I'll buy 1.5 and take Portland -1.5.

I'll have the official play and a breakdown for the 'newbies' later today.

[NBA Hero]

yup, i gave way on ORL also coz its a pc play.
and atl is still in vacation land. they dont plan to start competing just yet. the very best " no defense" is i have ever seen one. A game is definite candidate on "what not to do if you want to win", or to look at loopholes

Johnmorr.
you wont get to 2nd game coz port will win on first try.

GL

[JohnMorr08]

24 - 13 - 1 +34 Units (Chase 24 - 0)

Portland ML (-140) 2 Units So I'm betting 280 to win 200

NewComers:

Bet 140 to win 100

**Again I'm going to keep track in more detail for new people based on winning $100 per series HOWEVER, DO NOT bet that much if your bankroll can not sustain chasing all the way to bet C! Start off with $14 to win $10 if you have to...

[brooks85]

SO why is this system being sold at sp0rtsbettingchamp.com if people can just get it here for free??

[zackattack]

hi guys, was wondering if the rules for this system are posted anywhere........i would like to take a look. thanks.

[Bluehorseshoe]

If you can get 3 points at -170 would you do it on all your plays?


My local gives me that price.

[JohnMorr08]

brook - you have to go back and read some of the thread. I am NOT my man himself. I was affiliated at one time. If you are lucky enough to find it here.... you'll get the plays for NOTHING. Otherwise, you are paying.

Zack - the rules are posted as an attachment a page or 2 back. Let me know if the link works... otherwise I'll post it again.

Blue - absolutely If your local gives you that price for 3 you should go with it. I don't always buy 3. If you follow this thread you'll know how i'm playing each series. But as a rule of thumb 170 isn't bad for 3 pts.