You Will Love This Thread!!

peetlui · 01-14-09, 04:26 PM

Hi John, I enjoyed reading up on this system of yours but I do have one question that I need clarification on. Let's say ateam is starting a four game road trip with the first game being inter-conference but the rest being out of conference. Do you skip the first game and then start the chase or do you leave this series alone? One last question.....with a 10,000 bankroll what should be the amount of my first wager?

DevilDog · 01-14-09, 05:41 PM

The system says you start when a team from either conference goes to another conference and plays at LEAST three games against the opposite conference.

And as far as the bankroll, I have been chase betting for a long time and the SAFE way to chase bet is to wager NO more than 1% of your bankroll to START a bet. And it is even BETTER to wager about 1/2% to start out with.

Guys hear about the 1/2% deal and think it is ridiculous...but it is not. With a $10,000 bankroll you should be starting the with no more than $100 per bet. And an even better start amount would be $50.

The rule of thumb that I use is this...if you are going with a three game chase type system, which the east-west system is, then you can start out with 1%.

If you are betting a four game chase system then you should go with 1/2%.

JohnMorr08 · 01-14-09, 06:01 PM

Thanks Double D. Yes like he said... you start betting when a team is a play in the system. Regardless of what games come before or after...

As far as bet size.... 1% is a good rule of thumb. I'd start out with $100 if you plan on playing several series at once (like on the 16th). If we are playing 1 series and the next doesn't start for a while I'd step it up a little bit. I'll make a note when that situation comes up.

peetlui · 01-14-09, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by DevilDog

The system says you start when a team from either conference goes to another conference and plays at LEAST three games against the opposite conference.

And as far as the bankroll, I have been chase betting for a long time and the SAFE way to chase bet is to wager NO more than 1% of your bankroll to START a bet. And it is even BETTER to wager about 1/2% to start out with.

Guys hear about the 1/2% deal and think it is ridiculous...but it is not. With a $10,000 bankroll you should be starting the with no more than $100 per bet. And an even better start amount would be $50.

The rule of thumb that I use is this...if you are going with a three game chase type system, which the east-west system is, then you can start out with 1%.

If you are betting a four game chase system then you should go with 1/2%.

So am I correct in saying that as long as the team that's on the road is going up against three out out of conference teams consecutively (on the road of course) just ignore that first game that isn't out of conference and start the chase begining with the second game? For example:
Warriors@Timberwolves ignore this game
" @Bulls - begin the chase
" @Pistons - play if needed
" @Bucks - only as a last resort

Thanks for the time and knowledge pal.

Dexter · 01-14-09, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by JohnMorr08

I love it! It's great to have eveyone aboard. Just please do not deviate from the system. As for buying different points - I am afterall a Capper at heart so I try to justify the points I buy. So If I cap the game and don't think I need the points or need less, or I figure I shouldn't bet the series at all... then I follow my capping skills and intuition.

With everyone aboard we'll surely get some conversation about each series as well.

Be careful. Point being - the very first series this year should have been Sacramento (look it up)... I did NOT play that series because they were Atrocious... they had 0 wins at that time. I passed on the series. And it LOST. So read the PDF that I attached and look into this thread to get the plays!!!

you're referring to the series of games that started on 10/31 at miami?- why would the system not have been in play then? the kings were 0-1 at the time.

JohnMorr08 · 01-14-09, 11:05 PM

I don't have all the figures now that I had then Dex. It was way too early in the season to do too much capping. But they were a solid 1-7 pre-season (for whatever thats worth). The were predicted in the bottom 5 RPI.

Bottom line - I put a lot into the evaluation of these games on top of the system. So, I would have told everyone on here to PASS.

JohnMorr08 · 01-14-09, 11:08 PM

For the record - I did pass on another Sacramento series (check the thread) where they won bet A. And that will happen but trust me ... it is MORE important to avoid a 'chase' loss than to worry about a hand full wins.

JohnMorr08 · 01-15-09, 11:53 PM

Keep an eye on the opening lines for Milwaukee and San Antonio. Mil is -2 so I'll look for the ML.

Smogs · 01-16-09, 01:09 AM

Hey john, i understand that in the next series, milwaukee and san antonio are the plays? mil are -2 and i guess that is good value, want to get them early before the line jumps - if it jumps

Dexter · 01-16-09, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by JohnMorr08

I don't have all the figures now that I had then Dex. It was way too early in the season to do too much capping. But they were a solid 1-7 pre-season (for whatever thats worth). The were predicted in the bottom 5 RPI.

Bottom line - I put a lot into the evaluation of these games on top of the system. So, I would have told everyone on here to PASS.

gotcha - i wasnt aware that you just created the system this year. good luck tonight with the spurs/bucks. no line yet on the spurs, but they should be laying about 2.5 (even with brand possibly back). as ck has pointed out many times - minute mixing should be an issue for the sixers tonight. so him being back is not exactly a good thing just yet.

Dexter · 01-16-09, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Hey john, i understand that in the next series, milwaukee and san antonio are the plays? mil are -2 and i guess that is good value, want to get them early before the line jumps - if it jumps

that line should go to 3 at max if it even goes up. bogut is out for milw tonight.

http://my.journaltimes.com/post/woelfel-world-of-sports/bucks_head_west_without_bogut.html

JohnMorr08 · 01-16-09, 11:06 AM

Milwaukee's ML is -130 and San Antonio's is -160. Both of these are cheaper than buying the points.

My plays are
Milwaukee ML (-110) 4 Units
San Antonio ML (-140) 4 Units

I feel that we are getting good value here so I'm upping my bets. REMEMBER: Your bankroll MUST be able to sustain bets B and C should they be necessary. So don't increase your bet unless you can chase!

*I realize that Bogut is out - the rule with this system is to pass if a starter who averages more than 15 pts is out. Bogut averages 11. On top of that Sac has played TONS of minutes and are tired. I've capped the game at -8 for Mil. So, ML should = $$.

Good Luck Gentlemen

JohnMorr08 · 01-16-09, 11:08 AM

Dex - sorry for any confusion but i've been using this system for many years.... it wasn't created this year.

Dana4U · 01-16-09, 12:27 PM

Alright - ML on SA and MIL are the calls. How many points are you taking? As the spread moves throughout the day, need to know if you are taking the full 3 points or something different.

Thanks!

JohnMorr08 · 01-16-09, 12:33 PM

I liked Mil at -130 and loved it at -110. I put my initial bet in Mil -110... regardless Mil will have to win the game. Now... I'm going to watch the line closely because if they somehow become Dogs... I'll buy a point or 2 and take them again.

I trully believe that they win this game outright.

CashMoney · 01-16-09, 01:27 PM

I found out about this system last year. I've been paper playing it since the beginning of the season. 37 Wins no C bets and a ton of profit. I loaded my account today and have action on the Spurs and Bucks. Good luck to all.

schaapattack · 01-16-09, 03:46 PM

Sac -1 now..so Milw +4?

JohnMorr08 · 01-16-09, 04:59 PM

Yes - officially under the system Milw is +4. I still don't think they need the points. I won't deny that the line movement doesn't make me a little nervous but I see a bucks victory.

Good Luck

cs11787 · 01-16-09, 05:37 PM

That is the safe way to go but I guess if you got the line at -2.5 when it came out thinking it was going to go up because the public was on them, I guess its the same as playing them straight up as +1 considering they have to win the game outright. I didnt think it was going to go down this much!!!

ragiche · 01-16-09, 09:07 PM

John are you there?Please help me?I lose a ton this week and i'm hoping to trim down my losings.I played sa $1000.How much do you think i'm gonna lay on mil+1 right now.Very urgent.

JohnMorr08 · 01-16-09, 09:27 PM

ragiche - your biggest problem as far as I can tell is that you are betting too much. This is a chase system. So'll I'll be playing SA again to make up for the loss. You can not bet like that on each game... as you obviously can not afford to lose it.

I believe that ck suggested that you play SA and Mil for $500 each and then evaluate Atlanta.... You doubled your bet.

My best suggestion - Slow Down. It's "gambling" for a reason. You need to practice some "money management"....

ragiche · 01-16-09, 09:39 PM

Thanks for your wise thoughts john.It's just only problems comes to me at one time at the same time it's a bad time cause i'm losing.You know what i mean.Need the help very badly.What do you think?I already played mil pk a grand to cover my lose to sa.Do you think that i should bet the later games?Been thinking around $500 the max.

texhooper · 01-16-09, 11:50 PM

so if i'm understanding this correctly, assuming milwaukee hangs on for the win, the only system play tomorrow would be san antonio, bet b?

also, you can buy 3 points for -170 at beted. i don't think anyone's mentioned that site. i enjoy using it, it's very user friendly, and the few times i've requested a payout they always got my money to me within the amount of time they said they would. they're rated somewhere in the b range on this site, i believe. i haven't reached a point where i have done anything worthy of getting limited, so i can't give any insight into that. just thought i'd pass that along...

JohnMorr08 · 01-17-09, 01:26 AM

27 - 14 - 1 +37 Units

1/17
San Antonio at Chicago (-3) buy the 3 or take ML (whichever is cheaper) 7 Units

If you have played SA as your A bet raise your bet to your B level...
essentially you want to bet an amount that allows you to not only make up what you lost on A
But to still WIN an extra unit.

Best of luck

** There are a 'bunch' of games coming up so plan accordingly if you plan to use this system.

jakeandba · 01-17-09, 12:43 PM

Wow the line has already moved from SA -3 to -3.5...So SA is the play at -3....again..the system has a sense of humor since SA was a loser last night with the same team...ok i am in with SA then

therber2 · 01-17-09, 02:16 PM

John, are you upping your A and B as you gain units?

JohnMorr08 · 01-17-09, 02:19 PM

Yes I am. Anyone who is just starting out or if you do NOT have a separate book just for these plays... I do not suggest you raise your overall level until you've won at least 10-15 units.

jcljack25 · 01-17-09, 02:22 PM

John Im on SA ML -165 playing my B bet.

ManBearPig · 01-17-09, 02:31 PM

I was wondering what your take on th MIL game tonight was. I mean, I know they were a win last night and according to the system they are done. However, they are laying 3 against the friggin clippers. Not taking the system into place wouldn't you want to consider this game anyways. I mean MIL is coming of a win last night but it's not too far from SAC to LA and the clips are just bad. I think everyone knows the numbers and this seems too tempting not to take. Don't you think?

JohnMorr08 · 01-17-09, 02:38 PM

Man - 1st, MIL is NOT a play as far as this tread goes. They won for us last night and that's good enough.

Outside this thread I can see why they are tempting but I watched them up by about 25 last night... I felt good about it and felt it was a done deal only to come back and see them up 2 with 3 minutes left. It took everything they had to keep SAC off and get the win. I think they'll be a bit tired playing on the back end of back 2 back West Coast games after a win. Might be a good play but I'm NOT on it.

ManBearPig · 01-17-09, 02:47 PM

ya...logically it's probably a good idea not to push yur luck. Although they could cover...I saw the 4th last night and they could blow it as well. There are enough games today where this isn't a necessary play as there are much better plays. I will trust the system on this one and leave it alone...although if I didnt know about it I prob would've played them and lost...LOL

schaapattack · 01-17-09, 03:08 PM

Hi JM, I only have a roll of $500 right now because i took some big hits. How do i play the system with that small of a roll, or should i just play the system with individual bets and not buy the points to get my roll up higher. You said there would of only been 6 losses if you dont buy the 3 points so if i bet on them invidually w/out buying the points and if i lose 1 bet i just double my bet to get my original bet back is that a good idea to build my roll? ie, bet 25 dollars ...if i lose...50...if i lose 100 and so on. Or should i stay with the system and start with 5 bucks.

schaapattack · 01-17-09, 03:10 PM

Whats the min. bankroll you should have starting bet A for 5 dollars.

JohnMorr08 · 01-17-09, 03:44 PM

This system is 38 - 16 (+/- 1 or 2) IF you played without buying points you'd have gone 32 - 22. If you dedicate your roll to the system you can start betting to win 25 for your A bet (with NO simultaneous series). However, if this is all you have then you will most likely be playing other games.

If this is the case I'd say just include the games in your regular plays. If you mix them in right you'll be successful. Otherwise you really need more $$ to be successful long term.

Dexter · 01-17-09, 06:42 PM

jmorrison - looking at the upcoming "A" bet plays, the following look to be locked in:

-suns 1/18
-cavs 1/19
-mavs 1/19
-nets 1/21

*now the wizards begin a 4 game west coast trip on 1/19, but they currently have only a 2-16 road record (worst in the east) your pdf mentions worst road record in "the league" - so i'm assuming that means the nba, and right now the thunder have a worse % at 2-17. how are you approaching this series?